Erick San Juan

In the Cross Hairs

2012-02-14T03:20:00.000-08:00

In the Cross Hairs
By Erick San Juan

The presence of the so called smaller military base in the country may it be real or virtual, the bottom line here is – we are in the cross hairs of Uncle Sam’s frenemies (friends and/or enemies). Any eventualities will put us in grave danger if our leaders will not be wary.

I have written several articles before as a warning of a possible conflict in the region courtesy of a leadership that continues to kowtow to a perceived master. Here we go again, as Washington tries to make ends meet and at the same time wanted to remain a superpower in the Asia-Pacific region, saw the opportunity of increasing its military presence here via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).

Actually, the US doesn’t need a new base because they have been using the strategic parts of our country in our military camps as their portable bases with the blessing from our leaders. If before they had the Subic Bay and the Clark Airfield, now through the VFA, they are everywhere and thanks to 'Balikatan', they can have their exercises everywhere, anywhere too. That is why, we also have a virtual sovereignty because the whole country was turned into Uncle Sam’s military base.

“For the Philippine government to give more than what we have already acceded to the US within the Visiting Forces Agreement would be counter-productive and a step towards infringing the sovereignty of our country,” San Juan Cong. JV Ejercito said.

That is the sad part, when we have given everything as a loyal friend and ally and yet we are treated as beggars and not as such. We never learn.

FMF and PHL Military Modernization

Foreign Military Financing (FMF) is a critical foreign policy tool for promoting U.S. interests around the world by ensuring that coalition partners and friendly foreign governments are equipped and trained to work toward common security goals and share burdens in joint missions. (Source: US State Dept.)

Sounds good.

By increasing demand for U.S. systems, FMF also contributes to a strong U.S. defense industrial base, an important element of U.S. national defense strategy that reduces cost for Department of Defense acquisitions and secures more jobs for American workers. (Ibid)

Stating the facts here, do we have to be grateful to the American government? The rhetoric and doublespeak of Andrew Shapiro, the assistant secretary for political-military affairs, when he said. “We continue to provide foreign military financing... it’s a challenging budget environment in Washington, however the Philippines is a priority.” Correction, we are not in the priority list! The mere fact that Shapiro said in Washington DC that the Philippine wish list to obtain a squadron of F-16 to improve it's defense capability was not discussed.(PhilStar Feb.11,2012)

FMF provides grants for the acquisition of U.S. defense equipment, services and training, which promotes U.S. national security by contributing to regional and global stability, etc….. (Ibid) So it’s a big 'BS' to say that we are buying these so called military (junk) hardwares to modernize and secure our territory. It is very clear it’s for Washington’s benefits more than our country’s. Translation – we are fueling the American economy and giving them jobs while our country is suffering from hunger and depriving the poor from the much needed social services.

Imagine, we bought the “junk” stripped of its important features: sensors, communications and electronics equipment, and close-in weapons system for P450 million pesos. And now as if begging them to return the features, they have to think about it for reconsideration? Bull----!

If PNoy will not use his 'coconut' and continue to impress his master and be a slave forever, please do it alone and don't drag the whole nation. For eventually we will not be in the cross hairs anymore, we will be in the middle of the crossfire!

Please wake up!

Let's Get Our Acts Together! by Erick San Juan

2012-02-06T20:35:00.001-08:00

Let's Get Our Acts Together! by Erick San Juan

Americans are our friends. But, let us all be wary every time Uncle Sam’s top officials and representatives visit the country. . .

In May of last year, I wrote about the “visit” of US Senators Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) and William Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi) to the country for a “possible return of the US naval base in Subic.” Of course, the US embassy here denied this and that the visit was “to see the economic progress in the Subic Freeport area that has been made over the years and to ask how the US can collaborate.”
And, could it be that the said visit of the two elder senators from the US Senate Appropriations committee was to test the water, so to speak of what could be the reaction of the populace?

It has been ten months since that visit (translation - ocular inspection) and there seems to be a follow-up on the matter now that the Pentagon is seeking to cut about $490 billion from projected defense spending over a decade.

"The Obama administration now intends to send about 4,500 US Marines stationed in Japan to Guam and to rotate an additional 4,000 through Australia, Subic Bay and perhaps a smaller base in the Philippines and Hawaii.", according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plan hasn’t been announced. (Source: Manila Standard Today 2/4/2012)

Now that the cat is out of the bag, for some, this could be a new development but for us who is keenly observing the confluence of events, this is not new.

As I have said in my last guesting (last Friday night) over at Global News Network of Destiny Cable at the show of Mentong Laurel, US troops never left and they are using our military camps as portable bases via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). In this way, they are actually saving a lot of dollars because in reality the annual joint military exercises has benefitted them a lot more than our Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

Actually that “smaller base” in the south has been there as the aftermath of Bush’s synthetic war on terror. And now, according to reports, Uncle Sam will send its marines and navy men in Subic Bay on rotation with its other allies.

Floating Base

Speaking of portable base, Washington has plans of deploying of what they call “floating base”, first in the Middle East this summer. According to news release from the New York Times online dated 1/27/2012 - The conversion of the Ponce, which had been scheduled for retirement, would be an interim step to providing the military with its first afloat staging base.

The Pentagon’s new budget proposals, unveiled Thursday, included money to turn a freighter hull into a full-time floating base that could be moved around the world for military operations or humanitarian missions.

Seriously? That familiar line again – for humanitarian missions?

Is there anything new?

Methinks that this upcoming floating base will visit our ports in no time at all once it sails and could possibly bring more headaches in this side of the Pacific than for humanitarian reasons.

This writer has been consistently warning this administration to be cautious in dealing with foreign friends and/or allies because historically we have been shortchanged by leaders who thinks more for what’s in it for them than for what the country will gain for such agreements. I hope, if not the President himself, maybe the people in his loop will guide his decisions when it comes to national security.

Let us not forget the warning of Sen. Miriam Santiago that we might be the “lightning rod” in the region if we will not be careful enough to realize that we are actually attracting more enemies of Uncle Sam in the process.

Let's get our acts together!

Hail, The "Guns" All Here! By Erick San Juan

2012-01-30T20:27:00.001-08:00

Hail, the “guns” all here! With the coming flotilla of US warships to our sea lanes, with advance party docked in Cebu, Mindanao and in Northern Luzon plus the arrival of a Russian destroyer, Udaloy (a large anti-submarine ship) doing a port call in Manila as a friendship visit, what do they know that we don’t know?

We don’t want to be an alarmist, but with the turn of events, we are like a huge magnet attracting negative eventualities that might lead to a regional (possibly global) conflict.

One negative comment came from the editorial of the Global Times, an English-language Chinese newspaper which is a subsidiary of the state-run People’s Daily :

China should impose “sanctions’’ on the Philippines after it offered to allow more US troops on its soil, Chinese state media said Sunday, amid growing tension over disputed waters in the South China Sea.

Due to our country’s openness to Uncle Sam’s promises of military modernization, we tend to project an image of being confrontational rather than using diplomacy in the midst of tension in the disputed area in the South China Sea. But do we have a choice?

MDT and VFA

Even the so-called modernization is but acquiring second-hand (junk) military equipments, what more can we ask? We are captive of the big brother’s whims under an old treaty – the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) which is the mother of the Visiting Forces Agreement(VFA). Just like the ongoing story that US rules out new military bases in the Philippines. What “bases” are we still talking about when in fact they are using our military facilities at less expense including external security given by our camp commanders. Try visiting one of our camps where the US have support groups in it. So the statement that US will be back and renew its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, that’s a big 'BS' because they never left.

Their presence in our country, particularly in the south is an epic example that they never left and was enhanced by the so-called war on terror and has used the pretext of a terror threat from international terror groups like al-Qaida and Jemaah Islamiyah. Like the news that came out recently that a unit of US coast guard just finished training their Filipino counterparts. Translation – there’s now an assurance that they will have a full control of our sea lanes and transshipments. It seems that Uncle Sam’s grip is getting tighter as we speak even though they announced a large budget cut in their defense spending. As I have written before (my past articles can be read at www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) the Philippines is that loyal-ally-turned-witting-tool to a possible war we never wanted.

Our good secretary of National Defense, Voltaire Gazmin said the other day that with or without Spratlys row, the military has to modernize, I agree. But to whose expense? It will be better for our defense establishment to procure armaments through ex-deal instead of us getting loans and incur more debts which we can't pay. We have to be wary of the Businessworld report January 31,2012 that our growth is seen at lower end of the government forecast and SWS report that there's an increase in hunger which should be addressed immediately than provoking a war.

Together with other patriots of this nation, we uphold the call for the abrogation of the VFA and an overhaul of the MDT wherein a new treaty could be drawn that is more balanced and not biased to the stronger nation.

We were shortchanged in the past by our leaders who are more of a collaborator than a negotiator that will bargain for what is due us rather than always bowing to "big brother". We cannot blame other foreign diplomats of taking advantage of situations when dealing with our leaders, the fault is with the people running this government, which oftentimes think “what’s in it for me” rather than what's due us as a sovereign state.

In this turbulent times that we are in, the PNoy administration should rethink its strategy when it comes to geopolitics. We must gather our acts together and come up with a plan that is long term and will solve the country’s domestic problem instead of kowtowing to a perceived master that is dragging the entire nation to a conflict of their own doing. Without US support, who could have think that we have the capabilities to confront China? Wake up PNoy!

The Possibility of a Regional Conflict

2012-01-24T21:44:00.000-08:00

The Possibility of a Regional Conflict
By Erick San Juan

The nation is too focus on the developments in the impeachment trial of CJ Corona that there are issues being overlooked that is of great significance to our national security.

One of which is the tenth anniversary of Operation ENDURING FREEDOM – Philippines wherein the administration during that time has joined the Bush doctrine in his war on terror and has dragged the whole Filipino race to be on the coalition of the willing against the so-called terrorists. President George Bush Jr. even designated the former president, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as the Asian coordinator in this synthetic war on terror. And the rest is history.

A historical event that has put us up to this moment, under the whim of Uncle Sam, when they want our support to stage a war against a supposed adversary. But not this time, when our military thrust was changed from counter-insurgency to confrontation with China. This is a major change that may eventually drag us to a regional conflict that will leave us (as always) shortchanged in the process.

As what the politicians from the US Congress said, "The United States plans to increase the joint military exercises with the Philippines."

The announcement was made after Arizona Senator John McCain and three other American senators, Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire visited the country.

The move forms part of the US' intention to increase its naval and air assets in the Asia Pacific Region.

According to Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, the joint military exercises will "enhance" Philippines' experience, capabilities, and abilities to protect its territorial integrity. But this does not mean that the US is establishing bases in the country. (Source: Sun Star Manila online 1/18/12)

Although as early as January 5, a press release from the Phil. Information Agency (PIA) said from Palawan that -- The Western Command (WesCom) has confirmed the holding of a bigger joint military exercises under the RP-US Balikatan in April this year. But why was it advanced possibly by mid Februrary or March?

The Balikatan is an annual RP-US bilateral military humanitarian assistance and training exercise under the auspices of the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Visiting Forces Agreement. Again, the government through the Presidential Commission on the VFA (PCVFA) particularly the DFA will hold talks with the US regarding the review of the 1999 VFA. We heard this before, so what else is new?

Such “agreements” only benefits Uncle Sam more than the Filipino people. We are not fully against the Americans helping us but again, they should give what is due us and respect the public’s sentiments when it comes to decisions that will affect the country’s security.

Enter the Water Dragon in “Hot Water”

Uncle Sam’s intervention in the Asia-Pacific region is only intensifying the tension in and around the contested areas in the South China Sea, worst it will use the Balikatan exercises to hold the military drills in Palawan near the disputed areas.

In June of last year, it was reported that China has started its drilling operation in the South China Sea and early this month from Da Nang (AsiaNews) – A Chinese official said that China will soon send a huge ship, the Marine Oil and Gas 708, and a huge oil rig, the Marine 981, to explore for oil and gas in deep waters in 2012, in the South East Sea (or South China Sea as the Chinese call it). However, he did not say in which part of the sea. Built in China, the Marine Oil 708 can explore oil and gas at a depth of 3,000 m and drill at 600 m under the sea. The ship is 105 m long and 23.4 m wide. It is equipped with advanced probes and can withstand wave level 12.

The huge oil rig Marine 981 is also preparing to drill an oil well in deep waters in the South East Sea in 2012. The huge drilling rig can operate at depths of 3,000 m and drill at depths of 10,000 m under sea. Its operational capacity is more than 18 times greater than existing oil rigs.

In the past few decades, the possibility of oil deposits in the South East Sea has unleashed a dispute over sovereignty (of the Spratly and Paracel Islands) involving China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines cannot easily explore oil and gas at such depths.

“We always should come first, when competing with the resources. The resources are not able to re-create as well as not infinite in the disputed maritime area,” said a Chinese Communist official, head of the Centre for Energy and Economy Research of a University.

Claimants to the disputed areas in the SCS should be wary now that the Dragon has actually entered the hot waters of the SCS.

Could a regional conflict not far behind now that Washington has already solidified the circle around China through its allies?

Let's watch closely the possible confluence of events soon to unfold.

May God bless the Philippines!

Which Side to Take?

2012-01-18T07:39:00.001-08:00

Which Side to Take?
By Erick San Juan

Once again the country is in the wait and see mode for the next episode of the impeachment trial of the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice Corona. But this writer’s concern are the events that occurred prior to the scheduled impeachment day.

On the eve of the Feast of the Black Nazarene, a possible terror threat was announced by the President himself that according to Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, the reliability of the intelligence report was so high.

After tracking down the possible terrorists’ hideouts in the metropolis and found nothing, the heightened alert was withdrawn. The fiesta ended peacefully. Although the terror alert stays.

But the fear sowed upon the populace was still there and for many who are taken for a ride still believes the synthetic terror warning.

Then the weekend after that, another rumor was floated that there was a threat upon the president’s security. So, what else is new?

Uncle Sam’s Doublespeak

Last Friday the 13th we can’t help but notice the statement made by the US Ambassador, Harry Thomas (that appeared in the newspaper the following day) that the US is not taking sides on the issue of the South China Sea between the Philippines and China. Whatever happened to the good old big brother protecting his little brother and loyal ally in this part of the region?

The statement made was a sudden turnaround from what used to be the usual stand of Washington when it comes to protecting its allies most especially the Philippines. What is confusing here is the mere fact that Washington is giving its support by granting (even with some second hand and almost junk) military hardware to our AFP and yet they are not taking sides. Obviously, by helping Washington’s allies in the region militarily, is actually “taking the side” of its allies against an adversary.

Unfortunately, Uncle Sam is using rhetoric and doublespeak when former Republican Party presidential candidate John McCain said Washington should also turn to diplomacy to help Asean members sort out their own disputes and “establish a more unified front.”

McCain said the US should help members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations like the Philippines develop and deploy an early warning system and coastal vessels in the disputed waters.

He said, the US should let other countries know “which claims the US accepts, which ones we do not, and what actions we are prepared to support,” especially in defense of the Philippines, a treaty ally. (Source: Philippine Daily Inquirer by Jerry E. Esplanada)
So, which is which? Is Uncle Sam with the SCS claimants’ side or with Beijing?

Financial Armageddon stronger than a Nuclear Holocaust

At this point in time where bullying thy neighbor will not produce any positive results and China bashing only worsens the already tensed situation in the South China Sea, Washington should rethink its strategy. What if Beijing will retaliate in the most unusual way?

Uncle Sam should take the cue from Paul Craig Roberts’ analysis in his article - The Next War on Washington's Agenda, to wit :

Washington is getting all of us in over our heads. Washington has declared the “Asia-Pacific” and the South China Sea to be areas of “America’s national interest.” What sense does this make? It makes the same sense as if China declared the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea to be areas of China’s national interest.

Washington has deployed 2,500 Marines, promising more to come to Australia in order to do what? Protect Australia from China or occupy Australia? Encircle China with 2,500 Marines? It would not mean anything to China if Washington deployed 25,000 Marines in Australia.

When you get right down to it, Washington’s tough talk is nothing but a silly pointless provocation of Washington’s largest creditor. What if Washington’s 'hawks' idiocy causes China to worry that Washington and its UK and European puppets will seize its bank balances and refuse to honor China’s holdings of $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds? Will China pull its balances from the weak US, UK, and European banks? Will China decide to strike first, not with nuclear weapons, but by selling its $1 trillion in Treasury bonds all at once?

It would be cheaper than war.

The Federal Reserve would have to quickly print another $1 trillion dollars with which to buy the bonds, or US interest rates would shoot up. What would China do with the $1 trillion in newly printed paper? In my opinion, China would dump it all at once in the currency market, because the Federal Reserve cannot print euros, UK pounds, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, Russian rubles, and Chinese yuan with which to buy up its newly printed currency.

Which side to take?

A question for our leaders in this exciting times wherein any moment now, an event can trigger a regional conflict or a full blown global war. It may be nuclear or financial global disaster. Our leaders must always take the side of the nation’s interest and safety – no matter what. Let us pray harder that such unfortunate event will not happen.

Shifting Gear and Arms Race

2012-01-09T18:03:00.000-08:00

Shifting Gear and Arms Race
By Erick San Juan

In the preamble to the new plan, “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense”, Obama writes:

As we end today's wars and reshape our armed forces, we will ensure that our military is agile, flexible, and ready for the full range of contingencies. In particular, we will continue to invest in the capabilities critical to future success, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; counterterrorism; countering weapons of mass destruction; operating in anti-access environments; and prevailing in all domains, including cyber. (Published at CommonDreams.org 1/5/12)

What we are about to witness with this “new plan” is actually a Bush Doctrine – extended play, and to think that Obama is far better than George W. Bush Jr., think again. The same ingredients for possible regional conflict (or another world war) are present – counterterrorism, preemptive strike, regime change, WMD (weapons of mass destruction), etc., to make sure that their kind of democracy is in place and working to their advantage.

In his January 5 Pentagon news conference, President Barack Obama also mentioned from this new strategy that the United States would strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region while cutting billions of dollars from overall defense spending. Translation – a world war is still queued and a much needed regional conflict is not far behind.

As the op-ed by China's state-run news agency, Xinhua warned the Obama administration of adventurism in the Asia-Pacific.

"The United States should learn from its past painful experiences and play a constructive role in the Asia-Pacific instead of recklessly practicing militarism," the article read. "After all, might does not always make right."

The article notes that Washington can play a constructive role in stability in the region provided it's "free from a cold war style, zero-sum mentality."

For Beijing, such posturing of Washington in this part of the globe will not help in achieving regional stability, worse, US is allegedly provoking more tension to the already tensed atmosphere, especially in the South China Sea. But it seems that China is also engaged in a major military build up while keeping the secret that it's economy is also reaching it's limits, according to economist Nicholas Lardy of Peterson Institute. Even Robert Samuelson of Washington Post commented that Europe and US slump weakened China's trade and will achieve growth by becoming even more predatory toward other countries.

Unfortunately, we are in that region and our present leaders has been witting tools in this game of saber rattling. Our leaders never learned from history and even showing an inkling of repeating history when we were dragged and shortchanged in a war we never dreamt of joining.

By openly showing support for Uncle Sam and requesting for additional military equipments like the squadron of F-16, we are really looking for trouble by programming our punches.

Let us be reminded of Halford Mackinder's "Heartland" theory. Mackinder said "Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island (Eurasia)."

Mackinder's followers have applied this strategy to Asia, and believed that controlling South China Sea will make the U.S. air force and navy command East Asia, and consequently command the "World Island".

Can we now clearly say that the reason behind US 'Return-to-Asia' strategy is to intensify "security rebalancing" efforts on China, taking comprehensive measures to suppress China, and instigating its allies to pay, contribute and appear to restrain China? (What is behind US 'Return-to-Asia' strategy? by Lin Zhiyuan, People's Daily Online published @ Global Research 12/29/11)

We took the bait of joining the arms race in the midst of calamity-stricken provinces where we can’t afford to address the perennial problems that has brought about natural and man-made disasters. It is about time to rethink the country’s priorities. Wake up and there is no fun when most Filipinos are suffering and struggling to survive in their day to day living while the war president (in the making) is kowtowing to a perceived master.

Playing Gods by Erick San Juan

2012-01-04T17:31:00.001-08:00

As we entered the very controversial year 2012, the worldwide web of information was filled with different views on the events that might happen in December this year, as the end of another age. Although, some people find this so called “end of the world” as a positive event in human history, still everything is uncertain.

But one thing I know that is certain – that all kinds of war are being pushed to pressure everyone to go to a real war. We now hear of cyber war, biological, thermo-nuclear and weather wars, etc. Through the advance technology (man has mastered over the years), we can’t help but speculate that every time there is a big natural calamity, we somehow think that it is actually a man-made disaster.

The recent earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, hurricane, tornadoes that devastated properties and killed thousands of human lives are somewhat attributed to weather engineering. If we thought that huge disasters can only be seen in movies, well think again. I was given several documents by my long time radio program avid listener, Rels Octaviano, a geo-physical analyst and researcher about HAARP. The HAARP or High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program, is allegedly a joint research venture funded by the United States Air Force, the United States Navy, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the University of Alaska. The project was started way back in 1993, with the aim of analyzing the ionosphere, in order to assess the potential of developing it to further enhance the radio communication and surveillance technology. The HAARP Research Station - the facility where this research is carried out, is located at a US Air Force site in Alaska.

As a part of this project, a high powered radio frequency transmitter - the Ionospheric Research Instrument (IRI) also referred to as 'ionosphere heaters', is used to excite a specific portion of the ionosphere for a temporary period. Other than the IRI, this project also includes the use of equipment like a UHF radar and a fluxgate magnetometer to study the physical changes that occur in the excited portion of the ionosphere. Even though, several ionosphere heaters exist in various parts of the world, this is by far the largest and most powerful among them.

The allegation that the high frequency radio waves alter the core of the planet is yet another infamous attribute of the project HAARP conspiracy. Earthquakes are believed to be triggered by the alteration of the core by the activities carried out in this alleged research project. Some also alleged that the HAARP is a military mega-project in disguise of a research center, which primarily acts as a surveillance system, but also has the ability of destroying the aircraft in midair. Some conspiracy theorists also claim that the radio waves emitted by HAARP can result in adverse effects on the human mind and body.

The HAARP Research Station is a high security zone wherein unauthorized entry is strictly prohibited. This adds to the mystery surrounding the research project and is the driving factor behind a range of HAARP conspiracy theories. In short, the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), reportedly, has the ability to take down an aircraft, manipulate weather and trigger natural calamities, and all these possibilities have put it under the scanner as one of the most infamous conspiracy of the world. (By Abhijit Naik, HAARP Conspiracy @ Buzzle.com last Updated: 9/22/2011)
This is only one part of the possible explanation as to why the world is experiencing certain disasters. What I am worried about is the confluence of events that are somehow in tune of what are stated in the Bible. I have been discussing these things in my radio program (DWSS 1494khz, daily@5:30pm) courtesy of my listeners who also happen to be studying and doing a lot of research in the said field for several years now.

All the events in recent times has been manipulated and/or influenced by some evil geniuses who wants to play God and mess around with Mother Nature. It doesn’t matter to them if such actions will produce disastrous reactions that can kill thousands of precious lives in the process. There are a lot of man-made disasters by design only to achieve their goal of depopulation (or what some may call – to annihilate useless eaters of this planet). But in the end, God will prevail and our world will be cleansed…

Let us be hopeful and have faith in what we believe in. Work harder and be good, do good and eventually we will feel good towards every person we will meet in this world. A hopeful new year to all of us!

The Program is On!

2011-12-26T22:01:00.001-08:00

The Program is On! by Erick San Juan

"A good neighbor is better than a far-off brother." – Old Chinese Saying

China has renewed what it has been doing for some years now – its peaceful rise to power and applying soft power to it's Asian neighbors in the area where it's rival power (the US) in the region is not doing. Like the old Chinese saying, Beijing wants to project the good neighbor image and makes the rest of the Asian neighborhood happy, being the recipient of a neighbor’s good deeds.

Not until the past weeks, where there were series of military exercises and particularly, the display of naval power by both Beijing and Washington in and around the disputed areas of the South China Sea. This time, such events are making the Asian neighborhood and the rest of the world nervous.

As if waiting for a big event that can trigger a regional conflict, the world is in the wait and see mode and hoping that somehow things will be resolved for the better. Well not here in our own backyard, where we are witnessing a possible war president-in-the-making.

After kowtowing to a perceived master at the last Asian Summit, the next move of President Aquino is to acquire a squadron or 12 F-16 fighter jets from the United States. In the midst of calamity after calamity where hundreds of Filipino lives were involved, in a time of great suffering among our fellowmen in the south, the palace occupant is thinking of war.

We will be expecting more rains in the future because of the La Nina phenomenon and the acquisition of equipments that will be valuable to rescue precious lives should be the top priority of the present administration.

Instead of preparing for war over the Spratlys, which will not benefit us and will only push us further to become the magnet of the far-off brother’s enemies in the region. And, for someone who has been following the confluence of events here and around the world, this writer can’t help but notice the absence of the US troops in Sendong rescue (search and retrieval) and relief operations. This is something ominous that in case of war, Malacanang needs to make a request first before Washington act. Where is the so-called automatic response and extended hands of support from a brother?

What we have been witnessing for the recent months is the prodding of Uncle Sam for the nation-states in Asia to keep on purchasing military equipments in spite of the fact that we Filipinos need other much important purchases that will help us economically. Methinks that if we will continue this buying spree, we will end up broke and need to borrow again and again to pay for a war that we don’t need. Where is the sense of priority of our nation’s leaders? Harder times are coming. Will such provocation push us to a regional conflict or worse, cripple us more in the process?

The program is on, whether we like it or not, it could be delayed, but can we stop it? That’s all but the fact remain, the proxy war is inevitable. And sadly, not one person in the government could see this coming and make efforts to prevent it. Instead, we could be the witting tools in the game of war of the giants. A very perilous new year coming!

God forbid!

2011-12-19T23:40:00.000-08:00

Who Will Defend This Nation?
By Erick San Juan

Three articles ago (my articles can be read at www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com), we wrote about the possible shift of our military from counter-insurgency to confrontation with China. Based on several articles that we got from different sources like the EIR, the US military presence here will greatly influence our military’s thrust.

This only shows that we don’t own and control the country’s defense goal and only follows the dictate of a perceived master’s plan.

From the interview of Global Times reporter Yu Jincui to Fan Gaoyue, a senior colonel in the People's Liberation Army and research fellow at the PLA Academy of Military Science, clearly stated that -

"Air Sea Battle" (ASB) is a US strategic plan that envisions China as the main opponent. In a recent press conference, Spokesman of China's Ministry of National Defense Geng Yansheng stated that the plan is nothing new and is the result of a cold war mentality. Why has the US developed such a plan? How should China respond?

According to the 2010 US Quadrennial Defense Review, the ASB concept is intended to defeat adversaries across the range of military operations, including adversaries equipped with sophisticated anti-access and area denial capabilities. The concept will address how air and naval forces will integrate capabilities across all operational domains to counter growing challenges to the US.

Although there is no official statement that the plan mainly targets China, the intention is obvious. Confronted by a rising China, the US is panicky. It worries China may replace it as the biggest economy and challenge its global leadership.

We never get tired reminding our leaders to always be wary in dealing with our foreign friends, this administration must not repeat history of kowtowing to the whims of the big brother and dragged the whole nation to a war in the process.

The US Air Sea Battle (ASB) plan will not be implemented without the big help of its allies. It was reported over the weekend that the US Navy said it would station several new coastal combat ships in Singapore and perhaps in the Philippines in coming years, moves likely to fuel China's fears of being encircled and pressured in the South China Sea dispute.

Regional defense analysts said the ships were small, but agreed the symbolism of the moves, which come after Washington announced it was increasing its engagement in Asia, would upset Beijing. (Reuters)

The fact that President Noynoy supported President Obama at the last East Asia Summit can we therefore conclude that PNoy could be the next war president? After all, he even ordered the newly appointed Armed Forces chief-of-staff Lt. Gen. Jessie Dellosa to prepare for war amid the country’s present rift with China in relation to its claims over some portions of Spratlys Islands.

In his speech during the AFP change of command at Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City, President Aquino said that in the past, the military’s only concern are internal threats such as the New People’s Army and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) but with the emerging external challenges, the new AFP chief should also be ready to respond against external aggression.

“Whereas before, the focus of the AFP is on internal threats such as the NPA and the MILF, but nowadays we have to be prepared against external challenges, especially because there are those claiming our own territories,” Aquino said.

Although he did not refer to any country, Aquino was obviously referring to China which has traded accusations with the Philippines of encroaching into their respective territorial claims. (Virgilio J. Bugaoisan, The Daily Tribune 12/13/2011)

The signs are here and so does the signs of an impending war through a regional conflict courtesy of an ally. All by design.

In this holiday season of peace and hope, let us all pray harder that true lasting peace may come to the world.

Let's Get Our Acts Together by Erick San Juan

2011-12-12T07:32:00.000-08:00

As we witness the events unfolding for the past weeks, there seem to be no changes at all on the way things are going towards a possible conflict between Beijing and Washington. To wit from the Global Times, President Hu Jintao's speech Tuesday to the Chinese Navy representatives caught the attention of foreign media. It focused on two lines, that China must "accelerate the transformation of its navy" and "make extended preparations for military combat."

The instructions Hu gave to the Navy are hardly different to what any country's leader or commander-in-chief may give to his military. That is the routine requirement for any military force, especially those of a developing country.

Any country should look at this from a normal perspective, otherwise they may overinterpret China's military moves.

And then on the following day, December 7, China and the United States held their annual defense consultative talks (DCT) as planned in Beijing, despite recent frictions including the US arms sales to Taiwan.

It is important to note that in September, Washington announced the $5.85 billion arms sale to Taiwan and the upgrades of its 145 fighter jets. The arms sale was a decision made by the US State Department and not what others would think was done by the Pentagon. Why is this so? Another angel and demon operation?

"The fact that the American delegation which include officials from the US State Department shows that Washington too does not merely consider the DCT to be military talks.", said Yuan Peng, director of the American Studies Center at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. "Nobody wants a conflict, and the US cannot afford a conflict with China now.", Peng added.

The Defense Consultative Talks which was established in 1997, is the highest-level bilateral dialogue between the two militaries. (China Daily)

It is very clear that cold war or not, the rest of the Asia Pacific is on the look out for a possible scenario that will trigger an attack on China or the US that will start the war.

As these events are unfolding, we can’t help asking ourselves, what are we doing as a nation in the middle of two conflicting elephants?

At the Global News Network-Destiny channel talk show of Mentong Laurel last Friday night, me and retired navy Commodore Rex Robles discussed the possibility of a world war and dicussed our readiness to such situation. There were hanging questions (due of lack of time) left unanswered for the mean time. Is the present administration ready for such eventuality? Do we have people who have expertise in geopolitics and foreign policy that can address problems that may arise when such event happens?

Yes, this administration seems juggling among none issues that had to be left to some cabinet members expertise to resolve. Our government should be ready economically and strategically in the field of geopolitics. Time is of the essence here and mere 'kowtowing' to a perceived 'master' is a no-no. We are facing an impending global conflict. We should think out of the box and think the unthinkable. We have to get our acts together and come up with concrete strategies that will help the country in the process. If we will just rely and put our fate to the 'big brother', we will be shortchanged again and find ourselves in the losing end.

For a change, this present administration should not make the same mistake committed by our past leaders, where they let the country be dragged to a war that we never wanted.

God save the Philippines and let's have happy holidays!

Cold War to World War? by Erick San Juan

2011-12-06T21:08:00.001-08:00

"If China's core interests, such as its sovereignty, national security, and unity are intruded on, a military conflict will be unavoidable." This was the statement by Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, the Deputy Secretary General of the China Society of Military Science, after Pres. Obama’s announcement of the new military basing operations in Australia. (People's Daily, Nov. 17)

This statement came about after the so-called summit that was supposed to create an atmosphere of cooperation and finding peaceful solutions to some issues especially the disputed area in the South China Sea. Just like what I wrote in my last article (www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) the event was more confrontational rather than what it has projected to the world.

The planned permanent military basing by US in Australia was another irritant to US-China relations, to note: A remark by Defense Ministry spokesman, Geng Yansheng, was China's strongest reaction yet to the announcement by President Barack Obama in November of the US plan to strengthen military ties with Australia and to eventually station 2,500 Marines on Australia's remote northern coast. To Quote-

"We believe this is all a manifestation of a Cold War mentality," Mr. Geng said at a monthly press briefing, according to text of his remarks posted on the Defense Ministry's website. "We hope relevant parties do more things that are beneficial for the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, rather than the opposite." (Source: The Wall Street Journal-Asia online 12/1/11)

The Cold War was the most important political and diplomatic issue of the later half of the 20th Century. The main Cold War enemies were the United States and the Soviet Union. The Cold war got it's name because both sides were afraid of fighting each other directly. In such a "hot war," nuclear weapons might destroy everything. So, instead, they fought each other indirectly. They played havoc with conflicts in different parts of the world. They also used words as weapons. They threatened and denounced each other. Or, they tried to make each other look foolish. (Source: globalsecurity.org)

If this “cold war mentality” will continue, could it be that the real “shooting war” is not far behind?

The blame game worsened when last October, US lawmaker Michael Turner, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee focusing on strategic weapons and other security programs voiced concern about an extensive tunnel complex designed to house China's nuclear missiles.(www.breitbart.com) "The tunnels would allow China to launch a nuclear counter-attack if it was hit by a nuclear strike.", said Mark Schneider, senior analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy. It was corroborated by Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center. He said that the tunnel complex could allow the Chinese army to conceal its weapons. The plot thickens when CNN TV last December 1, featured some Georgetown University students in Washington DC who have blown the lid off one of China's best kept military secrets that it's nuclear arsenal could be up to 40 times bigger than thought. According to London Telegraph, Philip Karber and Nick Yarosh of Georgetown University said that China could have as many as 3,000 nuclear warheads,far more than the current estimates of between 80 to 400.

ATS quoted China's army general, Chi Haotian, the vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission when he said," We have made a tremendous effort to construct 'The Great Wall Project', to build up, along our coastal and land frontiers as well as around large and medium-sized cities , a solid underground 'great wall' that can withstand a nuclear war." With the events unfolding gearing towards a global war, the rest of the world especially nations in Asia Pacific, should find a way to avert another world war. Unfortunately, our country’s leadership did not see this coming and lacked the expertise in the field of geopolitics when it gave its support to Uncle Sam at the East Asia Summit.

Actually, such action virtually dragged us into supporting a possible regional conflict that might trigger another world war. Again, we will be part of a war that we never wanted. We hope that this week's US-Sino annual defense talks will produce positive results and adhere to peaceful resolutions on major defense and military issues.

Anyway, the Filipinos will never postpone Christmas festivities come what may. Happy Holidays to all!

The Real Intention

2011-11-29T02:00:00.001-08:00

The Real Intention
By Erick San Juan

There was too much rhetoric and doublespeak from the leaders that met in the past summits and forum, may it be on the economic, political or military issues. From someone who has been keen in analyzing the global geopolitics, this could all lead to something confrontational rather than the desired goal of the region’s stability and development.

Our country in particular was visited by the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for what she emphasized as commemoration of our long-time friendship with the US through the Mutual Defense Treaty’s 60th anniversary by signing another agreement, the "Manila Declaration".

The “Declaration” was signed by Sec. Clinton and our Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert Del Rosario last November 16 and has set forth a shared vision for strategic, political, economic and people-to-people cooperation plus the so-called “partnership for growth”. But why only now? The RP-US Mutual Defense Treaty was signed in August 1951 and obviously the celebration was three months delayed.

Then, the news of US President Barack Obama’s visit to Australia also to celebrate the 60th anniversary of US and Australia alliance. Just a coincidence?

The confluence of events that the world is witnessing is quite scary as we connect the dots. We are now closer to the actual confrontation, the fact that 'Uncle Sam' is solidifying the circle around China.

To cite the 'globalresearch.ca', "In an effort to counterbalance China’s growing military prowess, the U.S. is working to station naval and Marine forces in the Asia-Pacific region."

The most controversial move, as far as the Chinese are concerned, is the decision to base some of the U.S. Navy’s most modern combat ships, littoral combat ships, in Singapore, which possesses strategic importance for shipping.

The US Department of Defense is still negotiating with Singapore officials to station littoral combat ships at the seven year old Changi Naval Base. The vessels can handle missions ranging from anti-piracy to submarine tracking to special operations.

In addition to the naval plans, the U.S. is preparing to permanently base anywhere from 250 to 2,500 Marines in northern Australia. The decision will allow the U.S. to more quickly deploy front-line military forces in the region in the event of a crisis. The U.S. has already deployed anti-missile systems in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. (Stop NATO website and articles: http://rickrozoff.wordpress.com)

And as for the Philippines, the 'Big Brother' is always in full support of our military’s modernization and actually gave us the World War2 second refurbished, refitted Coast Guard cutter and a request for the third one is not far behind.

PNoy’s administration should be very careful in making decisions when it comes to taking sides in this grand design of the big powers in placing their pawns in the game of war.

The design made by past American defense secretaries made us the only strategic nation that is very crucial in this imaginary circle around China. And the latest article that we got from the Executive Intelligence Review (EIR) states, "that the US has covertly used the Philippine Trench to conceal the US nuclear submarine fleet. The Trench which lies within the RP’s territorial waters in the Pacific, is one of the only sea trenches in the world deep enough to conceal submarines from detection. Soon, the US military presence in the Philippines will shift from counter-insurgency to confrontation with China.

The Philippine Deep or the Mindanao Trench will be beneficial to the American plan of setting the arena for a possible conflict. As what some pundits say – 'We are on the eve of a world war." God forbid!

Where Do We Side? by Erick San Juan

2011-11-22T19:46:00.001-08:00

This past week has been quite a handful for President Noynoy as he tackled domestic issues and at the same time had to leave the country for a gathering of world leaders at the East Asia-Asean Summit in Bali, Indonesia. Before that, the conference in Hawaii (APEC) and the meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton here. But at end of the day, that nagging question remains – who benefits?

When US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared in Honolulu earlier that the 21st century will be "America's Pacific century". It is quite clear that in order to implement this is to have a strong leverage in the region. Who will follow their “agenda” is the big question mark. Obviously Sec. Clinton’s visit here was to make sure that the present administration will adhere to Uncle Sam’s plan. Diplomats such as the Secretary of State and the US Ambassador, with their too goody words projecting to the Filipino people and to the world that they will always be on our side are mere rhetoric because reality check and the country’s past experiences – it was the opposite. Remember the Wikileaks report that then US ambassador Kristie Kenney sent through the cable criticizing President Noynoy for being a weak leader? What about the double speak of Secretary Clinton during the meeting with PNoy and she said, " The US does not take any position on any territorial claim." But, Clinton told a forum with young students that Washington is "very strongly against any nation using coercion or intimidation instead of using the law to try to resolve these issues." (Manila Standard 11/17/11)

As what the Daily Tribune observed in its editorial (11/21/11) – “The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit visit of Noynoy in Bali, Indonesia turned out to be only a personal expression of support for the United States military buildup in the region, the announcement of which was timed for the Summit. In sum, that was the only marked achievement of Noynoy in the event which cost the government more than P6 million to undertake. It is not even necessary and may in turn have alienated the Philippines further from its Asean counterparts.”

PNoy has been calling all the claimants to the South China Sea to meet and make a united stand against China for an effort to resolve the issue of their claims to the area. A move that every claimant knows to aggravate the disputes further from resolving. As for China, it reiterated its stand that the issue should be resolved directly between related sovereign countries "through friendly consultation and negotiation."

In a different perspective, that of the big brother’s, such move by PNoy is a welcome act in spite of past bad experiences we had with the US.

With this constant irritation on China, Beijing launched its soft power approach (again) and met with the Asean leaders with a commitment of economic support. Over the weekend with the leaders of Japan and South Korea, China pledged to work on a free trade agreement (FTA) that will serve as a counterbalance to the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Citing the events at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Hawaii, Obama had voiced frustration at China's trade practices and he pushed for a new Asia-Pacific trade deal with some of Beijing's neighbors.

The moves are seen as an attempt to reassert U.S. leadership in the face of China's rising influence around the Pacific Rim and reassure allies such as South Korea and Japan that it would remain a strong counterweight. (Reuters 11/18/11)

But obviously, this move by China will add another irritant on the part of Obama’s economic set up in the region.

The rest of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region should be wary for both US and China's agenda. China is determined to hold on to its claim to the whole South China Sea and a move that is counter to its goal could lead to a possible regional conflict.

Summits and conferences will always be part and parcel in maintaining global peace and economic stability no matter who will benefit most in the process. The most important thing is – as a sovereign country, our leaders must be sensitive enough to put forward what is due us and stand by it with conviction and sincerity. He should first unite the nation. Where do we side?

APEC and EAS-Whose Interest? by Erick San Juan

2011-11-14T06:58:00.001-08:00

It's nice to see and hear nations especially 'factions' among big powers like the U.S. and China having a dialogue with each other during the meeting of world leaders at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Coooperation) in Hawaii recently. This economic conference of nation-states in the Pacific rim is believed by pundits to be all talks, rhetorics and plan but failed to achieve anything since it's birth in 1989.

Despite the call of China's President Hu Jintao that it is important for China and the U.S. to increase their cooperation and U.S. President Barack Obama saying that cooperation between the two countries is vital to their prosperity, both leaders met not to settle things right, not to agree but seems to disagree. In short, there's no meeting of minds.

One example is the "Trans-Pacific Partnership", The U.S. plan to have free trade among member states but the would be economic partnership became a political issue especially when an alliance of nation-states allegedly 'dictated' by the U.S. continue to pressure China to tow the line and stop it's protectionist policy.

China doesn't want to be cowed and accused the U.S. and it's allies of manipulating the rules to their advantage especially in the issue of tariff, trade restrictions,protectionism and currency manipulation.

The U.S.talked about economic integration and liberalization but demands for regulating patents and intellectual property rights. President Barack Obama insisted that China's undervalued currency keep China exports cheaper and the U.S. exports to China more expensive. (Mla. Bulletin, Nov. 14,2011) The two world leaders finished their speeches without addressing their respective concerns.
Nation-states will meet again this week at the 6th East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia. It's composed of 18 Asian nations and India with the United States and Russia as new members. EAS promotes dialogue, cooperation primarily on security-related issues.(Agence France Presse)

According to Pradumna B. Rana of the RSIS, both U.S. and Russia will present both opportunities and challlenges. Rana said that Russia is relatively a peripheral player in the region and it's financial linkages with the rest of EAS countries, although increasing, is still limited.

According to Russian TV through our local Destiny channel, Russia focuses it's attention in taking part in the multilateral regional organizations like the EAS, Apec, Shanghai Initiative, ARF(Asean Regional Forum), DSA( Dialogue on Cooperation in Asia), CICA(Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia), etc. Kremlin will allegedly take an active role to ensure collective partnership in protecting the interests of all country members and strengthen the stability of the region.

Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented that their government adhere to integrate into the political and economic developments in the region but on the regional security and cooperation, Russia will urge the U.S. and restrict Washington in dictating in the region.

The world should be vigilant with this new regional architecture evolving. A checkmate in the offing!

Is The World War 3 Inevitable? by Erick San Juan

2011-11-09T20:18:00.000-08:00

The world is on the brink of another world war. The signature is already there to see. The war clock is on, it's ticking. The 'masterminds' seem to believe that their long range plan of controlling the world will be perfected this time. But the internet which they created became a useful tool not only to the elite but to the world. In seconds, the information coming from a secluded part of the earth can be farmed out worlwide with ease. This is the reason that sooner or later, this fantastic invention will be destroyed by their creator in disguise that the cyber war destroyed the system by implanting their viruses into it.

Though, the globalists want to delay the full destruction of their "Frankenstein" but according to Anthony Wile of the dailybell.com, they can't wait any longer. The elites allegedly need to act fast before a popular concensus forms against them. They cannot stop the massive global networking where the globalists were exposed. They will shut down the internet as soon as possible.

Today, November 9 in America could be the D-day where in a test program will be implemented reportedly by FEMA to make an emergency shutting down of all telecommunication lines, power lines and the internet. Without alarming the people that a strong solar flare, a big asteroid named Yu55 or X1 Elenin, a huge meteor could hit the earth anytime now. This could be the pretext to justify the internets total closure. I have been reminding my radio listeners and readerships to learn from the past mistakes of world leaders . How can one forget a popular quote from a very prominent globalist like David Rockefeller when he said, "We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order." It's very clear that he's talking about an order out of chaos. What will be the intention this time to justify such disorder?

During the first world war, it was justified by the sinking of 'Lusitania' where a lot of Americans were killed. The czars of Russia were overthrown which gave birth to communism and weaken many religions. According to Zen Gardner(infowars.com) the British and the German empires were used to foment this war.

During the second world war, the pretext was the bombing of the Pearl Harbor by the Japanese where American soldiers were the collateral damage which sparked a global armed conflict among nations. It was allegedly fomented by taking advantage of the differences between the fascists and the political zionists. The war was designed according to Gardner to destroy Nazism and strengthen Zionism which gave birth to the State of Israel in Palestine in 1948. Gardner added that international communism became strong enough to balance Christendom. At the Potsdam conference in 1945, a large portion of Europe was reportedly handed over to Soviet Russia while at the aftermath of the war with Japan, it helped to sweep the tide of communism into China.

The book of Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilization could be the 'bible' of the globalists in staging the third world war. All the ingredients in this book have been unfolding like a script produced and directed in Hollywood. This will not just be an economic or military-industrial war. It will involve the main religions of christianity, islam and zionism. It was allegedly designed to mutually destroy all of them in the process. The so called "war on terror" is the globalists tool for fear mongering, to allegedly keep all of us distracted, preoccupied and accept their projected reality. In this world where everything is now interconnected, it will be a domino that will crumble. World leaders and business elites are being pushed to the wall to mutually assure their destruction and the only solution is a world government with one financial system, one army and one religion of what? God forbid!

Eventual Shooting War by Erick San Juan

2011-11-03T00:36:00.000-07:00

People of the world beware! I don't want to be an alarmist but in my group's analysis of the current global situation, we are in for something that we will all regret soon. All the ingredients and prescriptions for chaos are already part of our lives. We seem to accept what's happening to our society and the world as the new trend and a way of life in this changing world. The ongoing and mounting recession could lead to civil unrest worldwide. The domino effect of this global economic stagflation could repeat the pattern of events before the first and second world war. The saber-rattling this time could also lead to a shooting war, a shorter war where nukes will be inflicted to the world by superpowers destroying not only the living but the earth.

Nobody in his right mind wants war. But, if the global elites will fail to control some of their allies who seem to show their superiority and world control, we are all in for trouble. All the ingredients for disaster are being assessed by different think-tank groups worldwide. Recently, the United Nations released the information that the world population is now 7 billion people and a Filipino child completed it. The world is now over populated with a high percentage of the so called "useless eaters". To add more injury to the global problem, there are more calamities occurring worldwide like earthquakes, floods, snow storms,etc. making the world food supply scarce. The worst is the fight for the control of the dwindling oil and gas supply.

The "painting in the west and fighting in the east" scenario by the Pentagon has change it's gear when US defense secretary Leon Panetta made a statement in Tokyo recently (Wall Street Journal 10/25/11) and said,"The winding down of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan clears the way for the U.S. to shift it's focus to Asia and in particularly to China, where the part of the world that likely matters most in the long run." He added that the "U.S. now is at a turning point that will allow a strategic re-balancing toward Asia." He explained that despite the belt-tightening, the U.S. forces in Asia won't be cut to check China's military build up. It was a clear message to Beijing, whose military build up and maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea has alarmed America and it's regional allies.

The blame game approach compounded when the Philippine navy and the South Korean authorities detained fishing boats from China. Beijing urged both Philippine and South Korean governments to unconditionally return the Chinese dinghies as soon as possible 'cause it harmed the "lawful rights and interests of their fishermen". China's foreign ministry spokesperson, Jiang Yu, in a Beijing conference (October 20) said, "The Philippine naval vessel entered the waters off Liyue Bank of Spratleys, called the Nansha islands." But the Philippine authority claimed that the Chinese boats got entangled with their ship near the Recto Bank, owned by the Philippines. (PhilStar 10/22/11)

The situation turned uglier when the US and the Philippine military had their Philblex joint military exercises recently near the Spratlys. The US and the Philippine government announced that the exercises were not aimed at China but the Chinese military reacted and said that these events have been promoting hawkish responses within China. Global Times(10/25/11) said that Beijing wants peace which is vital for it's own economic development but some of it's neighbors have been exploiting China's mild diplomatic stance. Small countries are allegedly being used by the west as an "opportunistic strategy" to push them to the wall and fight, that a 'counter-attack' is likely. If these countries won't change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the 'sound of cannons'.

I would like to reiterate that with the word war emanating from their proxies, it could lead to a shooting war. We should prepare for the worst. We could be the collateral damage. We have to watch out for the pretext and learn from history where our forefathers were once cannon-fodders by these warring elites. Even our second world war veterans are up to now were not given what's due them. The Aquino government should wake up. May your conscience bother you.

Commander-in-Chief: What Went Wrong? by Erick San Juan

2011-10-26T21:24:00.000-07:00

"It takes two to tango.", as the saying goes. As the commander-in-chief of the whole Armed Forces of the Philippines, PNoy showed a strange attitude during the AFP command conference last week. He reportedly faulted the officers and men of the special forces unit and put the blame on them for the death of several soldiers involved in the operation against criminal elements at Al Barka in Basilan. The legitimate military operation was done to serve the warrant of arrests for the group leaders who were responsible for the crimes against the people of Basilan and the beheading of our 10 marine soldiers in the past. According to Col. Alexander Macario(Task Force Basilan commander), they even cleared the entry of our military component with an MILF leader. But instead of assisting our hapless soldiers, they were killed and beheaded by these evil Abu Sayyaf's with the help of the MILF.

The MILF even arrogantly owned the responsibility for the slaughter and the wounding of our unfortunate soldiers. Instead of giving moral support to his soldiers, PNoy even scolded them in public and relieved two of it's officers, including Col. Antonio Parlade, the army spokesman. He committed for an 'all-out justice' and promised to move swiftly in fighting lawless elements. But out of the blue, he reiterated his call for the MILF to stay at the negotiating table and categorically absolved the MILF of the crime. The worst, at the Ciudad Fernandina forum at Club Filipino, retired Commodore Rex Robles commented that he was shocked when he heard PNoy saying that 'he will protect the areas that we control'. Robles added that the way the president speak is difficult to comprehend. "He seems to have given the MILF some of our territories." Robles concluded.

Some of PNoy's supporters are now his critics. Others said that the president has been breaking protocols and seems to be following the orders of his real 'boss'. Legal experts said that he's committing treasonous acts, firstly, when he met with the MILF leaders headed by Al Hajj Murad in Narita, Japan and today, wednesday, Malacanang admitted that his peace adviser, Marvic Leonen even gave the MILF P5 million pesos for the BMLMI (Bangsa Moro Leadership and Management Institute). The amount allegedly came from the presidential social fund. Sec. Ging Deles in another interview said that the BMLMI was created during the time of President Gloria Arroyo. Leonen even described the Al Barka incident as an 'isolated case'. Pundits said that it seems impossible to believe that the MILF leaders were 'soft touched' by P5 million pesos. "How cheap for a group claiming control of a big portion of Minsupala.", a coffee shop wag at the Hotel Intercon commented.

Where are PNoy's trusted lieutenants who should give him precious counselling during this time of crisis? Is the DILG code not enough to be implemented by barangay officials, the mayors, the governors who should oversee that law enforcement and it's implementation as part of the local governance and responsibility? How can the local government negotiate in a position of strength if they themselves are in cahoots or they could be possibly the puppet masters of these bandits? What happened to the humint (human intelligence) operation of the barangay tanods? Even Congressman Mujib Hataman of Basilan rightfully commented that the issue here is a correct governance.

The citizenry had seen the difference between PNoy and former President Joseph Estrada. Estrada during his watch ordered the Armed Forces to over run the MILF camps. It became successful because of the secret help of the US drones that simultaneously attacked the two main MILF camps namely Abu Bakr and Raja Muda and its 44 satellite camps. Without the knowledge of Estrada, our troops headed by Gens. Camiling and TP Salazar(now Nica chief) backed by artillery barrages and air strikes were assisted by the US drones.

When the late Defense secretary Angelo Reyes arrived from his 'consultation' from Washington DC during Erap's time, I was invited by then Defense undersecretary Mel Rosales to have breakfast with Reyes at the Camp Aguinaldo's officers clubhouse. Reyes told us that Pentagon wanted to neutralize the terrorists in Mindanao especially the Abu Sayyaf and the MILF. The US Department of Defense was allegedly worried about the MILF because of a nearby state supporting its cause. Secretary Reyes was astonished when he was told that if our government will not do it, they will move on their own. Reyes reported the briefing to Pres. Estrada and the president despite our meager resources, capability and ammunitions commanded Reyes to overrun the MILF. The rest was history.

What went wrong? Why is the US government now supporting the MILF? Is the war on terror being propagated by the US government plain hypocricy and double talk? This is a big joke and unbelievable. Reality check will affirm that the US government will definitely protect it's interests in the region and the weak leadership and mediocrity of our officials gave the foreign powers the impression that we dont have the capacity to manage the nation.

"Kano ang boss ko!"

The Plot Thickens by Erick San Juan

2011-10-18T19:06:00.000-07:00

The Carlos P. Romulo Foundation for Peace and Development, in collaboration with the Institute of South East Asian Studies(ISEAS-Singapore) hosted the Forum on West Philippine Sea(SCS) at the Manila Polo Club last Sunday and Monday. The CPR Foundation is chaired by former Foreign Affairs Secretary Roberto R. Romulo. The first session was chaired by former Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro while the Monday session was moderated by former Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo L. Siazon,Jr.

The conference was well attended by diplomats, scholars, public figures, civil society, security and military officers. They engaged in the dialogue, discussed ideas and solutions in defining the South China Sea issue. Secretary Romulo hoped that over time, the forum can influence official thinking and policy with the goal of identifying common interests.

Last sunday's closed-door session had a heated issue of India advising China not to interfere in Kashmir and India will not intervene in the South China Sea issue. The group committed for a successful conflict resolutions which will lead to peace , prosperity and regional cooperation.

Former US Ambassador to the Philippines, Frank Wisner, now the international affairs advisor of Patton Boggs LLP and the vice-chairman of AIG, told the audience that he came not as a diplomat but as an American with a keen interest in the region. He explained that the United States of America is a Pacific power with the destiny to linked to the asian belt. Wisner said that America's security and economic well being depend heavily on Asia and this fact will grow in importance in the years ahead. He added that the USA have interests in the South China Sea and that full half of the world's merchant ships pass the SCS each year. South China Sea carries six times the freight of the Suez Canal, especially oil. The amount of traffic through SCS will double by2030. "This is the reason why many nations are keen in promoting peaceful resolutions in the overlapping claims, the need for a code of conduct, the right of free passage, freedom of navigation and the orderly exploitation of the resources of the South China Sea are matters of huge importance to all.", Wisner concluded.

I was amazed by the speech articulated by Dr. Fu-kuo Liu of the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University in Taiwan. He reiterated Taiwan's interest in the South China Sea. He asked everyone of us why only now that the South China Sea issue is being addressed when in fact that in 1947, a U-shaped line was drawn by the Republic of China according to the international legal norms and reflected by the international political reality after the World War 2. The area within the line was identified as historical water of ROC. It was allegedly agreed by Japan through the United Nations and the Taiwan government reportedly can validate this. Although Dr. Liu said that the Republic of China(Taiwan) did not make it clear on how this U-shaped line was based upon and what it really means from the start. The U-shaped line exists long before UNCLOS was concluded in 1982. He concluded that Taiwan's sovereignty over the area within the line remain unchanged.

Is this the reason why the Taiwanese government through it's president, Ma Ying-Jeou made a fiery statement during it's national day(October 10,2011)? He said that the people of Taiwan have to defend it's sovereignty and they will install and deploy missiles in the South China Sea over concerns that rival claimants to the disputed islands are building up their arms. Taiwan's defense minister, Kao
Hua-chu through it's defense committee demand that it's coast guard units in Taiping and the Pratas islands, claimed by Taiwan be armed with Chaparral or Tien Chien 1 missiles. Taiping is the biggest island in the Spratlys.

The plot thickens!

Mind Opener:Connecting the Dots by Erick San Juan

2011-10-12T22:38:00.000-07:00

I was alarmed by the article of Amando Doronila at the Philippine Daily Inquirer Oct. 12,2011 entitled, "Is PNoy Worthy Heir to Edsa Legacy?" The president according to Doronila delivered a speech at the annual meeting of the World Bank and the IMF(International Monetary Fund) in Washington DC last September 21, the anniversary of Marcos martial rule. The main point of PNoy's speech was all about 'people power' allegedly driving the winds of political and social change. His mother catapulted into power through the so called peaceful revolution ousting a perceived corrupt dictator.

Doronila quoted PNoy saying, "We gathered here today at a time of rapid change around the entire world (referring to the Middle East and North Africa), where people took to the streets in droves, risking their livelihoods and even their lives to call for the removal of leaders who could no longer respond to their needs and aspirations."

PNoy concluded, "That after the euphoria fades, how does a government faced with a gargantuan task in sustaining the momentum, rebuild it's institutions from the ground up? How to harness the energy of the people power to provide jobs, food, education, health and other vital services, given the situation it inherited? Doronila reacted by saying-"not by laziness."

Methinks that the president is not lazy as perceived. He just need sincere, dedicated and can be trusted lieutenants to help him in his daily problem solving. His questions in that speech if addressed immediately by his administration is good enough as a starter. He should stick to his "Matuwid na Daan" (straight path), have the political will to ax dead meats, opportunists and corruptors inside his loop. They are destroying him from within. He should also watch out for 'Greeks bearing gifts'. People outside looking in are getting worried that despite the advocacy of the president to jail the corrupt officials of the previous administration, he is now fighting so many fronts, including possibly, some of his people who are now gradually being exposed as to their 'wheeling and dealing'. The infighting between the Balay and the Samar group is being discreetly agitated not only by some oppositor but also by vested interests from within, Look at the case of political secretary Ronald Llamas, The exposes' being leaked to the media are reportedly coming from another faction within PNoy's circle.

With the compounding problems and the 'gathering storm', the government should act fast. A new version of Hyatt 10 is in the offing. There is an approaching struggle that if taken for granted could involve all of us. In disguise as election fraud, even in the presidential elections of 2010, some vested interest groups could act outside the constitution. They will proclaim that the system is a lie and does not work. Even surveys lie like the politicians.

This nation has not been united for a very long time despite Edsa 'revolts'. Let's stand up and make this country what you want it to be. Let's all be responsible, be accountable and get involve in rebuilding this nation always being designed to fail! God bless the Philippines!

Occupy Wall Street: Where is it Leading to? by Erick San Juan

2011-10-12T22:34:00.000-07:00

The OWS(Occupy Wall Street) campaign started in New York with a handfull of young protesters almost patterned to the Arab Spring people power in the Middle East and North Africa that toppled several perceived corrupt leaders. In a matter of days it's all over America creating mass actions in several states. The financial giants are freaking out and reports from ATS(above top secret) confirmed that they put their state police on their payroll to protect them. According to blogger, Salusa, what has happened is the result of the people waking up as to how they have been manipulated and used to support the lives of those who rule over them. The energy for change is sweeping the world and with the intent of the people. it will allegedly be like a tidal wave washing away everything in its path. The 'masterminds' of the Arab Spring were shock to see that the pattern of confluence of events they directed backfired and mass movements are rapidly gathering pace.

The young generations are fearless. The same mass actions also happened in the United Kingdom. Many of them believe that they cannot tolerate the deliberate fraud by their banksters and money masters mishandling their banking and financial system which is causing recession. These yuppies believe that it is now high time to dismantle the unholy alliance of corrupt politicians and the elite who run the government like hell. People get fear-mongered into believing that things are really bad. According to blogger, LiberLegit, the manipulators connect imaginary puzzle pieces and see "hypothetical" big picture to create a situation. Cobaltic 1978, another blogger said that the middle class is being eroded and will soon be part of the lower echelon of society if we will not get our acts together. He added that the illusion of your freedom and the reality of your slavery is about to come to roost. Let's be ready for that wake up call.

Even the famous coumnist and Nobel peace prize awardee, Paul Krugman of the International Herald Tribune (Oct. 11,2011 issue) said, "Who's really being un-American here? Not the protestors , who are simply trying to get their voices be heard. No, the real extremists here are the American oligarchs who want to suppress any criricism of the sources of their wealth.

So, what else is new? Some Americans are panicky that if the situation will not be averted immediately, it could force the Obama administration to declare a state of emergency, suspend the US congress and declare martial law. Either the 'patriot act' will be enforced to deal with the unruly populace. The worst scenario is a possible second revolution in America. A pundit warned that the American people should watch carefully the confluence of events and where it will lead them. The wildfire protests could have been engineered to enable the declaration of martial law.

Many Filipinos are wondering if these scenarios going on worldwide can happen here? Just like some of the skeptics, the pattern is there. Even the martial law of Marcos was predicated with several incidents and mass actions were engineered to justify the declaration of PD 1081. During that time some activists don't even know what they are protesting about or what's their plan if they succeed.

But the situation now is so different that the youth of today can think out of the box and with the help of new technologies like the cellphone and the internet, mobilization and networking is easy. Despite that the Filipinos are pliant like a bamboo, the problem is not cowardice or fear, but the hard fact that we don't really want to go to any bloody confrontation and if we can avoid it the better. Just like any human being, don't push anyone over the edge, don't screw the people, they will fight back at the proper time just like our revolutionaries in the past.

Even the illustrious former chief justice, Reynato Puno, during the 50th anniversary of the Philconsa at the Manila Hotel advised that we have to fight the cause of our flawed democracy if we are to defend our constitution. Political and economic fraud against the citizenry and the nation should be stopped before it's too late.

False Hope, False Alarm by Erick San Juan

2011-10-05T09:17:00.000-07:00

False Hope, False Alarm by Erick San Juan

There were so many wild rumors emanating from coffee shop wags as to the real intention of President Noynoy's travel to China, U.S. and Japan. It started with his trip to China that coincided with Congresswoman Imelda Marcos open-secret trip to Beijing. There were speculation that it's all about the possible negotiation for the return of some Marcos accounts kept in China. When PNoy returned back to the Philippines, the only news that we got was that the anomalous transactions of the previous administration like the ZTE-NBN deal, Northrail, etc. will be revived with modification. Thanks to the Chinoy powerbrokers-carpetbaggers of the GMA government who are now rubbing elbows with PNoy and his loop.

Suddenly, Mrs. Marcos has been so quiet. But the rumor mill coming from some Marcos loyalists are boasting that this month of October will be a merry month not only for them but for all the Filipinos. The funds will allegedly be coming from the so called Asean-China Investment Fund, a private equity fund where it's unusual that the Swiss government will be involved together with the ADB(Asian Development Bank and the UOB(United Overseas Bank) are investors.

While in China, out of the blue, PNoy said that he has to go to the U.S. to meet with President Barack Obama and the big guns of Asia Society in New York and then he will visit Japan. My favorite Marcos loyalist friend said that there's a possibility that the American elites would like to get their piece of the action, reason why PNoy has to leave as soon as possible for the U.S. From America, instead of going straight to Japan, he returned back to Manila. In Japan, he got what he wants. According to news report- a new computer game for his favorite nephew, Josh and an audience with Emperor Akihito. But it got the ire of so many Filipinos when it was published in the newspapers that he gave US$ one million dollars to Japan's Tsunami victims when millions of Filipinos needs help too.Even Manila Standard columnist Jojo Robles made a hard-hitting observation that PNoy is insensitive and out of touch with the poor Filipinos. PNoy reportedly made a stupid act.

Even our oldies are up in arms as to the actuation of the president. Up to now many of our female senior citizens who were victimized during the second world war and became "comfort women" or "sex slaves" were not given justice by the Japanese government. The relatives of the so called "Jugun ianfu" or military sex slaves said that they are doubting the sincerity of the Japanese government in resolving these humanitarian problem which affected not only Filipino women but of many nations conquered by the Japanese during the war. What the surviving comfort women got up to now were unofficial apologies and meager financial awards where many of the surviving comfort women refused to accept.

The situation compounded when Typhoon Pedring hit Luzon and the president was bombarded by comments that he's nowhere to be found and tried to address the situation after the damage has been done. The finger pointing among government agencies worsened. Actually, the people are used to flooding but blaming Typhoon Pedring for making so many areas in Luzon like a water world is not justifiable. According to some local government officials, it was due to illegal logging and unprecedented release of water from several dams. According to PAGASA, the rainfall of typhoon Pedring was just 10% of Ondoy while that of Quiel was much SMALLER in volume. So who's the real culprit? According to activist Ferdie Pasion, most of our dams now are privatized. The dam operators DON'T want to release water before the typhoon arrives due to fear that the typhoon may not come or it will not be sufficient to replenish the water that were earlier released. Profit from electric generator is their priority vis-a-vis human safety and welfare.

My Opinyon publisher, Ray Junia, made a 'bulls eye' detail of what really transpired in PNoy's bothersome trips to China, US and Japan. In his latest analysis titled, 'Gullible's Travels', he said that the Americans and the Japanese are into something. Japan is behind the US in this regional maneuver with the Philippines as the battleground, the reason the secret meeting by PNoy with the MILF leaders was held in Japan. China could react to the bullying of US and Japan. It could call the bluff and we get pinned in the firefight. US could end up getting Mindanao, China getting the Spratly Islands and Japan getting it's share of our natural resources.

We never learned from our past mistakes...... Wake up!

What's Wrong with the World?

2011-09-27T06:11:00.000-07:00

What's Wrong with the World? by Erick San Juan

Leaders of the world seems to be repeating the mistakes of the past. All the danger signs are already in our midst. Global breaking point will possibly occur this coming October (economiccollapseblog.com). The allies in the past could disintegrate and be future enemies. Economic and financial analysts believe that there's only six weeks to save the euro but most of them believe that the dark clouds is on the horizon. All kinds of signs that the financial world will experience a nervous breakdown(dailymail.co.uk/news). Massive amounts of investors money reportedly is being pulled out of the stock market. The biggest stock market crashes tended to happen in the fall. The global market is allegedly on the verge of "Black October". European debt crisis continue to worsen and weird financial activities are being made all over the world.

Lyndon LaRouche of the Executive Intelligence Review commented that the international financial elite met last week in Washington DC for the annual meeting of the IMF-WB (International Monetary Fund-World Bank). EIR said that the group meet in an environment of utter panic and hysteria created by the death rattle of their global financial system and by their own criminal incompetence to deal with it.

LaRouche added that this is a 1923 style collapse on a global scale and the political leadership of America is acting like the 'dumb' Germans from that period. "They have not learned nothing from that lesson. Nearly everyone in leading positions today has flinched and backed off from the necessary measures. They are not prepared to defend civilization. The system is over.", LaRouche concluded.

Los Angeles Times report said that the west has apparently been under attack by an organized cabal of inter-generational banking families and corporate, business and military enablers for at least 200 to 300 years now. In the past 50 years, the pace has accelerated. These handful of wealthy central banking families reportedly want to impoverish the U.S. and render its citizens penniless.

Pundits believe that this is what they call "directed history", in which events including wars are planned to ensure maximum destruction of the culture as it is in order to further militarize, globalize and impoverish what remains. Modern nation state is now funded by central banks, governed mostly by private bankers and the super 'elite'. It's ultimate goal is formal global governance. The United Nations will be possibly modified to implement a world government. These super elites reportedly like to work within a "lawful" environment of their own creation and continually consolidate power. The pattern is very clear. Methinks, the globalists have perfected the art of war. Their citizenry having a good life, through the "living like a king, die like a rat" policy. When war is needed to create prosperity, jobs and economies collapse. Even the most smartest among the citizenry will be manipulated and forced to fight to save the republic. Everything is pre-determined like a program scenario.

Even China's elite and it's politburo are worried and concerned about the stability of the American and European banks because of their investments and exposures. It will be like a domino that everybody will be dragged and fall. It's now a reality that governments do not run their nation, it's the super elites who runs it. Blogger Glutimas Maximus said that millions of people will be wiped out soon and their savings gone. We can ignore this reality indefinitely but we can't ignore the consequences of this evil plan. It would absolutely be devastating.

Beware of the nuclear war in the offing!

Do We Really Have to Celebrate?

2011-09-19T00:17:00.000-07:00

Do We Really Have to Celebrate?
by Erick San Juan

September 16, 1991 to 2011, marks the 20th year of the RP-US bases treaty rejection. Many people were thought to believe that today is the day to celebrate and be proud that the Americans were forced by the "Magnificent 12" namely Senators- Juan Ponce Enrile, Butch Aquino, Joseph Estrada, Tito Guingona, Sotero Laurel, Orly Mercado, Ernie Maceda, Nene Pimentel, Victor Ziga, Rene Saguisag and then Senate President Jovito Salonga to leave Clark Air Base and the Subic Naval Base.

There is a celebration today at the Club Filipino dubbed as "Kasarinlan Ipaglaban" organized by the Jose W. Diokno Foundation, Lorenzo Tanada Foundation, Constantino Foundation in cooperation with people's organization. Despite the make believe that our honorable senators were convinced allegedly by the overwhelming anti-bases demonstrations and anti-imperialist sentiments; activists consistent mass actions and struggle, these senators were a mixture of 'pro' and anti American.

Many of our activists up to now wondered why the American government accepted the verdict with ease. Was it providential that after the American military left the bases, the Mount Pinatubo exploded that its tremendous ash falls were felt worldwide? Or, was the timing perfect? What a coincidence that this week, a declassified U.S. State Department Memo said, the late President Ferdinand Marcos knew of nuclear weapons stockpiled in the American bases during his watch. It was released by a non-government research institute and library at the George Washington University called the "Archive". It's an online group who publishes declassified documents obtained through the U.S. Freedom of Information Act. The 1969 memo was reportedly written by Robert McClintock, a US diplomat at the State Department addressed to the US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

This information was also shared to me by the late President Marcos in one of my trips to his Makiki residence in Hawaii. He gave me photo copies of the project which was inspired by then Secretary Alex Melchor in cooperation with the US Department of Defense. One of the missiles installed was actually named 'BONGBONG' by the president with the approval of the Pentagon.

What was not completely told was the study on the possible eruption of Mount Pinatubo done by expert volcanologist, Dr. Kelvin Rodolfo. Although he's based in the US, he comes home once in a while. He made a research confirming that Mount Pinatubo was in a critical condition and will surely explode in a year or two which could irreparably damage the nuclear arsenals of the US in several secret fortresses nearby. It's sad that the information was shared only with the American government and we were all kept in the dark about it. Up to now the nuclear wastes of the American military have not been cleaned despite our government request.

What went wrong? After the Pinatubo explosion, both bases and the nearby towns were rehabilitated. Eight years later, on May 27, 1999 during the presidency of Joseph Estrada, (one of the "Magnificent 12"), a new basing right was signed named the "Visiting Forces Agreement". With the new agreement, pundits said that the people's victory was lost. What victory are we talking about? We are always hostage to the American dictates. We are at their mercy as long as we will not change our attitude, our colonial mentality and unite. How can we struggle in solidarity when we don't seem to understand that our enemy is from within? It's us!

Even our 'nationalists' are not all for 'real'. Some of them are even accepting US grants, scholarships, and jobs in the US local conduits like the PRRM, EMERGE,etc. Don't get me wrong, the Americans are good people per se but it's us who doesn't have self-respect and dis-united. Reason the carpetbaggers and opportunists among them manipulate some of our leaders who are gullible to their carrot and stick operation.

When are we going to learn and change our attitude for the better? God bless the Philippines!

A Coalition Government in the Offing? By Erick San Juan

2011-09-05T00:46:00.001-07:00

A Coalition Government in the Offing. Again? By Erick San Juan

Out of the blue, the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) has secretly offered President Benigno S. Aquino III, a "coalition government" that would allegedly lead to an instant ceasefire and a peace deal, with talks on political and economic reforms to follow later, said chief rebel negotiator, Luis Jalandoni (AFP-Sunday Bulletin, Sept. 4, 2011). Agence France Presse confirmed that a special Aquino envoy is pursuing "special track" talks with the rebels, suggesting it could proceed side by side with his group's formal talks with chief government negotiator, Alexander Padilla, Jalandoni added.

The reported proposal would have the rebels joining a "Council of National Unity" to advice Aquino on 'reforms' and put up 20 projects to make the country self-sufficient in food, steel and pharmaceuticals. Anyone who has read the said proposal will possibly be enticed and lured by the suggestion and the 'good' intention.

The AFP report added that Padilla reiterated that the Philippines had rejected a deal along these similar lines in 2005, but added, he could not comment on the new one. The CPP explained that the stalled talks with the government could resume with Norway's help, and suggested a limited deal that the communist party would swiftly end the decades long insurgency.

Why is this former Jesuit priest, Luis Jalandoni, seems so sure that this time the coalition government will prosper? The talk-talk-talk with the so called leaders of the insurgents has been for decades and had been a "talk-fight" for more than 20 years. With whom is the government dealing now, with the National Democratic Front or with the Communist Party?

It reminded me of my previous talks with some of the progressive leaders and nationalists in the past as to how did the Communist Party of the Philiipines and the New People's Army became part of the umbrella organization of the Jesuit inspired, National Democratic Front. A top honcho of the party was shocked to my query and told me that due to haste during that time of transition, there was really no approval from the Politburo in recognizing the NDF. It is like magic that the NDF was rapidly known worldwide. Is there a falling out between Jalandoni and Joma Sison this time? He has been so quiet for a long time. Or, is the NDF already burn out that it's funding is not really coming from the Philippine insurgents but from a religious order vying for the world control through liberation theology?

To internationalize the issue, the Norway government was requested to be a mediator. Norway is a credibly rich nation where socialism is considered a perfect model of society but we're not Norway and we're so divided. The government and the CPP meeting was allegedly brokered by Norway in February and Jalandoni floated that this peace talk could be a breakthrough where both sides 'agreed' to speed up the peace process.

Jalandoni with his wife, Coni, a former liberation theologist nun, upon arrival from abroad met with the progressive leaders at the National Council of Churches of the Philippines in Quezon city and talked about the 'good news' regarding the resumption of the peace talks and want to pressure the PNoy government to release the 13 NDFP consultants under Jasig.

Today and tomorrow, Jalandoni will reportedly meet with Padilla with the special envoy from Norway, dispatched to Manila to allegedly solve the obstacles. Jalandoni believes that the peace accord will be sealed on or before June, 2012.

Here we go again! Have we forgotten the mistakes of the late President Corazon Aquino? The said “coalition” government was hatched during her watch. During that period, Filipinos were basically divided into two colors. The RED, represented by the Marcos camp and the YELLOW by the Cory regime. During that time, the Armed Forces (AFP) was destroyed by the progressives in the media, exposing the graft and corruptions in the service, human rights violation, etc. The same issues can be found in our dailies today, exposing the graft and corruption within the AFP and the PNP like the Rabusa expose's, the helicopter deal, etc. where both institutions are being destroyed and weakened. Thus, the morality of our soldiers and law enforcers were affected. Politicians and former AFP and police officers turned politicians became witting and unwitting tool to expose their former comrades and enemies.

After the failed coup of then Col. Gringo Honasan in August, 1987, the NDF and the Cory government almost coalesced but was aborted by our patriots within the media and the armed forces. God forbid, that the evil-genius clique from the said religious congregation and it's agenda will not fly. Will it be a September to Remember or the August Moon of the Chinese calendar? PNoy should really be careful. Scary indeed!

False Alarm or Predicate Layed? by Erick San Juan

2011-08-29T20:17:00.000-07:00

False Alarm or Predicate Layed? by Erick San Juan

At the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (A Graduate School of Nanyang Technological University) in Singapore recently, Associate professor Ahmed S. Hashim of International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research lectured on "Terrorism as an Instrument of Culture Warfare: the Meaning of Anders Breivik". Hashim said that the terrorist attack of July 23,2011 launched by a lone right-wing extremist in the peaceful capital city city of Oslo, Norway and at the summer camp for children in the island of Utoya, resulted to the death of 77 young people.

The whole of Europe and the world were shaken and wondered how such mass murder could have been executed with ease by a lone gunman. During the first few hours, the world was bombarded by the news spin coming from CNN, BBC,etc. that initially thought that the attacks have the 'signature' of Al Qaeda.

Hashim explained that 32-year old Anders Behring Breivik came from an upper middle class upbringing and used to be a resident of a middle class Oslo suburb of Skoyen. Many people were astonished how Breivik could commit such monstrous and evil acts especially in the world's re-known peaceful nation of Norway.

I myself had been there twice and find Norway not only a very peaceful state but with cheerful and hospitable people including Filipino migrants who entertained me even though it's my first time to meet them.

According to Hashim, Breivik looked like any 'normal' Norwegian, had never caught the attention of the government security services. Breivik was reportedly integrated into society and was careful enough to ensure that his 'abnormal' activities, preparations for the murderous rampage will not be monitored by the radarscope of the government's law-enforcement agencies.

What was not told in the lecture was how Breivik was pinpointed as the real culprit? Thanks to the vigilance of the Norwegian citizenry, Breivik was tipped-off and apprehended immediately by the authorities. Hashim expounded that during the police interrogation, he pretended to be insane and bizarrely demanded to be appointed to be the head of the Norwegian army and called for the abdication of King Harald V. It is just like a re-run of the movie, the "Knight and Day" which featured Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz. In the movie, Cameron was injected with a 'truth serum' to tell everything while Breivik could have suffered brain manipulation like the MK Ultra or with the use of hallocinogenic injection.

Hashim gave a bird's eye view of the living condition in Norway. He said, for the past several decades, Norway has been a quiet, prosperous and generous welfare state, blessed with excellent schooling, high wages, and considerable social uniformity. It never suffered from problems associated with the integration and assimilation of newcomers. Both native Norwegians and the immigrants co-exist enjoying the largesse and services provided by a rich and generous state.

Hashim said that it is not clear what direct links,if any, Breivik had with established far-right populist groups. his links may only be ideological and that the decision to undertake his acts of political violence was solely his own. He concluded that law enforcement units have to take into consideration whether there might be collaboration between enemies such as Al Qaeda and the far right in Europe. He added that stranger things had happened, especially that Breivik has expressed admiration for the methods of Al Qaeda.

But some pundits are asking, if Breivik is a Christian nutcase, why did he kill white people who are mostly Christians? A political analyst even whispered that Breivik is not a 'Superman' to kill so many people at one time.

Mind boggling indeed!

Manchurian Candidates: Made in Hollywood by Erick San Juan

2011-08-29T20:11:00.001-07:00

Manchurian Candidates: Made in Hollywood by Erick San Juan

Most nations worldwide, their intelligence services, the people and media were focused on the possible threat of Islamist violence which were shown daily on TV news and print media(Terrorism as an Instrument of Cultural Warfare by Ahmed S. Hashim). But it does not exist in Norway and their intelligence community have been updating their asssessments. Most of them believe that even right wing extremism will not pose any serious threat to their citizenry. But what went wrong?

Now, most European governments and law enforcement agencies are now haunted by a new 'specter' within the new extreme right populist movement committted to the use of violence. According to Hashim, counter-terrrorism officials have been warning of a new trend, the so callled "solo terrorist". A fighter trained by organizations like Al Qaeda, but then sent off to act on his own, with little or no further correspondence with the group. this tactic reduces the amount of 'chatter'-discussions on cell phones and over the internet where counter terrorism experts routinely pick up when a terrorist plot is in the offing.

"Breivik represents a new paradigm.", says Janne Kristiansen, head of Norway's domestic intelligence, the Police Security Service. "He's not a solo terrorist. He's a 'lone wolf' who has been very intent on staying under the radar of of the security services by leading a lawful life."

Sounds familiar! This same line of 'lone wolf' was also parroted by U.S. President Barack Obama the other week when he stated that a 'lone wolf' could attack the U.S. anytime. Is this part of the laying the predicate? It seems that the situation has a pattern of history. Most of them were seen in the movies, television series and manufactured in Hollywood. Remember the movie, Wag the Dog? It was shown first worldwide where the life of former US President Bill Clinton was depicted. The former president was almost indicted because of his sexcapade.

Before the 911 incident, a TV series,"The Lone Gunman", an episode of X Files aired by Fox on March 4,2001, in which the actual scenario for the 911 attacks was revealed using a Boieng 727,enroute to Boston. The plane was hijacked by a shadowy group of US government plotters intent on crashing into the World Trade Center and blame it on anti-US despot to drag the US into war and increase weapon sales. The plot was called, Scenario 12D, where the plane auto-pilot was commandeered from the ground. The show series was allllegedly cancelled in June,2001.

The American people should follow the vigilance and the collective effort of the Norwegians. The 'lone wolf' scenario could be real, especially now that the anniversary of the 911 is getting nearer. This could be a pretext for something "big". Another movie with the same pattern of incident and the latest movie, the "Source Code", which was released last April, 2011 has almost identical scenario. A lone terrorist builds a nuke dirty bomb and plan to detonate it in Chicago killing two million people using a commuter train.

Even the reported computer files of Osama bin Laden in his Abbotabad safe house confirmed that the main target of attack by the Al Qaeda are the Chicago Water Tower, a US rail system and bridges as aspirational phase which could be another false flag operation to pressure the American people to fight 'unknown' enemies.

"Be wary of the invisible empire of the new world order.", author Geoffrey Wheatcroft said. It is an order out of chaos. "A strange new world the Americans find themselves in and one where they are finding it harder than ever to impose their will on anyone, anywhere." Need I say more?

The Rush for Bilateral Agreements

2011-08-13T22:31:00.000-07:00

The Rush for Bilateral Agreements by Erick San Juan

The US government has intensified it's bilateral negotiations with the countries in the region to strengthen it's influence in Southeast Asia and possibly obtain indirect control over the sea lanes in the Malacca Strait. In this regard, Washington has floated the idea of the need to redeploy troops and it's Seventh fleet in the region. Guam was supposed to be the place for the troops deployment. Many observers believe that the change of plan was due to China's sending it's first aircraft carrier to sea which US defense analyst sees as a challenge to the American military supremacy and interests.

To provide the rationale for plans in changing the policy, there were several pretext used as a way of supporting nation states in the region. Such as, damaged by calamities like the emergency situation in Japan as a result of repeated earthquakes, the effects of technological disaster of the nuclear power plant in Fukushima and terrorism in some parts of the region. White house allegedly want a direct participation and implementation of security measures to ensure security in the region.It also intends to involve US combat units in "helping" the law enforcement units capability of the Asian allies.

But most Asean nations are wary that the deployment could aggravate the situation. which could lead to more terror threat on the Asian sea lanes especially at the Strait of Malacca where a 'Somali' type of pirate operation could ensue.Recently, the US government criticized the leadership of countries that are not effective enough in their fight against piracy in the strait. They are promoting the idea of the need to enhance substantive cooperation with the US forces. To provide impact on their foreign policy affecting the asia pacific region, the US initiates with the support of the US congress, new policies on the important issues of bilateral relations with the countries in the region.

As published in several newspapers last April this year, US senators, Daniel Inouye and Thad Cochran visited the Philippines. During the talk with the Philippine government officials, the American senators reportedly discussed the possibility of US troops returning to the former US bases at Clark Airbase in Pampanga and at Subic naval station in Olongapo. The US legislators raised the issue of refurbishing the installation before the withdrawal of the military personnels of the Seventh fleet from the Okinawa base in 2012. Last March,the US congress delegation headed by Rep. E. Olson negotiated with Thailand Ministry of Trade to provide American businesses access to key sectors of the Thai economy. US was reportedly interested in expanding its business interests in insurance,banking, telecommunication, mining and agricultural market. Congressman Olson reiterated that the issue should be resolved by introducing changes in the bilateral treaty of friendship and economic relations of 1966.

China is doing the same thing by dealing with the Asian bilaterally. But when China started deploying it's first aircraft carrier in the South China Seas, it sent jittery and anxiety to the Asean especially those nations like the Philippines and Vietnam who were once bullied by China.

This could be the complying reason why the US is in a rush to expand it's military presence in the sea lanes of South east asia particularly in the Malacca Strait. The mistrust of China's flexing it's muscle and the fear of President Hu Jin tao's 2004 "New Historic Missions" is unclear. According to Bonnie S. Glaser and Brittany Billingsley of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC," China's aircraft carriers could be a threat to US interests." (Source:Perry Diaz blog,August 12,2011)

Such expansions could lead to several negative consequences. It could engender the possible interference of big powers into the internal affairs of the Asean nations. It could also provoke local radicalism, provoke anti-american and anti-chinese sentiments in the process. The geopolitical situation could really provoke a global war if not abated. If the military establishments of these two contending powers will not be controlled by their political leaders, all hell will break loose.

Who's The Real Boss? by Erick San Juan

2011-08-10T20:00:00.001-07:00

Who's The Real Boss? by Erick San Juan

History always repeat itself as the saying goes, because many leaders repeat the mistakes of the past and never learned from them. Recently, the puppet masters who just modified their agenda, are the same ideologues using the principle of Karl Marx that "Religion is the opium of the people". They are manipulating the populace through an 'angel and demon' operation unsuspectingly controlling everyone and creating several 'frankenstein' in the process.

A good example is the recent meeting of President Noynoy with rebel leader Haj Murad Ibrahim of the MILF at the Ana Airport Hotel in Narita, Japan. Despite the knowledge of so many foreign diplomats on who's really behind the open-secret talk, officials in the loop of the president insist that it was the idea of PNoy. To refresh your memory on how the rebel groups like the MNLF, MILF and other Bangsa Moro groups metamorphosed, it started with the aborted "Oplan Merdeka" of the late President Ferdinand Marcos in collusion with his cousin, Tun Mustapha of Sabah and the Kiram's to take over Sabah. The plan was leaked by the late Don Chino Roces to the Aquino family through the late Sen. Ninoy Aquino( Conspiracies and Controversies, page 7).

The Kuala Lumpur government of then Tun Abdul Razak, the father of now Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak aborted the rebellion in Sabah and reportedly "secretly" financed a Jesuit spy master and strategist, the late Fr. Jose 'Derp" Blanco of the Ateneo. To destabilize Marcos, Blanco utilized covertly young combatants among the Jesuit hierarchy to secretly recruit radical professors at the University of the Philippines namely, Jose Ma. Sison aka Joma and Nur Misuari. Thus, the creation of the MNLF and the Communist Party of the Philippines. Nur recruited muslim activists and mujaheedin fighters while a faction of the PKP, the Soviet bloc of the communist organization was organized by Joma.

When Marcos was ousted by the Edsa 'U.S. inspired' uprising in 1986, then President Cory Aquino released the communists like Joma and was given permission to have a permanent vacation in Utrecht and created the National Democratic Front. According to the late patriot, Prof. Renato Constantino Sr., "It's amazing how these Jesuits operate. The NDF became the umbrella organization of the progressives without the approval of the Politburo of the Communist Party." We thought all the while that the local communist party, the New Peoples Army and supporters are the one supporting Joma and his group in Netherland. According to Prof. Constantino, "It's the Jesuits in Europe who's secretly funding their daily operation in Utrecht, through another Jesuit priest, Fr. Luis Jalandoni."

Another shocking experience by then Defense Secretary Juan Ponce Enrile and then PC-INP chief, Gen.Fidel Ramos was when President Cory told them to meet Nur Misuari in Zamboanga. Nur returned to the Philippines from the Middle East through the effort of then young Jesuit priest,Fr. Romeo Intengan, his partner Bert Gonzales and Butch Aquino of ATOM. Despite the "good intention" of the late president Cory Aquino to have peace in Mindanao, fighting ensued. It was former President Fidel Ramos who convinced Nur Misuari to forget the secessionist movement and have peace with his administration. Nur ascended as the governor of the newly created ARMM-Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao.

During the time of former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Intengan and Bert Gonzales were in the inner loop of GMA. Since day one of GMA, they already have a shadow government parallel to GMA's administration despite their closeness to her. Here's the catch. Out of the blue, President Noynoy pushed through with the secret meeting with Murad in Japan. Pundits believe that this is another Jesuit inspired plan, to create their own republic in the oil rich Minsupala like what this religious order 'tandem' did to another oil rich state, East Timor. East Timor used to be part of Indonesia. It is now headed by Jesuit priest, President Jose Ramos Horta and his buddy, now Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

Although, I don't believe that all the Jesuits are behind in this diabolical scheme, there are still good Jesuits like Fr. Bienvenido Nebres of the Ateneo University. The pattern is getting clearer now. The so called peace agreement despite the rhetorics is doomed to fail. Some socdems within the loop of the president is stabbing PNoy behind his front. Now, who's the real boss?

"Salami"zation of the Philippines, Now a Reality? by Erick San Juan

2011-08-08T00:34:00.000-07:00

"Salami"zation of the Philippines, Now a Reality? by Erick San Juan

President Noynoy Aquino made an unannounced trip to Japan last Thursday to hold a secret talk with the MILF rebels headed by Al Haj Murad Ibrahim. They met at the Ana Crowne Hotel at the Narita Airport, possibly the reason that most of them did not get Japanese visa to enter Japan so there will be no leak of the meeting. It's just like a "Mission Impossible" possibly arranged by 'hidden hands' disguised as ICG-International Contact Group. The meeting was supposed to be "cloaked in secrecy" but when somebody from the foreign affairs reportedly reacted, PNoy's loop was forced to admit that the meeting really happened. Malacanang was bombarded by adverse reactions from the citizenry and the media.

PNoy and Murad allegedly discussed on how to achieve lasting peace in Mindanao and end the war. But why deal with the rebel group in that level? Why not just let DND Secretary Voltaire Gazmin or NSC adviser Garic Garcia talk with a combatant like Murad? The president which I believe is really sincere in putting closure to that enmity, but why not meet Murad in the Malacanang palace? Why spend time,money and effort to travel to Japan? Peace panel chief Marvic Leonen even refused to give details of the meeting and said that there was no secret deal made in Japan. He added that "the MILF is no longer a secessionist group because their proposal does not include independence. They are not asking to be a separate state." But what sub-state are they talking about? Have you heard the MILF "parrot" the same chorus line? How nice to hear these personalities play with words. The MILF allegedly want to be considered Filipino citizens but with Bangsa Moro national identity.

What's the other side of the truth? Remember that before the said talk, the MILF warned that "if the Philippine government will push through with the oil exploration in their claimed area which they believe as their ancestral domain, there will be a continuity of hostilities. Let's wait for the statements that will come out from the MILF's website, LUWARAN.COM so we will know which is which..

It's sad that everyone who understand international law and arbitration believe (naisahan si presidente) the president was not given the big picture that he legitimized the 'status of belligerency' of the MILF by that airport hotel meeting. Blogger Ferdie Pasion reacted that the conferring of PNoy of equal footing to the head of the MILF in a foreign land will make the MILF rebellion in a war status. Our military and law enforcers can now be declared 'war criminals' at the slightest hint of human rights or war rights under the Geneva Convention. MILF detainees in our jails will now be considered 'prisoners of war', while the human rights violator will be penalized and can be declared a 'war criminal'.

Our national interest is at stake here. Our government should act immediately to rectify the so called "out-of the-box" solution where the president took the risk because of his "good" intention. Many believe that the president is ill-advised by some vested interests in his circle. Pundits believe that the MILF recognize the president in rhetorics but not in deed.

Minsupala meaning Mindanao-Sulu-Palawan will be balkanized soon. A possible Somali-zation is also in the offing. Methinks 'salami-zation' is more appropriate because all the ingredients of the above concerns not only Minsupala but the whole nation where the other rebel groups like the NPA's are based. A failed state at work? Heads should roll before it's too late.

Abu Sayyaf, Here We Go Again by Erick San Juan

2011-07-31T09:39:00.001-07:00

Abu Sayyaf, Here We Go Again by Erick San Juan

I was bombarded by several emails and text messages from concerned citizens and bloggers like Ferdie Pasion, Walter Siy, Architect Ben Yu, Victor Yam,etc. Their mails and messages are really fiery and thought provoking. The issue is all about the helplessness of our military being set up and killed by a small group of scalawags in the south.

This week, seven Philippine marines were killed and 21 were wounded in Patikul, Sulu. There were allegedly 300 Abu Sayyafs who ambushed our soldiers. We never learned from our past mistakes. What happened to our intelligence operation on the ground?

Architect Ben Yu said," I still believe that the Abu Sayyaf's are supported by foreign groups especially by the U.S. intel, to justify the extended stay of the 'Balikatan' military exercises....which function is to secure the Exxon-Mobil oil operation in the Sulu Seas.... For Malaysia, that's a waste of money supporting the ASG”.

From activist-nationalist Ferdie Pasion, he's calling the attention of our government and asking the Armed Forces of the Philippines for an all out war against the Abu Sayyaf's. He believes that this is the only answer to banditry and atrocities.

Victor Yam added that the real tragedy of this incident is not the defeat of the Philippine Marines, but the continued existence of the Abu Sayyaf group despite the years of presence of thousands of U.S. military personnels stationed and actually based in Minsupala with their aircraft carriers docked nearby.

I have written so many articles about the Abu Sayyaf Group (please see my blog, www.ericksanjuan .blogspot.com and one of my books, Conspiracies and Controversies). Methinks that Abu Sayyaf is a state sponsored terror group created by some puppets in uniform and manipulated by foreign vested interests through a clique of corrupt local government functionaries as weapon for their illicit fund raising and political control.

Most of the remnants of ASG are 'ABU SHABU', meaning many are drug users, reason they are so violent and fearless. They are good copy for terror and trepidation. If the local government units can't weed out the bandits, let's try putting a military government there. A pocket martial law is the answer. Command responsibility is a must. Terror infested communities should be put in such a situation to ferret out and eliminate the culprits, their cohorts and masters.

But, what if the creator and protector and of these Frankensteins are our enemies from within? Can our government do something? Do they know something but really helpless to act?

Beware of the real bandits!

ARF and the ARP - “Asian Resident Power”

2011-07-25T18:04:00.001-07:00

ARF and the ARP - “Asian Resident Power”
By Erick San Juan

The recently concluded 18th ASEAN Regional Forum in Indonesia with its 27 participants for this year has proven another milestone in keeping the world, particularly the region, at peace. Although some view the forum as “…the ARF’s perceived ineffectiveness in managing the region’s security has indubitably risen in recent years. The ARF — ‘Avoiding Regional Flashpoints’, if you will — has garnered a reputation for keeping hard security challenges off its agenda, and doing little when such issues happen to force their way in.” (Source: ASEAN Regional Forum at 18: Dealing with regional flashpoints by See Seng Tan, NTU 7/22/2011)

Was there really an avoidance in taking up the region’s flashpoints? From the reports I gathered, Uncle Sam through Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has aired their concern to the growing tensions in the disputed areas in the region involving several ASEAN members with China. They even reiterated their “national interest” in the region as vital in keeping one of the world’s busiest sea lanes peaceful.

During the post ARF meetings, at the sidelines, Sec. Clinton addressed the need to resolve the relations between the two Koreas, particularly North Korea’s return to multi-nation nuclear disarmament talks.

Declaring the United States a “resident power” with vital strategic interests throughout the Asia-Pacific, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said North Korea must do more to improve ties with the South before Washington will consider resuming six-party talks aimed at getting Pyongyang to abandon nuclear weapons in return for concessions. (Source: Associated Press 7/23/11)

It is very clear that Uncle Sam has to establish its presence in the Asia-Pacific region through support from its allies. And, the Philippines through this present administration has shown its continuing cooperation with the US and was perceived as kowtowing to Washington’s every whim and caprice.

The so-called military support of Uncle Sam in the “modernization” of the Armed Forces of the Philippines was actually seen by patriotic Filipinos as another “praise release” by the Obama administration. In truth, our country will be spending several billions in this undertaking, as what this report shows :

The military is "just using the South China Sea (locally referred to as the West Philippine Sea) dispute as an excuse for AFP fattening and corruption while the country's poor are wanting and in dire need of resources. Our conflict with China and other claimant countries in the Spratlys can be resolved peacefully," Bayan Muna Representative Teddy Casiño said in a statement.

During the deliberations of the Development Budget Coordination Committee, Budget Secretary Florencio Abad disclosed that the Aquino administration will spend P40 billion from 2012 to 2016 (P8 billion annually) to "catch up" with the AFP modernization program. (Kathrina Alvarez/Sunnex 6/20/11)

Added to this, is the expansion of the Coast Watch South towards western seaboard, and even further north of the country. The Department of Energy has earmarked the budget for the said program which will be drawn from the Malampaya fund. The Department of National Defense is expecting the implementation of the expansion within the next two to three years. This writer has written (in the past) about the existing Coast Watch South in the southern part of the country, along the Celebes Sea. Such existing maritime security is perceived by several pundits as listening post and conveniently located in the T3 – “terrorists transit triangle.”

Translation – our government is spending so much for military modernization and probably being used as a pawn in the proxy war between the “two elephants” in the process. After realizing this, there is no other way for PNoy’s administration but to strongly assert our role in the region vis-à-vis our relation with Washington and what is rightfully due us.

China’s Synthetic “Peaceful Rise and Soft Power”

2011-07-17T19:54:00.001-07:00

China’s Synthetic “Peaceful Rise and Soft Power”
By Erick San Juan

It is not new to many of us, every time we hear this line from China’s government officials, that they are committed to the “path of peaceful development, upholds the defense policy that is defensive in nature and commits itself to actively developing friendship and cooperation with countries around the world, especially neighboring countries.”

Although this statement seems to be a template conveniently used by Beijing to relieve tensions in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), ASEAN members particularly claimants in the disputed Spratly Islands and non-ASEAN countries can’t help but attach names to China’s actions in asserting its indisputable claim over the whole SCS.

One such example is from an Indonesian security expert, Andi Widjajanto, a professor at the Department on International Relations Studies at the Universitas Indonesia based in Depok. He said, China would become a “ruthless monster” and “China will rule over the region and the world and its financial and military dominance will ignite resistance and militaristic reaction from member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.” (Source: Jeffrey M. Tupas and Ryan D. Rosauro, Inquirer Mindanao 7/15/11)

There are other “name tags” that needs no elaboration as we witness the strain growing as days passed in the hotly contested area in the world – the SCS. Pundits wonder, experts and ordinary people alike are watching the possible confluence of events. Is Beijing’s “peaceful rise” and the so-called “soft power” approach are mere synthetic?

It is very clear from the warning of the Indon security expert that China plans “to become a hegemonic power” by 2020. But from the speech of China’s Defense Minister at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore that I attended, he reiterated that China has no plan of becoming a superpower.

Do we hear another doublespeak?

In this kind of situation where we are all in at the moment, when a possible regional conflict is in the offing, we just can’t afford to have another dose of rhetoric and deceit.

Our country has experienced enough “bullying” from our neighbor and only to find out this report that : “… the $892 million deepwater semi-submersible drilling platform (Ocean Petroleum 981) that China Daily reported as having left Shanghai on May 24, 2011 bound for the South China Sea. According to the China press, this is “the world’s most advanced super oil rig” capable of operating at a water depth of 3,000 meters and drilling depth of 12,000 meters, with nine power generators on the platform that can provide electricity for nearly 200,000 people. It took China three years to build this rig which is set to start operating in August.”

And, “China is already counting on the future oil to be drawn from the Spratlys to fuel China’s massive energy needs and it is deploying its lone aircraft carrier, newly-purchased from Russia, to the West Philippine Sea to protect it.” (Source: Telltale Signs: The Dragon and the Mosquito by Rodel Rodis posted @Fil-AmForum)

Now, we ask, what will happen now to the commitment of Beijing as “advocate to safeguard regional peace and stability and enhance mutual trust,” among nations in the region?

Can the aircraft carrier safeguard regional peace or just increase tension because obviously its purpose is to secure their super oil rig. And by next month, the world’s most advanced super oil rig by China will start to operate. How can this move “enhance mutual trust?”

Sadly, it only points to one thing, all our questions and maybe, the sentiment of all patriotic Filipinos that there’s no such thing as China’s claim of peaceful development and soft power. I hope that the persistent rumor of a sell out in 2005 is not true. Was there really a secret bilateral agreement duly signed in China and witnessed by our consulate to explore the Reed Bank? This contract was reportedly different from the tripartite deal of JMSU with China and Vietnam.

It is up to us and the rest of the region’s country claimants to be ever vigilant in order to avoid a regional conflict and share the bounty which is God given black gold....

Fish in Troubled Waters

2011-07-10T19:54:00.001-07:00

Fish in Troubled Waters
By Erick San Juan

The three-day visit of our Department of Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario to Beijing is said to be fruitful because the two countries reaffirmed their commitment to respect and abide by the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed by China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2002.

In a joint statement, DFA Sec. del Rosario and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi “agreed to further strengthen the bonds and friendship and cooperation between the two countries and to fully implement the Joint Action Plan.” (Aurea Calica, Phil. Star 7/10/11)

This is a welcome development amidst the growing tensions in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea and a positive sign before the state visit of PNoy to China sometime in August or early September. Actually, it is the main intention of Sec. del Rosario’s visit to China – to resolve the Spratly issue.

The Philippines, through the efforts of PNoy’s administration, adheres to peaceful means of finding solutions to the SCS’ disputes that will be beneficial to all.

But then again, pundits and observers from different camps are trying to find ways of reaching the attention of PNoy, specifically Uncle Sam’s “intervention” in solving the SCS disputes.

To quote, at the 113th anniversary of the Department of Foreign Affairs as reported by Johanna Paola D. Poblete - “However, the President clarified that foreign policy for the Philippines -- even in accepting or providing help to treaty ally United States -- is still geared towards what is advantageous to the Philippines."

“We chart our own foreign policy. It so happen that in this particular case, there was a convergence between the Americans and ours with regard to the West Philippine Sea. There’s a convergence of objectives by both sovereign countries."

“So it does not sit well with me when somebody says that we closely align, meaning we abrogate our charting of our own foreign policies to that of another country. That is not permissible. Now we will chart our foreign policy based on the interest of the Philippines,” said President Aquino.

Very well said but action is better than mere words or rhetoric, Mr. President.

This country needs concrete actions geared towards what is beneficial to all of us as a sovereign nation. We can never be called an independent country if we are always perceived to be just another “loyal ally” in the region.

PNoy’s administration has to prove once and for all that we don’t just kowtow to the “big brother’s whim”. Precious lives are at stake here. When it comes to foreign policy, we have to play our cards well. Yes, we admit the fact that US is our long-term partner and in any partnership, but it should be a two-way street – no more, no less. We must be persistent to remind our “partner” that they should give what is due us. Historically, we have come a long way in this “international partnership” and must be wary this time not to be shortchange, again.

If US President Barack Obama is true to his words in describing “the Philippines as a key voice in the region that is well-positioned to lead efforts to address such challenges as climate change, global pandemics, and non-proliferation," and that ----

“The Philippines has a vital role in “ensuring that the region’s evolving architecture advances peace, security, and economic opportunity." (This message was relayed to Philippine Ambassador to the US, Jose Cuisia Jr., who presented his credentials to the US President at the White House last Friday as reported by JE and GMA News.) It is but proper for the US government to treat us well and be consistent in their commitment to support us in times that we need them.

In these very interesting times, we can never be sure of what will happen next. Despite the efforts of our neighbors in the region to avoid an impending regional conflict, there are rhetorics and irritants which could lead to a shooting war. At the Manila Conference on the South China Sea organized by the DFA, NDCP, Foreign Service Institute and the DA of Vietnam, Dr. Shen Hong Fang reiterated the warning of Chinese vice Foreign Minister Cui Tian-kai that the "U.S. is not the South China Sea claim sovereign country, so it has to stay away from these disputes and don't play with fire." We must all be wary and vigilant for a possible clash between two elephants because we could possibly be “a fish in troubled waters” in the process.

SCS : Too Risky to Tread?

2011-07-04T17:41:00.001-07:00

SCS : Too Risky to Tread?
By Erick San Juan

In the history of maritime navigation, particularly on the British imperial navigational charts, most parts of the South China Sea with all its small islands, rocks, reefs and low-tide elevations was once considered as hazards to ships and other marine vessels . It was actually called the “Dangerous Grounds” and perceived as very risky for sea navigation. (Source : Is the South China Sea a new ‘Dangerous Ground’ for US-China rivalry? By Chengxin Pan, Deakin University)

It still holds true today but in a different perspective.

It is still perceived as the “Dangerous Grounds” but now it is different, it is now man-made, the area was transformed into a garrison. Claimants on the SCS’ disputed areas had put up or reinforced their military presence that made the region as the most contested area in the world. Fears of a brewing regional conflict intensified as the United States shifted its naval forces in the said area and renewed its support to some of its allies.

As an observer of events, this building up of tensions in the region can be associated to the economic realities being experienced by the key players – US and China.

To quote from - “Is the Chinese Economy Sputtering for the Same Reasons as the American Economy?” by Washington's Blog :

And Charles Hugh Smith argues:

Despite their many differences, the economies of China and the U.S. share a number of key traits: both are corrupt, rigged, crony-capitalist, rely on phony statistics and propaganda and operate with two sets of rules: one for the elites and another for the masses.

Lou Jiwei - the chairman of China’s sovereign wealth fund, recently told a forum organized by the Brookings Institution and the Chinese Economists 50 Forum, a Beijing think-tank that:

Both China and America are addressing bubbles by creating more bubbles and we’re just taking advantage of that. While Americans are focused on the bursting of the American housing bubble, the bubble in residential and commercial real estate was global, including China.

And ….

As Northwestern University's Victor Shih points out, the Chinese government will slowly reveal more and more of the true ratio of bad loans to good loans, and raise its figures for local government debt. Shih says that recapitalizing Chinese banks to cover losses for the bad loans will eat up more and more of China's reserves.

The Telegraph noted last June:

China's chief auditor has warned that high levels of local government debt could derail the country's economy, with some observers suggesting that a number of Chinese provinces are even more fiscally-troubled than Greece. (Ibid)

The abovementioned 'quotable quotes' are just some reports that world economies are failing to see especially US and even China. Such situation could possibly push them to look for an outside enemy and create war in the process.

The world had experienced wars of great magnitude in contemporary history and for sure if such world war will happen now, God forbid, it would be a mutually assured destruction (MAD) due to nuclear armaments.

Currently, word wars coming from the claimants in the SCS are actually not helping to ease the tensions. Added to this is the “show of force” by all camps near the contested area and the never-ending naval military exercises aggravated by the presence of the US.

Sadly, our country seems to be taken for a ride here by Uncle Sam, promising military assistance and full support while in reality we are paying for these military junks and for the training of our soldiers using possibly the royalties we get from Malampaya.

Our nation is gradually falling for the trap and we are giving way for another conflict not of our choosing. The worst, even the media is being manipulated to release the photos and information about the war capability of the US in preparation for the so called "Balikatan" military exercises. The chinese, both our local and from China, whether we like it or not are intrigued and agitated. We never learn our lessons from history and worst we tend to repeat it.

Proxy War and Gunboat Diplomacy

2011-06-25T18:23:00.001-07:00

Proxy War and Gunboat Diplomacy
By Erick A. San Juan

Overheard over the radio, some pundit’s comments on how diplomacy is currently working to avoid any conflict in the South China Sea. Diplomats are actually using rhetorics, doublespeak and play of words. As if the world, especially the media are being taken on a whirlwind ride on what to report and to believe from the statements coming from the different camps involved in the issue surrounding the SCS disputes. If that is how the “game” is being played, are we going to get along with it as long as we know how to benefit from it?

Like in the case of Olongapo City where the Mayor himself, our good friend James Gordon is once again open to the idea that his city should take advantage of the impending 40 percent US military buildup in the Pacific and make Subic be home again of the American forces.

To quote : “There’s nothing wrong with the bases. If you are talking about $15 billion in investments, if you are the mayor of a city and you are visited by the appropriations committee chairman and vice chairman of the US Senate, I guess you would entice them (in)to coming here.” (Source: The Subic Examiner 6.15.2011)

We wrote last May 2 (Testing the Water Might Lead to Its Boiling Point which can be read from www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) of the so-called visit of the two senior US senators and how the different sectors of our society have speculated the possible return of the US bases, particularly in Subic. Accusations from the various sectors came out of how the visit was shrouded with secrecy of its real motive.

Coming from the Mayor himself, he said - “Do you think the Pentagon will tell us what their strategy is? Of course not. But why are they visiting, why would the chairman and vice chairman of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee visit Subic on a special flight?” he asked.

Gordon said the plane that took Inouye to Subic also landed in Guam but the senator did not step down from the aircraft there. “Here, they looked at the seaport and the airport,” he said. “Can you read between the lines?” (Ibid)

He was sure with his statements because the interview was done after he returned from his US trip and that according to him, some US officials informed him of the planned military buildup in the Pacific.

It is very clear that Uncle Sam is getting impatient and could not afford to waste much time on the fate of their military bases in Japan and in Guam, as China is slowly inching it's way to become the region’s superpower.

In the recently concluded 2+2 meeting in Washington attended by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Robert Gates with their counterparts, Japan Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and Japan Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto, they reaffirmed their commitment to the Guam military buildup and extended a 2014 deadline for the completion of a new air station needed to "the earliest possible date after 2014." (Source: www.guambuildupnews.com)

But from now until that "earliest possible date after 2014", Washington had to realign around 30,000 forces from Afghanistan throughout Asia Pacific. Even the Nato is wondering why the urgency? And where else do we think they will deploy such big number of US forces? Your guess is good as mine. This is the basis of the Olongapo mayor, need we say more?

Actually, the planned Annual RP-US Mutual Defense Board (MDB) meeting (tentatively set in the middle of August this year) in Hawaii will tackle the review of the Mutual Defense Treaty and the US access to its former Philippines-based military bases at Subic and Clark which the US abandoned in 2001 after Manila refused to renew a lease deal with Washington. Now economic zones, Subic and Clark boast US-built ports and airports which could be of strategic importance both amid mounting tensions with China over the Spratly Islands and Washington's wider aim to contain China's strategic rise. (Source: US-Philippines flex collective muscle by Al Labita @www.atimes.com)

As we are experiencing more of Uncle Sam’s rhetoric of its intention to modernize our AFP, translation – disposing decommissioned military junks to AFP, and the so-called “soft power” of Beijing (but actually engaging in “gunboat diplomacy”), we have to be very wary. If we are going to play both US and China cards, we have to play it well or else we will be shortchange again, and worst, be the pawn in their proxy war.

Underneath the Rhetoric and Doublespeak…

2011-06-19T19:08:00.001-07:00

Underneath the Rhetoric and Doublespeak…
By Erick San Juan

For us who has been observing the events unfolding in the contested areas of the South China Sea , we have been bombarded with word wars already before any real conflict starts. As I monitor the different pronouncements from various camps, there seems to be no real solution in sight. For they are all talk and more talk (Translation – rhetoric and doublespeak).

We heard so many times already that Beijing (and so are the other claimants) will abide by the Declaration on the Code of Conduct, meaning, all disputes should be resolve in a peaceful way. But, all we can see are military build up in the region. Isn't this doublespeak?

As what General Liang Guanglie, China ’s Minister of National Defense said in his speech at the Shangri-la Dialogue recently :

"The past few years have seen a rapid socio-economic development in China and correspondingly, progress in its defense and military modernization. However, such progress is within the legitimate need of self-defense. It is reiterated in China ’s latest defense white paper that “ China adheres to a defense policy that is purely defensive in nature”, “whether at present or in the future, no matter how developed it may be, China will never seek hegemony or military expansion.” This is a solemn pledge made by the Chinese government to the international community as well as all people of Chinese origin around the world. It is a strategic choice made by the Chinese government based on its fundamental interest and the trend of times. It reflects the continuity and consistency of such a defensive nature."

Chinese President Hu Jintao, in his state visit to the US (as reported by Daily Mail Reporter last January 22, 2011) told the American audience the same thing while President Barack Obama has also expressed similar concerns regarding the military build up of China.

But Hu dismissed the concerns and urged the U.S. to treat China 'with respect and as equals'.

'China-U.S. relations will enjoy smooth and steady growth when the two countries handle well issues involving each other's major interests,' he said.

'Otherwise, our relations will suffer constant trouble or even tension.'

He told the U.S.-China Business Council: 'We will remain committed to the path of peaceful development. We do not engage in an arms race, we are not a military threat to any country. China will never seek to dominate or pursue an expansionist policy.’

The abovementioned reports signified the confluence of interests of the two superpowers in the Asia-Pacific region. No tension or even conflict will happen if they will respect each other’s “interests”.

But how about the interests of the rest of the countries occupying the said region? Don’t they have the right or interests to protect?

Like in our situation as a sovereign state, we have our own interest to protect too. If the saber rattling in the disputed area in the South China Sea will continue to be used as a way for the superpowers to "deceive" the world, then, we are heading for a mutually assured destruction, whether we like it or not.

Even if Uncle Sam will keep on saying that he will support our country in times of trouble, let us be wary and learn to read between the lines. We never learn from history on how many times we were shortchanged (through some of our leaders/collaborators). It’s about time to get our acts together and use our assets to get what's due us as a staunch ally.

As for the rest of the world, when are we going to realize that underneath the rhetoric and doublespeak of the superpowers lie the deceit and manipulation by working on both sides of the fence. We have to remind everyone that every time that the big power centers suffer from economic and/or financial turmoil from within, the elite pushes politicians and the military to go to war to unite their people instead of civil war in the process.

Remember : from Carl von Clausewitz (“On War”) - “War is a continuation of politics by other means.”

A 'perfect storm' of fiscal deficits in so many countries could lead to a global financial crisis. According to New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, this ongoing global financial meltdown is catastrophic.

There is really a vicious design to push the world to go to war. Firstly, the masterminds create the situation. Then destroy the economies of nation states. Sow fear and terror. Sacrifice some of it's nationals and brainwashed them to fight a perceived enemy. Remind their constituents that it is their patriotic and moral duty to fight wars as a supreme sacrifice. Sounds familiar? Wake up!

Shangri-la Dialogue, Better than War

2011-06-13T03:06:00.001-07:00

Shangri-la Dialogue, Better than War
By Erick A. San Juan

The three-day Shangri-La Dialogue in its tenth year has served its goals of building confidence and fostering practical security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region where defense ministers, permanent heads of Ministries and military chiefs of 28 major Asia-Pacific states attended and participated in dialogues.

The idea for the forum came from its current director-general and chief executive, Sir John Chipman in 2001. Since then, the said event is held every year by London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, and assisted by the Singaporean Defense Ministry. Hence, the forum gets its name from the Shangri-La hotel in Singapore where it has been held since 2002.

The world has gone through world wars and many regional wars and had experienced its devastating effects to humanity. That is why the Shangri-la Dialogue, which is one of the largest and most important security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region has taken that giant step forward towards peace and security in the region. Amidst rising tensions in the South China Sea, defense ministers of the region, with all diplomacy, did their part as advocates of peace in order to come out with solutions during bilateral meetings.

But this year’s security forum can only do so much and the rest of the task at hand is left with each delegate to accomplish with mutual respect and cooperation with the rest of the countries in the region.

There are still so many issues that are left to be resolve by each country and one of these is the disputed areas in the South China Sea. Our Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin did his part by reminding our neighbors in the region that every dispute can be solve, no matter how complicated, as long as there is respect for each other and bullying one’s neighbor will not help.

According to recent reports, the Department of Foreign Affairs reiterated the Philippines’ rules-based approach to ending the dispute.

It has proposed the concept of a Zone of Peace, Freedom, Friendship and Cooperation in which disputed territories could be recognized from undisputed areas as provided under international law.

“The Philippines has offered a specific framework for the resolution of differences and the pursuit of cooperation in the form of the ZOPFFC,” said Malaya.

In the ZOPFFC, the disputed islands could be “enclaved” by segregating them and adjacent waters from the rest of the waters of the South China Sea.

The DFA has said the enclaved area could be designated as a Joint Cooperation Area where joint activities could be conducted, such as marine scientific research, search and rescue operations, oil spill preparedness and conservation projects. (Phil. Daily Inquirer 6/11/2011)

This new proposal by our government, together with the efforts in the Shangri-la Dialogue only proves that there are more choices in finding solutions to any disputes. Any endeavor that will create more tensions and word wars among the concerned countries in the region should not be permitted so that peace will reign in the area.

Despite the belief of some quarters that no amount of diplomatic efforts will stop parties of interests from intrusion into our territories, it is very clear that the likes of the Shangri-la Dialogue and other undertakings promoting peace are far much better than engaging in a regional war, and maybe another world war in the process.

Let us remain vigilant and hope that every nation in the region will adhere to peaceful means.

DND Sec. Gazmin at IISS-Need Experts Like Him!

2011-06-06T14:58:00.000-07:00

DND Sec. Gazmin at IISS-Need Experts Like Him!
By Erick San Juan

No matter how negative is the perception of the Palace people to opinion writers and columnists, we can’t help say our piece to this new appointment made by President Noy to a very crucial post. We are just doing our job as the messenger in airing the public’s sentiment on very controversial and timely issues.

Domingo Lee, according to what was written on April 15 at Ellen Tordesillas’ blog that : “But family friendship might work for another ambassador to China aspirant: Domingo Lee, whose only qualification for that very important post is, he is a friend of the Aquino family. A source said the one pushing Lee’s appointment is Eldon Cruz, husband of presidential sister Ballsy Cruz. We wonder why.”

Yes, we are wondering why “family friend” is now considered as an important part in one’s application paper to get a government post. Or was it the usual trend? Just asking.

And according to news report that - “What we gather is that he has no experience in foreign affairs,” a senior diplomat told the Tribune. “He would probably have to undergo on the job training to learn the ropes of diplomacy, the challenges of the maritime conflict we are now facing against China and other policy issues.”

In this crucial point in Manila’s relations with China, it is important to have a competent ambassador who can handle complex diplomatic and international issues and is aggressive enough to uphold the country’s national interest.

“We would have been more comfortable if a career ambassador had been nominated instead by the President,” the diplomat said.

Amid several reported Chinese incursions in the Spratlys, the Philippine Embassy in China has been without an ambassador since February, following the recall of another political appointee and businessman Francisco Benedicto. (The Tribune 6-5-2011)

We were right all along, in the midst of the brewing conflict in the South China Sea, there is nobody minding the store (so to speak). For over three months now and yet no ambassador to Beijing? And then we will hear that the Palace has appointed a “family friend”? We were told that Lee is more closer to Taiwan than to China. He's even a party member of ROC's Kuomintang.

Are we that confident enough to face China because Uncle Sam is behind us? Please think again!

We have been saying all along that what we don’t have in military powers, we can do with the right foreign policy i.e. defense policy through diplomacy and having the right person on the post who knows geopolitics/geostrategy.

The President together with the people in his loop should know this and need not be told. In the era of high technology and cyber war, we just can’t afford to be sitting (and sleeping) on a very important post – the ambassador to China.

This is our fight for the sake of the nation’s interest and should not rely much on the Big Brother’s help. Everything can be resolved through peaceful means with the right person ON THE JOB. I am emphasizing the phrase 'on the job', not on another 'job trainee'.

We have wasted several months already and any mistake might lead us to a mutually assured destruction if we will not be cautious.

The Shangri-la Dialogue

The recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue which I attended and our Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin was one of the resource speaker, has served its purpose of coming together top government and military officials, political analysts and top caliber think tank groups to discuss issues like regional and world security.

The Shangri-La Dialogue is an inter-governmental security forum. It's hosted every year by London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, and assisted by the Singaporean Defense Ministry.

The forum gets its name from the elegant Shangri-La hotel in Singapore where it has been held since 2002. The idea for the forum came from it's hard working and cheerful director-general and chief executive, Sir John Chipman in 2001. Asia Pacific defense ministers could engage in dialogue aimed at building confidence and fostering practical security cooperation.

At present, the Shangri-La Dialogue is the only forum to gather defense ministers, permanent heads of Ministries and military chiefs of 28 major Asia-Pacific states.
Government delegations use the opportunity for bilateral meetings with other delegations on the sidelines.

Sec. Voltaire Gazmin as one of the resource speakers had the opportunity to tackle the South China Sea issue with China and with the other claimants.

It is very clear how important the role of a diplomat is, especially the country’s next ambassador to Beijing. Our good Defense Secretary has done his homework and has that much to portray in the Dialogue to help ease the tensions. We need officials like him. He is the right emissary that could help in ironing out the disputes.

May his tribe increase!

The Heat Is On

2011-05-30T20:41:00.000-07:00

The Heat Is On
By Erick San Juan

In the midst of the official declaration of our local weather bureau PAG-ASA that the rainy season is on, in the South China Sea, it’s the opposite. In the said region, the heat is on. We had experiences of being “harassed” and “buzzed” recently by our neighbor – China, one of the claimants in the disputed area in the South China Sea.

Such situation led to the statement of President Aquino III that : “When there’s an arms race, the potential for conflict is also heightened. Who will benefit from that?”

This nagging question from President Aquino III as he sees the possibility of such conflict to escalate as the claimants in the hottest contested area in the world has started upgrading their military capabilities.

It is very clear that China has every reason to increase its military spending this year because, “many Chinese analysts have deep-rooted suspicions and even apprehensions of American policy in the South China Sea. They believe that America's intention is to check China's rise and drive a wedge between China and South-east Asian claimant countries.” (Navigating a sea of conflicting claims by Zhang Mingliang & Yang Fang July 28, 2010)

But such show of force by Beijing has actually created an atmosphere of tension among the claimants and to the rest of the region as well, thus the possibility of an arms race in the process.

What concerns me most is the fact that the purchase of almost "junk" military equipments from the US and the reality of being Uncle Sam’s ally in this region are actually creating more problems than solutions to the growing tensions in the area.

I have written several articles in the past on how we are gradually being converted into a huge magnet in the region, attracting more enemies than friends. Also from the words of Sen. Miriam Santiago - we are like a lightning rod in Asia.

This dire situation we are in for quite some time now was aggravated with the existence of this agreement we entered into with Uncle Sam – the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).

Last May 27 (Friday), the SCRAP VFA! Movement has reiterated their firm stand to scrap/terminate the VFA through a forum, entitled: Twelve Years of the VFA: Boon or Bane? The speakers in the said forum were all for the termination of the VFA. They are Cong. Walden Bello (for Cong. Erin Tanada), former Senator Aquilino Pimentel, Atty. Evalyn Ursua (lawyer of Nicole in the Subic rape case) and the representative of Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Atty. Archimedes Gonzales.
It was announced in the forum that the Presidential Commission on the VFA declined the Movement’s invitation through the office of Exec. Sec. Paquito Ochoa. And when the invitation was forwarded to the VFA Commission through the office of Exec. Director Adan, it was again rejected. In short, no representative from the government.

This only shows that since the “comprehensive review” of the VFA by the two government commissions started sometime in October 2010, the public is still at a lost on the development of the said review. Why the secrecy? Are these two bodies doing their jobs?

I even invited Ms. Rebecca Thompson of the US Embassy to be a resource speaker at my Hotel Rembrandt Balitaan twice but she emailed that she has earlier commitments for the week. She gave the US Embassy website for anyone to see their activities and contribution to the government and the Filipinos. But cause-oriented groups, peoples organizations and other multi-sectoral groups like the SCRAP VFA! Movement will reportedly multiply to make their demand for the termination of the VFA, if this administration will not address the public’s cry to come up with an agreement that is more pro-Filipinos than pro-Americans.

We had enough of rhetoric and deceit from the past administrations. Too much secrecy only benefits the few who are more dealers than leaders.

The US as our long-term ally will not treat us badly if we will show them that we have self - respect as a sovereign nation. In the field of diplomacy and foreign relations, this administration still at a lost and as if nobody is minding the store.

We have to gather our acts together before the heat will reach its boiling point.

Laying the Predicate. . .

2011-05-23T06:43:00.000-07:00

Laying the Predicate. . .
By Erick San Juan

In the midst of the so-called VFA (Visiting Forces Agreement) review, the country is experiencing pressures in the guise of “friendly persuasion” from our long-time friends. In this tug-of-war scenario, we can’t do much as we are faced with the reality of a weak armed forces.

Even in the effort of modernizing the armed forces, Uncle Sam used this in the hope of building up the Filipinos’ trust and confidence towards "Big Brother". But in reality, we are the ones helping them by buying some decommissioned military junks that will “modernize” our AFP. What can we do? The 'dealers' inside the AFP has already enriched themselves through the years by the same fund that was supposed to modernize our armed forces.

This sad fate of our military has weakened the country’s stand on vital issues concerning our territory and opened all possibilities of being shortchanged in the process.

The much publicized purchased of the Hamilton-class cutter from the US Coast Guard and several other military equipments in the near future could mean something else from our neighbors especially on the issue of the contested area in the South China Sea. The fact is that all these modernization effort to secure our territory particularly in the Malampaya area, near the Spratlys, we should be sensitive enough not to invite trouble.
Translation – we cannot afford to be used as a pawn in a proxy war and be shortchanged at the same time just to please a “friend”. We never learned from our leaders in the past as they collaborated with the 'enemies' and has actually sold our sovereignty. People repeating history. . .

This administration has to be careful in handling controversial issues or else, we will all be dragged into a situation that we will all regret. Like the recent tour of President Noy Aquino and some of his cabinet men on board the USS Carl Vinson in the South China Sea, near the Philippine waters, it was against the standard procedures or protocol and was taken in a bad taste by most of us who knows the proper conduct in such a situation.

It is very clear that the confluence of events is leading towards something else and is actually adding more tension in the present undercurrents being experienced in the region.

The supposed “harassment” by Chinese patrol boats last March and the Chinese jet fighters that reportedly buzzed two Philippine Air Force (PAF) OV-10 Broncos on a routine reconnaissance patrol last week in the vicinity of the Kalayaan Island Group, part of the disputed Spratlys is like "laying the predicate" for a possible grim scenario.

Hopefully, the four-day visit of Gen. Liang Guanglie, China’s State Councilor and Minister of National Defense will iron out some misunderstandings and would really promote mutual trust and cooperation amid rising tensions over the Spratly Islands. But why the secrecy? Reportedly, no media was invited during the meeting.

As PNoy is doing a balancing act in the field of foreign relations, there is a brewing situation being orchestrated by a couple of cracky megalomaniac that is actually laying another predicate for a possible destabilization, if not checked. The information that we heard from the grapevine is that these people are planning another scenario that might create chaos. Knowing them, they can do it but people like us and other concerned individuals can always expose their sinister deeds so they won't be able to carry out such mischief.

We must be vigilant and watch out for these "bogus" anarchists in the guise of protecting democracy, they are actually the demo-
crazy.

Global War on Terror, Levels Up

2011-05-15T20:54:00.000-07:00

Global War on Terror, Levels Up
By Erick A. San Juan

If the death of Osama bin Laden has fooled the world into believing that we can all sleep soundly now, think again. "Zombie" bin Laden will continue to be the symbol of the continuing saga on the global war on terror (GWOT), dead or alive – he will remain the culprit.

The whole story, from the very start (right after September 11, 2001) is a script written to justify an outside enemy that will sow fear and terror in the process. Even after bin Laden’s so-called death, it was reported on the mainstream corporate media, here and around the world that al Qaida and its supporters will retaliate. So, this revenge and violence is somehow became a vicious cycle and remains the support system of GWOT.

Globalists propagandists have bombarded us with a daily dose of fear mongering this week through a prime time TV channel disguised as news report coming from the usual "propagandists", that jihadists like Zulkifli and other terrorists are now in the Philippines to sow terror. Even the Wall Street Journal leaked another report last week about the Al Qaeda's next "hellstorm" could be in Asia especially the Philippines. What amazes me is the timing of the arrival of USS Carl Vinson, the aircraft carrier that became the hearse of Osama Bin Laden. Hope that this is not part of the laying the predicate. As this synthetic anti-terrorism myth (term coined by Webster Tarpley) continues, state-sponsored terrorists will remain in our midst. The fact that it is artificial, what it needs are lies and more lies to sustain its existence.

Although the question of Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is something to consider – “How can Oceania continue if the declared enemy, Osama bin Laden, is dead. Big Brother must immediately invent another “enemy of the people.” And guess who could be the next possible “enemy of the people” according to Dr. Roberts? China.

In his article “China: The New Bin Laden, Orwell Wrote The Script”, he wrote – “Hillary (Clinton), of course, like the rest of the U.S. Government, is scared by the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report that China will be the most powerful economy in five years.”

“The hubris and arrogance of US policymakers, and the lies that they inculcate in the American public, have exposed Washington to war with the most populous country on earth, a country that has a military alliance with Russia, which has sufficient nuclear weapons to wipe out all life on earth. The scared 'idiots' in Washington are desperate to set up China as the new Osama bin Laden, the figure of two minutes of hate every news hour, so that the World’s Only Superpower can take out the Chinese before they surpass the US as the Number One Power.” (Ibid)

Dr. Roberts strongly worded article makes us more cautious when it comes to our foreign policies particularly in dealing with our “friends”.

What is in store for the Philippines in the near future after the “official death of bin Laden” is very crucial if we will take heed of Dr. Roberts’ words. It is not farfetched that the next bin Laden could be China…. Or Iran? The point is – the globalist elite badly needs another outside enemy whether we like it or not.

With Japan still recovering from a triple disaster, our country is the next in line as Uncle Sam’s “loyal ally” in the region who will be the witting tool via the leadership of a perceived 'Amboy' to continue the open ended war on terror.

It is very clear in the New US Military Strategy issued in February 8 of this year - calling for the development of a force that is more focused on Asia, where the document says economic and military power are growing, and the strategic environment is changing quickly.

From the words of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen that he wrote in his “Chairman’s Corner” blog : “The US faces a broad range of challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, from the rise of India and China, to North Korea’s nuclear program, the shifting global economic balance and a fierce competition for natural resources.”

The strategy calls for improving global security by forging deeper military-to-military relationships and cooperation with China and other Asia-Pacific countries.

The senior officer said the US military had to “achieve our mission” in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also must look beyond those conflicts and “start recognizing that the strategic environment that’s elsewhere needs to be dealt with.” (Reuters)

With this new strategy by Washington, nations in this region should be on the lookout for another conflict that we never wanted.

Dilly dally approach on the review of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) by the Palace commission is another delaying tactic, translation – we are approaching the next level of the GWOT and a possible grim scenario is in the offing. Is the palace waiting for something that will justify the need for the retention of the VFA, hook, line and sinker? Just asking.

Confluence of Interests?

2011-05-09T08:58:00.000-07:00

Confluence of Interests?
By Erick San Juan

The recently concluded 18th ASEAN Summit held in Indonesia was generally successful based on the reported results which was summarized in ten major issues that were agreed upon by its members.

It was very clear that peace and security in the region is the utmost goal of the ASEAN members because these are the pillars of development. That is why every member helped in finding solutions to the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia.

What worries me is the stability of the region, by addressing the issue peacefully on the disputed area in the South China Sea. The ASEAN region (and the rest of the world) is still in the wait and see mode for a possible scenario that might trigger a regional conflict. I am not an alarmist but the Asians are very well aware of several events in the past wherein China has shown its rather unusual behavior in treating its neighbors when it comes to the issue of that “contested area.”

Why unusual? China is promoting the peaceful solution to the said dispute and even reminded ASEAN members/claimants of adherence to the Declaration on the Code of Conduct. But Beijing’s actions on certain incidence were somehow different. Like the Philippine experience in early March of a reported “harassment” by Chinese patrol boats on oil exploration vessels.

To co-exist peacefully, every nation should take into consideration the situation of less powerful sovereign states. Bullying a neighbor could create a grim scenario and may drag the whole region in a mutually assured destruction,

I have mentioned in recent past the analysis of some geostrategists on the significance of China’s aircraft carrier to be sailing in the South China Sea.

According to Admiral Robert Willard, Chief of the US Pacific Command, the deployment of China‘s first aircraft carrier will bring a significant “change in perception” in the balance of power in the Asian region. He also put emphasis on China’s massive military build-up that includes the rapid development of ballistic missiles. (AP)

The unprecedented economic (and military) rise of China in recent decades led them to look for outside sources of natural resources – especially hydrocarbon for their growing energy needs. They don’t have to look far, as the contested area in the South China Sea is believed to have very rich minerals – oil and natural gas. Obviously, this could be one of the reasons why the “bully thy neighbor” attitude of Beijing is in effect.

Aside from the fact that the SCS is one of the busiest waterways in the world where hundreds of tankers and cargo vessels passed through everyday. And, this is the reality why Uncle Sam has also made his presence felt in the region that made China uncomfortable and rethink its military position.

The brewing tensions in this region has various undercurrents played by both powerful and less powerful nations to serve their country’s interests.

Summits, conferences and similar meetings of sovereign nations could only do much to solve conflicts and of coming together in addressing possible solutions economically. Although in reality, the real interest of every country is in its advantage and how they will be going to achieve this without any prejudice to their neighbors.

The hidden agenda of the powerful nations will soon come out and our country and the rest of Asia should be on their guard and be wary of the possible confluence of events. Real interests will surface and friendly relations might suffer in the process if we will let them have their way.

2011-05-04T04:39:00.000-07:00

The Greatest Lie Ever Told
By Erick San Juan

“Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it and eventually they will believe it.”

A quote from a Adolf Hitler which is very much applicable to the world’s greatest lie ever told - the death of Osama bin Laden and the resuscitation of the overstretched and overused global war on terror (GWOT).

GWOT has surpassed all other false flag operations in contemporary history, in length and in the scope of damage to humanity worldwide. Osama, its symbol was conveniently used time and again since the September 11 terror attack by its spin masters led by Uncle Sam’s chicken hawks and war mongers, backed by the coalition of the willing. Unfortunately, our country was one of the witting tool used in such propaganda under the Arroyo administration that has made her the coordinator for Asia in the GWOT.

As an observer of events unfolding in the global arena, I have written several articles already on Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda group and one of the significant ones I have included here that I mentioned (again) was in January 2008 :

"Strange as it may seem, Bhutto was murdered after she had an interview with David Frost of BBC which was never aired and viewed thru BBC international TV network but can be seen through YouTube.com, and exposed what has been common knowledge in Pakistan--- that Osama bin Laden had been dead for six long years.

There is a basis for suspicions that Bhutto's murder was the product of the confluence not only of events but also of interests, with the US militarists and the Pakistani fascists agreeing that her revelation about bin Laden's demise was a fatal mistake that must not be replicated. Only death would ensure that Bhutto would not repeat the mistake.

It was very clear that bin Laden died on December 13, 2001, with this excerpt from my August 2007 article :

If I may recall, President Bush, Jr. made a statement after the Tora Bora heavy bombing (many believed that bin Laden died in his mountain air conditioned safe house) at the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan wherein he made specific claims that America is safer as a result of his military action. To quote – “The World is changing for the better because of American Leadership. America is safer today because we are leading the world. Afghanistan was once the home of al Qaeda. Now terror camps are closed, democracy is rising and the American people are safer.” Even Pakistan and Afghan newspaper accounts of Osama's death were published on December 15,2001.

Since the May 2 announcement of bin Laden’s death by President Obama, a lot has been written by patriots around the world using the internet especially through social media networks like Facebook. Revisiting hundreds of videos online through youtube.com posted by the different 9/11 truth seekers and movements around the world.

What concerns me most is how this new (overused) spin will affect us Filipinos in a time when interesting events are gradually unfolding. Us, Filipinos should be vigilant against the manufactured stories on the GWOT because in our midst are people especially from the corporate media who are witting tools to deceive and dumb down the populace.

It is very clear that important issues are on the table when it comes to our national security vis-à-vis our foreign policy that will be directly affected with this recent lie. Like the controversial Visiting Forces Agreement and the reported virtual US military bases in the south are matters that need to be addressed by the government or we will all be taken for a ride and suffered the consequences.

There is too much undercurrents going especially our relation with our Asian neighbors that had to be taken up with the expertise of a good geopolitical strategist that for me is still nowhere in sight. Sadly, after a year of this leadership, still as if nobody is minding the store.

One false decision through lack of transparency, this administration will surely lose its credibility and may lead to its downfall (the president should be vigilant) because the lives of every Filipino is at stake here and much more of our sovereignty.

There is still time to rethink our stand against this greatest lie in human history. We have to choose – are we going to rally behind the war mongers or we will make a firm stand against them?

Let us all be victors in this war against terror lies and be instruments of truth this time..

2011-05-02T06:32:00.000-07:00

Testing the Water Might Lead to Its Boiling Point
By Erick San Juan

In the midst of a very hot season, the country is now being faced with various hot issues, one after another. Alongside are problems very close to every Filipino’s grumbling stomach, the reason why there is a growing number of hot-headed individuals nowadays.

One hot issue came out just recently, as reported by one of the leading broadsheets, that US Senators Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) and William Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi) visited the country for a “possible return of the US naval base in Subic.”

The timing of the so-called visit of the two solons from the US Senate is really suspicious and has raised a lot of speculations from all sectors of the society, even if the good US Embassy press attaché Rebecca Thompson has denied the said rumor.

The nature of such matter should not be taken lightly especially now that the Visiting Forces Agreement is undergoing a “comprehensive review” by the reorganized review commission under the Office of the President. Possibilities of such various speculations can be incorporated one way or another in the review of the VFA if this present administration will not practice transparency.

The rest of us will be caught unaware because Uncle Sam is so desperately in need of more naval bases in this part of the region as Japan is slowly coming out of the ruins of the past triple calamity that shook them terribly. Even the Guamanians are resisting the new military installations there.

As what I have written in my past articles, Japan’s political life has been altered several times to please Uncle Sam when it comes to the issue of the US marine base in Okinawa. But it was already decided and the planned transfer of the US marine base from Okinawa to Guam is underway until the disaster happened.

All eyes are now on the Philippines for a perceived comeback of a US naval base that could produce a man-made calamity and turn the country into a magnet that will attract a regional conflict in the process.

The timing is right as events unfold after the March incident of a reported “harassment” by Chinese patrol boats in the Reed Bank near the Spratlys where an oil exploration is ongoing that led to the diplomatic protest filed by the Philippines before the United Nations.

Followed by the announcement of the Department of Energy and the Department of National Defense that will seek assistance from the US in training forces that will safeguard the exploration in the said area. And from the Malampaya royalties, the country will purchase from the US three blue water ships, helicopters, six to seven radar systems all across Mindanao and Palawan.

Whether we like it or not, these developments are really inviting trouble. We have to be careful or else we will be in a situation that can lead us all to a mutually assured destruction, as I always keep on reminding this government and the populace.

Could it be that the said visit of the two elder senators from the US Senate Appropriations committee was to test the water, so to speak and make it appear that they are here “to see the economic progress in the Subic Freeport area that has been made over the years and to ask how the US can collaborate”?

Remember, Uncle Sam is not our enemy, but we have to be wary in dealing with them for any possibilities to becoming a pawn in a regional war game. As the old saying, "If you cannot leak them, join them." But, we have to get what's due us this time. Whether we like it or not, we are engage and never let history of double cross repeat itself.

“Taken for a ride” in the SCS

2011-04-23T06:44:00.000-07:00

“Taken for a ride” in the SCS

By Erick San Juan

After seven months since the PNoy administration reorganizes the Presidential Commission on the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) there are still no concrete actions (so far) as to the status of the so-called review. And now the Palace, through its spokesperson Edwin Lacierda came out with a statement that the Commission is now reviewing the “jurisdiction” aspect of the said agreement. Meaning this jurisdiction aspect review is just a reaction to the call of Rep. Erin Tanada to terminate the VFA who is a Liberal Party member where the Chairman is the President himself.

Just recently, House Deputy Speaker and Quezon Rep. Lorenzo “Erin” Tañada III calls for the termination of the RP-US agreement through the proposed joint congressional resolution. This should post concern to the administration because Rep. Tanada is also an LP member meaning the call for the VFA termination is beyond party affiliation.

On the latter part of last year, Sen. Miriam Santiago also filed the Senate Resolution to amend/abrogate the VFA. For twelve years since the Senate ratified the VFA, it seems that it was more for the benefit of Uncle Sam than to the Filipinos.

It was also in November of last year when Executive Secretary Paquito “Jojo” Ochoa Jr., chairman of the presidential commission on the VFA defended the VFA before the legislative oversight committee on the visiting forces agreement (LOVFA). He said that “Our defense partnership with the US plays a vital role in enhancing Philippine national security, maintaining regional peace and stability and promoting economic development.”

Translation – this statement is pure “chubibo” (spin).

But if we will analyze the confluence of events in the South China Sea, it was repeatedly noted that Beijing is not comfortable with Washington’s insistence of meddling in the disputes among the claimants in the contested area. With the reported existence of a virtual US military base in the island of Balabac (via the VFA) near Palawan, near the Spratly islands, the aim of maintaining peace and stability in the region is a big farce. The sought after

peace in the region can never be achieved if there will be no transparency between and among the ASEAN members and China.

As for our national security vis-à-vis the country’s economic development, we can achieve this even without the VFA. It was actually a big paradox that the presence of the US troops in Mindanao for over a decade now through the VFA has brought more terrorists activities than before. It was supposed to curb such activities but after twelve years, its still the same.

It is high time to really have a genuine review of this Visiting Forces Agreement and analyze its benefits (if any). As I always say, we have been shortchanged with the secret dealings of this country’s past leaders, we just cannot afford another one. There is too much to give up – our sovereignty or what was still left of it, and a possible regional conflict and be a pawn to a proxy war that has been brewing for quite some time now.

The Joint Resolution filed by Rep. Erin Tanada is a wake up call on PNoy’s leadership to take a firm stand on the fate of the VFA for the true benefit of the country.

The rest of us must be vigilant as to what this comprehensive review will all lead us to or we will all be taken for a ride towards a war courtesy of our “friends”.

Why am I so "makulit" regarding this issue? Americans are our friends but just like any lover, we don't have to spoil them. They will level with us if we will be united and will have self respect. We still have patriots in the government service. I hope and pray that they will advocate a Philippines with leaders who will talk "turkey" with the imperialists and get what's due us. God save the Philippines!

Doublespeak

2011-04-19T20:53:00.001-07:00

Doublespeak
By Erick San Juan

“China has indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and adjacent waters.”

“China owns sovereignty and jurisdiction over the related sea area, seabed and subsoil.”

And

“The sovereignty of China over the South China Sea and related rights and jurisdiction are well-grounded from both historical and legal perspectives.”

The statements mentioned above are the usual pronouncement of the Chinese government when the issue of the disputed islands in the South China Sea is being raised.

If all the claimants will protest that the said contested area is theirs under historical and legal perspectives, a grim scenario is in the offing.

As in the case of the Philippines, our government filed a diplomatic protest (last April 5) before the UN Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, asserting that the sprawling portion of the Spratlys that we are claiming — called the Kalayaan Island Group or KIG — is an integral part of our territory, and we have “sovereignty and jurisdiction” over that area.

The diplomatic protest was filed due to the reported March 2 “harassment” by two Chinese patrol boats on the Department of Energy oil exploration vessel in the Reed Bank near the Spratlys.

Furthermore, the Philippines questioned China's sweeping claims laid out in its "nine-dotted line" claim over the entire South China Sea submitted to the U.N. in 2009. Actually, Malaysia and Vietnam had earlier filed their protests against China's claim. Meaning, this "nine-dotted line" claim over the entire South China Sea by Beijing is really out of tune in the eyes of the rest of the claimants.

But then again, the usual line (aka rhetoric) from Beijing that they will abide by the rules of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and committed to maintaining peace and stability in the area. And that they will assure all of us of a peaceful resolution to any disputes. But why the harassment? Is this doublespeak? Just asking.

In a paid ad by The South East Asian Sea Foundation at the Manila Times dated April 18,2011 entitled "The South China Dispute: Smaller Nations need to Raise Their Game", It even advised the Philippines to join Vietnam,Malaysia and Indonesia in asserting that the Spratly's don't deserve EEZ's or continental shelves of their own or at least deserve little of these maritime zones. The nations concerned must never forget that "united they stand,divided they fall."

In a civilized world of diplomacy, we all want peace and security. No room for bloody confrontations, that is why the diplomatic protest was filed before an international body like the United Nations to resolve all disputes in a peaceful way.

The undercurrents between Beijing and the rest of the ASEAN members seems to be growing instead of easing the tensions as what is being stated in the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. We are not an alarmist but this could be a wake-up call to PNoy’s administration to play his Beijing card well. Or we can all be dragged into a regional conflict of a possible proxy war between China and Uncle Sam.

As of this writing, the supposed Beijing visit of PNoy next month was put off (again?) and was set tentatively in the later part of this year. The reason was not told by the Palace and the rest of us will be in the wait and see mode as transparency is again being clouded with perceived problems now faced by this administration.

Let us all be vigilant because the old practice of secrecy seems to be the agenda of the government.

Philippines-In the Middle of a Geostrategical Fault Line

2011-04-12T07:46:00.001-07:00

Philippines-In the Middle of a Geostrategical Fault Line
By Erick San Juan

Since the March 11, a triple disaster hit Japan, then a major fault line has emerged-the new geostrategical fault line. It is a fact that Japan is a very close and important ally of Uncle Sam in this region. Although, a year before the said disaster, tensions between Japan and the US escalated due to the relocation of the US Marine base in Okinawa that even led to the resignation of its Prime Minister. Now that the said base will be transferred completely to Guam by 2014, it would be a question of who will control the maritime supremacy in the region.

Eyes are now focused in the Philippines with Japan now coping of what was left after the triple disaster. It will take a decade for the Japanese to rise again and it will be a very costly one.

There are several factors that put us in a tight situation when it comes to our relations with both Beijing and Washington. Even if the present administration is doing a balancing act, we cannot do away with the past administration’s reported “secret deals” with these two giants.

To our regular followers, both in our writings and on the airwaves, we discussed and wrote about the importance of our country in the region’s geopolitical play. As was always written in history books, our location is strategically situated where major chokepoints transverse.

Added to this is the fact that we are one of the major claimants in the disputed areas in the South China Sea. Furthermore, this dispute over the contested area is not just among the ASEAN members and China but also of the US. Why is this so?

Geographically speaking, both the Philippines and China, and so is the rest of the ASEAN members are permanent residents of the region while the US does not. But the fact remains that there are permanent American interests in the area.

“The United States is a trading nation. One-half of our sea coast faces Asia, the site of our largest markets and some of our closest friends and strongest allies. The continued creation of American jobs is dependent on selling American products overseas. Without doubt, the importance of American interests in Asia will grow, not shrink in the coming years. We may not be "planted" in East Asia (and the Southeast Asia) permanently, but we are bound to the region by permanent interests. And for the last 100 years that has meant maintaining a tangible presence in the region-first by colonies, then by military victory, and today by invitation."

"Given these strategic considerations-time, national goals, and geography-the key question a strategist in this region must address is, Is it possible to accommodate the interests of all the major players in this region-to achieve the ends all wish to achieve-without conflict?" (Balancing Interests in the Strategic Triangle by Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt)

As what General Joe Almonte, former National Security Adviser, expressed succinctly and pointedly. He said: “given the realities in the region today, the US and China must really come to terms, not just with the evolving situation but come to terms with what they feel are their interests and that of the interests of the rest of the world. When China claimed last July that the SCS is their core interest, it means that their claim of sovereignty in the region is not negotiable like their claim of sovereignty in Taiwan and Tibet. Now, if you look at the map, the SCS is really a maritime heartland of the region. Anyone who controls that body of water will control both insular and peninsular South East Asia. And if that happens, whoever controls will have an influence, heavily, in the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific. If we are not careful, we will become a province of China.”

Translation - PNoy and his strategists (if he has any) must act fast but with caution when it comes to handling the issue at hand with China and the US. For a short period of PNoy’s administration, a lot of crucial events happened with our diplomatic relation with Beijing that calls for a lot of transparency in the process. We have gone through a lot of secrecy from the previous administration that we are now feeling its aftershocks. We had enough already and we cannot take another dose of such leadership style.

"At the end of the day, everything comes down to what is best for our country and our people. Absent any action and resolve on our part, other countries might well decide what is best for us." (The South China Sea disputes by Roberto R. Romulo)

PNoy should be wary in dealing with our 'friends and allies' for any mistake might lead to a situation that will take us all in a mutually assured destruction.

God bless the Philippines!

Testing Diplomacy in Contested Waters

2011-04-04T21:16:00.000-07:00

Testing Diplomacy in Contested Waters
By Erick San Juan

It looks like the waters near the contested area in the South China Sea has been (and will be) the site for a couple of naval military exercises.

One of which was the recently concluded MALPHI-LAUT 14-11 that took place from March 16 to 26 in Palawan which is an annual naval military exercises between the Philippines and Malaysia since 1994 through the Defense Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This is a bilateral maritime training exercise that aims to strengthen the relationship and enhance the mutual co-operation between both navies through the development of combined operational doctrines, practices and naval tactics.

Now on its 14th time, our country and Malaysia have been alternately hosting the Malaysian-Philippines Laut (MALPHI-LAUT) naval exercises. This year’s venue (in Palawan) has nothing to do with the March 2 incident at the Reed Bank near the disputed Spratly islands.

According to Navy spokesman Capt. Giovanni Carlo Bacordo, MALPHI-LAUT was planned six months before. “It was way before the Reed Bank incident…it is not being done because of what happened. It’s not. The planning activity between the Royal Malaysian Navy and the Philippine Navy started second semester of 2010 then the final planning conference happened fourth quarter of 2010 and then now the implementation.”

It was good that this clarification was made for there were speculations that this year’s venue of the MALPHI-LAUT naval exercises was a reaction to the March 2 Reed Bank incident.

Actually the said incident even led the Philippine government to lodged a diplomatic protest against China, asking Beijing to explain why Chinese Navy patrol boats harassed a Philippine-sanctioned oil exploration vessel at the Reed Bank area, a disputed area in the South China Sea west of Palawan province.

The second one is the 27th RP-US Balikatan exercises, another bilateral military exercises that will be conducted from April 5 to 15. Again, this year’s Balikatan will be held in part in the Palawan area.

These two naval exercises that happened and will happen near the Spratly, near the contested areas, in the South China Sea, will somehow add to the already existing “tension” in the disputed area. Other evil-minded individuals might find it as a provocation on the part of China, a very “aggressive” claimant who insisted that the area is theirs.

But due to the existing Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) signed by the members of ASEAN and Beijing, the effort is always there to make the South China Sea a place of peace, cooperation and friendship.

The DOC is meant to diminish the threat of war or a military clash in the South China Sea. It has important significance in creating an environment for cooperation, peace, and stability in the region and in promoting trust, confidence building, and mutual understanding between ASEAN and China. That is why Beijing is very firm on its stand on the bilateral settlements of whatever disputes which concern the islands in the South China Sea.

Whatever has transpired in the planning to include Palawan in this year’s Balikatan exercises is not helpful and actually adding some fuel to the fire, so to speak.

Or, this could be a naval exercise that will address any future conflict in the area in support to what has already been reported of the existing US “military base” in Balabac, Palawan. Added to this is the presence of some 600 US troops stationed in Mindanao for several years now from the US Special Forces as reported by Lt. Col. Randolf Cabangbang, spokesman of the Western Mindanao Command.

Now that this information came directly from our spokesman from the Western Mindanao Command, and according to the news report, the US troops are “deployed in the country under the Mutual Defense Treaty between the two countries,” how come they are using the MDT instead of the VFA(Visiting Forces Agreement)? I smell something fishy here.

This administration had to do something about this before it’s too late. If diplomacy fails, and a regional conflict will start because of wrong foreign policy (that was not corrected from the past administration), it will be a Filifinish. God forbid!

And Now the Aftershocks

2011-03-28T22:01:00.001-07:00

And Now the Aftershocks
By Erick San Juan

It was in March 2009 when former President Gloria Arroyo signed the controversial Republic Act No. 9522 (or the Philippine Archipelagic Baselines Law) in compliance with the May 2009 deadline of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) then.

It was a very complicated matter as it is controversial given the fact that our country is one of the claimants on the disputed area on the South China Sea. Therefore drawing the baseline or the territorial extent of the Philippines was not that easy. It was even reported back then that China expressed its opposition to the House Bill defining our boundaries through a note sent to the chairman of the House committee on foreign affairs. Under HB 3216, the Philippines’ archipelagic baseline would include the Kalayaan Island Group and the Scarborough Shoal which are also being claimed by other countries aside from China.

“Rep. Antonio Cuenco (Lakas, Cebu) said Beijing expressed its objection to House Bill 3216 in a “note” to the Philippine embassy in Beijing last December.”

“China is shocked by and gravely concerned with this negative development. We request the clarification from the Philippine side,” said the two-page letter which was faxed to Cuenco’s office by Philippine Ambassador, Sonia Brady.

The unsigned note reiterated that China “has undisputable sovereignty over Nansha islands (Kalayaan Group of Islands) including Scarborough Shoal and its adjacent waters.”

Now we are feeling the aftershock of the past administration’s foreign policy with regard to the extent of our territorial waters.

The recent incident at the Reed Bank, a disputed area west of Palawan province where a reported Chinese Navy patrol boats harassed a Philippine-sanctioned oil exploration vessel has made us wonder – why is China so aggressive in asserting its claim in this part of the South China Sea?

There were other oil explorations in the past we had conducted in the area and we didn’t hear any protests much about interference from China as well as other claimants. And added to this, in 2002, China, the Philippines and the rest of ASEAN members (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) signed an accord for the peaceful resolution of competing territorial claims and to freeze any steps that could spark fighting. Meaning the so called “harassment” was really out of tune.

Then, a couple of days ago China warned against any oil exploration without its consent in waters it claims in the South China Sea after the Philippines announced plans for possible drilling after which the Department of Energy (DOE) and the UK-based Forum Energy had completed a seismic survey for the Reed Bank, near the disputed Spratly Islands.

It was very clear that the Reed bank is about 80 nautical miles from mainland Palawan and within our 200 nautical miles economic zone. It is still a part of our continental shelf and physical territory which is in accordance with the law of the sea. Translation – RP has every right to explore (and if there is oil, to drill) this area without violating any country’s sovereignty.

Although speculations still loom as to what has transpired between the Arroyo government and Beijing before which somehow explains the reaction of China on the Reed Bank survey. The GMA administration signed 67 bilateral agreements with Beijing and to include here was the very controversial Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) conducted by RP, China and was later joined in by Vietnam within the waters off Palawan.

If there is any truth in such speculations that Mrs. Arroyo had a “deal” with Beijing, what is happening now could be the aftershock of this executive agreement. We have to remember that Beijing praised Mrs. Arroyo as “a good leader” and that she has shown "she is in control." based on the leaked documents courtesy of Wikileaks. In control of what? Just asking.

The present administration should address this issue with cooler head as not to give way to some foreign friends’ advise that might spark a gloom scenario in the process. Although PNoy must stand firm and assert the country’s right over its territory no matter what but with a huge dose of diplomacy.

Now that we are in a very tight situation with China when it concerns our fellowmen to be executed on Wednesday, there is no room for more confrontation on the issue of the Reed Bank. We must be vigilant and pray hard that we will resolve this matter peacefully.

Our OFWs’ Dilemma

2011-03-20T23:42:00.001-07:00

Our OFWs’ Dilemma
By Erick San Juan

As the saying goes, when it rains, it pours. The present administration is now being faced with the mass evacuation of our OFWs from countries ravaged with unrest and uncertainties that has put them in grave danger. From man-made disaster to natural calamities, our modern day heroes are faced with uncertainty of coming home safely and losing their jobs in the process. And now, even the country’s economy is at stake here as thousands of our OFWs are coming home, so is the reduction of their remittances that keep our economy afloat.

Who could have thought that countries where thousands of our OFWs are staying will someday reach a point where they would rather leave than face uncertainties of losing their lives. But then again, thoughts of going home and losing a well-paid job abroad is something else that has to be considered seriously.

As the OFWs struggle for their lives (and jobs) in various countries, this administration is still in a slow motion mode. What is fast here is the finger pointing on who should take the responsibilities. While they are still contemplating on what to do, thousands of OFWs stranded in places where danger lurks are in the wait and see mode. Our officials only told them not to leave their houses, and there’s no need for mass evacuation because its only alert level 2. Do we have to wait for the Japanese government’s announcement on the need for evacuation?

Is this the way to treat our OFWs in a life and death situation? When all the other governments of various nationalities have started evacuating their citizens? Or is it because there is no fund to move them out from places where there is a possible danger? If this is so, why is PNoy very quick and even bragged that PH is one of the first to give donations to Japan?

We are not against in giving donations to our neighbor country, but the point here is that if the government has the money (14 million dollars) to donate, where is the money or funds to help our kababayans in distress? Methinks now is the right time for the president to order an independent audit of all government funds. Mafioso's from within it's agencies must be unmasked.

Now that the issue of funds was brought out, a lot of OFWs in different countries are now asking if the OWWA (Overseas Workers Welfare Administration) fund is still intact. Because this is the time wherein such fund should be utilized for the OFW’s welfare. And we are talking here of several billions of pesos fund just for the use of the OFWs in times like this.

Recently, OWWA officials reported that the fund is still intact and can be tap anytime they need it, why only now? Where is it when our "Bagong Bayani" (modern day heroes) needed it? Are they being taken for a ride here with their own money?

The clamor to audit the OWWA funds is growing so is the discontent of the poor overseas workers. The OFWs are waiting for some real action and not just rhetoric from the palace to address their grievances. The people in PNoy’s loop must take action immediately. What is happening now could just be the start of more problems to come concerning our workers abroad.

The brewing unrest in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is now being contained by their government, so with the other countries in the Middle East. But the nagging question is – for how long? I believe that these events will reach a boiling point, yet, it can be delayed. That is why our government should act fast and plan well on what to do. Remember that there are over a million OFWs in the KSA alone. As an observer of events unfolding, PNoy should be prepared for the worst case scenario concerning the exodus of thousands of our OFWs.

There is no room for blame game and wait and see mode. Act fast and act with conviction to help our fellow Filipinos working abroad.

God bless our Bagong Bayani!

US Losing the War?

2011-03-14T20:47:00.001-07:00

US Losing the War?
By Erick San A. San Juan

The world has entered a new kind of war, a new phase that is far reaching even in the remote areas of the globe. The internet age has set the new arena for a global war,the global information war. And guess what, who admitted that they are losing this new war in the cyber space? Uncle Sam through his Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Sec. Clinton in her presentation before the US Congress, (can be seen on youtube.com of Russia Today) defending the 47 billion dollars budget for the State Department, declared that the US is losing in the global information war. She cited that CNN and BBC are cutting back while the television network of Russia, China, Iran and South America led by Venezuela, are the ones winning the info war. Based on the report of Russia Today, RT is getting almost 300 million views on you tube compared to CNN with only 3 million views.

This only shows that there is a clamor for more alternative media that will give fresh viewpoints on major issues and not be dependent on the American mainstream media. Given the fact that the US international broadcast department is getting a budget that is far bigger than RT, Iran’s press TV and Telesur combined, they are still losing the info war. What went wrong? Is the world fed up with the globalists constant feeding of lies and obvious bias towards deception?

Right after the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center tragedy, the US mainstream and all those who parroted its line, conveniently dragged the whole world into believing that the culprit was Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda group. They supported the railroaded 9/11 Commission investigation report in the process.

This big lie prompted the alternative media through the internet, to search for the truth and thus created lot of blogs, websites and videos exposing the deception. To date, there are around 156 million websites (including blog sites) in the internet.

The surge in the number of websites is already a proof that the information war has started in full scale. Even the social network sites are being used as showground for some advocacy groups endorsing different point of views about the latest issues around the world.

This is the beauty of the internet, as I always say, we can exchange information around the globe in seconds. Even our radio broadcast can now be heard worldwide through live streaming (http://dwss-am.mellow947.fm/ daily from 4:30 to 5 p.m.) and also our blog (www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) where we post our articles and several video/audio archives of our past radio programs.

Here at home, we cannot ignore the growing need for information coming from different point of views and reputable sources. That is why there are groups advocating the need for freedom of information where people can have access to important data that can affect the lives of every Filipino.

Soon there's a possibility of a law that will censor the internet and punish people using the cyber space as propaganda tool in their advocacy. If we are a truly a democratic country, we will allow such freedom and be thankful enough that there are people like us giving out information that are nowhere to be found on mainstream media and the likes.

We have to admit the shift to a multipolar kind of interaction among peoples of the world in order to neutralize some networks in carrying out their daily spins of deception.

Like what has been already said, “money alone will not provide worldwide media clout”.

This could be a reminder to government's, that no matter how expensive the PR agency that you will hire to polish an adminisltration’s image, the bottom line is still how you perform in your daily duties and obligations to the people. Those who understands the situation are tired of being taken for a ride every time. Now with the help of the internet, a growing number of patriotic and vigilant individuals can make that big difference.

We should learn how to read between the lines......

Sans South, Sans Sovereignty

2011-03-06T22:07:00.001-08:00

Sans South, Sans Sovereignty
By Erick San Juan

The truth behind the saga on the anomalies in the Armed Forces of the Philippines seems to be nowhere in sight as some of the people allegedly involved are being attacked by hypertension and selective amnesia. As we all wait and see as to what could be the end to this storytelling-a-lie, the nine-month old administration of PNoy should be on the look out on what is developing in the south.

This writer never stopped reminding our people especially our government (through writing: www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com and our daily radio show at DWSS 1494khz AM @ 4:30pm) that MinTSuPala – Mindanao, Tawi-Tawi, Sulu and Palawan, is where our riches are and should be protected from foreign interventions. If there's foreign interests, we should get what's due us.

The country’s past administrations’ mistakes in letting our military to be dependent on US support should be corrected as soon as possible. Or else, it would be too late for we will all be drawn into a war and possibly be a battleground for a regional conflict. And, all our resources will disappear in the process.

Let me cite some crucial events here: The global war on terror myth was launched through the 'Operation Enduring Freedom', the name applied to the Central Asian campaign in which the Joint Special Operations Task Force (JSOTF-P) was created here in the Philippines. The task force — without engaging in direct combat — has "advised and assisted" the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

This so called task force has been in our territory through a virtual military base stationed in Camp Navarro since 2002. Over the years, the JSOTF-P has conducted activities here in the guise as humanitarian purposes. That’s what they kept on saying since then.

Based on the research of Focus on the Global South in 2007 titled, "Unconventional Warfare: Are US Special Forces Engaged in an `Offensive' War in the Philippines?"
(http://www.focusweb.org/index.php/).

It said, it had "gathered pronouncements by US troops themselves who have gone on record to say that their mission in (Mindanao) is `unconventional warfare' – a US military term that encompasses combat operations."

"With the Philippine government not giving a definite exit date, and with US officials stating that this unit – composed of between 100 to 500 troops depending on the season – will stay on as long as they are allowed by the government, it is presumed that it will continue to be based in the Philippines for an indefinite period," the statement read.

"Beyond being involved in the war, Focus draws attention to this unit having effectively established a new kind of basing in the Philippines," it said.

Since the previous administration did allow the stay of this special task force, it went further with its additional task of helping the Coast Watch South. The Coast Watch South project’s aim is “To provide centralized maritime surveillance and response in the waters of the Southern Philippines in order to facilitate the movement of desirable people and goods and prevent the entry and exit of dangerous goods and other lawless elements.”

According to reports, Coast Watch South entails sustained maritime surveillance and maritime patrols involving ships and planes on known routes being used by terrorist groups in going in and out of the country.

Areas covered by the Coast Watch South are the long shorelines and vast sea-lanes of Davao, Sarangani, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.

This effort is presently being undertaken under the Fleet-Marine concept with direct participation of the Philippine Navy and the Philippine Marines as well as the Philippine Air Force (PAF).

Also (like the VFA) with the US Pacific Command, this US funded project plus the assistance from the Australian government, will guard the southern backdoor used by alleged international terrorist groups. Specifically, they are going to assist us in putting up radar stations in the Sulu, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi archipelago and the eastern part of Mindanao.

What was omitted here are Palawan and the Balabac island which are both strategically located. Balabac island is in the same geographic region in the Sulu Seas and that the island is astride the Palawan Passage to the South China Sea where China has various listening posts in the Spratly islands chain and the Paracel islands.

That is why the military operations in Balabac are meant to be a prelude to the ramping of a jointly-run military installation or listening post with the US in the Sulu Sea and guarding the gateway to the South China Sea in the Palawan Passage. (from luwaran.net)

The efforts taken by the Arroyo government that implemented Coast Watch South with full support of the Pentagon, with Australian and British government on the side, the vast wealth in MinTSuPala is very much secured…. by our “foreign friends”. This is the real reason behind this US-funded program.

Coast Watch South is reportedly guarding our wealth and rest assured that they are doing their best.

C’mon, wake up Pinoy! And PNoy(President Noy)! Are we going to allow another chubibo(circus)? We never learned from our VFA experience. Remember, without the MinTSuPala, there is no sovereignty for the rest of the archipelago. Beware: Balkanization is still on.

Healing the Nation, Lets Get Our Act Together!

2011-03-02T01:04:00.000-08:00

Healing the Nation, Lets Get Our Act Together!
By Erick San Juan

The hope of many Filipinos that the EDSA 1 People Power anniversary celebration by the present administration could be an opportunity but has turned out to be a dividing force again. Instead of setting an example of how a true leader and a statesman should act, the two juniors of the past presidents failed at that and engaged in a word war instead.

Our country just can’t afford to be caught up in the middle of this petty and childish show of disunity in the midst of so many problems here and abroad. Because of the blunders recently committed by several people in the government, so many of our overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) had suffered the consequences..

We can’t blame our modern day heroes for the obvious reason that it is becoming a trend. For the past decades, the government is no longer functioning as it should be, it can neither give decent jobs to our citizens. Our OFWs are always at the losing end especially when diplomatic ties between the Philippines and other countries are in jeopardy.

If not for this reason, like what is happening now in the Middle Eastern countries and in North Africa, a lot of our OFWs are caught in the middle of violent unrest. These events should serve as a wake up call to our government officials who seem caught sleeping in their posts. OFWs are complaining for delayed help and assistance in saving them from
possible danger and threat. There seems to be no contingency plan at all. If there is any, how come that there were so many complaints from the families of the OFWs? What's happening now is your word against mine. But who will the people believe?

PNoy’s administration is being put to test again here. The perception is, this government is in the "service" for eight months now biut it still groping for ways to solve such
problems? We are talking of so many lives here in danger. These are the people working hard abroad to earn money to keep our economy afloat. And yet, they are the ones being neglected when they need the government’s assistance. What happened to the OWWA funds?

Instead of engaging in rhetoric and too many praise releases, our country’s leaders should unite the Filipinos and act as one to help in facing the difficulties ahead. We are living in these very exciting times. It is no joke at all as of how events are unfolding right before our eyes.

For whoever is orchestrating these scenarios, the whole world is being drag to regional and global conflicts not of our liking. They already started in the oil-rich regions through regime change. But we haven’t seen nothing yet. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Whether we like it or not, we have to get our acts together and brace ourselves for a possible confluence of events.

As of this writing, China is still trying to contain the growing clamor towards unrest in what they call "Jasmine Revolution",an oplan or name borrowed from the Tunisian revolt that set off the Middle East turmoil.. Activists, possibly from outside China, have called on the citizenry in China to express their displeasure at the country’s lack of reforms and officials’ corruption. The scenario being instigated was to silently meet in front of department stores or other public areas to make a build up of critical mass for a national resistance that can bring change.

God forbid, if the globalists are orchestrating the same method of destabilization here in our region, Philippines will be caught unprepared. That is why we are asking every Filipino to commit in helping unite this country. Enough of those political bickerings and focus on nonsense issues. We have to move towards a common goal of saving this nation to survive this impending crisis. We have to heal old wounds and move forward to unification. Unless we do these things fast, we will all end up disunited and
face a mutually assured destruction.

We will not stop with our advocacy to unite for the common good as what we always say in our daily radio show (now in our new home DWSS 1494khz AM band @ http://dwss-am.mellow947.fm 4:30 pm).

We must all be vigilant and pray harder that we can overcome
all these. God save our country!

When Public Accountability Matters

2011-02-24T21:27:00.001-08:00

When Public Accountability Matters
By Erick San Juan

When there’s smoke, there’s fire, so goes the saying. I am referring here of the issue raised by Senator Miriam Santiago that “China may ask a number of things, which include an agreement on their stand on the Spratly Islands, the termination of the US-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement, or a joint program between the Chinese and the Philippine armed forces.” She added that international relations do not just involve wooing another country.

This matter should be taken into consideration in the light of how geostrategy works in dealing with controversial issues like the contested areas in the South China Sea.

But sad to say, another blunder has led to this comment regarding Spratley Islands. To quote : But what if China does not grant the request? Anxious to please the President, DFA sources said Philippine Ambassador to China, Francisco Benedicto indicated in a meeting with Chinese officials that the Philippines is willing to drop the Spratleys in exchange for the freedom of the Filipino drug mules.

A source said it was disaster. Benedicto has been recalled. Malacanang is on the lookout for a new ambassador to China. (Source : http://www.ellentordesillas.com/ )

Truly a disaster. How could anyone give such a tactless comment to such crucial issue? This blunder from a government official, if the said account is true, is a big no no in diplomatic relations especially matters concerning national interest and security for that matter.

This administration has been committing several mistakes lately and the rest of the nation can’t help but to speculate that indeed there’s no one minding the store. And we can’t blame the citizenry for the eventualities. These blunders can drag the whole nation into a mutually assured destruction in the process.

Another point raised by Anti-crime advocate Teresita Ang-See is that the country should have tolerated the execution of 3 Filipinos on death row, out of respect to the laws of China. Because the drug mules (and their families at that) knew that they were dealing with drug syndicates. Ms. Ang-See served as an interpreter for the Chinese authorities
who investigated the cases.

In these cases, our government should act fast and execute the people here who helped them leave the airport. As what Ms. Ang-See reported, that all 3 admitted during the case proceedings that they did not pass through the x-ray machines at the airport.

The above mentioned situations clearly indicate the need for public official’s accountability, from the highest to the lowest positions in government. Unless this administration do something about this, future mistakes might be too great that we will all be sorry soon.

Now that everything has been said and done, PNoy and all the Filipinos here and abroad, are held hostage (as how Ang-See put it) by the mistakes of the few irresponsible people.

Wake up, PNoy! Some people around you should not deceive the country by praise releases, that we are doing well in our diplomatic relations. We are not! The glaring truth is all over the media, here and abroad. The perceived solutions are pure rhetoric and its creating more problems.

Our diplomatic relations with Bejing and Washington must be handled by qualified diplomats and who understand very well the undercurrents that goes with it. There is no room for mistakes here, we had too much already.

This is not like a walk in the park, remember Mr. President, “kapag nalubak ka, buong bansa damay!”

What is Behind the New Peace Talks?

2011-02-21T00:37:00.001-08:00

What is Behind the New Peace Talks?
By Erick San Juan

The first formal peace negotiation between the Government of
the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) under the
present administration was held last February 9 – 10 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
It is the 20th formal exploratory talks and the first informal talks
was held last January 13, 2011.

The planned exploratory talks pushed through amidst the MILF
infighting and possibly another breakaway group in the offing through the leadership
of Ameril Umbra Kato. It was earlier cited that Kato is out to form a separate
military which he called Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF).

The alleged formation of a new armed group by Umbra Kato to
continue the struggle for an independent Islamic state in Mindanao
is somehow designed to disrupt the ongoing formal talks. Such infighting among
the MILF commanders should be taken seriously if the purpose of the government
is to resolve the age-old insurgency in the south.

Any development that the government will implement in Mindanao
would be in vain if groups like that of Kato’s will prevail. Remember that in
2008 Kato is one of the two MILF senior commanders who launched deadly attacks
across mostly Christian communities in Mindanao. The
said attacks happened after the Supreme Court released its decision that the
MOA-AD Bangsamoro Juridical Entity was unconstitutional. The attacks left
nearly 400 dead and hundreds of thousands displaced, and a possibility of a
repeat of such incident is not far-fetched.

We could sense some underlying agenda here when the MILF
announced that they cut down the number of villages it wants to be included in
its proposed autonomous Bangsamoro territory in Mindanao
to 7 to 9 percent of its original
historical claim. Then the government through GRP chief negotiator Marvic Leonen somehow in defense
of the said proposal, said that “it does not seek independence or secession
from the Republic of the Philippines”
after he got back from Kuala Lumpur.

It could be perceived as pure rhetorics again in order to
justify another possible MOA-AD BJE in the offing. The rest of us should be
wary as to what is not being talked about here in the open and I smell
something fishy here.

As of this writing, there are clamors from different NGOs
and the Palace, to postpone the August 2011 election in the Autonomous Region
in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and pushing to
synchronize it with the national and local elections in 2013.

Under the bill drafted by Malacañang, the next regular
elections for the regional governor, vice governor, members of the regional
legislative assembly of the ARMM shall be held on the second Monday of May
2013. They will have a three- year term.

It also stated that the incumbent elective officials of the
ARMM shall hold office only until Sep. 30, 2011 when the President appoints officers-in-charge, who will
be in post until the next officials are elected.

Is this move to postpone the ARMM election has something to
do with the MILF’s agenda in the peace talks? There is still so much time given
here until 2013 and ample time to carry out whatever plans they have in mind. The
fear of some Filipinos of a possible balkanization of Mindanao
is not farfetched. Speculations are free as long as there is no transparency.

PNoy’s administration should live up to its promise of
transparency and most of all accountability. These are badly needed when the
sovereignty as one nation united is being threatened again by greedy
individuals.

Be strong and steadfast, Mr. President or this country will end
up disunited and only a few will benefit in the process.

Blunder Strikes Again

2011-02-16T22:34:00.000-08:00

Blunder Strikes Again by Erick San Juan

The administration of President Benigno Aquino III is being put to test again when it comes to foreign policy and diplomacy, and so is the rest of the nation. The Filipino people are again divided on their views of the recent event, the deportation of the 14 Taiwanese nationals suspected of fraud to China for crimes against Chinese nationals.

As what most ordinary Filipinos said through the internet, this could be strike three for PNoy’s administration. First, the Manila bus hostage crisis followed by the controversial boycott by our country of the Nobel peace prize awarding. The said events call for the expertise of professionals in the field of foreign policy.

I recall the fear of some critics at the start of PNoy’s governance, that the people around him (including PNoy himself) are not capable of handling situations like this and might end up creating more problems in the process.

The modern global diplomacy coupled with the fast high technology means of communication had to be dealt with caution amongst leaders of the world. Diplomats and government functionaries should see the connection between the weight of public opinion and effective international policy-making. In the situations I mentioned, public opinion was too loud to be discredited, like what happened with Hongkongers and now with the Taiwanese people. The Aquino government should stop releasing statements that might put the country in jeopardy, especially those coming from his cabinet officials.

The undercurrents in this recent episode in Philippines foreign policy is too deep that this administration’s move had to be taken with great caution. Although we uphold the reason of the government that we have to protect our national interests, still there are a lot of factors to be considered especially our overseas Filipino workers (OFW) working there.

As of this writing, an emissary will be sent to Taiwan (with unofficial capacity) and this move will somehow settle the doubts clouding the issue at hand and will explain further the said deportation to China by our government.

And for the part of Taiwan, its government has called for the immediate forging of a mutual legal assistance agreement with the Philippines to shield its nationals against unlawful arrests and deportations to third countries.

In a statement sent to the Daily Tribune by the Taiwan Economic and Cultural Office (Teco), Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Manila explained that such legal bilateral mechanism would allow the Philippines and Taiwan to assist each other in the investigative, prosecutorial and judicial processes related to criminal matters involving their respective nationals.

“To prevent such undesirable consequences from happening again in the future, an agreement on mutual judicial assistance between Taiwan and the Philippines should be concluded as soon as possible,” the Teco statement said. (Daily Tribune 2/14/2011)

These move signifies that governments can always find ways to solve such problems. Compromises between power centers could remain a matter of calculating interests in the hope of avoiding conflicts and for maintaining peace in this region.

For the sake of this country’s survival through the remittances of our OFWs, the government should do its homework so as not to repeat the same mistake.

There are now several flashpoints in the region like the ongoing clash between the Thai and the Cambodian troops but ours could worsen if our government will not be wary. There's a false flag operation which could lead to attacks especially in Mindanao where our GRP panel insists in dealing with the MILF whose leadership is questioned by the faction of Ameril Umbra Kato. Kumander Kato created his own militia named BIFF-Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, after the the failure of the MOA-AD (memorandum of agreement on ancestral domain).

The arrival of the USS Blue Ridge, the mother ship of the 7th Fleet, make some of our politicians jitter and become suspicious. Pundits believe that aircraft carriers will not deployed unnecessarily if there's no turbulence in the region. When the late president, Ferdinand Marcos was ousted, the 7th Fleet was nearby. Before the ouster of Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, there was a concentration of naval capacity in the middle east region, all in the immediate proximity to Egypt and the middle east theater especially the Red Sea (www.zerohedge.com).

The ongoing investigation of corrupt practices in the government and the military could also trigger chaos especially if the corruptors and their hired PR people will be successful in stopping the investigations in respect "kuno" of Gen. Angelo Reyes "sacrifice" by killing himself.

Let's be watchful and vigilant for a possible confluence of events.

State-Sponsored Terrorists Created Corruption

2011-02-07T21:36:00.001-08:00

State-Sponsored Terrorists Created Corruption
By Erick A. San Juan

It was seven years and six months when the Magdalo group occupied Oakwood and aired their grievances against the corruption in the military and in the government. With the events unfolding, one can still hear the words of the Magdalo saying :

“A number of soldiers have died, and even more are going to die in a war that they do not plan to end. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been caught helpless in the crossfire. They do not want the war to end so that it will continue to be a milking cow of greedy and treacherous officials in the AFP and in the government.”

“We have experienced the true situation of our soldiers. We have shared hardships and sacrifices in the face of an armed conflict, but the support we need against the jaws of death have been pocketed by a few leaders looking out only for their selfish interests.”

One year after the Magdalo officers said this, Gen. Carlos Garcia, the AFP comptroller, and other high-ranking officers were found to have diverted to their personal funds money that should have replaced the worn-out boots of soldiers.

It is indeed a vindication for these soldiers who fought long and hard in the field of corruption against an administration then, tainted with so many controversial scandals.

What this present administration must be wary of is this - They do not want the war to end so that it will continue to be a milking cow of greedy and treacherous officials in the AFP and in the government.” If this is the case, it is but logical to ask, who started such war? If it is for the alleged benefit of some few corrupt officials, every administration in the past has tolerated such wrongdoing. Added to that, is the presence of the US troops ever since, may it be against the secessionist, terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, etc. that made the matter worst!

Those who uphold the presence of the US troops in the south via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) should stop parroting the line that they are helping in the fight against the lawless elements through training and military modernization through “grants” or whatever they want to call it. In effect, with the opening of the Pandora’s box, releasing the hidden hundreds of millions of pesos being pocketed by some corrupt military and government officials, it is now time to seriously consider the fate of this “agreement”.

Uncle Sam’s global war on terror justifies every reason that there is really a threat from the terrorists in our territory and actually benefiting the need for more funds to implement the so called war in the process. Just like in the global context, the superpower wanted this outside enemy in order to justify its preemptive war against sovereign nations. Who wants to kill the goose that lays the golden egg anyway?

This writer will not get tired of reminding people especially those in the Palace that the alleged benefits that we are getting from the VFA are just full of BS and now it’s becoming a war for the convenience and enrichment of the few while the poor soldiers on the ground are the ones suffering. Is it that hard to comprehend? The mortal sins of these few grafters were pocketing the money of the United Nations and the Abu Sayyaf's. This is a no-no to the globalists.

If this administration is sincere for the reason they were put into power, now is the time to make a firm stand or all of us will suffer soon.

The deaths of our best soldiers and a lot of civilians for several years now are enough reasons to put an end to this endless clash that had put a lot of cash into the pockets of the greedy.

I have to remind our leaders on how the globalists operate. They will tolerate greed and corruption but when the day of reckoning comes, they will dump these leaders, dictators or officials like a hot potato like what they did to Marcos,etc. The current ousted leaders in the middle east like Ben Ali of Tunisia and soon Egypt President Hosni Mubarak, an ever loyal ally of the Americans are good example of these crisis by design. Let's watch how the cookie crumbles in North Africa and the Middle East.

Stronger Tremors in the Offing!

2011-01-31T05:34:00.000-08:00

Stronger Tremors in the Offing!
By Erick A. San Juan
On a daily basis, our country is experiencing earthquakes of varied intensities but most of them are quite weak to be noticed and only the machine at PHILVOCS could detect such earth’s underground movements.
What is being felt right now is the political tremor that is rocking this present administration. Barely seven months in office, PNoy is being bombarded with various problems that are mostly created by the people he appointed to help him run this country. But, with such number of so-called able men and women in his loop, and yet, as if nobody is minding the store.
Until that fateful day which coincided with former President Cory Cojuangco-Aquino’s birthday, the bombing of a passenger bus along Edsa in Makati City, that killed five and wounded thirteen passengers. Speculations from different sectors emerged, from destabilization to terrorism to diversionary tactics, in lieu of some controversial cases being investigated. But what emanate from the president himself, the said bombing was an act of terrorism, in effect putting aside the other possibilities. If this is so, why timed it on the birthday of the former president, the mother of the sitting president? Well, your guess is good as mine.
Unfortunately, this terrorist act that happened in the heart of the business district has made our country back on the travel advisory of some nations headed by the British government. We can’t blame them for releasing the travel alert for their citizens because this administration has just experienced a lapse in governance and accountability that had dragged us all in this unfortunate situation. But the timing of the release of several international index reports that the Philippines is now a rogue state is suspect. Is this part of "laying the predicate" of things to come?'
PNoy and those inside his loop should get their acts together in finding solutions to address the country’s problems, from simple to complex. Why are you in power for when you can’t deliver the promises you made? The nation is still in the wait, wait, wait (until when) and see mode.
This is just a mild tremor compared to the one coming soon – the forthcoming visit of PNoy to China. If our president will not play his cards well in relation to Beijing vis-à-vis Washington, the tremor we are experiencing now will turn into a disastrous “earthquake” of great magnitude. PNoy should learn from the country’s past presidents who “disobey” the perceived master. They ended up in a very devastating exit. Uncle Sam is a very jealous master, and so the history says…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        PNoy has to take its cue to whatever happened in the recently concluded “summit” of G20 i.e. the meeting between US president Barack Obama and PROC president Hu Jintao who many pundits believe was simple diplomacy at the least, hyperbole 101. All rhetorics with no concrete achievements to vouch for. It all boils down to how these two giants will play the game of geopolitics.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           As for Uncle Sam, it is still the favorite – the myth of "al Qaeda", as what Obama mentioned in his State of the Union Address: “al Qaeda" and their affiliates continue to plan attacks against us” and that, “We have also taken the fight against the "al Qaeda" and their allies abroad.”
Clearly stated, the global war on terror (GWOT) is still on and so is the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) here. Why? This country needs the protection of the big brother (and so they say), that is why the presence of the US troops in the south and the VFA is the most credible excuse (for them) to stay within our territory. And in the process, the south became the haven of state sponsored terrorists and even its training ground. Remember Col. Robert Lansdale operation in the past? How we were terrorized by man-made vampires and "aswangs", so that their satellite bases where they train their soldiers in preparation for the invasion of Vietnam will not be noticed by the public scrutiny?                                                      The US-RP Bilateral Strategic meeting was just concluded last week at Sofitel. Despite that the VFA was not discussed yet according to newspaper reports, Kurt Campbell,US assistant secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs of the State Department said,"VFA is still vital to US-RP relations." (Mla.Times Jan.31,2011). Reportedly, in the next meeting, VFA will be the main agenda. This is the reason why I am like a broken record always repeating and reminding our government and our leaders to wake up. We have to protect our interests and our people as to the danger of a possible nuclear theater of war. All the ingredients of this man-made calamity is already in placed. That is the paradox of all times! Need I say more?

It’s Propriety, Indeed!

2011-01-24T20:43:00.001-08:00

It’s Propriety, Indeed!
By Erick San Juan

"This is the beauty of the internet.", as I always say. Because even when I was out of the country for five days, I just turned my computer on and surf the internet and there I can find all the latest news here and around the world. In seconds, I can chat with my friends worldwide.

While reading some of the most important news, I was overwhelmed with so many relevant issues besetting this nation, particularly the present administration. And then I tell to myself sadly – as if nobody is minding the store. From the most pressing issues to something trivial, the government should address them immediately but with caution. Like the allegedly carnap/slay problem of our national police, I’ve been hearing a lot of negative feedback even though the case was reportedly “virtually solved”.

This is just the tip of the iceberg of the so many crimes confronting our law enforcers. Methinks, It’s as simple as going back to basic, come up with a credible and realistic policy and implement it to address the relentless street crimes. But who will police the police? Here we need a stronger policy against scalawags in uniform who protect crime lords and those parroting the terrorism myth. This way, we can all sleep soundly knowing that the police are there to serve and protect the citizenry.

And for those who are crying for justice from all sectors of the society, pundits believe that the return of the death penalty is not the answer. Especially if our police can address immediately or be responsive in crime solving. We had the death penalty before and it did not serve its purpose of reducing the daily crime rate.

In the economic and political front, the move towards a constitutional change is in the offing. Most of our legislators are actually eyeing the amendment on the economic provisions. A very vital provision that will affect us now and the generations to come. The present Congress should be very careful as to what kind of economic change they want and what the country needs so as to keep up with the global economic trend. It's quite easy to alter some provisions in our constitution but it always boils down to who will benefit – this country or the big foreign corporats (a.k.a. oligarchs)?

Our former Chief Justice Reynato Puno, in his conferment speech at the UP law recently said that this is the right time to implement such amendments. After all, there are so many problems confronting the already existing laws that need to be amended to correct the flaws in it. We have to address first the problems affecting the stomach of every Filipino.

The VFA (visiting forces agreement) issue should be tackled immediately. We are always with the American side but when can we get what's due us? Why do we have to be contented with second and most of the times, third hand war materials? Are we that dumb and inferior to be short changed just like that? These are just some of the things that needs attention and not those issues that are only beneficial for the grandstanding of some public officials, both elected and appointed.

Lastly, as for our President’s choice of an automobile, just a brotherly unsolicited advice coming from a lover of nice cars too. Its really out of tune this Porsche sports car purchase that you made. The perception is that you are not different from the previous administration who dined and wined lavishly courtesy of a “political friend”. We are talking here of propriety, Mr. President, especially those around you who forgot to give you a sound advice that could affect your credibility, the citizen's trust and confidence. If you want people to be united in support of your administration’s undertakings, be sensitive enough to feel their needs – not just superficially but most of all what affects their values in life.

We will pray for you and for this nation’s survival in this very interesting times.

Terror Threat in RP, What Else is New?

2011-01-18T02:05:00.000-08:00

Terror Threat in RP, What Else is New?
By Erick San Juan

From Wikileaks to Maplecroft to FTI-International Risk to travel (terror) alert
advisory from different countries, the list seems to be growing as the perceived
secessionists and bandits in the south persisted in the midst of the US troops
in their “virtual military bases” there. Thanks to the Visiting Forces
Agreement!

So, what else is new? As if the lives of our fellowmen in the south has gone any
better with the presence of the American troops when we speak of peace and
order.

Why do we still have the secessionists and bandits? And why the persistent
“brand” of the south as the training ground for the world’s mythically famous
al-Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah?

Added to this are the people within the supposed loop of responsible agents who
take care of our national security, who are the ones creating fear among our
citizenry, by adding fuel to the fire on the terrorism myth and placing the
perceived threat in the limelight. So we hear such reactions from our neighbors
and supposed “allies” in the process.

We are glad that the palace through Presidential Spokesman Edwin Lacierda,
corrected the FTI-International Risk (a security consultancy) report that the
Philippines is lagging behind its neighbors, such as Thailand and Indonesia, in
containing the terror threats.

"We disagree that we have overtaken Indonesia or Southern Thailand. Remember
that our pool of recruits is a lot smaller than that of Indonesia," he said,
adding that the government "monitors all threats, whether in the south or in the
city. But again, it is not as grave as it has been assessed."

The Philippine government is waging war against different armed groups such as
the Abu Sayyaf, the left-wing New People's Army and the secessionist Moro
Islamic Liberation Front.

But the government should not be contented in just releasing press (praise)
statements, they should be coupled with action – that is what this country
needs. Enough with rhetorics and deceits. Lets call spade a spade. Once and for
all, PNoy’s administration should decide on the fate of the Visiting Forces
Agreement (VFA). Why? because it’s the paradox of so many years past since the
Americans set foot on our soil. They are here and so is the threat of terrorism.
That is a big B.S. !

As an observer and analyst of events unfolding in our country, the terror threat
is just the tip of the iceberg, what I fear most (and a number of Filipinos who
understand the real situation) is the balkanization of Mindanao and eventually
the "salami"-zation of the Philippines. Meaning, gradually subdividing our
nation state into different protectorate units like what happened in
Yugoslavia. If this terror myth will persist and so is the presence of Uncle
Sam’s troops in the south, we are really heading for a big trouble and the
mutually assured destruction (MAD) of the republic is not far behind.

Every Filipino should be vigilant and specially cautious for the possible
confluence of events in this land. We must remind this administration that if
the president is really for the common good, now is the time to decide – are we
really getting what is due us from this so called “treaty”?

God help us especially the present leadership of PNoy!

Crisis by design!

2011-01-09T07:19:00.001-08:00

Crisis by design!
By Erick San Juan

The world was (and still is) in the grip of suspense and anxiety as the tensest flashpoint – the Korean Peninsula could start another sequel to what they experienced some fifty years ago. A Korean War part 2 is not far-fetched if the manipulators of events will push through with their agenda and drag the whole region (and the world) to a war.

What has transpired since the Cheonan incident, and recently the shelling of a South Korean island, had worsen the relations between the two Koreas. Translation – could be a proxy war in the offing by the two giants i.e. U.S. and China. Why? Because some analysts treated the incidents as just plain incidents, for there were no “true investigations” that are acceptable to all the concerned parties. Until, of course, when Washington came to the rescue on the side of South Korea that actually exacerbated the situation in the process. Let us not forget China who is always on the side of its ally, North Korea.

From the point of F. William Engdahl in his article The Korean Crisis: Cui Bono? : In 1999 this writer spoke with a former US Ambassador to Beijing, a career CIA officer and close friend of the Bush family. The former diplomat stated, in an incautious moment, “If North Korea did not exist, we would have to create it. They allow us to keep our fleet in the Japanese waters despite the end of the Cold War.” Perhaps the sudden heating up of Korea tensions is also related to a longer-term Pentagon agenda for the region. If we ask Cui Bono, the clear reply is "Washington".

Meaning, Washington’s geopolitical ambitions have critical impact on the failure to resume the six-party talks (the talks include North and South Korea, the US, Japan, China and Russia) because the international recognition of the North Korean regime and the normalization of the situation on the Korean peninsula may question the need for U.S. military presence in the Northeast Asia and the disposition of the system of theater missile defense.

Simultaneously, Beijing considers North Korea as a strategic bridgehead for its long-term goal to spread China’s political, financial and economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Actually, China is using its favorite tactic of trade and investment cooperation, supplemented by abstracts of ethnic, cultural affinity and common values to reach its purpose.

With the above-mentioned intentions of the two giants, the real crisis building up between the two Koreas are designed to sustain a scenario, which means – a great deal of saber rattling, especially the show of military might by Washington near the contested waters. So far, hostilities is still far for reaching that boiling point. Same with North Korea, by using said tactic, it will force talks where the West will agree to a substantial aid package in return for a guarantee that Pyongyang will not produce further nuclear weapons. Both sides want wealth, not world war three.
As what has pointed out by Nuclear deterrence guru, Glenn Snyder described the phenomenon, of which there are several examples, as the "stability-instability paradox".

Beijing military hawks fought Russia over the Zhebao island on the Ussuri river in 1969 to strengthen their political position without actually risking a large-scale war that would have destroyed them. Pakistan fought a limited war with India over Kashmir in 1999, a year after both countries tested their nuclear weapons.

The real fear now is that protracted North Korean aggression will push South Korea and Japan to reconsider their long-held taboo on possessing nuclear weapons.

North Korea has stolen the spotlight if not the thunder from United States nuclear envoy. US Ambassador Stephen Bosworth made a quick trip to the Northeast Asian capitals this week with an adroitly timed call for resuming six-party talks on its nukes with "no preconditions". The North Korean proposal could hardly have been better timed considering that it came right after Bosworth in Seoul got through saying there was no point "in talks for the sake of talks". Then Bosworth was off to Beijing, where he propounded the same message along with the usual plea for China to please reign in its North Korean protectorate. (“North Korea goes gunning for aid” by Donald Kirk)

In order to reach a stability in the region, all interested parties should promote the concept of establishing a multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia as a basis for the regime to maintain peace and to exclude from consideration the proposal of the White House to establish a certain coordination mechanism to be led by them.

Together with the rest of the peace-loving countries, we adhere to the peaceful means of resolving this crisis, may it be designed by some globalist elite.

Who wants a world war anyway?

Visiting Forces, Not Anymore!

2011-01-02T22:07:00.001-08:00

Visiting Forces, Not Anymore!

By Erick San Juan

Come February this new year 2011 will mark the 13th year since the signing of the Visiting Forces Agreement by the representatives of Washington and Manila as an Executive Agreement. After more than a year, in May 1999, the Philippine Senate passed the VFA as a treaty (even though the US Congress never recognized this as a treaty).

Looking back to more than a decade of this “treaty”, and now we are entering a new decade in the midst of the so-called review, our military is still one of the weakest militaries in this part of the world. What has transpired in the past twelve years or so clearly showed nothing significantly beneficial to us, especially to our armed forces. And worst, a lot of negative feedback were written and reported by our fellowmen as well as foreign writers.

A certain report that came out in the local papers just recently (and posted online) was from the National Union of Journalists in the Philippines (NUJP) wherein a Zamboanga City-based journalist experienced the arrogance from the “visiting American troops”.

As what reported by the NUJP director Julie Alipala, who is based in Zamboanga, quoted a local television reporter as saying that one of the six American soldiers guarding the task force headquarters told the news crew: “I am ordering you not to take footages.” When one of the reporters asked what the basis for the order was, the American replied: “I don’t understand you, but don’t make me take your camera.”

Sought for clarification, Westmincom spokesman Lt. Col. Randolph Cabangbang clarified the American soldier’s actions, saying that the journalists were in a secure facility “and persons going there need clearance” to shoot video and other images.
But as reported by Alipala, the news crew was taking footage outside the task force headquarters.

Even granting Cabangbang’s explanation is appropriate, we maintain that foreigners still have absolutely no authority to tell us Filipinos what we can or cannot do in our own country, much less threaten to confiscate our property. If they had any issue, they should have conveyed it to their local counterparts who could then have relayed the matter to the journalists concerned.

As far as we are concerned, the task force headquarters is not sovereign American territory; it is Philippine territory that the visiting foreign troops are just allowed to use as part of a defense agreement.

The said reported incident only justify what we kept on saying and have written that the US troops are here to stay. And, that we don’t have visiting forces anymore. The visit became permanent, meaning, the VFA, despite the growing clamor for its termination, “legalizes” the so-called mobile and flexible forward operating bases here. These bases are not limited to training and capacity building. They go further by allegedly providing “logistical and intelligence support.” This term is so broad that under US interpretation, it allows actual immersion in combat operations.

“There is high probability as well as existing accounts that the US forces are engaged in combat operations. The US Institute for Peace, a US government funded institution, described the role of the US forces deployed in Mindanao in its February 2008 report. The deployment of US forces in Mindanao was not for humanitarian missions or civic actions, but for specific military objectives”. (Robert D. Kaplan, “Imperial Grunts,” Atlantic Monthly, October 2008, available online)

With the unending war in the south, may it be against the secessionists and/or the bandits, and the growing tension between the US and China via the Korean Peninsula, this country’s leadership has given up our armed forces in the hands of Uncle Sam through the VFA. Statements from the people of the VFA commission had clearly stated that to do away with the VFA is too radical (translation – VFA will stay and so are the American troops). Even its review will be far-fetched based from President Noy’s statement that the VFA has its benefits.

Again, we are not against the Americans but important things had to be clarified and “real benefits” should be given to us. The glaring reality is here, whether we like it or not - because this VFA could make our country the GROUND ZERO of the looming US-China War.

God forbid!

Peace by All Means

2010-12-26T22:29:00.001-08:00

Peace by All Means
By Erick San Juan

The recently concluded China-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) joint working group (JWG) fifth meeting on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) in southwest China's Kunming City, reaffirmed the importance to make the South China Sea a place of peace, cooperation and friendship.

The DOC is meant to diminish the threat of war or a military clash in the South China Sea. It has important significance in creating an environment for cooperation, peace, and stability in the region and in promoting trust, confidence building, and mutual understanding between ASEAN and China. That is why Beijing is very firm on its stand on the bilateral settlements of whatever disputes which concern the islands in the South China Sea because as a matter of policy, to include the U.S. will complicate things in the process. Although the navigation security and navigation freedom have always been upheld in the South China Sea.

The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) was signed on November 4, 2002 during the Eighth ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia by leaders of ASEAN and China. The parties unanimously considered that this event has made an important contribution to the maintenance of peace and security in the region and to the promotion of development and cooperation.

The South China Sea is of great importance to China, to the ASEAN and other countries. About 25 percent of world shipping transport moves through the South China Sea. It is also critical for the military fleets that move from the Pacific region to the Indian Ocean.

Being a part of this important region, we should be cautious at all times and put the welfare of our country first and the rest of the region second. We have been shortchanged and outwitted through the collaboration of some of our leaders. We cannot afford a repeat of our country’s history where our protectors failed us.

Like all the other peace-loving countries, we want peace and development in this area although we have to play another role as an ally to a perceived rival of China – the US. When these two superpowers claim their “core interest” and “national interest” in this region respectively, how about “our interest”?

The last DoC meeting is just among the many efforts that the countries in this part of the world will have to undertake to keep the peace and harmony in this region alive. The impending threat of a regional conflict via the Korean peninsula is still in the offing and it could be the next "Pearl Harbor". The world is breathlessly awaiting a peaceful resolution to put an end to this brewing dispute.
In this globalized world where new powers are playing through soft touch operation and behave like "Maggi bearing gifts", diplomacy should be revised and updated. War freak ops does not apply today where most rich nations and rogue states are now members of the NUKE club. It will be MAD(mutually assured destruction). We should all be vigilant as we wait for that elusive peace to happen and more prayers for a peaceful New Year.

God bless us all!

Wikileaks Weaving a www (Worldwide Web of War) Scenario?

2010-12-20T21:05:00.000-08:00

Wikileaks Weaving a www (Worldwide Web of War) Scenario?
By Erick San Juan

What could have been confidential cables from the US embassies around the world to a few, for others they were treated as pure gossips and should belong to entertainment page of a tabloid. Others treat such leaks and the plight of its founder as something out from a Bond movie. But whatever and however people take this information technology saga, the question is – who benefits? What could be the agenda of the manipulators behind such “leak”?

Since the release of classified US military papers by WikiLeaks, the material has been aggressively spun by various political factions. Meanwhile, virtually no attention has been devoted to investigating the source of this “leak”, or questioning the agenda behind it. (The Political Spinning of the WikiLeaks Release: Anti-war Whistleblowing or War Propaganda By Larry Chin)

It is very important to take into consideration the views of several sections of the society who are skeptical as to the authenticity of the cables and what motivated such propaganda.
In the case of our country, the timing of the leak is quite suspicious and the content of the cables is obviously laying the predicate of something this government has to look into seriously.

The point raised by former President Fidel V. Ramos that "They (leak of the US State Department's "secret cable") are not really reliable. It's possible that some of them may have been manufactured. You have to accept that possibility. That's the way it is just like the social media it's not completely factual. I'm not saying these are lies, they may be exaggerations of concoctions to fit a certain situation."

Could this be possible?

Actually the word Wikileaks came from wiki and leaks, and wiki is the Hawaiian word for quick. Just like the famous Wikipedia, wiki and encyclopedia. So, just what is a wiki? What makes them so popular?

At its core, a wiki is a content management system. What this means is it is designed to allow people to create and edit web pages without any knowledge of HTML. This allows writers to do what they do best, which is write, and editors to do what they do best, edit.

The main thing that sets wikis apart from the pack is that they are community-oriented projects, often allowing the public at large to write and edit articles. This allows a wiki to draw upon the expertise of a large number of people, and to grow much quicker than if only a limited number of people were able to add to it.

The open-ended aspect of wikis does lead to some downsides. A wiki can be a target of people who want to post misinformation or simply vandalize an entry. However, the good outweighs the bad, and the open-ended nature allows wiki users to police themselves.

Also, compared to traditional methods of delivering content where one person or a limited group of people write and edit material to be posted on a website, wikis are very fast. Because they draw upon such a larger pool of writers, subjects can be entered at a much faster rate.

What differentiates a wiki from a blog is the fact that multiple people can -- and usually do in the case of popular wikis -- work on a single piece of content. This means that a single article could have as few as a single author or as many as tens or even hundreds of authors.

The bottom line here is that the Wikileaks can be edited, in Pinoy’s term – “bawas – dagdag” by a “community” who can “edit” the wiki to fit a certain situation. Translation – to create a pretext that will lead to a planned scenario that could benefit the interest of the few.

And the mainstream media’s role here is as crucial as the people behind the source, which is the Wikileaks, to choose what to make public and above all – the timing. Because the fact that the leaks that pertain to the Philippines are laying the predicate towards the overstretched global war on terror by our “neighbor”, this is quite alarming. Even our relationship with China is being pushed to the wall by unverified intrigues.

All these scenario-building, if not handled properly could lead to a regional conflict here and including the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East.

Like the people in the Palace and those who occupied it before, they are now saying that we should be wary and take these “leaks” with a pinch of salt.

Cables and Leaks: Friends and Foes

2010-12-11T23:24:00.000-08:00

Cables and Leaks: Friends and Foes
By Erick San Juan

So much has been written about the Wikileaks, or I should say – too much, and anything in excess is not good especially when it is creating a scenario where friends are being pushed to become enemies in the process.

The Philippines is a victim in this propaganda scheme, wherein a leak came out that “China has constructed a lighthouse on Subi Reef in the disputed areas in the South China Sea which Chinese troops are occupying but is being claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam.”

Methinks, the timing of the “leak” is suspect in laying the groundwork of intrigue between China and the Philippines, in lieu of the bilateral signing of military hardware deal. That was very substantial to our country which, unfortunately, has one of the weakest armed forces in East Asia. Our AFP is fighting a long-running insurgencies with both Communists and Islamic rebels.

It was a relief to know that the Wikileaks’ RP scenario was met by cooler heads and was actually downplayed by our military through the officials of the Department of National Defense, saying that the lighthouse had been constructed even before the Declaration of Conduct was signed in 2002. The said Declaration of Conduct prohibits any claimant country from constructing any structure in the area.

Eight years after the signing of the DoC, the implementing guidelines have yet to be finalized. China has been consistent with its position that the South China Sea is a bilateral issue among claimant countries and has tried avoiding discussion of it in ASEAN meetings. ASEAN, however, succeeded in having it discussed at the Asean-China summit in Hanoi last September. It was there that they agreed to meet in Kunming City on December 22 to 23 for the implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, a gathering which I believe will be fruitful amongst the claimants sans Uncle Sam.

Amidst the scripted “Subi reef lighthouse” courtesy of Wikileaks, the meeting of Armed Forces of the Philippines chief of staff, Gen. Ricardo David Jr., with China’s Defense Minister Liang Guanglie on December 7 and People’s Liberation Army Gen. Chen Bingde on December 8 in Beijing, was reportedly a success. Reiterating the stand of Beijing on the issue of the South China Sea disputes, Gen David said that peace and harmony shall be maintained in the region and together with the rest of the Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] countries, the disputes will be resolve peacefully.

Tensions in the South China Seas started since the saber rattling became an open secret. When US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced at the Asean Regional Forum a couple of months ago, that the U.S. “has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia’s maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea,” where the islands are located. Clinton added that “We oppose the use of threat or force by any of the claimants,” as "America’s future is intimately tied to that of the Asia-Pacific.”

Going back to Wikileaks’ cables and leaks, according to the article of F. William Engdahl (Wikileaks - A Big, Dangerous US Government Con Job) - Most important, the 250,000 cables are not "top secret" as we might have thought. Between two and three million US Government employees are cleared to see this level of "secret" document, and some 500,000 people around the world have access to the Secret Internet Protocol Network (SIPR net) where the cables were stored. Siprnet is not recommended for distribution of top-secret information. Only 6% or 15,000 pages of the documents have been classified as even secret, a level below top-secret. Another 40% were the lowest level, "confidential", while the rest were unclassified. In brief, it was not all that secret.

And…..

What is emerging from all the sound and Wikileaks fury in Washington is that the entire scandal is serving to advance a long-standing Obama and Bush agenda of policing the until-now free Internet. Already, the US Government has shut the Wikileaks server in the United States though no identifiable US law has been broken.

The process of policing the Web was well underway before the current leaks scandal. In 2009 Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller and Republican Olympia Snowe introduced the Cyber Security Act of 2009 (S.773). It would give the U.S. President unlimited power to disconnect private-sector computers from the internet. The bill "would allow the president to 'declare a cyber-security emergency' relating to 'non-governmental' computer networks and do what's necessary to respond to the threat." We can expect that now, this controversial piece of legislation will be a top priority when a new Republican House and the Senate convene in January,2011.

The raging information war via the freedom to surf the internet will now be curtailed for the benefit of the globalists who don’t want to be exposed on their agenda to deceive the world. Let us all be on the lookout for such deception and careful not to be carried away with the hype created for the convenience of the few.

Many Filipino scholars believe that the U.S. government has never recognized Philippine sovereignty over the Kalayaan group of islands. In 1992, the U.S. even signed an oil exploration with China in the KIG. Our policy makers should read between the lines. Let's be wary of double talks so that we can protect our national interests and so as not to sacrifice our national security and sovereignty.

Rhetorics and Deceits

2010-12-06T06:06:00.000-08:00

Rhetorics and Deceits by Erick San Juan

The Philippines and the rest of the world is now in the wait and see mode as the events in the Korean Peninsula unfold. When the possibility of a unified Korea is not a far-fetched scenario to encircle China in the process. While here at home, a balkanized Mindanao is in the offing. How can we afford to enter a war not of our choosing when we have a ticking bomb down south waiting to explode if things are not handled properly?

There is no other term more appropriate to describe the efforts of some evil-minded and selfish individuals than the word balkanization. It is a negative geopolitical term originally used to describe the process of fragmentation or division of a region or state into smaller regions or states that are often hostile or non-cooperative with each other. The term has arisen from the conflicts in the 20th century Balkans. While what is now termed Balkanization has occurred throughout history, the term originally described the creation of smaller, ethnically diverse states following the breakup of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. (Source: Wikipedia)

Throughout history, nation-states were divided or balkanized as orchestrated by globalists to suit their agenda. But always the bottom line is – to exploit them and their natural resources.

The age-old imperial method of divide and rule is very much in force to countries that had experienced such scheme. But in the age of globalization, David Icke calls this technique: problem-reaction-solution (P-R-S). Create the problem, encourage the reaction “something must be done”, and then offer the solution. Create the chaos and then offer the way to restore order. Your order.

Actually there are some underlying elements and concepts behind every balkanization process such as:

- Protracted Social Conflict is a theory developed by Edward Azar. The term refers to conflict situations characterized by the prolonged and often violent struggle by communal groups for such basic needs as security, recognition, acceptance, fair access to political institutions, and economic participation. The communal groups may experience deep-seated cleavages based upon racial, religious, cultural or ethnic lines. These cleavages are characterized by continuing hostility with sporadic outbreaks of violence; and caused by the frustration of human needs for security, recognition, and distributive justice.
- Sectarian violence and/or sectarian strife is violence inspired by sectarianism, that is, between different sects of one particular mode of thought/ideology or within a nation/community, with the division not necessarily based upon religion. Religious segregation often plays a role in sectarian violence.
- Social polarization is associated with the segregation within a society that may emerge from income inequality, real-estate fluctuations, economic displacements etc. and result in such differentiation that would consist of various social groups, from high-income to low-income.
As we write this piece, the ongoing peace talks between the GRP and the MILF is also in the wait and see mode as they near the deadline come December 9, 2010 because the government has requested the four nations to extend for three months their involvement in peace-monitoring activities in Mindanao with formal talks to start soon.

In a statement, Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Q. Deles said the Department of Foreign Affairs has issued notes verbal to member-countries of the International Monitoring Team (IMT), namely, Malaysia, Brunei, Libya and Japan to extend their stay beyond December. Under the terms of reference signed by the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in Kuala Lumpur on Dec. 9, 2009, the IMT has a one-year term which ends this month.

Malaysia has 20 representatives in the IMT with 15 members from Brunei and two from Japan. Libya also has three representatives in the ceasefire monitoring group.

The group monitors the implementation of ceasefire, socioeconomic and humanitarian agreements in the peace process.

Last Friday, Japan and Brunei have agreed to extend their participation in the IMT and Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Deles said the government is also confident that Malaysia would likewise heed its request for an extension of the stay of the International Monitoring Team (IMT) in the south.
Meanwhile, the MILF through its negotiating panel member, Maulana Bobby Alanto has been issuing intriguing statements at the Luwaran, the MILF's website, the latest of which is entitled "The Clash Between Two Political Realities: Will it Lead to Final Peace?" He said that as revolutionary negotiators, guesswork is not our cup of tea. As they evaluate and assess things, they look at the roadsides for tell-tale signs. The 'negotiated peace' as the destination and the 'peace process' as the vehicle. The MILF are seeing 'signs' which cast doubt on whether they will arrive at the desired final point of disembarkation. He said, "The road is not only bumpy and full of potholes, the 'milestones' indicate that we are nowhere near our goal. The road signs tell the 'vehicle' has veered farther away and is moving into an unknown destination in the twilight zone.
Since the start of Alanto's statement. the MILF is cynical of the peace agreement and I believe that the MILF is asking for the sky which is really an impossible dream because of their claim for 'statehood'. It would require the amending of the constitution which the Supreme Court already rejected.

Dean Marvic Leonen of UP Law and the chair of the GRP Peace Negotiating Panel used catch phrases like "universe of possibilities" which the MILF believe is a synonym for thinking 'out of the box' in resolving a sovereignty based conflict. The MILF even castigated several newspapers and Manila based radio commentators who they believed mislead and outrageously claimed that it's a 'sell-out', giving away to the MILF and their foreign benefactors the oil and gas rich territory of the Philippine state. The MILF insists that Liguasan Marsh is part of their ancestral domain. Alanto said that the constitution should be amended to rectify the injustices committed on the Bangsa Moro people.

Excuse me? Alanto should be reminded that even some "geniuses" in their camp like Michael Mastura ran and was part of the Philippine government in the past. Why blame the Philippine government for the wrong doings of your local Muslim leaders and politicians who did injustices to their fellow Muslims and constituents? Alanto is even comparing our Muslim brothers to what's happening in Palestine. Our Muslim brothers were never deprived of food, medicine and shelter. They can move freely anywhere in the Philippines except for combatants bringing weapons which is not authorized by our existing laws.

Our government should think twice and should stop giving these people the 'Status of Belligerency' where their warlords/leaders and foreign benefactors will just benefit. The word "PEACE" has been prostituted again and again. Let's be wary that greed and power is the name of the game in warlordism. In the end, these warlords will fight each other, especially now that a force from within wants to have a new 'master' who has "something better to offer". Just wait and see, that’s the true face of political reality.

The VFA “fixers” and RP Repeating History

2010-11-29T15:23:00.001-08:00

The VFA “fixers” and RP Repeating History
By Erick San Juan

Can we defend our nation against aggression from other countries? Can we do it alone in this chaotic world if we are going to cut off relationship with the U.S.? Some nagging questions that hovers above the archipelago for quite some time now amidst the growing tensions in the region coupled with the tensions for the review and abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).

VFA is simply an implementation of the Mutual Defense Treaty (signed in August 30, 1951). If we didn’t ratify this treaty, we don’t have the VFA today and might not have any visible opponents around us.

Actually the Mutual Defense Treaty was as hot as the VFA when it was ratified back then and one of the opponents was Senator Claro M. Recto (but he signed the treaty anyway together with the other senators). Here is the explanation of Sen. Claro Recto :

“I shall vote for its ratification, and I trust that the number of senators required by our Constitution shall vote likewise, but let us vote with our eyes open to what our votes shall mean to our people and this republic. We were outmaneuvered, outsmarted, and outreached in the negotiation of this treaty. But at least, in ratifying it for lack of something better, let us not believe we are getting a good bargain. It is hard enough to be outwitted. Let us not fool ourselves, and let us not build a fool’s paradise for our trusting people.”

Let these words by Recto be a reminder to our current leaders in “fixing” the VFA. But like Sen. Recto, when he was careful during that time as not to antagonize the US too much, we always say that US is not our enemy though we must be given what's due us and not be shortchanged in the process.

Here is another direct remark from Sen. Recto when he stressed the lack of mutuality in the MDT :

“… it is not true either that America is giving us almost everything for nothing; on the contrary it is we who have given, and are giving, and will continue to give America almost everything for nothing...”

With this in mind, let me sight a news article that came out last November 23 that -Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) received $100.8 M worth of goods and services under a deal with U.S. last year. But it was charged $109.5 M according to the Commission on Audit. COA said that the AFP still reported a PhP6.2 billion balance in its guaranty deposits despite having wire transferred PhP5.32 billion to the US Treasury under foreign military sales required in the letters of offer and acceptance between US and RP. (Source: Manila Standard Today)

What Sen. Recto said 58 years ago is very much true today. Trust begets trust. We were shortchanged and outwitted again into believing that everything given by Uncle Sam is free. . .

In this case, as I always say, history repeating itself or that people keep on repeating history which is clearly not beneficial to us before, and until today.

Lest we forget, from the words of another nationalist – Dr. Francisco “Dodong” Nemenzo, “As a general rule, the stronger party in a bilateral negotiation prefers ambiguity because it allows a larger room for maneuver; but the weaker party - if mindful of its national interest - must insist on concrete formulations because it wants to limit the capacity of the stronger party to act unilaterally. In the particular case of the VFA, ambiguity is extremely dangerous for the Philippines. As I just pointed out, it can involve us in unnecessary conflicts with America's potential enemies in the region. And it runs counter to our avowed foreign policy objective of developing good relations with our neighbors."

This is the fundamental issue: Are our interests identical with those of America? Are America's enemies necessarily our own? I believe that our national interests may be different and, at times, contrary to those of the US. Therefore, we must pursue an independent foreign policy.”

We still don’t have the capacity to stand alone (and have an independent foreign policy) – militarily speaking because since the Americans left Subic and Clark, we did not have something to fall back on and had remain dependent on Uncle Sam’s support (which comes in trickles). That is why when China showed interest again in the disputed islands in the South China Sea, VFA was the convenient answer.

Can our leaders fix an agreement that was born out of the crucial need to counter a perceived enemy of Uncle Sam? In the midst of a possible regional conflict, are we going to allow a repeat of going to war not of our own liking just because we have an agreement that says so?

This is a wake up call to our leaders, our sovereignty is at stake here and hopefully, let's have a much better living legacy for future generations to come.

Party Talks and the United Nations, What Went Wrong?

2010-11-23T15:31:00.000-08:00

Party Talks and the United Nations, What Went Wrong?
by Erick San Juan

Will there be peace in this world? This is the big nagging question being asked by many people not only nationwide but worldwide. The main query is why some power blocs, who used to be known in the past as the number one defender of democracy throughout the world are now perceived as the main sponsor and "protector" of terrorists and rogue state leaders. Most of the peace talks in all parts of the world were either stalled or have failed. Even the United Nations is becoming fragmented. There's now BRIC- Brazil, Russia, India and China; NATO- North Atlantic Treaty Organization; SALT and other geopolitical and international organizations whose main purpose is to achieve peace and order. .

Instead of denuclearizing, every nations now are arming and many are members of the Nuke Club. One example is the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula. The 6-Party Talk over the North Korean nuclear weapons program and the incident at Cheonan between the two Koreas was stalled. As of this writing, North Korea bombed a border island of South Korea which created unrest to the two Koreas and the world. Geopolitical observers believe that this turbulence will be worst than the Korean War in 1953. At the onset, two South Korean mililitary were killed while some civilians and S.K. soldiers were injured. North Korea fired several artillery. The South Korean government held an emergency meeting to avoid the escalation of war. The attack was reportedly sparked by the South Korean military exercise near the island border, YEON PYONG.
The concerns of the South Korean and the U.S. on the North Korea's new nuclear facility could possibly irked the Kim's. An evolution of the situation in the Korean peninsula could push it's neighbors to arm and rearm their nation-states. Same pattern happens in other parts of the globe. Instead of warding off the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, it seems that some nations continue to sell arms. Methinks, deterrence and diplomacy could still work. The Security Council could be a dynamic participant in resolving the problems of nation-states , like the de-nuclearization of the Korean peninsula where U.S., Russia and China are involved. The one who has no special interests in the region should chair the peace settlement. This could be the reason why the United Nations chose Russia as the chair of the 6-Party Talk in working out peace and security mechanism in the North East Asia.

The meeting between US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on board the Air Force One, after the NATO meeting at Lisbon last week could be a welcome move. Both nations are considered top guns of the NUKE, INC. What about the relationship of Russia with China and China with the USA?
Here in the Philippines, the flash point to watch is the possible balkanization of Mindanao. The MILF could be the witting and unwitting tool in starting a firefight which could involve the Malaysians and the US in the process. Let's watch and deter the confluence of events in the offing. President Noy's administration, especially the National Security Council, should ever be vigilant to prevent a "designed war" using the blame game scheme of some evil genius through a false flag op!

"Terrorized Region Index"

2010-11-21T14:08:00.000-08:00

"Terrorized Region Index"
By Erick San Juan

Maplecroft, an international global risk advisory firm that rated the Philippines as No. 8 in terms of countries that are under extreme risk for terrorist attacks, is the same firm that rated RP at no. 6 last 2008-2009 Terrorism Risk Index. A report that was disputed by the Philippine military as baseless and had to be validated further to improve the situation in our country.

What is TRI anyway?

The Terrorism Risk Index (TRI) is developed by global risks advisory firm, Maplecroft, to enable organizations to identify and monitor terrorism risks to human security and international assets. The index uses data from June 2009 to June 2010 to assess the frequency of terrorist incidents and the intensity of attacks, which includes the number of victims per attack and the chances of mass casualties occurring. It also includes a historical component assessing the number of attacks between 2007 and 2009 and looks at whether a country is at risk from a long-standing militant group operating there.
Sixteen countries are rated as ‘extreme risk’ with Somalia (1), Pakistan (2), Iraq (3), Afghanistan (4), Palestinian Occupied Territory (5), Colombia (6), Thailand (7), Philippines (8), Yemen (9) and Russia (10) at the bottom of the ranking. (Source:Maplecroft website)

Sounds convincing if one will just take such report hook, line and sinker and not consider the most important element i.e. geopolitics.

The following are the definitions of geopolitics (for the information of our readers) :

For Oyvind Osterud, “In the abstract, geopolitics traditionally indicates the links and causal relationships between political power and geographic space; in concrete terms it is often seen as a body of thought assaying specific strategic prescriptions based on the relative importance of land power and sea power in world history... The geopolitical tradition had some consistent concerns, like the geopolitical correlates of power in world politics, the identification of international core areas, and the relationships between naval and terrestrial capabilities.”

For Henry Kissinger, “Geopolitics is studying geopolitical systems. The geopolitical system is, in my opinion, the ensemble of relations between the interests of international political actors, interests focused to an area, space, geographical element or ways.

From the Britannica Concise Encyclopedia: The study of geographic influences on power relationships in international politics. Geopolitical theorists have sought to demonstrate the importance in the determination of foreign policies of considerations such as the acquisition of natural boundaries, access to important sea routes, and the control of strategically important land areas. The term was first employed in the early 20th century by the Swedish political scientist Rudolph Kjellén (1864 – 1922).

The cited definitions clearly denote the importance of an “international interest” in certain areas, may it be water, land or terrestrial space. Maplecroft actually identified the regions that are being terrorized for reasons that benefits the “international political actors” as defined by Kissinger.

Obviously this is not something new especially to our blog followers and to our daily radio show listeners (over dzXQ 1350khz 4:30-5:30p.m.), we wrote several articles about the global war on terror (GWOT) and how countries are terrorized by some “bogeyman” or such “brand name” as al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden who were exposed by several American patriots as state sponsored "Frankenstein" . In this way, unwiiting and witting US troops together with the "coalition" with the pretext to restore democracy and uphold human rights can come into the picture with ease.

We will notice that majority of the countries that are rated in the “extreme risk” category are located in the middle east region and situated within the very important water ways. Somalia and Yemen are strategically situated along the Gulf of Aden, a major water way exit from the Red Sea towards the Indian Ocean. Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the immediate casualties of Dubya Bush’s "war on terror" for obvious reason that they are somehow “related” to bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terror group. And, are located in the “heartland” together with Russia as what Sir Halford Mackinder in England, in his formulation of the Heartland Theory in 1904. That is why the AQAP – al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was created.

Unfortunately, our country ranked at No. 8, will have to stay in the top ten list together with Thailand because geographically speaking we are tactically and strategically positioned in the South China Sea where tensions are gradually building up between the two giants – US and China. Both nations (Philippines and Thailand) have insurgency problems along their borders. Mischief between Christians and Muslims occur once in a while. Mindanao is on the verge of balkanization due to intervention and conflicting interests of some foreign governments. The region is very near to another major waterway – the Strait of Malacca.

As for Colombia, the neighbor of Venezuela (another terrorized nation as per Dubya Bush and the chicken hawks), is hugging the coastline of the Caribbean Sea, another major body of water.

Lastly, the Palestinian Occupied Territory where a “perpetual war” seems to be convenient to the “international political actors” to justify their presence in the region through an “ally”.

To conclude, the release of this so called TRI study is in line with their Atlas that would be made available in the market next month. What a PR work!

It will be best for our government to go back to basic. Address the terror myth by regulating the so called "security experts" who are used to parrot a spin. Reactivate our National Intelligence Board and maximize the coordination with no foreign observers. We have to protect and secure our national interests this time. Need we say more?

Another Terror Storm on the Horizon

2010-11-14T19:16:00.001-08:00

Another Terror Storm on the Horizon
By Erick San Juan

“If we understand the mechanism and the motives of the group mind, is it not possible to control and regiment the masses according to our will without their knowing about it?”
(Taken from the book Propaganda by Edward Bernays who is considered as the Father of Public Relations)

The discovered bomb packages from Yemen to Chicago might be a failure. For they did not serve the intention of destroying the aircraft where they were found nor reach its destination. The alleged sender of the packages as reported is the "al Qaeda" in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The “brand name” that is always conveniently use by its creator whenever there’s a need. It is no different with the Philippine setting of using the ASG-Abu Sayyaf Group, NPA-New People's Army, ABB- Alex Boncayao Brigade and now JI-Jemaah Islamiyah, etc. as the usual suspect. The pattern is easy to comprehend especially if the information is coming from the usual operators who are "experts" in fear-mongering. Unfortunately, the intention to sow fear and tension among the American populace and the rest of the world was achieved by the operator(s) of the failed bomb plot because of their assets in the media who readily leaked the myth without validating the story..

For those who are aware of such action, one can clearly identify this as a false flag operation – covert operations conducted by a clique in governments, corporations, or other organizations which are designed to appear as though they were carried out by other entities. Clearly the entity here is no less than the AQAP who many believed was a creation of an intelligence agency and state sponsored.

To name a few of the false flag operations that happened in contemporary history: Reichstag Fire (1933), Operation AJAX (1953), Operation Gladio (1947-1981), Gulf of Tonkin Incident (1964), Operation Northwoods, the London bombing (2007) and the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center bombing.

For every act of terror, one cannot help but ask the nagging question – who benefits?

Remember the failed underwear bomber plot from last year? “The plot is being played to the hilt on the TV media and especially on Fox "news." After reading recently that The Washington Post allowed a lobbyist to write a news story that preached the lobbyist’s interest, I wondered if the manufacturers of full body scanners were behind the heavy coverage of the Underwear Bomber, if not behind the plot itself. In America, everything is for sale. Integrity is gone with the wind.” (Is Anyone Telling Us The Truth? by Paul Craig Roberts, January 07, 2010)

Obviously, some governments use fear to control its citizenry and in the process the citizens will surrender their rights in the name of security. In the case of the former US President George W. Bush, he benefited from the 9/11 terror attack in several ways. The Indict Bush Now came out with this report of how Dubya Bush gained from 9/11 : 1) Bush got to implement the PATRIOT Act, which gave him an extraordinary amount of personal control by fiat over the country's society, commerce and economy, 2) Bush's War on Terror scared people into re-electing him for a second term, 3) the demolition of WTC7, which was executed under cover of the attacks, meant that records supporting the SEC's case against Enron, which Bush's longstanding friendship with Enron CEO Ken Lay left him susceptible to, was in an instant, vaporized. These are just some of the benefits enjoyed by the former President and the so called 'chicken-hawks' who actually warned the Americans and the rest of us that the war on terror may last a hundred years!

With the continuous scare-mongering coupled with actual acts of terror by the greedy evil-minded individuals, humanity will always be faced with fear and tension. To address this dehumanizing terror acts, people of the world must be united and watchful at all times.

Methinks that with our concerted efforts, we can endure every terror storm that will come our way especially with the help of the internet. Vigilant groups through their blog sites can easily spread the word of an impending terror act so that it could be exposed. Like what we are doing here in our country, vigilance is always the antidote against the criminal-minded individuals and vested interest groups and expose their plans before they can implement them. In this way, several lives will be saved in the process and such perpetrators will have to think twice before doing another criminal act.

Let us not allow another 9/11. We can do it if we will always be alert and equipped for the next terror storm.

The Alarming Falsehood and Half-truth

2010-11-07T17:33:00.000-08:00

The Alarming Falsehood and Half-truth
By Erick San Juan

In today’s world of high technology and as the world becomes smaller through fast paced means of communication, ordinary people now find it hard to sift through all the information they are getting. But for those who are aware of the daily spins where the mainstream media, most of the time became the witting and unwitting tool in feeding the public, it is easier to draw the line between truth and a lie. As an observer of events unfolding here and abroad, we can say that where fact ends, lies and bigger lies begin to condition the minds of the people who are afraid to think beyond what is being forced to them to believe. Thus, creating delusion in the process. For as long as there are people who are willing to believe and for others, to be willing tools to the myth – mongering, humanity will suffer the consequences.

Take for example the recent bomb scare allegedly found inside an ink cartridge in a plane bound for Chicago, USA. The alarming truth to this false alarm was clearly reported that – “After having examined the suspicious ink toner device for six hours and found it to be a dud, bomb experts at East Midlands Airport only reversed their decision after being ordered to re-inspect the package by US authorities following President Obama’s Friday afternoon speech in which he claimed that the devices did in fact contain explosives”. (Did Obama order British Authorities To Find Non-Existent Ink Bomb?, Paul Joseph Watson of Prison Planet.com) The telling contradiction in the timeline of the cargo bomb plot fiasco proves that the story was being hyped and manipulated from the very early stages.

However, despite the fact that authorities not only in the UK but also in the cases of the Newark and Pittsburgh packages, initially gave the “all clear,” according to CNN, President Obama, having already been informed of the plot the night before, simply contradicted the very experts who had dismissed the devices as duds, claiming the packages contained explosives. This soon mushroomed into a media scaremongering blitz about powerful explosives that could have knocked dozens of planes out of the sky. (Ibid)

Now that the predicate was laid, it is but logical to ask – who benefits? (Note: I will elaborate this terror scare in global perspective on my next article. Let me focus first here at home.)

It is quite obvious that our country is one of the casualties here, as one foreign government after another gave their travel advisory that RP is faced by an imminent terrorist attack, particularly – Manila. We can’t help but cite here the statement of the good Ambassador, Harry K. Thomas, Jr., a day after the inauguration of President Aquino III (this was only last July 1, 2010) : “I don’t see the Philippines as a breeder of terrorism but I see the Philippines as a partner to rid the world of terrorists.”

And at the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines (JSOTF-P) change of command ceremony last July 3, Amb. Thomas said that the rebel groups Abu Sayyaf, Jemaah Islamiyah and Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM) have become much weaker.
With the above mentioned reports, as a loyal ally and friend of the rest of the community of peace-loving nations, why is it that the US government was among the first who issued the travel warning against the Philippines?

Again, we have nothing against the Americans, like us, majority of them are being taken for a ride here on the global war on terror (GWOT) which took effect after the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center. But let us all be clear here as to the credibility of the said terror threat. As a nation that had suffered enough especially in our tourism industry in the aftermath of the hostage crisis three months ago, we just cannot take this sitting down.

It is good that President Benigno Aquino III said that foreign governments were wrong in warning of an imminent terrorist attack in Manila. Government security forces even downplayed the separate arrests of five men and the seizure from them of explosives, which evidently were meant for fishing rather than bombing. It was President Aquino’s strongest statement yet in the past few days against what he had described as unsubstantiated intelligence reports on the supposed terror strike in Metro Manila.

Filipinos should unite in support of our leaders against this terror myth affecting us as a nation. A group headed by a certain Professor Rommel Banlaoi, executive director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR), after they announced that the “bomb expert” with links to the regional terror group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and who stayed in Mount Cararao in Maguindanao in the last few months has made contact with the Sulu-based bandit group Abu Sayyaf, travel warnings were issued. It became a "gospel truth" after his group predicated it at an international security forum at Dusit Hotel last October 29. In local lingo-"NABILI NA YAN." "LUMANG SCRIPT NA YAN.'

Who are we going to believe? Marine General Ben Dolorfino, a converted muslim and a real expert on jihadists or a certain “security expert” Prof. Rommel Banlaoi? Who is he really working for? PIPVTR should have coordinated what they know, as courtesy to our DND, NSC, NICA or ISAFP so as to assist in apprehending these terrorists and neutralizing them..

There is no hope to this country if our fellowmen themselves will be part of the scare-mongering. Let us stop this and be steadfast in protecting our nation against state-sponsored terrorism slowly eating into the minds our citizenry and the rest of the world. The alarm bells for truth should be louder than that of the false alarms being concocted by some evil-minded heartless individuals who could be working for foreign governments or vested interests.

God bless the Philippines!

VFA or MBA (Mutually Beneficial Agreement)?

2010-10-31T20:23:00.001-07:00

VFA or MBA (Mutually Beneficial Agreement)?

By Erick San Juan

The review of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) by the Presidential Commission on the VFA headed by Executive Secretary Paquito Ochoa Jr. has started and with the commitment to have a “thorough review of the VFA so that refinements could be introduced to ensure that the country would get maximum benefits from the bilateral agreement.”

Someone might ask, why the Executive Secretary and not the Senate to do the said “review”? According to the Executive Secretary, the commission (Presidential Commission on the VFA) was created in 2000 under the Office of the President “to ensure that visiting US troops will respect Philippine laws, policies, public morals, customs and traditions.” But, did the commission did its best to attain that respect for our laws, policies, public morals, customs and traditions in the Subic rape case?

Then last Oct. 1, President Noynoy Aquino issued Executive Order No.9, which amended EO 67 released in January 2002. This EO 9 reorganized the Presidential Commission on VFA and named the Executive Secretary as chair of the commission with Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin as co-chairs. The other members of the commission are the secretaries of the Department of Justice and the Social Welfare and Development, the executive director of the commission, and a private sector representative to be appointed by the President.

With the reorganized commission in place, PNoy should be clear of what he meant by “refinements” to the agreement. As what Senator Francis Escudero the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Justice said that the term “visiting” must be clarified. “Where in the world can you find a visit that lasts for 365 days? That’s no longer called a visit. Either change the name or follow the definition of a ‘visit’,” he concluded.

Sen. Escudero is for renegotiation but the Senate should be involve in the review and for him, termination of the VFA could be the last option. He still thinks that the VFA is useful because of the $60 to $80 million in US annual military aid to our country.

Methinks that this must be changed and opt for that “maximum benefits” that the commission promised to achieve. Let us not settle for less, we have been shortchanged for a long time. If the agreement has to be mutually beneficial, our share of the benefits should be equally given or more.

Remember that our country is Uncle Sam’s lightning rod in this part of the globe, whether we like it or not. And the confluence of events clearly signifies that Uncle Sam needs us more than ever. So, why not demand what's due us that has been put off in the past by the previous leaders.

The moment is now to be a demanding ally and a long-time friend, the fact that Washington is very keen on the developments in the South China Sea particularly the claimants’ stand in relation to Beijing’s “core interest” in the region.

The Filipinos must stand united behind our leaders to get what must be given to us by Uncle Sam,to truly achieve a mutually beneficial treaty and not MAD (mutually assured destruction) in the process.

God bless the Philippines......

RP : “Asia’s Lightning Rod”

2010-10-19T20:22:00.001-07:00

RP : “Asia’s Lightning Rod”

By Erick San Juan

It would be five years now since that fateful day in November, 2005 when “Nicole” accused US Marine Lance Corporal Daniel Smith of raping her as his three companions cheered inside a moving van. In April last year, the Court of Appeals reversed the decision of the Makati court and ordered Smith’s immediate release, saying “a careful and judicious perusal of the evidence on record does not convince the prudent mind about the moral certainty of the guilt of the accused, hence, we must acquit.”

This time around we refuse to say “the rest is history” line because the case of “Nicole” (whatever life she has chosen) is beyond the issue at hand that has affected (and will affect) the Filipino nation. The 2005 Subic rape case by a US Marine has triggered several sectors in our society to review and/or terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) that was used by the US government and gave them the custody of the said Marine soldier through their embassy here.

As we write this piece, Senator Miriam Santiago is again, calling for the termination of the VFA even though PNoy has already told the US government through the good Ambassador, Harry Thomas Jr. that the agreement needs to be “refined”. And PNoy appointed his Executive Secretary Paquito Ochoa Jr. as head of the Presidential Commission on the VFA. Ochoa will only discuss the possible modifications in the agreement with US officials. Aside from this, the Department of Foreign Affairs has started reviewing the VFA for the past weeks and a DFA official said that the abrogation of the agreement is too extreme.

The militant groups see this "safe" stand by our government on the VFA question as a possible side effect of the $434 million US grant which the Millennium Challenge Corporation gave to PNoy in the U.S.

In the midst of all these, we should be wary and heed the call of Senator Santiago because what is happening now, just right in our backyard is a brewing regional conflict. As the good Senator has put it – our country is “acting as a lightning rod for the enemies of the US.” Translation – through the VFA, we cannot do anything but to follow the dictates of Uncle Sam, be the shock absorber and fight a war that we never wanted.

Sad to say that such things are possible considering the glaring truth of the US troops presence in the south for over a decade now. Do we call that “just visiting”?

The urgency for the termination of the VFA is only fair, as Sen. Santiago has kept on saying that presidential action is not necessary in terminating the VFA because Congress has the power to revoke laws.

“Because treaties are considered as part of the laws of the land, Congress can abrogate the treaty on its own. The Constitution states that the country adopts the generally accepted principles of international law as part of the law of the land. it is within the powers of Congress to unilaterally terminate the VFA through a joint resolution, and that the executive’s role is to give notice of termination to the United States, although the decision itself is one for Congress to make. In the case of the U.S. government, there should be no problem because it does not recognize the VFA as a treaty. The US Congress never gave its advice and consent to it”.

Therefore, she said the VFA is not valid and constitutional because it is not recognized as a treaty by the US on the account of its own Constitution and law.

We are not against the U.S. government but we have to get what's due us.Need we say more?

Let's Make a Beneficial Deal

2010-10-17T19:03:00.001-07:00

Let's Make a Beneficial Deal

By Erick San Juan

This week, from October 21 to 24 is the Philippine Russian Business Forum and Exhibition to be held at the Cebu International Conventional Center. This year’s event will highlight products and services related to tourism and wellness, trade promotion and development; mining and energy; education and culture; labor, placement services and outsourcing; retirement facilities and real estate development. Russia is the country’s largest trading partner in Eastern Europe. It is the country’s 23rd trading partner at a global scale with a total trade value of $389.736 million. The country’s export to Russia increased by 15.21 percent reaching $39.086 million last year from $33.93 million recorded a year ago.

I was amazed to know that even last year’s business forum was joined by about 170 local and 30 Russian delegates. Its key achievement was the signing of the Air Service Agreement between Philippines and Russia.

This will be the second forum and according to Panay News report, this will go on for the benefit of both countries. They will allegedly be transparent as possible in their partnership.

Another old partner and neighbor – China, also expressed its support for PNoy’s public-private partnership (PPP) projects for infrastructure particularly in the country’s railway system and also for renewable energy. This is a very promising show of support after what we have gone through since that fateful August 23 incident. The PPP projects that China will invest in are the ones that we need badly, like in our railway system.

Actually, RP has used only one-third of the $1.8 billion loan facility from China’s Export-Import Bank and we can tap this loan anytime for the said projects.

The undertakings of both Russia and China to help boost our economy are the concrete actions that we are hoping this administration will prioritize so that all us will mutually benefit in the process.

We must not be taken for a ride by the rhetorics of some western investors’ pledges that had gone with the wind as PNoy rode the plane back from his recent reported “fruitful” trip. What we need are tangible results and not mere lip service which all Filipinos had too much of it in the past.

According to a statement by IBON Philippines Foundation - the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) signed during Aquino’s US visit “is biased against Philippine national interest and gives way for more erroneous policies that have eroded the local economy”.

The MCA’s US$434-million compact grant agreement of the US government’s Millennium Challenge Corp. (MCC) requires the Philippines to meet certain indicators such as open trade, economic freedom, good governance, adherence to human rights, etc. to continue receiving the aid.

We can’t help not to ignore the fact that strings are attached when it comes to Uncle Sam’s aid or grant. They have even enumerated the projects that this fund will go to. Still we must see beyond the rhetorics. Will it benefit the Pinoys more than the US? Or is it the other way around?

The investments in the fields of education and health seems to be not in tune with what this administration had adopted to attain its promise to eradicate poverty. A big section of our population is not agreeable to the additional years in basic education, and now the ever controversial use of contraceptives. We can’t help but ask, are these the instruments towards depopulation? Will this really benefit our people or the globalists’ through the IMF,World Bank,etc?

At the Daily Tribune's Sunday Editorial(Nov. 17,2010), it unmasked the truth about a cabinet secretary of President Noynoy. Despite his being in the president's loop handling a very sensitive post, he remains the governor of World Bank group,ADB and an alternate governor for the IMF for the Philippines. He allegedly facilitated the $434 million Millenium Challenge Corporation grant for "PNoy's anti-poverty program. We were not told that such funds, if it will really be given to this administration will be managed by an appointed IMF resident adviser at the BIR whose stay and payroll will be paid through that grant. The "embedded" IMF team would be reporting directly to the MCC-IMF..So expect more taxes. Our Asian neighbors like China are always there to help us. Even Russia now seems interested in doing business with us. Opportunity knocks only once. PNoy should not look farther away and put his heart for the good of the Filipino people. Now is the time to show greatness and political will.

Sino-American relations in the Sovereign Region

2010-10-10T17:59:00.000-07:00

Sino-American relations in the Sovereign Region

By Erick San Juan

It is beginning to be a constant worry for countries in this part of the Asian continent where China always finds itself to be in conflict with a disputed territory among its neighbors. Just recently, China and Japan had settled (for the meantime) the Minjinyu 5179 incident that happened in the disputed islands of Diaoyu/Senkaku in the middle of the ocean between the said countries. The dispute has lingered for decades over the political and economic regional balance of power and could well take a few more decades to settle. No matter what the consequences are, the conflict was peacefully settled and the perceived bigger dispute was put off, sans Uncle Sam’s intervention.

As one renowned Singaporean analyst of global affairs observed, Kishore Mahbubani in his essay ("Smart Power, Chinese Style", 2008), praised China for the "competence" of its diplomacy. He contrasted China's "deft geopolitical instincts" with American "incompetence" and "arrogance." He noted admiringly Beijing's fealty to ancient principles of Chinese statecraft once summarized by Deng Xiaoping, including admonitions to observe and analyze calmly, deal with changes patiently, and avoid the limelight.

Unlike the self-absorbed Americans, in Kishore's view, the Chinese had "developed a remarkable capacity to understand the voices of others around the globe." Compared with Washington's record of "geopolitical fumbles" abroad, China had evinced superior "geopolitical acumen and better professional diplomacy." He illustrated China's ostensible respect for the sovereignty of other countries with an item in the official China Daily stating that China had offered "no-strings-attached" aid to Africa.

This so-called “soft power” approach of China seems to be the threat to the Americans, as Beijing established economic allies in the process, instead of enemies regardless of territorial matters existing among its neighbors. The established economic ties was strengthened furthermore by the inauguration this year of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, which will lower or eliminate tariffs.

The following quote from a high-ranking official in an ASEAN country as told to Donald K. Emmerson in his article China's 'Frown Diplomacy' in Southeast Asia : "Remember, for us in Asia, the US is geopolitical, but China is geographical." In other words: Faraway friends are welcome and helpful, but the local landscape is a permanent fact. One has to adapt to it - and to the seascape - to survive. Translation – Asia is a sovereign region with independent countries trying hard to work out in an atmosphere of peace and interdependence among its citizens. Anything that will stir the calmness in the region through media hype via the mouthpiece of the globalists, could create a regional conflict in the process.

The aborted clash between China and Japan is just one of the hurdles that this Asian region had to overcome for there are still many perceived disputes, if not handled correctly may lead to a broader conflict. All of us will be drag to a war that we never wanted.

As for our “faraway friend” and his commitment to ASEAN, the South China Sea issue will be discussed again (with other crucial issues like economic and finance) before the year ends. US President Barack Obama and his two officials – US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary for Defense Robert Gates will be in Asia to attend summits to further discuss the regional security and its national interests here. What's in it for us? I hope that our citizenry will be vigilant enough and our president,PNoy should not be cowed, pressured nor tow the line of the globalists.

PNoy and the Legacy of Subservience

2010-10-03T16:32:00.000-07:00

PNoy and the Legacy of Subservience

By Erick San Juan

Some Pinoys think that the working visit of President Aquino III in the US was successful for he brought the bacon (and the hotdog?) home. We are referring to the $434-million Millennium Challenge Corporation “grant” that will be spread out in five years which is around $87 million per year that will reportedly fight poverty and corruption, and some alleged other pledges for investments.

Although one sector in our society who is not happy with the outcome of the President’s trip is the Catholic Church particularly on the issue of using contraceptives to curb the growing population. PNoy stressed that it should be the couple’s choice in the end as to what method of family planning that they will use. But the hype on the birth control issue persisted as word war continues. The Palace defended PNoy saying that he is just being consistent in his stand on the matter since the election campaign.

Unfortunately, the one important concern that PNoy must be constant in his position is the issue on the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) which he did not mention in his US visit to President Barack Obama or even to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Maybe PNoy was in a very tight situation during his visit as the coordinator of the second ASEAN-US summit that he was not able to bring the VFA matter up. Or the situation was just right for the RP President to discuss the issue because the ASEAN leaders, especially the claimants on the group of islands in the South China Sea , tackled the peace and security in the region,

The joint US-ASEAN statement came after a luncheon between US President Barack Obama and leaders of ASEAN member states on the sidelines of the United Nations' General Assembly meeting in New York, which stated - "We reaffirmed the importance of regional peace and stability, maritime security, unimpeded commerce, freedom of navigation, in accordance with relevant universally agreed principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and other international maritime law, and the peaceful settlement of disputes." A White House version released the same day notably added the phrase "including in the South China Sea ."

Such interference of Washington in the South China Sea is not and will always be a threat to Beijing as the encirclement of China (and possibly including Russia and North Korea ) build up through the help of Uncle Sam’s allies. PNoy just have to follow orders from a perceived master. So, in the end, what the Palace said about PNoy as not an American lapdog seems to be a lie? Will PNoy continue the legacy of subservience that might put this country into a battleground for the next regional conflict?

Unfortunately, Pinoys are being taken for a ride in all the propaganda (and lies) that confronts our nation today which are actually non-issue. We must be vigilant at all times because intended or not, the inverted Philippine flag at the UN General Assembly could be ominous as to where our country will be if this leadership will continue “that legacy” that might bring us all to a war that we never choose.

Rape with Consent?

2010-09-27T19:48:00.000-07:00

Rape with Consent? by Erick San Juan

The Aquino administration’s effort to investigate all Government-Owned and Controlled Corporations (GOCCs), Government Financial Institutions (GFIs) and other government agencies, where rampant expenditures and other perks are being given to government officials, is a welcome change. True to his words, PNoy is trying hard to eradicate corruption in order to achieve his commitments to those who voted for him (and for those who are still doubtful about his sincerity and capabilities to fulfill this).

Adding to the government’s list of offices that has to be investigated is the Malampaya. Just recently the “Commission on Audit has found that the government lost P53.140 billion between 2003 and 2009 from its share of the net proceeds from the sale of natural gas and condensates from the Malampaya project.”

This came about because the corporate income taxes of the project’s service contractors were deducted from the government’s 60 percent share, the COA said in its 2009 report on the Department of Energy. (Source: Phil. Daily Inquirer 9/18/2010 )

Then research group IBON urges the Aquino government to demand the service contractors of Malampaya Gas Project to immediately pay the Philippine government its share of the project’s income and refund the amount of taxes that the government practically paid on their behalf.

The understated proceeds are said to amount to Php53 billion because contractors Shell Exploration, Chevron and PNOC have been deducting their corporate income tax from the government’s 60%-share of the gas project since 2004. IBON notes that ironically, these lost revenues occurred during the period when Filipino consumers were reeling from sky-high prices of petroleum while the economy faced huge budget deficits.

The above mentioned reports appeared recently but I have been consistently urging the government for some years now, especially through my daily radio program (over DZXQ 1350khz, Mon. to Fri. 4:30-5:30 p.m. ), to look into the government shares in the Malampaya project. This is not new to all my regular listeners and I even mentioned about this a few times in some of my articles. Actually, the Malampaya exploration was a project of the late President Ferdinand Marcos with the late Armand Hammer, owner of Occidental Petroleum which was changed to Oxy and then Shell-BP. But like any ordinary Filipino will ask, why was the Malampaya oil and gas project given to Shell?

Let me quote a portion of Emil Jurado’s column that was published in Manila Standard Today dated January 8, 2010 – “And then there was this sweetheart deal between Cory and Shell that exempted Shell from income tax payments in the multi-billion Malampaya project off Palawan . This still holds true today and the amount involved is P70 billion, according to records. Cory was said to be very close to the then Shell Philippines president, Cesar Buenaventura who showered her with attention and flowers daily.” After a while, Buenaventura was given the Knighthood of her majesty, the Queen of England.

Sadly, this Malampaya issue had to come out in the late President Cory’s son term, but like Hacienda Luisita, PNoy must tackle this very important matter that is very near to every Filipino’s stomach that involves two giant oil companies – Shell and Chevron.

This matter had to be addressed as soon as possible especially now that there is an impending electricity rate increase because the power distribution company gets its supply from the Malampaya natural gas through WESM.

The Filipino people is now hit with a triple whammy "chubibo" courtesy of the oligarchs here and abroad. Are we going to just sit and be shortchanged again? And again? President Noynoy and DOE secretary Rene Almendras cant do something if we wil not get our acts together. Wake up Pinoy!

The Sino-American Conflict is Inevitable?

2010-09-20T19:29:00.000-07:00

The Sino-American Conflict is Inevitable?
By Erick San Juan

More than ten years ago, I wrote an article with a quite similar title that was published in one of our local papers, and this time around with another reason to be concerned about is the growing tension (again) between these two superpowers when it comes to geo-economics. We (and the rest of the world) are thankful enough that for the past decade since I wrote that article, the conflict was averted.
A lot of changes occurred in the field of firepower amongst strong nations and I am referring to hi-tech nuclear weapons’ unimaginable power that can annihilate huge areas with just a push of a button. Currently there are several IRBMs with nuclear warheads that were deployed and installed in the Asian NATO and unfortunately, the ICBMs installed here in our country will serve as a magnet during that regional conflict between the US and China, whether we like it or not.
This was carried out via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), an agreement that was asked to be reviewed and if possible, terminated by several senators since the Arroyo administration. The VFA review did not materialize then because the Philippines was and still is, with Uncle Sam in his fight against global terrorism. Several pressures were sent to then President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo through some high ranking US officials that “ Washington was happy with the VFA and there’s no need for renegotiation or review.”

Every time there is a clamor to review the VFA, we noticed that bomb threats and actual bombings particularly in the south, take place (translation – a false flag operation to justify the presence of US troops and the retention of the VFA). But this time, we just cannot afford to swallow such excuse and be apathetic in the midst of a serious global turbulence right here in our region where China and U.S.have both already established several chokepoints as preparation for a regional conflict.

The forthcoming working visit of President Benigno Aquino III to the U.S. is very significant because he will attend the UN General Assembly and also the meeting of the ASEAN plus the US . With the ongoing saber rattling, the United Nations should make the necessary preemptive move. Although China claims that it’s a regional problem that can be resolve by stake holders without the meddling of the U.S. If China do not want US, why not the ASEAN seek the help of probably India or Russia , who are big nations that cannot be bullied by neither of the contending giants.The NAM (Non-Aligned Movement) could also also be of help in pacifying the two nuclear giants.

As for P-Noy, he must listen to those who know a lot about international dealings based on geo-strategical perspective when it comes to the VFA issue, if ever he will have to meet US President Barack Obama. It is quite clear that the Filipino nation cannot afford to be the next battleground of the superpowers.
We hope and pray that the coming gathering of nations who subscribe to world peace and security, address this crucial issue and intervene to deter the impending Third World War.

US Overstretched GWOT (Global War On Terror) towards the “Boiling Point”

2010-09-15T13:28:00.001-07:00

US Overstretched GWOT (Global War On Terror) towards the “Boiling Point”
By Erick San Juan

As John F. Kennedy once said, “The greatest enemy of the truth is not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth – persistent, pervasive, and unrealistic.”

And this is exactly what the operators of the “war on terrorism” myth are doing since September 11, 2001 – to sow fear and instill in the minds of all people that there is always a threat from a terrorist group that can put the lives of many innocent people in great danger.

Take for example this news item that appeared last August 6 locally @ GMA News.TV: MIAMI – A suspected al-Qaeda operative who lived for more than 15 years in the US has become chief of the terror network's global operations, the FBI says, marking the first time a leader so intimately familiar with American society has been placed in charge of planning attacks.

Adnan Shukrijumah, 35, has taken over a position once held by 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who was captured in 2003, Miami-based FBI counterterrorism agent Brian LeBlanc told The Associated Press in an exclusive interview. That puts him in regular contact with al-Qaeda's senior leadership, including Osama bin Laden, LeBlanc said.

It was clearly stated here that whoever is behind al-Qaeda and bin Laden is actually putting more fuel to the already dying ashes of the said terror group and its leader. I want to share with you this article from Andrew Gavin Marshall : Robin Cook, a former British MP and Minister of Foreign Affairs wrote that al-Qaeda, “literally ‘the database’, was originally the computer file of the thousands of mujahideen who were recruited and trained with help from the CIA to defeat the Russians.” Thus, “Al-Qaeda” was born as an instrument of western intelligence agencies. This account of al-Qaeda was further corroborated by a former French military intelligence agent, who stated that, “In the mid-1980s, Al Qaeda was a database,” and that it remained as such into the 1990s. He contended that, “Al Qaeda was neither a terrorist group nor Osama bin Laden's personal property,” and further:

The truth is, there is no Islamic army or terrorist group called Al Qaeda. And any informed intelligence officer knows this. But there is a propaganda campaign to make the public believe in the presence of an identified entity representing the 'devil' only in order to drive the 'TV watcher' to accept a unified international leadership for a war against terrorism. The brains behind this propaganda has long been burn-out and the lobbyists for the US war on terrorism are only interested in making money.

The creation of Al-Qaeda was thus facilitated by the CIA as reported and by allied intelligence networks, the purpose of which was to maintain this “database” of Mujahideen to be used as intelligence assets to achieve the globalists foreign policy objectives, throughout both the Cold War, and into the post-Cold War era of the ‘new world order’.

We have written a lot already about bin Laden and his group together with credible and prominent writers on the internet, the bottomline here is – the global war on terror (GWOT), no matter how overstretched, is still the only reason for the globalists and its allies to justify its "humanitarian interventions" geared towards restoring ‘democracy’ in sovereign nations.

Such reasoning is very much felt in the Philippines through the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and how the secessionists in the South, including the ASG bandits, will remain there as active as possible (like al-Qaeda and bin Laden) to justify the American troops’ presence in the area. Most especially now that the US-China conflict is inevitable, in the midst of the deployment and installation of the Asian NATO in this part of the region. And the Philippines could be the battleground between these superpowers as the confluence of events might lead to that “boiling point” as told by my "primo",Dr. Jaime Sison. We will all be caught unaware, as our leaders seemed to be nonchalant and apathetic towards this very crucial unfolding of events.

As an observer of events, P-Noy should heed the advice of former President Fidel Ramos when he said that “he hopes that President Aquino III will see the big picture, noting that there is an ongoing power play between the US and China; and the Philippines could suffer collateral damage in the process.”

The Filipinos and the rest of the world could not afford another war, especially a nuclear war. Let us hope that the US visit of President Noy Aquino could bring positive outcome especially with the matters pertaining to the controversial VFA. God bless us all !

RP’s VFA and the GWOT (Global War On Terror)

2010-09-08T22:06:00.000-07:00

RP’s VFA and the GWOT (Global War On Terror)
By Erick San Juan

On Saturday, the world will commemorate the September 11, 2001 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York, USA. It was nine years ago and the effects of the so-called global war on terror (GWOT) is still very much in place in the hearts and minds of those who were fooled to believe the myth and the existence of the likes of Osama bin Laden and the al-Qaeda terrorist group.

Different countries, especially those that benefit from Uncle Sam’s aids and grants, towed the line on the so-called war on terror and incorporate in their legal system, laws that will punish "terrorists" and their cohorts. In our case, as a faithful US ally, the government passed into law the anti-terror act and later on made the former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the coordinator of the US government for Asia. In fact, this nine year old war on terror (now overstretched) has been conveniently used to justify a questionable agreement resulting to a more inconvenient relationship.

I am referring to our country’s alliance with the US and the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) that our government ratified in 1998 and entered into force in 1999, eight years after the closure of U.S. military bases in the Philippines in 1991. And two years after – the 9/11 terror attack.

Under the present administration of President Benigno Aquino III, there is a renewed call for the review/abrogation of the VFA from some of our legislators and several patriotic Filipinos. We are entering a very exciting times in world history and our leaders had to make that important decision for the sake of all Filipinos.

As I write this piece, investigations are being done on the two recent bombings in Mindanao that may be designed to prioritize our country’s commitment against global terrorism. Now that the period of Ramadhan has come to an end, P-Noy will now have to put the discussion on the VFA issue as his top agenda in his forthcoming US visit. Sadly, the perception is that P-Noy still lacks the experience in global perspective and in many aspects of governance that are much needed in this kind of international undertaking. That is the reason why we must require P-Noy to be transparent in his dealings with President Barack Obama. Especially now that we are in a very tight situation in relation to the growing conflict between US and China.

Added to this, P-Noy’s taking full responsibility of the August 23 hostage situation will not stop the Chinese nationals from criticizing him. The continuing show of naval military forces in the disputed islands in the South China Sea between US and China as reported worldwide plus P-Noy’s admission, can put our country in a difficult condition especially now that he has shown his partiality to the US as USS George Washington super aircraft carrier and three other warships docked in Manila for four days.

Let us all hope that this historic US visit of P-Noy (aside from being transparent) will bring positive results especially on the VFA matter that will benefit Uncle Sam and the Filipino nation as a whole. How I wish that it will not drag us to a shooting war (as part of Washington’s military - industrial complex) and raped with consent. . Political pundits are even wary of the Aquino clans political betrayals in the past. I hope that P-Noy can rectify this, preempt a repeat of bad history and will not be pressured to kow tow to the globalist agenda. May God save the Philippines!

Eco-politics of War

2010-09-04T14:12:00.001-07:00

Eco-politics of War By Erick San Juan

Our country and the rest of the Southeast Asian region has been on the lookout as tensions in the South China Sea grow by the show of force by both US and China through their naval military drills. As Washington renews its “ties” with Asian countries (particularly claimants over the disputed South China Sea’s group of islands), Beijing is not far behind, doing as much as possible the "soft power" approach in dealing with its neighbors.

Why the growing interest in the SCS (South China Sea)?

The focus on SCS started in the 90's and the saber rattling became an open secret when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced at the Asean Regional Forum recently that the U.S. “has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia’s maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea,” where the islands are located, and that “We oppose the use or threat of force by any claimant,” as "America’s future is intimately tied to that of the Asia-Pacific.”

While Beijing is being accused as the dominant force in the region, the Chinese are just expressing their core interest in the SCS which has been repeatedly reported that this disputed area is very rich in natural resources, specifically - oil and gas. This could be the underlying factor that draws the two powerful nations into this region. The fact that the Obama administration has been fighting so many fronts, the US economy has been losing a lot in the process. By contrast, the US military manufacturing is now 123 percent greater than it was in 2000 -- it has more than doubled while the rest of the manufacturing sector has been shrinking...

It's important to note that the trajectory -- the military economy is nearly three times larger, proportionately to the rest of the US economy, as it was at the beginning of the Bush administration.

The change in leadership in Washington does not appear to be abating the trend..

Most of the job creation has been by the public sector. But because the job creation has been financed with loans from China and private banks, trillions in unnecessary interest charges have been incurred by the U.S. (War and the Economic Crisis, Washington’s Blog).

As for the Chinese economy, with its fast growing industries, it needed all sources of energy available within its reach. Obviously, it will use it's firepower to protect it's claim over the group of islands near it's territory. Can the present Chinese leadership sustain this, amidst the growing domestic dissension among its elite members in the ruling Communist Party?

Moreover, there are rumors going around that have circulated in China that People’s Bank of China (PBC) Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan may have left the country. The rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish some individuals within PBC, including Zhou. Although Ming Pao on Aug. 30 published a report on its website indicating that the prior report was fabricated by a mainland news site that had attributed the false information to Ming Pao. Rumors of Zhou’s defection have spread around China intensively. Zhou’s name has allegedly been blocked from Internet search engines in China. (China: Rumors of the Central Bank Chief's Defection, Stratfor Report 8/30/2010)

According to some of my sources, this is just the tip of the iceberg and that the money involved could have reached trillions of dollars. If its true, like the US, China is also financially in trouble and the growing elite conflicts may lead to a “dash for democracy” like what happened in other Communist countries.

There could be a lot of reasons for the continuing conflicts in the South China Sea but no matter what, everything boils down to economics. This was proven in the recent past as we witness the big anti-terror war lie of the US as it ravaged oil-riched countries, one after another. Some pundits are even worried that the political bickerings among the elite in China could provoke a possible civil war or a fight against another nation could be the "wag the dog" scenario to unite them. For what ever it's worth, is our government prepared for this? Wake up!

When Foundations for a Regional Conflict Were Laid…

2010-08-30T20:13:00.000-07:00

When Foundations for a Regional Conflict Were Laid…
By Erick San Juan

China said on Thursday it had used a small, manned submarine to plant the national flag deep beneath the South China Sea, where Beijing has tussled with Washington and Southeast Asian nations over territorial disputes.

The submarine achieved the feat during 17 dives from May to July, when it went as deep as 3,759 meters (12,330 feet) below the South China Sea, the official China News Service said, citing the Ministry of Science and Technology and State Oceanic Administration.

Chinese news reports did not say where the submarine went, whether it visited disputed waters, or why the announcement was held off until now. It was the first time a Chinese submersible vehicle has gone that deep, said the reports. (Source: Phil. Daily Inquirer Online 8/27/2010)

And . . .

[Adm. Robert Willard, U.S. Navy]:
"The overall security, the maritime security and security of the air space in these international waters - vitally important. So the role of the United States Navy will be to maintain a continued presence in the region and to continue to work together very closely with our partners in the region to ensure that the sea lines and air lines of communication remain safe."

Admiral Willard says the U.S. Navy continues to monitor movements and provide military assistance in the South China Sea, a vital artery for trade with some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. The sea holds valuable fishing grounds and largely untapped oil and natural gas fields.

Given these scenarios and as one of the legitimate claimants on some of the islands in the South China Sea, we are in a helpless situation wherein most of our military officers has been trained and schooled in the U.S. (translation – the Philippines have to tow the line of the US foreign policy). And recently, the US will provide us with the necessary firepower to protect our maritime territories. Enough reasons that were clearly laid out by the US’ intention to establish a permanent presence thru our waters which is the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian oceans where half of the world’s oil tankers passes through.

After reading several articles on the internet by leading authorities on the growing disputes between US and China, both countries are actually testing each others capabilities in naval powers while the rest of the region just have to wait and see for who will make the first move that will trigger the next regional war.

But, US intervention, in which it aims to take a dominating role in the South China Sea disputes, will further complicate this issue, said Su Hao, director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Region at China Foreign Affairs University.

"It is supporting territorial claims of China's neighbors in order to contain China, but its intervention will have limited impact as long as China sticks to its position," Su said.

"China must be persistent in regional cooperation, bilateral and multilateral cooperation," urged Su, "but not have a sensational reaction and fall into the US' trap."

Gradually, Beijing is being drawn to Washington’s trap as the US Department of Defense's latest assessment of China's military, "2010 Annual Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China", was released. The US has provided the world with sobering news about China's military buildup and modernization.

"Other than limited credit given to the Chinese military's overseas peacekeeping efforts and humanitarian assistance, the annual report is making vague accusations over China's military power, growth and intentions," declared the Global Times. "The report calls for sustained and reliable US-China military-to-military relations. Yet, given the recent US military activities surrounding China's Yellow Sea and the South China Sea, including the symbolic presence of the aircraft carrier George Washington, has US military shown willingness to build mutual trust? The report illustrates the Pentagon's hostility against the Chinese defense sector. It also sent a confusing message to the world about China's military role."

The official Chinese reaction is no less irate. China described the assessment as exaggerating and distorting China's military strength.

"We firmly oppose this report," said Jiang Yu, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry.

The US report also "ignored objective facts" and is "not beneficial to the improvement and development of Sino-US military ties", said Geng Yansheng, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman.

Methinks that the release of the said annual report only heightens the tension between US and China and contributes to the growing mistrust between them. Sadly, the South China Sea will be the arena for the next regional conflict as foundations were laid by the two powerful nations.

When and how are we going to make a stand as a sovereign nation despite the fact that our leaders seem to kowtow to Uncle Sam’s wishes. We must take the lead to resort to peaceful dialogue and not through military might that will only add to the adversaries’ hostilities. We can’t afford to be at war, much more to a war that will never benefit us. May God bless and unite our people. May He touch our leaders, wake them up to reality, have the wisdom to do what is right and what will benefit the nation..