"The Writing is on the Wall"
By Erick San Juan
Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defence has written to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, as well as to President Medvedev, that President Hu Jintao of China has now agreed “in principle” that the only way to counter America’s military eruption and aggression is through “direct and immediate military action.” This explosive news has not appeared on the “Western” media! Earlier, Major General Zhao Zhangzhong of the Chinese National Defence University was quoted by a Chinese channel, NDTV, as having said that, if Iran was attacked “China would not hesitate to protect Iran, even with a Third World War.” (Source: How far is World War III? By Mujahid Kamran, posted on truther on December 22, 2011)
Is the report mentioned here that happened two months ago could be the reason why the US and its allies had second thought of attacking Iran? Although the events unfolding after this supposed “declaration” seems to be that Washington’s war plan is still on.
The program is still on, yes, it can be delayed. But the fact that Uncle Sam has made his presence in the Asia-Pacific region (again?) and called on its allies, we are very much on the edge of a possible global conflict, whether we like it or not.
SC and the VFA
Whether the regional conflict will start in the Middle East or in the Pacific region, our country is definitely in the cross hairs. Why is this so?
Simply put, as US President Barack Obama continued what former President George 'Dubya' Bush,jr. has started, despite the cut in its defense budget, so does President Benigno Aquino III following the footsteps of Gloria Arroyo. They are both perceived as loyal slaves, kowtowing to an elite master. Dragging us all into a war that we never dreamt of participating.
So what else is new?
Even in this so-called review of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), there’s nothing new about it, just plain and simple “chubibo” from the very start of this administration. Translation – a repeat performance (copied from the previous administration) with a different casting.
The mere fact that we are already being taken for a ride by Uncle Sam, are we still going to allow our own government deceive us into believing that all is well with the US troops staying (indefinitely) here and everywhere? What the American policy makers did was the transformation of our country into a huge military base! They are everywhere, anywhere, anytime. So the provision in the VFA of a “temporary” stay of the US troops, is a big BULL....! Need we say more?
To elaborate more, here is a portion of the article written by Mike Billington from the Executive Intelligence Review (EIR) :
“Now, Aquino and Obama are implementing the basing policy through outright dictatorial means, attempting to castrate the Supreme Court while preventing the issue from even being discussed in the Congress (which is largely controlled by the President, especially the House). The entire nation is caught up in the melodrama of an impeachment trial now going on in the Senate, and there is virtually no discussion of the illegality of the blatant move to establish the U.S. bases.”
There is one problem – the deployment of foreign military bases in the Philippines is explicitly forbidden in the Philippine Constitution.
To solve that pesky impediment, Obama has called upon his faithful puppet currently occupying the Philippine Presidency, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, to impose a virtual dictatorship upon the nation, by destroying the Supreme Court – the only institution which could stop the effort to rip up the Constitution and turn the Philippines into a military base, and canon fodder, in the intended war on China.”
The impeachment telenovela is muddling the real issue, while the nation is glued to its daily antic, our country is inching its way to the sacrificial table.
The present leadership must take heed for the “writing is on the wall".
May God help us all.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
More Clandestine Operations in the Offing
More Clandestine Operations in the Offing
By Erick San Juan
According to President Barack Obama, the “tide of war is receding”….
Is it? Or is it because the Pentagon is now focused on a more covert kind of war in the offing?
In his article - Special Ops Now Defines the Pentagon's Expanding Wars by Danny Schechter (blogger and filmmaker) states that “William H. McRaven is an admiral in Obama’s Navy. He was a member of Seal Team 3, and oversaw the killing of Osama Bin Laden.
He’s the consummate Special Ops warrior and wants more special ops forces, more drones and, most significantly, more “autonomy” (read, power) to position “his” troops in more places. He is now lobbying to expand his “freedom” by building a bigger arsenal of undercover operatives under his command.
The admiral's proposal, the Times notes, “would also allow the Special Operations forces to expand their presence in regions where they have not operated in large numbers for the past decade, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America.”
McRaven argues that “thickening the Special Operations deployments in these other regions would allow the United States to be ready to respond more rapidly to a broader range of threats.”
Special operations forces have already been deployed in over 75 countries, ranging from the Dominican Republic and Peru to the Philippines, Yemen, Somalia and central Asia.
The Philippines is not new to this Special Ops (as our country was mentioned in the news report ). We have the Joint Special Operations Task Force- Philippines (JSOTF-P), a unit that has been indefinitely embedded in southern Mindanao since 2002.
The JSOTF-P's stationing in Mindanao "is a prototype of the new kind of overseas basing that the US has introduced as part of its ongoing effort to realign its global basing structure," from a study made by Focus on the Global South.
Through the global war on terror (GWOT), it is much easier for Uncle Sam to justify these Special Ops to be stationed indefinitely in a country that is geostrategically located for their special covert operations.
Just recently, a news report from The Nation online cited that “The Pentagon used the Kashmir earthquake of 2005 to send operatives from the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) into Pakistan, reveals a new book.
"The JSOC has proven to be the most lethal weapon in the President’s arsenal.", as written by D.B Grady and Marc Ambinder in their just-published eBook The Command: Deep Inside the President’s Secret Army. President Obama and the Pentagon leadership have increasingly made Navy Seals from the JSOC their military tool of choice.
Furthermore – The authors of 'The Command' say that the US intelligence community “took advantage of the chaos to spread resources of its own” into Pakistan. Using valid US passports and posing as construction and aid workers, dozens of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives and contractors flooded in without the requisite background checks from Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency.”
The covert operation that was staged in Pakistan is similar to what had occurred particularly in Mindanao and we were ahead by three years. Unlike in Pakistan, the situation here is different, through the Visiting Forces Agreement, the JSOC established without much hassle the JSOTF-P. The main reason for the indefinite stay of the special ops in the south is for anti-insurgency. Translation - that is why we never solve the insurgency problem in Mindanao because if we do, the JSOTF-P will no longer be needed.
The mere fact that the ‘JSOC would allow the United States to be ready to respond more rapidly to a broader range of threats’ their presence here is more beneficial to them than to our country. That is why all this talk about helping us modernize our armed forces (with WWII vintage junk military equipments) and patrolling our air and sea territories are all “chubibo”. We are being taken for a ride here and worst, we have to pay for that ride. What a big bull....!
Our so-called leaders must open their eyes to such deception by some officials of Uncle Sam. Remember that we are strategically located both in the Asia-Pacific region and near the Indian Ocean. So, if there will be any eventualities in the Middle East and Asia, like the threat of conflict in Iran, we are very much in the cross hairs. Why? It’s the presence of the JSOTF-P, st....!
Finally, for us and for all the countries with JSOC in their midst, whether we like it or not, “A commitment to more special forces is a commitment to more imperial intervention, and specialized units operating above the law and beyond the law. It’s more secrecy in government with a constant danger of abuse. It promises more secrecy and manipulation,” from Danny Schechter.
Is the ongoing political turbulence which could be sinister be the quid pro quo, believed by many as part of the exchange deal like the Marcos martial rule? Lets be vigilant!
By Erick San Juan
According to President Barack Obama, the “tide of war is receding”….
Is it? Or is it because the Pentagon is now focused on a more covert kind of war in the offing?
In his article - Special Ops Now Defines the Pentagon's Expanding Wars by Danny Schechter (blogger and filmmaker) states that “William H. McRaven is an admiral in Obama’s Navy. He was a member of Seal Team 3, and oversaw the killing of Osama Bin Laden.
He’s the consummate Special Ops warrior and wants more special ops forces, more drones and, most significantly, more “autonomy” (read, power) to position “his” troops in more places. He is now lobbying to expand his “freedom” by building a bigger arsenal of undercover operatives under his command.
The admiral's proposal, the Times notes, “would also allow the Special Operations forces to expand their presence in regions where they have not operated in large numbers for the past decade, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America.”
McRaven argues that “thickening the Special Operations deployments in these other regions would allow the United States to be ready to respond more rapidly to a broader range of threats.”
Special operations forces have already been deployed in over 75 countries, ranging from the Dominican Republic and Peru to the Philippines, Yemen, Somalia and central Asia.
The Philippines is not new to this Special Ops (as our country was mentioned in the news report ). We have the Joint Special Operations Task Force- Philippines (JSOTF-P), a unit that has been indefinitely embedded in southern Mindanao since 2002.
The JSOTF-P's stationing in Mindanao "is a prototype of the new kind of overseas basing that the US has introduced as part of its ongoing effort to realign its global basing structure," from a study made by Focus on the Global South.
Through the global war on terror (GWOT), it is much easier for Uncle Sam to justify these Special Ops to be stationed indefinitely in a country that is geostrategically located for their special covert operations.
Just recently, a news report from The Nation online cited that “The Pentagon used the Kashmir earthquake of 2005 to send operatives from the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) into Pakistan, reveals a new book.
"The JSOC has proven to be the most lethal weapon in the President’s arsenal.", as written by D.B Grady and Marc Ambinder in their just-published eBook The Command: Deep Inside the President’s Secret Army. President Obama and the Pentagon leadership have increasingly made Navy Seals from the JSOC their military tool of choice.
Furthermore – The authors of 'The Command' say that the US intelligence community “took advantage of the chaos to spread resources of its own” into Pakistan. Using valid US passports and posing as construction and aid workers, dozens of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives and contractors flooded in without the requisite background checks from Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency.”
The covert operation that was staged in Pakistan is similar to what had occurred particularly in Mindanao and we were ahead by three years. Unlike in Pakistan, the situation here is different, through the Visiting Forces Agreement, the JSOC established without much hassle the JSOTF-P. The main reason for the indefinite stay of the special ops in the south is for anti-insurgency. Translation - that is why we never solve the insurgency problem in Mindanao because if we do, the JSOTF-P will no longer be needed.
The mere fact that the ‘JSOC would allow the United States to be ready to respond more rapidly to a broader range of threats’ their presence here is more beneficial to them than to our country. That is why all this talk about helping us modernize our armed forces (with WWII vintage junk military equipments) and patrolling our air and sea territories are all “chubibo”. We are being taken for a ride here and worst, we have to pay for that ride. What a big bull....!
Our so-called leaders must open their eyes to such deception by some officials of Uncle Sam. Remember that we are strategically located both in the Asia-Pacific region and near the Indian Ocean. So, if there will be any eventualities in the Middle East and Asia, like the threat of conflict in Iran, we are very much in the cross hairs. Why? It’s the presence of the JSOTF-P, st....!
Finally, for us and for all the countries with JSOC in their midst, whether we like it or not, “A commitment to more special forces is a commitment to more imperial intervention, and specialized units operating above the law and beyond the law. It’s more secrecy in government with a constant danger of abuse. It promises more secrecy and manipulation,” from Danny Schechter.
Is the ongoing political turbulence which could be sinister be the quid pro quo, believed by many as part of the exchange deal like the Marcos martial rule? Lets be vigilant!
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
In the Cross Hairs
In the Cross Hairs
By Erick San Juan
The presence of the so called smaller military base in the country may it be real or virtual, the bottom line here is – we are in the cross hairs of Uncle Sam’s frenemies (friends and/or enemies). Any eventualities will put us in grave danger if our leaders will not be wary.
I have written several articles before as a warning of a possible conflict in the region courtesy of a leadership that continues to kowtow to a perceived master. Here we go again, as Washington tries to make ends meet and at the same time wanted to remain a superpower in the Asia-Pacific region, saw the opportunity of increasing its military presence here via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).
Actually, the US doesn’t need a new base because they have been using the strategic parts of our country in our military camps as their portable bases with the blessing from our leaders. If before they had the Subic Bay and the Clark Airfield, now through the VFA, they are everywhere and thanks to 'Balikatan', they can have their exercises everywhere, anywhere too. That is why, we also have a virtual sovereignty because the whole country was turned into Uncle Sam’s military base.
“For the Philippine government to give more than what we have already acceded to the US within the Visiting Forces Agreement would be counter-productive and a step towards infringing the sovereignty of our country,” San Juan Cong. JV Ejercito said.
That is the sad part, when we have given everything as a loyal friend and ally and yet we are treated as beggars and not as such. We never learn.
FMF and PHL Military Modernization
Foreign Military Financing (FMF) is a critical foreign policy tool for promoting U.S. interests around the world by ensuring that coalition partners and friendly foreign governments are equipped and trained to work toward common security goals and share burdens in joint missions. (Source: US State Dept.)
Sounds good.
By increasing demand for U.S. systems, FMF also contributes to a strong U.S. defense industrial base, an important element of U.S. national defense strategy that reduces cost for Department of Defense acquisitions and secures more jobs for American workers. (Ibid)
Stating the facts here, do we have to be grateful to the American government? The rhetoric and doublespeak of Andrew Shapiro, the assistant secretary for political-military affairs, when he said. “We continue to provide foreign military financing... it’s a challenging budget environment in Washington, however the Philippines is a priority.” Correction, we are not in the priority list! The mere fact that Shapiro said in Washington DC that the Philippine wish list to obtain a squadron of F-16 to improve it's defense capability was not discussed.(PhilStar Feb.11,2012)
FMF provides grants for the acquisition of U.S. defense equipment, services and training, which promotes U.S. national security by contributing to regional and global stability, etc….. (Ibid) So it’s a big 'BS' to say that we are buying these so called military (junk) hardwares to modernize and secure our territory. It is very clear it’s for Washington’s benefits more than our country’s. Translation – we are fueling the American economy and giving them jobs while our country is suffering from hunger and depriving the poor from the much needed social services.
Imagine, we bought the “junk” stripped of its important features: sensors, communications and electronics equipment, and close-in weapons system for P450 million pesos. And now as if begging them to return the features, they have to think about it for reconsideration? Bull----!
If PNoy will not use his 'coconut' and continue to impress his master and be a slave forever, please do it alone and don't drag the whole nation. For eventually we will not be in the cross hairs anymore, we will be in the middle of the crossfire!
Please wake up!
Monday, February 6, 2012
Let's Get Our Act Together! by Erick San Juan
Let's Get Our Act Together! by Erick San Juan
Americans are our friends. But, let us all be wary every time Uncle Sam’s top officials and representatives visit the country. . .
In May of last year, I wrote about the “visit” of US Senators Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) and William Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi) to the country for a “possible return of the US naval base in Subic.” Of course, the US embassy here denied this and that the visit was “to see the economic progress in the Subic Freeport area that has been made over the years and to ask how the US can collaborate.”
And, could it be that the said visit of the two elder senators from the US Senate Appropriations committee was to test the water, so to speak of what could be the reaction of the populace?
It has been ten months since that visit (translation - ocular inspection) and there seems to be a follow-up on the matter now that the Pentagon is seeking to cut about $490 billion from projected defense spending over a decade.
"The Obama administration now intends to send about 4,500 US Marines stationed in Japan to Guam and to rotate an additional 4,000 through Australia, Subic Bay and perhaps a smaller base in the Philippines and Hawaii.", according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plan hasn’t been announced. (Source: Manila Standard Today 2/4/2012)
Now that the cat is out of the bag, for some, this could be a new development but for us who is keenly observing the confluence of events, this is not new.
As I have said in my last guesting (last Friday night) over at Global News Network of Destiny Cable at the show of Mentong Laurel, US troops never left and they are using our military camps as portable bases via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). In this way, they are actually saving a lot of dollars because in reality the annual joint military exercises has benefitted them a lot more than our Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
Actually that “smaller base” in the south has been there as the aftermath of Bush’s synthetic war on terror. And now, according to reports, Uncle Sam will send its marines and navy men in Subic Bay on rotation with its other allies.
Floating Base
Speaking of portable base, Washington has plans of deploying of what they call “floating base”, first in the Middle East this summer. According to news release from the New York Times online dated 1/27/2012 - The conversion of the Ponce, which had been scheduled for retirement, would be an interim step to providing the military with its first afloat staging base.
The Pentagon’s new budget proposals, unveiled Thursday, included money to turn a freighter hull into a full-time floating base that could be moved around the world for military operations or humanitarian missions.
Seriously? That familiar line again – for humanitarian missions?
Is there anything new?
Methinks that this upcoming floating base will visit our ports in no time at all once it sails and could possibly bring more headaches in this side of the Pacific than for humanitarian reasons.
This writer has been consistently warning this administration to be cautious in dealing with foreign friends and/or allies because historically we have been shortchanged by leaders who thinks more for what’s in it for them than for what the country will gain for such agreements. I hope, if not the President himself, maybe the people in his loop will guide his decisions when it comes to national security.
Let us not forget the warning of Sen. Miriam Santiago that we might be the “lightning rod” in the region if we will not be careful enough to realize that we are actually attracting more enemies of Uncle Sam in the process.
Let's get our act together!
Americans are our friends. But, let us all be wary every time Uncle Sam’s top officials and representatives visit the country. . .
In May of last year, I wrote about the “visit” of US Senators Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) and William Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi) to the country for a “possible return of the US naval base in Subic.” Of course, the US embassy here denied this and that the visit was “to see the economic progress in the Subic Freeport area that has been made over the years and to ask how the US can collaborate.”
And, could it be that the said visit of the two elder senators from the US Senate Appropriations committee was to test the water, so to speak of what could be the reaction of the populace?
It has been ten months since that visit (translation - ocular inspection) and there seems to be a follow-up on the matter now that the Pentagon is seeking to cut about $490 billion from projected defense spending over a decade.
"The Obama administration now intends to send about 4,500 US Marines stationed in Japan to Guam and to rotate an additional 4,000 through Australia, Subic Bay and perhaps a smaller base in the Philippines and Hawaii.", according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plan hasn’t been announced. (Source: Manila Standard Today 2/4/2012)
Now that the cat is out of the bag, for some, this could be a new development but for us who is keenly observing the confluence of events, this is not new.
As I have said in my last guesting (last Friday night) over at Global News Network of Destiny Cable at the show of Mentong Laurel, US troops never left and they are using our military camps as portable bases via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). In this way, they are actually saving a lot of dollars because in reality the annual joint military exercises has benefitted them a lot more than our Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
Actually that “smaller base” in the south has been there as the aftermath of Bush’s synthetic war on terror. And now, according to reports, Uncle Sam will send its marines and navy men in Subic Bay on rotation with its other allies.
Floating Base
Speaking of portable base, Washington has plans of deploying of what they call “floating base”, first in the Middle East this summer. According to news release from the New York Times online dated 1/27/2012 - The conversion of the Ponce, which had been scheduled for retirement, would be an interim step to providing the military with its first afloat staging base.
The Pentagon’s new budget proposals, unveiled Thursday, included money to turn a freighter hull into a full-time floating base that could be moved around the world for military operations or humanitarian missions.
Seriously? That familiar line again – for humanitarian missions?
Is there anything new?
Methinks that this upcoming floating base will visit our ports in no time at all once it sails and could possibly bring more headaches in this side of the Pacific than for humanitarian reasons.
This writer has been consistently warning this administration to be cautious in dealing with foreign friends and/or allies because historically we have been shortchanged by leaders who thinks more for what’s in it for them than for what the country will gain for such agreements. I hope, if not the President himself, maybe the people in his loop will guide his decisions when it comes to national security.
Let us not forget the warning of Sen. Miriam Santiago that we might be the “lightning rod” in the region if we will not be careful enough to realize that we are actually attracting more enemies of Uncle Sam in the process.
Let's get our act together!
Monday, January 30, 2012
Hail, The "Guns" All Here! By Erick San Juan
Hail, the “guns” all here! With the coming flotilla of US warships to our sea lanes, with advance party docked in Cebu, Mindanao and in Northern Luzon plus the arrival of a Russian destroyer, Udaloy (a large anti-submarine ship) doing a port call in Manila as a friendship visit, what do they know that we don’t know?
We don’t want to be an alarmist, but with the turn of events, we are like a huge magnet attracting negative eventualities that might lead to a regional (possibly global) conflict.
One negative comment came from the editorial of the Global Times, an English-language Chinese newspaper which is a subsidiary of the state-run People’s Daily :
China should impose “sanctions’’ on the Philippines after it offered to allow more US troops on its soil, Chinese state media said Sunday, amid growing tension over disputed waters in the South China Sea.
Due to our country’s openness to Uncle Sam’s promises of military modernization, we tend to project an image of being confrontational rather than using diplomacy in the midst of tension in the disputed area in the South China Sea. But do we have a choice?
MDT and VFA
Even the so-called modernization is but acquiring second-hand (junk) military equipments, what more can we ask? We are captive of the big brother’s whims under an old treaty – the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) which is the mother of the Visiting Forces Agreement(VFA). Just like the ongoing story that US rules out new military bases in the Philippines. What “bases” are we still talking about when in fact they are using our military facilities at less expense including external security given by our camp commanders. Try visiting one of our camps where the US have support groups in it. So the statement that US will be back and renew its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, that’s a big 'BS' because they never left.
Their presence in our country, particularly in the south is an epic example that they never left and was enhanced by the so-called war on terror and has used the pretext of a terror threat from international terror groups like al-Qaida and Jemaah Islamiyah. Like the news that came out recently that a unit of US coast guard just finished training their Filipino counterparts. Translation – there’s now an assurance that they will have a full control of our sea lanes and transshipments. It seems that Uncle Sam’s grip is getting tighter as we speak even though they announced a large budget cut in their defense spending. As I have written before (my past articles can be read at www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) the Philippines is that loyal-ally-turned-witting-tool to a possible war we never wanted.
Our good secretary of National Defense, Voltaire Gazmin said the other day that with or without Spratlys row, the military has to modernize, I agree. But to whose expense? It will be better for our defense establishment to procure armaments through ex-deal instead of us getting loans and incur more debts which we can't pay. We have to be wary of the Businessworld report January 31,2012 that our growth is seen at lower end of the government forecast and SWS report that there's an increase in hunger which should be addressed immediately than provoking a war.
Together with other patriots of this nation, we uphold the call for the abrogation of the VFA and an overhaul of the MDT wherein a new treaty could be drawn that is more balanced and not biased to the stronger nation.
We were shortchanged in the past by our leaders who are more of a collaborator than a negotiator that will bargain for what is due us rather than always bowing to "big brother". We cannot blame other foreign diplomats of taking advantage of situations when dealing with our leaders, the fault is with the people running this government, which oftentimes think “what’s in it for me” rather than what's due us as a sovereign state.
In this turbulent times that we are in, the PNoy administration should rethink its strategy when it comes to geopolitics. We must gather our acts together and come up with a plan that is long term and will solve the country’s domestic problem instead of kowtowing to a perceived master that is dragging the entire nation to a conflict of their own doing. Without US support, who could have think that we have the capabilities to confront China? Wake up PNoy!
We don’t want to be an alarmist, but with the turn of events, we are like a huge magnet attracting negative eventualities that might lead to a regional (possibly global) conflict.
One negative comment came from the editorial of the Global Times, an English-language Chinese newspaper which is a subsidiary of the state-run People’s Daily :
China should impose “sanctions’’ on the Philippines after it offered to allow more US troops on its soil, Chinese state media said Sunday, amid growing tension over disputed waters in the South China Sea.
Due to our country’s openness to Uncle Sam’s promises of military modernization, we tend to project an image of being confrontational rather than using diplomacy in the midst of tension in the disputed area in the South China Sea. But do we have a choice?
MDT and VFA
Even the so-called modernization is but acquiring second-hand (junk) military equipments, what more can we ask? We are captive of the big brother’s whims under an old treaty – the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) which is the mother of the Visiting Forces Agreement(VFA). Just like the ongoing story that US rules out new military bases in the Philippines. What “bases” are we still talking about when in fact they are using our military facilities at less expense including external security given by our camp commanders. Try visiting one of our camps where the US have support groups in it. So the statement that US will be back and renew its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, that’s a big 'BS' because they never left.
Their presence in our country, particularly in the south is an epic example that they never left and was enhanced by the so-called war on terror and has used the pretext of a terror threat from international terror groups like al-Qaida and Jemaah Islamiyah. Like the news that came out recently that a unit of US coast guard just finished training their Filipino counterparts. Translation – there’s now an assurance that they will have a full control of our sea lanes and transshipments. It seems that Uncle Sam’s grip is getting tighter as we speak even though they announced a large budget cut in their defense spending. As I have written before (my past articles can be read at www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) the Philippines is that loyal-ally-turned-witting-tool to a possible war we never wanted.
Our good secretary of National Defense, Voltaire Gazmin said the other day that with or without Spratlys row, the military has to modernize, I agree. But to whose expense? It will be better for our defense establishment to procure armaments through ex-deal instead of us getting loans and incur more debts which we can't pay. We have to be wary of the Businessworld report January 31,2012 that our growth is seen at lower end of the government forecast and SWS report that there's an increase in hunger which should be addressed immediately than provoking a war.
Together with other patriots of this nation, we uphold the call for the abrogation of the VFA and an overhaul of the MDT wherein a new treaty could be drawn that is more balanced and not biased to the stronger nation.
We were shortchanged in the past by our leaders who are more of a collaborator than a negotiator that will bargain for what is due us rather than always bowing to "big brother". We cannot blame other foreign diplomats of taking advantage of situations when dealing with our leaders, the fault is with the people running this government, which oftentimes think “what’s in it for me” rather than what's due us as a sovereign state.
In this turbulent times that we are in, the PNoy administration should rethink its strategy when it comes to geopolitics. We must gather our acts together and come up with a plan that is long term and will solve the country’s domestic problem instead of kowtowing to a perceived master that is dragging the entire nation to a conflict of their own doing. Without US support, who could have think that we have the capabilities to confront China? Wake up PNoy!
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
The Possibility of a Regional Conflict
The Possibility of a Regional Conflict
By Erick San Juan
The nation is too focus on the developments in the impeachment trial of CJ Corona that there are issues being overlooked that is of great significance to our national security.
One of which is the tenth anniversary of Operation ENDURING FREEDOM – Philippines wherein the administration during that time has joined the Bush doctrine in his war on terror and has dragged the whole Filipino race to be on the coalition of the willing against the so-called terrorists. President George Bush Jr. even designated the former president, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as the Asian coordinator in this synthetic war on terror. And the rest is history.
A historical event that has put us up to this moment, under the whim of Uncle Sam, when they want our support to stage a war against a supposed adversary. But not this time, when our military thrust was changed from counter-insurgency to confrontation with China. This is a major change that may eventually drag us to a regional conflict that will leave us (as always) shortchanged in the process.
As what the politicians from the US Congress said, "The United States plans to increase the joint military exercises with the Philippines."
The announcement was made after Arizona Senator John McCain and three other American senators, Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire visited the country.
The move forms part of the US' intention to increase its naval and air assets in the Asia Pacific Region.
According to Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, the joint military exercises will "enhance" Philippines' experience, capabilities, and abilities to protect its territorial integrity. But this does not mean that the US is establishing bases in the country. (Source: Sun Star Manila online 1/18/12)
Although as early as January 5, a press release from the Phil. Information Agency (PIA) said from Palawan that -- The Western Command (WesCom) has confirmed the holding of a bigger joint military exercises under the RP-US Balikatan in April this year. But why was it advanced possibly by mid Februrary or March?
The Balikatan is an annual RP-US bilateral military humanitarian assistance and training exercise under the auspices of the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Visiting Forces Agreement. Again, the government through the Presidential Commission on the VFA (PCVFA) particularly the DFA will hold talks with the US regarding the review of the 1999 VFA. We heard this before, so what else is new?
Such “agreements” only benefits Uncle Sam more than the Filipino people. We are not fully against the Americans helping us but again, they should give what is due us and respect the public’s sentiments when it comes to decisions that will affect the country’s security.
Enter the Water Dragon in “Hot Water”
Uncle Sam’s intervention in the Asia-Pacific region is only intensifying the tension in and around the contested areas in the South China Sea, worst it will use the Balikatan exercises to hold the military drills in Palawan near the disputed areas.
In June of last year, it was reported that China has started its drilling operation in the South China Sea and early this month from Da Nang (AsiaNews) – A Chinese official said that China will soon send a huge ship, the Marine Oil and Gas 708, and a huge oil rig, the Marine 981, to explore for oil and gas in deep waters in 2012, in the South East Sea (or South China Sea as the Chinese call it). However, he did not say in which part of the sea. Built in China, the Marine Oil 708 can explore oil and gas at a depth of 3,000 m and drill at 600 m under the sea. The ship is 105 m long and 23.4 m wide. It is equipped with advanced probes and can withstand wave level 12.
The huge oil rig Marine 981 is also preparing to drill an oil well in deep waters in the South East Sea in 2012. The huge drilling rig can operate at depths of 3,000 m and drill at depths of 10,000 m under sea. Its operational capacity is more than 18 times greater than existing oil rigs.
In the past few decades, the possibility of oil deposits in the South East Sea has unleashed a dispute over sovereignty (of the Spratly and Paracel Islands) involving China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines cannot easily explore oil and gas at such depths.
“We always should come first, when competing with the resources. The resources are not able to re-create as well as not infinite in the disputed maritime area,” said a Chinese Communist official, head of the Centre for Energy and Economy Research of a University.
Claimants to the disputed areas in the SCS should be wary now that the Dragon has actually entered the hot waters of the SCS.
Could a regional conflict not far behind now that Washington has already solidified the circle around China through its allies?
Let's watch closely the possible confluence of events soon to unfold.
May God bless the Philippines!
By Erick San Juan
The nation is too focus on the developments in the impeachment trial of CJ Corona that there are issues being overlooked that is of great significance to our national security.
One of which is the tenth anniversary of Operation ENDURING FREEDOM – Philippines wherein the administration during that time has joined the Bush doctrine in his war on terror and has dragged the whole Filipino race to be on the coalition of the willing against the so-called terrorists. President George Bush Jr. even designated the former president, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as the Asian coordinator in this synthetic war on terror. And the rest is history.
A historical event that has put us up to this moment, under the whim of Uncle Sam, when they want our support to stage a war against a supposed adversary. But not this time, when our military thrust was changed from counter-insurgency to confrontation with China. This is a major change that may eventually drag us to a regional conflict that will leave us (as always) shortchanged in the process.
As what the politicians from the US Congress said, "The United States plans to increase the joint military exercises with the Philippines."
The announcement was made after Arizona Senator John McCain and three other American senators, Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire visited the country.
The move forms part of the US' intention to increase its naval and air assets in the Asia Pacific Region.
According to Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, the joint military exercises will "enhance" Philippines' experience, capabilities, and abilities to protect its territorial integrity. But this does not mean that the US is establishing bases in the country. (Source: Sun Star Manila online 1/18/12)
Although as early as January 5, a press release from the Phil. Information Agency (PIA) said from Palawan that -- The Western Command (WesCom) has confirmed the holding of a bigger joint military exercises under the RP-US Balikatan in April this year. But why was it advanced possibly by mid Februrary or March?
The Balikatan is an annual RP-US bilateral military humanitarian assistance and training exercise under the auspices of the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Visiting Forces Agreement. Again, the government through the Presidential Commission on the VFA (PCVFA) particularly the DFA will hold talks with the US regarding the review of the 1999 VFA. We heard this before, so what else is new?
Such “agreements” only benefits Uncle Sam more than the Filipino people. We are not fully against the Americans helping us but again, they should give what is due us and respect the public’s sentiments when it comes to decisions that will affect the country’s security.
Enter the Water Dragon in “Hot Water”
Uncle Sam’s intervention in the Asia-Pacific region is only intensifying the tension in and around the contested areas in the South China Sea, worst it will use the Balikatan exercises to hold the military drills in Palawan near the disputed areas.
In June of last year, it was reported that China has started its drilling operation in the South China Sea and early this month from Da Nang (AsiaNews) – A Chinese official said that China will soon send a huge ship, the Marine Oil and Gas 708, and a huge oil rig, the Marine 981, to explore for oil and gas in deep waters in 2012, in the South East Sea (or South China Sea as the Chinese call it). However, he did not say in which part of the sea. Built in China, the Marine Oil 708 can explore oil and gas at a depth of 3,000 m and drill at 600 m under the sea. The ship is 105 m long and 23.4 m wide. It is equipped with advanced probes and can withstand wave level 12.
The huge oil rig Marine 981 is also preparing to drill an oil well in deep waters in the South East Sea in 2012. The huge drilling rig can operate at depths of 3,000 m and drill at depths of 10,000 m under sea. Its operational capacity is more than 18 times greater than existing oil rigs.
In the past few decades, the possibility of oil deposits in the South East Sea has unleashed a dispute over sovereignty (of the Spratly and Paracel Islands) involving China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines cannot easily explore oil and gas at such depths.
“We always should come first, when competing with the resources. The resources are not able to re-create as well as not infinite in the disputed maritime area,” said a Chinese Communist official, head of the Centre for Energy and Economy Research of a University.
Claimants to the disputed areas in the SCS should be wary now that the Dragon has actually entered the hot waters of the SCS.
Could a regional conflict not far behind now that Washington has already solidified the circle around China through its allies?
Let's watch closely the possible confluence of events soon to unfold.
May God bless the Philippines!
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Which Side to Take?
Which Side to Take?
By Erick San Juan
Once again the country is in the wait and see mode for the next episode of the impeachment trial of the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice Corona. But this writer’s concern are the events that occurred prior to the scheduled impeachment day.
On the eve of the Feast of the Black Nazarene, a possible terror threat was announced by the President himself that according to Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, the reliability of the intelligence report was so high.
After tracking down the possible terrorists’ hideouts in the metropolis and found nothing, the heightened alert was withdrawn. The fiesta ended peacefully. Although the terror alert stays.
But the fear sowed upon the populace was still there and for many who are taken for a ride still believes the synthetic terror warning.
Then the weekend after that, another rumor was floated that there was a threat upon the president’s security. So, what else is new?
Uncle Sam’s Doublespeak
Last Friday the 13th we can’t help but notice the statement made by the US Ambassador, Harry Thomas (that appeared in the newspaper the following day) that the US is not taking sides on the issue of the South China Sea between the Philippines and China. Whatever happened to the good old big brother protecting his little brother and loyal ally in this part of the region?
The statement made was a sudden turnaround from what used to be the usual stand of Washington when it comes to protecting its allies most especially the Philippines. What is confusing here is the mere fact that Washington is giving its support by granting (even with some second hand and almost junk) military hardware to our AFP and yet they are not taking sides. Obviously, by helping Washington’s allies in the region militarily, is actually “taking the side” of its allies against an adversary.
Unfortunately, Uncle Sam is using rhetoric and doublespeak when former Republican Party presidential candidate John McCain said Washington should also turn to diplomacy to help Asean members sort out their own disputes and “establish a more unified front.”
McCain said the US should help members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations like the Philippines develop and deploy an early warning system and coastal vessels in the disputed waters.
He said, the US should let other countries know “which claims the US accepts, which ones we do not, and what actions we are prepared to support,” especially in defense of the Philippines, a treaty ally. (Source: Philippine Daily Inquirer by Jerry E. Esplanada)
So, which is which? Is Uncle Sam with the SCS claimants’ side or with Beijing?
Financial Armageddon stronger than a Nuclear Holocaust
At this point in time where bullying thy neighbor will not produce any positive results and China bashing only worsens the already tensed situation in the South China Sea, Washington should rethink its strategy. What if Beijing will retaliate in the most unusual way?
Uncle Sam should take the cue from Paul Craig Roberts’ analysis in his article - The Next War on Washington's Agenda, to wit :
Washington is getting all of us in over our heads. Washington has declared the “Asia-Pacific” and the South China Sea to be areas of “America’s national interest.” What sense does this make? It makes the same sense as if China declared the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea to be areas of China’s national interest.
Washington has deployed 2,500 Marines, promising more to come to Australia in order to do what? Protect Australia from China or occupy Australia? Encircle China with 2,500 Marines? It would not mean anything to China if Washington deployed 25,000 Marines in Australia.
When you get right down to it, Washington’s tough talk is nothing but a silly pointless provocation of Washington’s largest creditor. What if Washington’s 'hawks' idiocy causes China to worry that Washington and its UK and European puppets will seize its bank balances and refuse to honor China’s holdings of $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds? Will China pull its balances from the weak US, UK, and European banks? Will China decide to strike first, not with nuclear weapons, but by selling its $1 trillion in Treasury bonds all at once?
It would be cheaper than war.
The Federal Reserve would have to quickly print another $1 trillion dollars with which to buy the bonds, or US interest rates would shoot up. What would China do with the $1 trillion in newly printed paper? In my opinion, China would dump it all at once in the currency market, because the Federal Reserve cannot print euros, UK pounds, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, Russian rubles, and Chinese yuan with which to buy up its newly printed currency.
Which side to take?
A question for our leaders in this exciting times wherein any moment now, an event can trigger a regional conflict or a full blown global war. It may be nuclear or financial global disaster. Our leaders must always take the side of the nation’s interest and safety – no matter what. Let us pray harder that such unfortunate event will not happen.
By Erick San Juan
Once again the country is in the wait and see mode for the next episode of the impeachment trial of the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice Corona. But this writer’s concern are the events that occurred prior to the scheduled impeachment day.
On the eve of the Feast of the Black Nazarene, a possible terror threat was announced by the President himself that according to Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, the reliability of the intelligence report was so high.
After tracking down the possible terrorists’ hideouts in the metropolis and found nothing, the heightened alert was withdrawn. The fiesta ended peacefully. Although the terror alert stays.
But the fear sowed upon the populace was still there and for many who are taken for a ride still believes the synthetic terror warning.
Then the weekend after that, another rumor was floated that there was a threat upon the president’s security. So, what else is new?
Uncle Sam’s Doublespeak
Last Friday the 13th we can’t help but notice the statement made by the US Ambassador, Harry Thomas (that appeared in the newspaper the following day) that the US is not taking sides on the issue of the South China Sea between the Philippines and China. Whatever happened to the good old big brother protecting his little brother and loyal ally in this part of the region?
The statement made was a sudden turnaround from what used to be the usual stand of Washington when it comes to protecting its allies most especially the Philippines. What is confusing here is the mere fact that Washington is giving its support by granting (even with some second hand and almost junk) military hardware to our AFP and yet they are not taking sides. Obviously, by helping Washington’s allies in the region militarily, is actually “taking the side” of its allies against an adversary.
Unfortunately, Uncle Sam is using rhetoric and doublespeak when former Republican Party presidential candidate John McCain said Washington should also turn to diplomacy to help Asean members sort out their own disputes and “establish a more unified front.”
McCain said the US should help members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations like the Philippines develop and deploy an early warning system and coastal vessels in the disputed waters.
He said, the US should let other countries know “which claims the US accepts, which ones we do not, and what actions we are prepared to support,” especially in defense of the Philippines, a treaty ally. (Source: Philippine Daily Inquirer by Jerry E. Esplanada)
So, which is which? Is Uncle Sam with the SCS claimants’ side or with Beijing?
Financial Armageddon stronger than a Nuclear Holocaust
At this point in time where bullying thy neighbor will not produce any positive results and China bashing only worsens the already tensed situation in the South China Sea, Washington should rethink its strategy. What if Beijing will retaliate in the most unusual way?
Uncle Sam should take the cue from Paul Craig Roberts’ analysis in his article - The Next War on Washington's Agenda, to wit :
Washington is getting all of us in over our heads. Washington has declared the “Asia-Pacific” and the South China Sea to be areas of “America’s national interest.” What sense does this make? It makes the same sense as if China declared the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea to be areas of China’s national interest.
Washington has deployed 2,500 Marines, promising more to come to Australia in order to do what? Protect Australia from China or occupy Australia? Encircle China with 2,500 Marines? It would not mean anything to China if Washington deployed 25,000 Marines in Australia.
When you get right down to it, Washington’s tough talk is nothing but a silly pointless provocation of Washington’s largest creditor. What if Washington’s 'hawks' idiocy causes China to worry that Washington and its UK and European puppets will seize its bank balances and refuse to honor China’s holdings of $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds? Will China pull its balances from the weak US, UK, and European banks? Will China decide to strike first, not with nuclear weapons, but by selling its $1 trillion in Treasury bonds all at once?
It would be cheaper than war.
The Federal Reserve would have to quickly print another $1 trillion dollars with which to buy the bonds, or US interest rates would shoot up. What would China do with the $1 trillion in newly printed paper? In my opinion, China would dump it all at once in the currency market, because the Federal Reserve cannot print euros, UK pounds, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, Russian rubles, and Chinese yuan with which to buy up its newly printed currency.
Which side to take?
A question for our leaders in this exciting times wherein any moment now, an event can trigger a regional conflict or a full blown global war. It may be nuclear or financial global disaster. Our leaders must always take the side of the nation’s interest and safety – no matter what. Let us pray harder that such unfortunate event will not happen.
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