Crosshair by Erick San Juan

Crosshair by Erick San Juan


Our 1987 Constitution mandates: “The State shall protect the nation’s marine wealth in its xxx exclusive economic zone, and reserve its use and enjoyment exclusively to Filipino citizens.”  This is the mandate of the Constitution that we have all solemnly sworn to uphold.

To fulfill the State’s obligation to protect the nation’s marine wealth in its exclusive economic zone, the Philippines has filed an arbitration case against China in accordance with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).   At stake in the arbitration before an UNCLOS Annex VII tribunal is whether the Philippines will keep or lose 80% of its exclusive economic zone and 100% of its extended continental shelf in the West Philippines Sea.

The maritime dispute between the Philippines and China boils down to whether there are overlapping EEZs between the Philippines and China in the West Philippine Sea. Are the waters enclosed by China’s 9-dashed lines part of the EEZ of China such that China’s EEZ overlaps with the EEZ of the Philippines?   China also claims that the islands in the Spratlys like Itu Aba generate their own EEZs which overlap with the Philippines’ EEZ in Palawan.

China argues, through its scholars and officials, that the arbitral tribunal has no jurisdiction over the Philippines’ claim for two reasons: First, the dispute involves maritime boundary delimitation arising from overlapping EEZs of the Philippines and China, a dispute that China has opted out of compulsory arbitration.  Second, China’s 9-dashed line claim is a historical right that predates UNCLOS and cannot be negated by UNCLOS. On these grounds, China has refused to participate in the arbitral proceedings.

 The Philippines’ response is that the waters enclosed within China’s 9-dashed lines do not constitute an EEZ because the 9-dashed lines are not drawn from baselines along the coast of continental land or habitable islands. Under UNCLOS, EEZs can only be drawn from baselines along the coast of continental land or an island capable of human habitation or economic life of its own. China’s 9-dashed lines do not comply with the basic requirement of UNCLOS for drawing EEZs. (Speech delivered by Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio T. Carpio before the Philippine Women’s Judges Association, 6 March 2014)

The ongoing arbitration at the Arbitral Tribunal, formed under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), should be treated by our government as part of a bigger picture on how to solve such crisis by defining a strong foreign policy that will protect our sovereignty.

Sadly, Richard Javad Heydarian (assistant professor in political science at De La Salle University, and a former policy adviser at the Philippine House of Representatives (2009-2015) has to remind us in his article of how poorly we are treating a major issue like the South China Sea. He writes – “After more than 15 years, the Philippines has finally decided to repair its ragtag outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal, located about 100 nautical miles away from the Philippines’ westernmost province of Palawan. The Sierra Madre ship – a 100-meter-long tank landing vessel, operated by the U.S. Navy back in the Second World War – has served as a tenuous expression of Manila’s sovereignty claim over the contested feature in the South China Sea.

For long, it has also served as an embarrassing reminder of how little the Philippines has invested in concretely defending its claims in a heavily-contested area. To paraphrase a Western journalist who visited the site in recent years, "the Philippine outpost from afar is an abominable site amid a beautiful maritime wilderness; surrounded by reefs and a vast blue ocean, Sierra Madre looks even more awful up close."

Since 1999, the rusty, grounded vessel has hosted – on a rotational basis – a handful of marooned and resilient troops, who have repeatedly resisted siege and other forms of intimidation tactics deployed by the far better equipped Chinese coast guard forces, which are even better armed than the Philippine Navy.

As the former Philippine National Security Adviser Roilo Golez told me, the Philippines’ South China Sea strategic planning “was dominated by internal defense officers who looked inward and ignored the China threat in spite of repeated warning.” No wonder, then, he said, that “nothing was achieved by way of minimum deterrence during the 1990s and the 2000s.” He lamented how military modernization funds were going to “minor items” that “were useless” for defending the country’s claims in the South China Sea.”

I agree with the former NSA Roilo Golez, if we have to modernize our armed forces, we should not settle for less especially those refurbished war materiel from the US. And most of all, it is not only a matter of military hardware. We must depend on our inner strength as a nation and not depend our security from outside forces.

The mere fact that we presented our case before an international tribunal, it is but logical to show to the world that we don’t need foreign military troops and materiel to use our military bases. Having two Visiting Forces Agreements – one with the US and another with Australia, and coming soon with Japan, will not do us any good.

Once and for all, we have to show our strength by not merely kowtowing to foreign ‘masters’ that will only shortchanged us and put us at the crosshairs of their enemies.

As I have written in our previous article (@ericksanjuan.blogspot.com), let us not agitate China because the mere presence of foreign troops is an agitation enough and could be a pretext that will justify China’s retaliation against us. The worst, we are not even prepared for it or have any tangible fall back just in case all hell break loose. 

God forbid!

China: Deng's Self Fulfilling Prophecy by Erick San Juan

China: Deng's Self Fulfilling Prophecy by Erick San Juan

“If one day China should change her color and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.” – Deng Xiaoping speech at the United Nations, April 10, 1974

After four decades the words of Deng Xiaoping is now almost a reality. But it seems small fries like the Philippines and US allies in Asia are the perceived easy targets. We all have to be vigilant and not to commit the same mistake just like what happened here before the 2nd world war where the Japanese came, disguised as lowly merchants, poor Japanese nationals looking for work like our OFW's, drivers, gardeners etc. When the war broke out, these Japanese re-grouped and were found out too late that most of them were officials and soldiers of the Japanese Imperial Army and their local counterpart was the "LUPONG TAGAPAG-PAGANAP".

See the pattern of history of the creeping invasion of nations? What's worrying many pundits is the possible repeat of history with a creepy scenario. Then the poor Chinese migrants from China mostly came from Amoy have reinvented themselves from being street vendors, small time junk buyers, retailers of junk foods, etc., few were members of Red China's underworld - the TRIAD who metamorphosed through sheer hard work into what we now call the TAIPAN's. We Filipinos didn't mind that. But the latest strategic assessment is really quite scary. Due to national security issue, I cannot elaborate at the moment. My group of patriots just don't want a repeat of what happened in Indonesia and Malaysia with the purging of Chinese there and the attack of the angry Vietnamese against the chinese in Vietnam due to the bullying of China.

The installation of China's military structures in the South China Sea, the 9-dash line, the ADIZ plus President Xi Jin Ping's ‘China dream’ which is now becoming a nightmare due to the regrouping of his political enemies inside China including former loyal allies of Xi whom he jailed due to suspicion of corruption plus the leak of Xi and his family's own corruption exposed by Bloomberg made the plot thickens.

The world was alerted of a possible collapse from within despite the "praise releases" of a good economy in China. Even Google removed the invented Chinese names of shoals from the internet map due to global protests. The floating scenario emanating from Beijing experts is that China is preparing for war "to fight an outside enemy to unite China".

I'm calling the attention of our compatriots especially the progressive lefts who have been so quiet on the issue of China's bullying. I hope that their sudden noise against China is NOT part of the ploy as some analysts thought.

PLEASE DON'T AGITATE CHINA, a possible justification of attack, another REVERSE ARROW plan of invasion. In spite of China's history of non-aggression, a former Beijing resident friend of mine reminded me that the situation in the past is different this time. China has a military inspired president and he could be worse than Mao Tse Tung he added.

I have written a lot on how China in the past infiltrated even our intelligence officers in the military like then Gen. Pedro de la Pena, our big business and anti-communist leaders. Thanks to the American 'communist' William Pomeroy who worked for the US clandestine operations, they were all exposed and most of them jailed.(See my latest book DOSSIERS and blog about it at  ericksanjuan.blogspot.com)

Let us call the attention of our local Chinese here. Most of them could have averted the saber rattling between the Philippines and China if they were told by the government. We now want to hear your voices. As the Lord God said- "Are you with us or against us?

May God bless the Philippines!

Present Crash: Double Blast from the Past

Present Crash: Double Blast from the Past
By Erick San Juan


While all Western eyes remain firmly focused on Greece, a potentially much more significant financial crisis is developing on the other side of the world. In some quarters, it’s already being called China’s 1929 – the year of the most infamous stock market crash in history and the start of the economic catastrophe of the Great Depression. (Source: Jeremy Warner, 7/9/2015)

That’s not all, a double blast from the past, the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

From the article of Pam Martens and Russ Martens (July 8) – “It’s starting to feel like we never actually emerged from the 2008 crisis: the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve simply threw $13 trillion at the crisis and walked away, hoping that an endless zero-interest-rate-policy (Zirp) would patch over the cracks in the global financial system. What we seem to have now is an endless series of rolling crises instead of one big global crisis. The rolling crises, from Puerto Rico to Greece to China’s stock market, all have one thing in common – the unravelling of too much debt. That could rapidly turn into a full-fledged global crisis if policymakers misdiagnose what’s happening, treating the problems as isolated crises instead of a interconnected debt hangover from the go-go years.

The plunging price action in industrial commodities this week strongly suggests that debt was not sufficiently purged in the 2008-2009 economic meltdown and debt liquidation is back with a vengeance.

The China stock market, the second largest in the world after the U.S., locked down 72 percent of its stocks on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg, with “at least 1,331 companies halted on mainland exchanges and another 747 falling by the 10 percent daily limit.” This has effectively frozen $2.6 trillion of stock from trading, according to Bloomberg.

The Shanghai Composite, which clearly would have fallen by a much greater amount if all stocks had been trading, fell 5.9 percent at the close, bringing its loss to 32 percent from its peak set less than a month ago. The Shenzhen Composite Index, consisting of smaller companies and tech stocks, has plunged 40 percent from its peak this year.”

People repeating history, actually the worst part of it. Remember how the Japanese became jetsetters and even bought US golf courses and the Empire State Building, then the stock market plunged and so many Japanese big business did 'Harakiri'. Then the Soviets became the new jetsetters in the mid 90’s because of Gorbachev’s Glastnost and Perestroika, until the November 1998 chopping of the Berlin Wall which I witnessed with amazement, when almost the whole Eastern establishment collapsed.
Now we can see the possible implosion in China due to the open-secret in-fighting between the economic and political leaders versus the military hardliners headed by Xi Jinping.

Japanese acquisitions of American assets have been a frequent occurrence. Thirty years ago, they were the cause for anxiety. Now, they should just be a reminder that China probably won't take over the U.S. either, no matter what their billionaires manage to buy.

And we thought that China is too big to fail. I thought that it’s only in the Philippines that we are bombarded with good news coming from the government. With the collapse of Greece, suddenly the truth that I know for so many years is now a reality with China losing big in the international market.

Propaganda after propaganda that the spinmasters are desperately doing to cover up the real state of China’s economy suddenly catch up with them with a big bang.

Lesson to our own financial and economic ‘experts’, what goes around comes around, thrash in, thrash out.

US-China et tu Brutus by Erick San Juan

US-China et tu Brutus by Erick San Juan

Top secret military documents from World War II have revealed the depth and strength of the alliance between China and the United States against Imperial Japan, as well as joint efforts to rescue downed US pilots.

The cache of intelligence documents, detailing a number of daring missions, is on display at Jianchuan Museum in Anren, Sichuan province.

More than 1,100 documents and other artifacts were donated by the family of Major Richard Hill (1908-92), a US military intelligence officer who coordinated the rescue of 46 US pilots shot down over occupied China.

Fan Jianchuan, who owns the museum, said he is passionate about bringing the largely forgotten story of US-China collaboration to life for a new generation, and that the path to future peace and friendship lies in these wartime ties.

"I hope Chinese will be grateful to the US after they visit the museum, and Americans will say 'thank you' to the Chinese for helping their pilots," he said.

The documents are housed in a wing of the museum called Flying Tigers Hall, named in honor of the US volunteer force that in 1941 provided China's only air defense against Japan. (Source: China Daily by Huang Zhiling)

Those were the days when friends before are now enemies, and the big question is - If the United States and China are supposed to be such “great friends”, why are both sides acting as if war is in our future?  Thanks to events in the South China Sea and the blatant theft of the personal information of millions of U.S. government workers, tensions between the United States and China are the highest that they have been in decades. (Source: Michael Snyder, 12 Signs That the United States And China Are Moving Toward War, June 21, 2015)

The growing tension in the SCS between China and among the claimants plus the US will lead to a shooting war just like what happened in the past when there was a build up of tensions between alliances until they reached that breaking point and global war broke out.

Precisely the situation now, why the US is taking sides with its allies in order to contain China as it gradually rises as the new military superpower in this part of the world. And this said territorial dispute is a good copy for Uncle Sam to “help” its allies like the Philippines who in turn will follow the will of the perceived master even the whole archipelago will be put in the crosshairs of the dragon as cannon fodder.

A different chessboard with different players as what will the likes of Weinberger and McKinder will use in describing the world in the brink of a war. But this time it would be very different as technology advances in the field of military including the use of cyber space to attack the enemy silently.

Casualties will be great with the use of thermonuclear and weapons that can wipe out large area of any given target with precision and speed in a matter of just clicking a button.

The parade of modern day military hardware (and some hidden military software) through the internet via state-owned mouthpieces are deliberately exposed as propaganda in order to create an atmosphere that both camps are prepared to any eventuality.

Such war propaganda were used since the First World War and the scenario that they built in their war rooms were almost exact. In modern times they are called false flag operations and creating pretext to justify desired events.

But like what Fan Jianchuan said, the owner of the museum, his museum is there to preserve the memory of the wartime friendship between China and the US, to "remind both countries to treasure it and work together to deal with factors that may affect world peace today".

Despite the playing of flowery words, treachery will always be there. As the saying goes-"There's no permanent friendship, only common interest.'" 

TPP: What's In It for Us? By Erick San Juan

TPP: What's In It for Us? By Erick San Juan

The Philippines is definitely joining the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) bloc once presented the opportunity, Trade Secretary Gregory L. Domingo announced at an investment forum.

"The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – a global corporate noose around U.S. local, state, and national sovereignty – narrowly passed a major procedural hurdle in the Congress by gaining “fast track” status. This term “fast track” is a euphemism for your members of Congress – senators and representatives – handcuffing themselves, so as to prevent any amendments or adequate debate before the final vote on the Trans-Pacific Partnership – another euphemism that is used to avoid the word “treaty,” which would require ratification by two-thirds of the Senate."

"Make no mistake. If this was only a trade treaty – reducing tariffs, quotas, and the like – it would not be so controversial. Yet, the corporate-indentured politicians keep calling this gigantic treaty with thirty chapters, of which only five relate to traditional trade issues, a trade agreement instead of a treaty. The other twenty-four chapters, if passed as they are, will have serious impacts on your livelihoods as workers and consumers, as well as your air, water, food, and medicines." (King Obama, His Royal Court, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) by Ralph Nader, 6/26/2015)

The United States is economically ailing, and the TPP – Wall Street’s wet dream and Washington’s answer to its own dwindling economic performance – is designed to allow US big business a greater stake in the emerging Pacific region by imposing an exploitative economic model on signatory nations that exempt multinationals and private investors from any form of public accountability. The TPP’s origins go back to the second Bush administration, and it still remains in the negotiating phases under Obama’s second administration. The overwhelming lack of transparency surrounding the talks lends credence to what is known already – that the contents of this trade agreement serve the interests of those on the top of the economic food chain while the rest of us stagnate on the menu. (Source: Nile Bowie)

Sections of the TPP published by Wikileaks have revealed the treaty’s vast influence over multiple areas including individual rights, internet freedom and even the rule of law itself. Unelected corporate boards and the President can now wield unprecedented control over almost every aspect of human activity.

“If you read, write, publish, think, listen, dance, sing or invent; if you farm or consume food; if you’re ill now or might one day be ill, the TPP has you in its crosshairs,” Wikileaks’ Julian Assange wrote.

Secret TPP chapters regarding immigration also grant President Obama an even greater ability to erode the country’s Southern border.

The TPP, which covers 12 countries and more than 40% of the world’s economy, will place North America under the same global government structure as the European Union, where laws are increasingly crafted outside of public influence. (Source: http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines-2015/tpp-passes-obama-now-a-dictator)

The present administration should be very careful before committing our country (again) to another ‘agreement/partnership’ with Uncle Sam given the reality that American patriots themselves are against the TPP. I myself will go for it if the deal is fair and square. And why the sudden rush to join the said partnership? Are we being pressured to join?

Remember VFA (Visiting Forces Agreement) and EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement)? The play of words here – instead of using the word treaty, they use ‘agreement’ in order to avoid the scrutiny of our Congress, both Senate and House of Representatives in ratifying the said document. Although VFA did passed the Congress but the US counterpart treated it as an executive agreement.

Same is true with this TPP, posed as a partnership and not as a treaty, if ever our country will enter into such agreement, it should be cleared as to what kind of ‘partnership’ this administration is dragging the whole country into. We had our share of stupid legislators and politicians’ (pulpolitiko) decisions of putting the Filipinos in a very dangerous situation by turning the whole archipelago into a giant magnet attracting Uncle Sam’s enemies via the VFA and EDCA. We should have learned our lessons by now.

And the so many attempts of changing the so-called economic provisions in our Constitution by another bunch of pulpolitiko, don’t be too greedy because this nation’s history will never forgive thick-faced and greedy ‘public servants’.
 

Who Do We Trust? By Erick San Juan

Who Do We Trust? By Erick San Juan

"In the course of our country’s history when the timing of some major events is suspected for something else… there really is something else."

One recent example was the article posted at http://www.wantchinatimes.com/, Did Beijing concede to US by calling off South China Sea land reclamation? (June 20), “China's foreign ministry suddenly announced this week that it is suspending land reclamation efforts on islands and reefs in the disputed South China Sea."

The official media line on the suspension is that it is because the projects are "complete," however other media outlets have framed the decision as a compromise reached between Beijing and Washington, according to Duowei News, a media outlet run by overseas Chinese.

"China and the United States have insisted on their respective positions in the dispute over the South China Sea, from the Chinese military asking US jets conducting patrol duties in the area to leave, to China's issuing of a defense white paper to show its concern over its maritime interests and the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore where representatives from the two countries defended their respective positions.”

The meeting of high-ranking officials from China and the United States that is taking place June 22 and 23 in Washington DC for the seventh China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) and the sixth China-US High-Level Consultation on People-to-People Exchange (CPE), discussing issues ranging from security to the economy and people-to-people exchanges. Prior to President Xi Jinping of China’s plan to visit the US in September, China and the US are set to engage in more economic cooperation.

So there could be no compromise on the territorial disputes unless coming major events/meetings are actually the real reason for such decision.

Another major event – the 2015 Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) exercise series that kicked off (June 22) in an opening ceremony in Puerto Princesa that will last until June 26.

CARAT Philippines will take place on the ground in Puerto Princesa and in the waters and airspace of the Sulu Sea. The exercise will focus on combined operations at sea, mobile dive and salvage training, coastal and river operations, plus maritime patrol and reconnaissance. It will feature the inaugural participation of littoral combat ship USS Fort Worth (LCS 3) along with rescue and salvage ship USNS Safeguard (T-ARS-50) and forward-deployed P-3 Orion aircraft.

"CARAT is the US premier naval engagement in South and Southeast Asia. The bilateral and multilateral exercises provide a regional venue to develop strong maritime partnerships that contribute to the greater peace and stability of the region participated in by Members of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps along with the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) counterpart."


Following CARAT Philippines, additional bilateral phases of CARAT will occur from July through November 2015 with Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Timor-Leste.

Now that the Japanese navy also joined in a separate naval exercises with our country, generally these events are crucial to the “activities” that China has been doing in the South China Sea (SCS).

We have to be wary because we really don’t know who is our ally and our enemy. Pundits are suspicious that the saber rattling among party of interest could lead to something else.

Who do we trust?

Ph-Japan VFA by Erick San Juan

Ph-Japan VFA by Erick San Juan


After the recently concluded state visit to Japan by President Benigno Aquino III, reports of a possible VFA (Visiting Forces Agreement) with Japan is brewing on the basis of stronger security relationship of the two countries.

As reported at the manilastandardtoday.com - There was no mention of the VFA in the joint communiqué Aquino and Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe released after their bilateral talks, but Aquino said the matter was discussed.

“It was discussed during our summit meeting with the Prime Minister that the relevant entities will start discussions, leading up to a Visiting Forces Agreement,” he said. “The Visiting Forces Agreement will have to be passed and approved by our Senate and we will be starting discussions.”

“We welcome this development. We have only two strategic partners, the US and Japan; and again, as I have stated previously, it does not behoove a good partnership or relationship if you are not able to work at the inoperability with the other,” Aquino added.

Aquino also noted that a VFA with Japan will have to be finalized before a more advanced version, like the EDCA, is considered.

“We have a Visiting Forces Agreement with America and with Australia, but we don’t have the same with Japan. That has first to be worked out before we can talk about training exercises in the Philippines, especially for [Japan’s] Self-Defense Forces,” he said.

Well, at least the mention of “the VFA (with Japan) will have to be passed and approved by our Senate” is a welcome idea unlike the EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement) with the US, which is still pending at the Supreme Court, the Senate has been demanding that the said treaty should have the approval of the Senators.

Like Japan, we also have territorial dispute with China which is why PNoy had to ink a treaty with Japan on security issues in the region.

Aquino’s four day visit to Tokyo clearly gave the strategic partnership a further boost. Both sides issued a joint declaration praising their ‘strengthened strategic partnership’ and issued an action plan to further it still. Advances on the security side of the relationship were focused on maritime security, which is no surprise considering common concerns about Chinese assertiveness at sea. Japan pledged to enhance the capacity of the Philippine Coast Guard, and the signing of a contract during Aquino’s visit between the Philippine government and the Japan Marine United Corporation for the acquisition of patrol vessels was evidence of progress in this regard. I hope that the 'other matters' discussed with Emperor Akihito was also fruitful.

More broadly, both countries also vowed to strengthen their security cooperation by concluding an agreement on the transfer of defense equipment and technology and expanding bilateral and multilateral trainings and exercises. The agreement on defense equipment is particularly notable since sources have suggested that P-3C patrol aircraft and other radar-related equipment could feature among potential export items in the future. This is also the second such pact that Tokyo has signed with a Southeast Asian state following one with Malaysia last month. (by Prashanth Parameswaran, June 05, 2015)

The mere fact that PNoy had an audience with the top officials in Japan, at the least he could have mentioned the issue on ‘comfort women’ where our country’s women together with South Korea and China, were victims during the Second World War.

Even the US with South Korea and China are awaiting the speech of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in August on the 70th Anniversary on the end of World War II.

Former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, who authored Japan's landmark 1995 apology on the 50th anniversary of the end of the war, said Abe should "honestly spell out" the country's wartime actions to address growing international concern that he may revise history.

Yohei Kono, who as chief Cabinet secretary in 1993 apologized to victims of Japan's wartime military sexual exploitation, said he wondered whether a new statement by Abe is even necessary. He said a statement to mark the 70th anniversary, if issued, should not backpedal from any of the apologies that Abe promised to inherit from nearly a dozen past leaders.

"The international community is watching what (Abe) is really thinking," Murayama told reporters during a rare joint appearance with Kono at the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo.

"It is important to clear any doubts that he has raised overseas," Murayama said.

The historic statements by both men were highly regarded internationally as signs Japan had come to terms with its wartime past and they improved relations with its Asian neighbors. However, both statements have become unpopular among Japanese conservatives who say Japan should stop focusing on negative history to restore national pride.

Kono warned that any attempt to whitewash historical facts "hurts the Japanese people's reputation." (Source: Associated Press by Mari Yamaguchi, June 9, 2015)

If Japan is truly for making stronger ties with its neighbours, its leaders should begin by making amends of the ghosts of the past.