Bullying who? By Erick San Juan

Bullying who? By Erick San Juan


In recent events in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) where the US has shown its military power both air and sea created another tensed situation, which could lead not only to a regional conflict but a global war.

Situations like this could be avoided, as what Henry Kissinger, America’s prominent former secretary of state, had said, that the U.S. and China should look to the example of Deng Xiaoping when it comes to defusing China’s disputes with other claimants in the South China Sea.

“Deng Xiaoping dealt with some of his problems by saying not every problem needs to be solved in the existing generation,” Kissinger said in Singapore, where he attended Lee Kuan Yew’s funeral. “Let’s perhaps wait for another generation but let’s not make it worse.”
Applied to the South China Sea situation, that might mean shelving knotty issues surrounding territorial and maritime claims for now and perhaps even focusing on joint development.
 Kissinger is hardly the first person to suggest this. Just last month, Kurt Campbell, who was America’s top diplomat in the Asia-Pacific under the Obama administration until 2013, suggested at a keynote address to the Jamestown Foundation’s Fifth Annual Defense and Security Conference that the best we could do in the current environment is “export these problems into the future” and “establish some degree of understanding that the status quo or moderate adjustment of the status quo is in the best interest of all.”

However, while such an approach might be ideal in theory, Campbell himself admitted that in practice, no one is embracing this idea in the South China Sea.

“I think it would be fair to say not only have we been unsuccessful in basically persuading Chinese friends that this is the right approach in the South China Sea and elsewhere; we haven’t had very much success with other countries in that context as well,” he said. (Source: Prashanth Parameswaran, 4-7-15)

Time is of the essence as China is ‘hurriedly’ building structures in the reclaimed areas in the SCS and putting the territorial disputes in the back burner will give much time for China’s growth in the area. Which is why China wants bilateral talks in order to gain leverage in all aspects being the region’s superpower compared to the smaller claimant-countries.

Why are we being bullied by China? No thanks to the Mt Pinatubo explosion that discreetly pressured the US government to vacate Clark air base and Subic naval base and not the so called 'Magnificent 12'  anti- bases senators. The worst, the abrupt withdrawal led to a power vacuum not allowing our nation to develop a security plan. Our military camp was even privatized in the guise of modernizing our armed forces and make it self-reliant in vain.

In the recent development in the contested areas in the SCS, some pundits assessed US as the new bully, using sophisticated air and sea assets near China’s reclamation projects. But if one will look at it in another angle, there could be another motive by this aggressive move by the US military in the region, and this might involve the Philippines.

Talks about revisiting the Mutual Defense Treaty together with the Visiting Forces Agreement and the recent one – Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement could be the reason why suddenly the US is in the picture using the South China Sea territorial issues. The 'big brother' is sending the message that we need them very badly especially in the midst of the Bangsamoro Basic Law hearing.

We have to be wary and very observant  as to the real motives of this new ‘play’. Is the US – China tension for real, or is it all for a show? We have been used as a cannon fodder and was put in the crosshairs from Uncle Sam’s foes in the past. If we will allow it again this time, we are really looking for trouble.

Again, no thanks to our corrupt leadership.

China's Strat by Erick San Juan

China's Strat by Erick San Juan

While China was prepared to talk, it would not back down on the construction (in the South China Sea) that, it is something that falls fully within the scope of China's sovereignty. The determination of the Chinese side to safeguard their own sovereignty and territorial integrity is as firm as a rock, and it is unshakable.", Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.

The above-mentioned statement was the response of Minister Wang when US Secretary of State John Kerry, in his two-day visit to Beijing, "urged China... to take actions that will join with everybody in helping to reduce tensions and increase the prospect of a diplomatic solution" in the disputed areas in the South China Sea.

What else is new? There had been talks between US diplomats and Chinese officials in the past and there seemed to be no stopping the People’s Liberation Army and Navy in its militarization of the SCS. Is the US being too soft on China and will just have to tolerate its actions despite the growing protests of the other SCS claimants?

I really have to rethink what Ferdie Pasion said in his text message that the "US wants the Philippines to be ‘China’s Ukraine’ to ‘sap the resources’ of China and stop the rapid rise of China and ASEAN’s economies. The only problem is that - it is us Pinoys who will have to do the ‘dying’ on the altar of this evil experiment of the American military industrial complex. No to war! No to massive depopulation through American – instigated war between China and the Philippines! China is willing to have bilateral talks with the Philippines but what the US want is a multilateral dialogue among the claimants and China which is not what China wants ever since." And in Ferdie’s viewpoint, China wants peace but the US wants war to erupt between China and the Philippines because in the process the American private corporations will earn while the Filipinos will die in a war that we can never win.

This is the sad reality and I have been telling this through my radio broadcasts that aside from being short changed we will always play as their cannon fodder.

The so-called talk between Kerry and Xi are all for a show because there seems to be an understanding between the two superpowers on how they will both benefit from this part of the region by using us and all our country’s riches.

And from the words of Dr. Sukjoon Yoon (a retired Captain of the Republic of Korea Navy) in his article ‘Why is China Militarizing the South China Sea?’ - Sadly, therefore, we should see the militarization of the South China Sea as a misguided statement of China’s political choices, rather than an expression of military flexibility. For more than 10 years now, the PLAN’s naval modernization has focused on the assertive manifestation of solid naval power. Of course, this has disturbed China’s neighbors, the small and weak ASEAN countries, as well as sending the wrong signals to Japan and the United States: this is not the way to become a true maritime power.
Throughout history, most maritime powers striving for “command” of their seas to protect their national commerce and other interests have faced severe financial and military resources deficits, so that absolute sea control has remained a matter of political imagination.

True, naval powers respect their neighbors and cooperate with them; maritime peace and prosperity is best maintained by recognizing maritime domains protected by properly codified international law: purely military tools are insufficient.

The South China Sea disputes are unnecessarily complicating China’s own progress: surely China’s “peaceful rise” should contribute to the common destiny of East Asia. On a more positive note, the PLAN is starting to develop a conceptual understanding of modern naval warfare and to incorporate this into its strategic approach. This militarization of the South China Sea is a fruitless distraction: China will only become a true maritime power by making further adjustments to outdated mindsets, both within the PLAN and also in the wider political leadership.”

There's even a 'joke' that during the meeting of China's president Xi Jin Ping with US State Department Secretary John Kerry, Sec. Kerry secretly whispered to Pres. Xi to stop invading the Pacific Ocean, the perceived US territory and just mind China's business in it's 9 dash line control of South China Sea.

 We have to be wary and united in order to survive a geopolitical strategy being played against us.
 

Human Error by Erick San Juan

Human Error by Erick San Juan

"Human error is always the first explanation you should consider for a laboratory accident. The easiest way to transfer something from one place where it's supposed to be, to another where it isn't supposed to be is by a worker moving from one place to the other." Richard Ebright, the Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert.

Sloppy biosafety practices can result in pathogens being tracked out of labs on shoes, coats, gloves, hands or other materials that weren't properly sterilized before being removed, he said.

Federal officials did not provide any information on how they suspect the bacteria got out.

The use of the bacterium, Burkholderia pseudomallei, is highly regulated in research because it's deemed to pose a significant health threat, can kill up to 50% of those sickened, and is classified as a potential bioterror agent by the Federal Select Agent Program. Tulane scientists had been doing research to develop a vaccine for the bacterium, which is primarily found in soil and water in Southeast Asia and northern Australia, and causes a disease called Melioidosis that can manifest with a wide range of symptoms from mild to severe.

Burkholderia pseudomallei can cause a potentially serious disease in people and animals called melioidosis, that has a wide range of non-specific symptoms, such as fever, headache, loss of appetite, muscle and joint pain, and infections are often mistaken for other diseases such as pneumonia or tuberculosis. The time between exposure to the bacteria and the development of symptoms can range from one day to many years, according to the CDC, though most human infections do not cause symptoms.

Several countries have studied using the bacteria as a bioweapon because strains can be obtained from the environment and engineered to be resistant to multiple antibiotics, according to the UPMC Center for Health Security, an independent biosecurity think tank. (Alison Young, USA TODAY, 3/5/2015)

Accident in the laboratory of the highest level of protection in Tulane National Primate Center in Louisiana, USA resulted in the leak of a highly deadly bacteria that is common in Asia. After it hits an organism, for example a human, he may suffer from an acute infectious disease, death occurs within 2 to 4 days. One of the researchers who studied the circumstances of the incident was infected by the virus. Also the virus killed several monkeys, whose bodies were found far beyond the laboratory. The population of the surrounding areas is at risk of a possible contamination. Meanwhile the US authorities are trying to hide from the public and the international community.

The true goal of the US in the use of biological laboratories in the region is the collection and systematization of data on biological safety of the ‘studied’ countries. The accumulated information is used to create new types of viruses and bacteria which are components of biological weapons. And the concerned US scientist does not intend to share the results of the research with the national authorities.

With high probability it can be argued that due to the presence of the laboratory in the territory of Cambodia, Cambodian authorities believe that Americans mapped the landscape of microbiological infections and immunological status of Asia as a whole. Apparently for the same purpose, the US reportedly needs laboratories in the Philippines. It may increase the risk of uncontrolled leakage of various hazardous biomaterials and provoke a biological catastrophe.

Aware of the risks of uncontrolled leakage of dangerous biological materials, the US consciously withdrew their laboratories outside its territory, as in the case of any incidents in other countries it will be virtually impossible to prove the fact that the specialists and scientists from the US had been involved in it.

The mere fact that it's an open secret that the US military business and pharmaceutical corporations have been involved and actually engaged in so many research centers using live bacteria and creating strains that are being used as bioweapon, sloppiness in handling such high risk pathogens is not an excuse. Or is it a deliberate leak?  Just asking.



 

Sino-American Relationship by Erick San Juan

The current Sino-American relationship if we are going to base it from what is happening in geopolitics, especially in the Pacific region, there are some flashpoints that can be considered as too complicated and should be handled with caution.

As what Gareth Evans wrote in his article, A new blueprint for US-China relations -    “What makes the Sino-American relationship dangerous is that powerful forces in both countries seem intent on a collision course. On the Chinese side, under Xi Jinping’s assertive leadership, the government is no longer heeding Deng Xiaoping’s injunction that the country should “hide its strength, bide its time, and never take the lead” in international affairs. It has pursued manifestly expansionist territorial claims, most notably in the South China Sea, and shown a clear determination to resist the indefinite continuation of American dominance in the region. The prevailing Chinese mindset is that the US is intent on isolating, containing, and undermining it.”

Yes the assertive leadership of China’s Xi Jinping makes it difficult for other nations in the region not to be nervous in case of a confrontation especially among the claimants in the disputed territories. Tagged as the bully in the region, China’s recent activities in the South China Sea has contributed more tension to the already tensed situation in the area. But this is just one part of the contested area. There are other flashpoints like the one with Japan and also the Taiwan issue that China must address with diplomacy in order to avoid confrontations that might lead to a regional conflict in the process.

From the said article by Evans, he included some salient points from the ‘blueprint’  that will help ease the tension between China and the US. Written by the former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, head of the Asia Society Policy Institute and was released for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Rudd used the term “constructive realism” which is a clunky label, but his analysis and policy prescriptions are compelling (according to Evans).

The “realist” dimension of Rudd’s argument recognizes that certain areas of disagreement – including Taiwan, territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas, US alliances in Asia, Chinese military modernization, and the legitimacy of China’s political system – will remain intractable for the foreseeable future. They will defy easy solutions – and thus will require very careful management.

The “constructive” part of Rudd’s thesis argues for systematic collaboration – with the US treating China more as an equal – in tackling a series of other difficult issues at bilateral, regional, and global levels. Bilaterally, such cooperation might involve an investment treaty, a joint intelligence task force on terrorism, a cyber-security protocol, agreed measures for managing unplanned military incidents and mutual ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty.

On a regional level, Rudd argues, the US and China could work on joint strategies to denuclearize and, ultimately, reunify the Korean Peninsula; tackle the lingering sore of Japan’s war history; harmonize regional trade agreements; and transform the East Asia Summit into a more complete Asia-Pacific Community.

Globally, Rudd believes that the joint agenda could focus on combating climate change, revitalizing the G-20, further internationalizing the renminbi; giving China a greater role in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; and reforming other key international institutions within the UN system.

Methinks that Uncle Sam will never treat China as well its equal. One glaring example is Obama’s pivot to Asia which only shows that Washington's reach is extended to this side of the Pacific, and all its allies here should help in maintaining such status quo.
Economics is another factor where China’s soft power approach towards its neighbors helped in some ways to win the hearts of their leaders. Although Obama’s TPP with all its shortcomings, tried to counter China’s soft power strategy.

With the help of BRICS and the bank they created like AIIB and NDB, that will counter the IMF and World Bank, China will no longer be interested to take part in the said lending institutions. It’s quite obvious that China and the rest of the BRICS wanted to create a multipolar world, giving more room for development to other developing countries which was neglected by the unipolar world wherein a single superpower (the US) has all the means to prosper and using Third World countries as its supplier of raw materials and cheap labor.
Creating a balance in many aspects in the global arena will level the playing field and give chance for all nations to develop so that peace can be attain where hegemony and a unipolar world will only be a thing of the past.

EMP: China's First Strike Policy by Erick San Juan

EMP: China's First Strike Policy by Erick San Juan

Ferdie Pasion, a political activist and patriot alerted me that if the US really wants to bring down China, all the US has to do is transfer ALL its factories back to the US and also to the Philippines. He added that it is the US that has been making China strong to justify big US military spending. "If the US will just withdraw all US factories in China, China will collapse. But the US loves China and will not withdraw! Or could it be a mutual understanding?"

"If it is true that America considers China as a ‘threat’, why are the Americans still doing business there? Although it is also possible that America and China are not enemies, it is all for a show, the truth is, it is the US that is making China stronger by giving them the technology they needed in various fields of development. While America is weakening the Philippines by pushing the Bangsamoro Basic Law and by supporting the MILF. If America wants to contain China, it must strengthen and not weaken the Philippines.", Pasion concluded.

A realization that came about from the AFP Chief of Staff, Gen. Gregorio Catapang, “Filipino and American soldiers may be engaged in joint military exercises but in case the Philippines gets involved in a real war, it's on its own.” - ANC, The World Tonight, April 23, 2015

According to Gen. Catapang, the AFP should strengthen its capabilities because when the time comes that the country will be attacked, we will rely on our own strength. He is aware that the MDT, Mutual Defense Treaty and the EDCA are not the solution in the SCS (WPS) territorial disputes.

Although we heard from the past US Ambassadors and from Pres. Barack Obama himself when he visited the country a year ago that, “Our commitment to defend the Philippines is ironclad and the United States will keep that commitment, because allies never stand alone,” Obama told Philippine and US troops at a packed military gymnasium at Fort Bonifacio. (http://www.gmanetwork.com)

We have to get our act together if it’s the only thing left to get this country back on its feet despite the fact that the present administration is already perceived on its lame duck mode. We have to be wary as the drums of war is getting louder and the military technology has leveled up, while we still purchase museum-grade military hardware from Uncle Sam.

From F. Michael Maloof, senior staff writer for national security affairs for WND and G2Bulletin, is a former senior security policy analyst in the office of the secretary of defense. In his article , China reveals 'ace' against U.S. military (published at wnd.com, 1/30/2014) - Members of the Chinese military are looking to use an electromagnetic pulse as part of a “one-two punch” to knock out – literally within seconds – all defensive electronics not only in Taiwan but also on U.S. warships that could defend the island.

This revelation comes in an article by Lou Xiaoqing who said, the People’s Liberation Army sees an EMP weapon as the primary means of incapacitating Taiwan and disabling American defenders nearby.

Given that such a strategy was made public in an article entitled “Electromagnetic pulse bombs are Chinese ace,” it is seen as reflecting the official Chinese government position.

Xaoqing said that if the Chinese were to use a high-altitude nuclear device which would create the destructive EMP impact on Taiwan’s electronics, it would explode at an altitude of 18 miles to avoid damaging civilian and military equipment on the Chinese mainland, which might happen if the bomb exploded at a higher altitude. HEMP is the nightmare of many defense contractors worldwide.

“China is attracted to the fight against the U.S. military after the effective range, using them as a means of surprise attack or an intimidation factor,” Xaoqing said. “The United States will abandon the use of aircraft carrier battle groups to defend Taiwan.”

Xaoqing said that the Chinese military has calculated that the U.S. military is too fragmented and, coupled with the downturn in the economy, would be less likely to come to Taiwan’s assistance, forcing Taiwan to defend itself.

Contrary to popular belief, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act does not require the United States to intervene militarily if the Chinese mainland attacks Taiwan. Instead, it has adopted what is called a policy of “strategic ambiguity” in which the U.S. will neither confirm nor deny that it would intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.

The legislation, however, does require the U.S. to “provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character” and “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.”

We have written and discussed in details the uses of EMP in the field of weather modification, but in this said article, China has leveled up and might use EMP as military weapon.

Is the great Uncle Sam prepared for this?

Weather Engineering, For Real! By Erick San Juan

 "Rains and winds, and whatsoever occurs by local impulse alone, can be caused by demons. It is a dogma of faith that the demons can produce winds, storms, and rains of fire from heaven." (Summa, St. Thomas Aquinas 1225-1274)

In the very early years when there was still war waging between science and religion especially in the field of meteorology, heavenly phenomena were explained in different theories, one came from St. Thomas Aquinas. On second thought, he could be right if we are going to base it on what is happening with today’s weather and climate situation.

Weather conditions in different parts of the globe are amazing and happening in extreme conditions, may it be hot or cold or winter and summer. Conditions that they said happened for the first time. Strong weather disturbances and even earthquakes are being felt at their strongest. Many believed that these things occur due to climate change and global warming.
Beliefs that being fed through mainstream media and via the internet. Being backed up by organizations and groups like the one created at the United Nations where annual meetings seemed to be always missing the crucial element of such huge change on weather and/or climate conditions.

The element is the use of HAARP (High-Frequency Active Auroral Research Program) by evil geniuses tampering with Mother Nature and thereby creating chaos and havoc around the world killing thousands. This could be the work of demons as the case may be as theorized by St. Thomas Aquinas.

“I am fascinated by the fact that George Orwell’s predictions in the 1949 novel “Nineteen Eighty Four” include a somewhat different picture. He said “Teams of experts are indefatigably at work. Some are concerned simply with planning the logistics of future wars; others explore even remoter possibilities such as focusing the sun’s rays through lenses suspended thousands of kilometers away in space, or producing artificial earthquakes and tidal waves [i.e., tsunamis] by tapping the heat at the earth’s centre.”  (From Theupliftingcrane's Blog)

The internet is full of information on what is HAARP all about, the pros and cons, from various sectors. One such news that came out in the middle of last year was the supposed plans of closing down the HAARP facility in Alaska.

“As we found out last month, all the bogus stories about HAARP closing down were more fake than a politician kissing a baby during election season."

"When I found the 25 million dollar budget from the US Navy for the Fiscal Year of 2015 — that sealed the deal on whether or not the facility is still in operation.

Today (February 26 2015), I decided to do a search on plasma experiments authorized for FY2015 and FY2016 by the United States Government.

While searching for budgets, I stumbled upon this NEW February 2015 release from the American Geophysical Union regarding new experiments done at HAARP.

Yes, new experiment results from HAARP, submitted January 2015.  This means that all the stories about H.A.A.R.P. being closed down in 2014 were false.

Now move forward to 2015, we have the budget for this year from the US Navy, and we have experiment results coming in from 2014 into 2015 – proving the facility did NOT shut down in 2013, and did not shut down in 2014.

Big media outlets made false reports last year saying HAARP was closed — big names such as livescience, RT, and even NBC news jumping on the false information bandwagon.
After reading these nonsense stories about shutdown, I must point out how the disinformation started."

"(Literally this was a made up story in 2013 — at first saying that HAARP was being closed due to 'dirty diesel generators'.  This disinformation was debunked in 2013 by myself.    This happened again in 2014 saying HAARP was being dismantled for parts – both false reports from a HAARP denier website called the ARRL).

Obviously the ARRL is full of the old stuff, and the people who repeated the false shutdown story now must correct themselves." (Source: Michael Janitch, Geophysical Union, February 26, 2015)

A deliberate floater of some sort creating a fake report could be a pretext to another scenario, making people believe in the process that the HAARP facility was already dismantled.

In May 2014, it was reported at rt.com that - The Air Force is said to be getting ready to wave their last good-bye to the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), the Anchorage Daily News reports. Unlike last year’s rumors about the project’s demise, this time it appears to be for real.

"We're moving on to other ways (http://rt.com/news/dressed-lasers-weather-rain-548/) of managing the ionosphere, which the HAARP was really designed to do,” David Walker has recently told the House’s Appropriations Subcommittee as leaked on YouTube. Walker is an Air Force official tasked with overseeing much of the branch's science and technology research efforts.

After 21 years of experiments, the controversial HAARP project is no longer “an area that we have any need for in the future,” he said.

It seems that the demonic minds of some geniuses have mastered the art of weather engineering and can do such manipulation with expertise and leaving no trace.
Like what happened recently in Belarus - An “apocalyptical” storm swept through several regions in Belarus, including the capital. But it was in the city of Soligorsk where clouds as black as ink obscured the sun light, while strong winds ushered in a sand storm.
Soligorsk residents, about 120 kilometers from the capital Minsk, were both scared and excited by the weather phenomenon that hit Belarus on Monday. At around 17:00 local time, darkness descended on the city with over 100,000 residents opting to stay indoors.
The epic storm was created by a cold front on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border that later reached the Carpathian Mountains in an event that is quite rare for this time of the year. Meteorologists called the natural phenomenon a “haboob,” which means an intense red dust storm in Arabic.

Such weather phenomenon like what happened in Belarus can be associated to the capabilities that only HAARP can do.

There are really weird things happening everywhere. In the Philippines, despite intense draught, a super typhoon almost hit us during the lenten season. Last week, a blazing sinkhole in Northwest China terrified the locals. My friend from Singapore told me that we really have to be wary of freak weather. She said that the phenomena is not natural.

 Beware of new technologies for war!

Warning Signs, Prelude to World War

Warning Signs, Prelude to World War
By Erick San Juan

Having air and sea military exercises with other allied countries is not new especially if it’s a regular event based on agreements. But given the growing tensions among nations with common interest in certain territories, make the military exercise as a way of provocation or a threat to other neighboring territories.

Our own annual joint military exercises with the United States (later on joined by Australia) dubbed as 'Balikatan' started with the passage of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), since then the annual military exercise is considered as a regular exercise.

Considering the tensions in the contested areas in the South China Sea or West Philippine Sea with China, every year’s Balikatan is perceived as a pretext to a possible conflict that might lead to a shooting war. And it’s not just a regular conflict but a bigger one, considering the involvement of both the US and Australia that make the whole region nervous.

A pundit told me that the structures being built by China's military in South China Sea/West Philippine Sea is not in preparation for a possible attack in the Philippines but China's first line of defense just in case US make their move against mainland China. He added that China need not attack the Philippines from South China Sea bases because the Chinese slippers have been here for so long and basically control all walks of life of the Filipinos including our economy, local communities, politicians, law enforcers including the underworld. The pro-Beijing operatives learned from the Japanese invaders before and after the 2nd world war.

Same is true on the other side of the globe, in Europe the military drills dubbed 'Exercise Joint Warrior' include around 50 warships and submarines, 70 aircrafts and a total 13,000 military personnel.

Participating countries are NATO member states including the US, Germany, France and Turkey, as troops are prepared to respond to attacks and detect enemy vessels, underwater or aircraft in the skies.

Prior to the launch of the drills, the British Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the war games were not a response to any single country.

The MoD said in a statement: "There will be significant naval and aerial activity off the west and east coast of Scotland, including amphibious landings on the west coast."

This comes after a Russian submarine reportedly ventured close to Scottish waters in recent weeks. Since the Ukraine crisis, there are growing concern that Russia has increased incursions by submarines and warplanes to test European and North American defenses since relations between Moscow and the West began to deteriorate.

The West accused Russia of having a hand in the crisis in eastern Ukraine, an allegation strongly rejected by Kremlin.

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon accused President Putin of "subverting democracy" with his actions in eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

The 'Exercise Joint Warrior', which is held twice a year, is planned to continue until April 24. (By Rebecca Perring)

It has been over a year since the Ukranian crisis broke out and until this day a threat towards a broader conflict is looming among the NATO-member countries and Russia. The threat is real and the signs are clear leading to a possible world war.

Another interesting study by Michael Raska and Richard A. Bitzinger in the RSIS cited that last February 2013, the current Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, and first Deputy Defence Minister, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, published an article in the Russian newspaper Military-Industrial Courier projecting the conceptual contours of future conflicts: the so-called "hybrid wars" or "non-linear wars."

Underscoring Gerasimov’s concepts of “hybrid wars” are three mutually-reinforcing principles. First and foremost, it is the idea of the “permanency of conflict,” which blurs the boundaries between wartime and peacetime, space and time, as well as actors involved. In essence, ascertaining whether a state of war exists becomes increasingly difficult, particularly for the one under an attack. According to Gerasimov, 21st century conflicts in Africa and the Middle East show that prosperous and stable regimes can, within a short period of time – perhaps even in the space of a few days – transform into arenas of intense conflicts. These events may not reflect an official state of war, but their social, economic, and political implications for individual countries and their societies are comparable with the consequences of real wars.”

Like what is happening in our region, the race towards an arms race is a clear indication that we are all at war, perhaps unnoticed by some leaders but the mere fact that country like ours is actually fueling the military-industrial-complex by buying museum-grade military hardware. Once it started, it will never stop as tensions keep growing every day.

We are on the verge of having a real war in the offing and the present administration’s only concern now is the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law as soon as possible.

Unsolicited advice to the PNoy administration, please stop purchasing second hand and war vintage materiels. Our need is immediate. If our allies are serious in supporting us which many doubt,  we have to acquire game changing firepower like portable but brand new missiles, stingers and fast speed boats or 'kumpit' to fight a 'Goliath'. Despite our Mutual Defense purchase agreement, we can request for a counter trade agreement due to budgetary constraint. If not lets all pray harder to avert a 'rape with consent' in the making.