Monday, February 16, 2009



By Erick San Juan

I happened to get a copy of Jim Lobe’s analysis released by Inter Press Service dated December 8, 2008 entitled “Intelligence Analysts See Risky Multi-polar World By 2025”. In Lobe’s analysis, he quoted the U.S. government’s National Intelligence Council Report which stated that the United States will remain the world’s single most powerful country in 2025 although it will be less dominant and more constrained in its freedom of action even in the military sphere than before.

It is very clear in his report that it is focused on the new emerging superpowers like the BRIC nation states – Brazil, Russia, India and China. A 110 page report entitled, “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”, made him revise his assessments of the geo-political situation.

As part of the scenario building which he seems to complicate by saying that the BRIC will emerge as a global multi-polar system but Chinese suspicion that its energy supplies could be threatened by India, will lead into an escalation of conflict that could ensue into a global conflagration. In another report that he expound, Lobe said that India and China are likely to be more pre-occupied with their internal development than in changing the international system. He added that none of the BRIC powers could challenge that status quo in the ways that Japan and Germany did in the 19th and 20th centuries that led to world wars, to protect their own interests.

The Lobe report said that the BRIC nations could match the G7 (Group of Seven) meaning the U.S., Canada, Japan and the European Union in the global GDP by the year 2040-2050. By 2025, China will allegedly be the world’s second largest economy and will be a leading military power.

Lobe compared the 2020 report with the 2025. The 2020 report reportedly projected a world in which U.S. would be dominant that major powers would have given up the idea of balancing or challenging it. While the 2025 report feature a multi-polar world where the U.S. will only be one of the key players in the world stage but still the most powerful one.

The 2020 report said that fossil fuels will remain the dominant sources of energy and sufficient enough to meet global demand. In contrast, the 2025 report said that there will be energy scarcity which could be the driving force in geopolitics which could wreak havoc among major oil and gas exporters in the Middle East especially Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Lobe concluded that the report was uncertain. There’s a likelihood of major discontinuities and the next 20 years will emerge a transition toward a new international system fraught with risks, nuclear arms race in the Middle East and possible interstate conflicts over resources.

I partly agree with Lobe and with the Global Trends 2025 report but it seems that the report is sort of a PR work for the globalist’s agenda.

U.S.A. today is not the same mighty America that I know. Yes, most Americans are good people but the government within its government is gradually destroying the U.S. from within. Outside looking in, many independent analysts are predicting a new Roman empire to fall instead of becoming more powerful. The “power” behind the scene in its government will create a greater Israel for the Zionists comprising of a bigger portion of the Middle East and Africa as its boundary. All the “war games” in the book will be unleashed soon. The pattern of events that lead to the 1st and 2nd world war is unfolding.

Watch the ongoing elections in Israel where most political parties unite to make a big decision as a national consensus and install a hardliner like Binyamin Netanyahu of the Likud Party as the next prime minister, where the main agenda as reported in the news is to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The parallel move of State Secretary Hillary Clinton in visiting Asia and the Pentagon’s early staging of several military exercises in Asia especially in South East Thailand and the Philippines, made strategic and military analysts in Asia wonders.

The strengthening of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan is perceived us counter balance to China and Russia. Southwest Asia is the gateway to China. The saber rattling between Pakistan and India could be manipulated to achieve the main agenda of encirclement.

If the American people will act fast and President Barack Obama could neutralize the pressures from the “powers” behind the scene, there’s still time to save America and the world.

U.S. director of National Intelligence, Dennis Blair said recently that it is not terrorism but economic crisis that tops the list of U.S. threats which could cause nations and governments to collapse. (Philippine Star – February 14, 2009)

I was reminded by my friend, Eric Filamor that such a scenario is a probability and the mighty will be humbled and the humble will be mighty! Need I say more?

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Panama Scenario: Deja vu!

Panama Scenario: Deja vu!

by Erick San Juan

Our government should be wary of the unabated kidnappings going on in the countryside. The most serious of which is the abduction of the four International Red Cross team who were kidnapped for more than a month now after visiting a Sulu jail five meters away from the provincial capitol.

The reported kidnapper, according to my informant is headed by Aldaber Parad, who is known to be an "asset" of scalawags in uniform in Sulu. Out of the blue, he disguises himself as an ideologue and leads a cell of ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group)/JI (Jemaah Islamiyah). He's now an unwitting tool to legitimize a "wag the dog" scenario for a reported ongoing military operation in Sulu where the U.S. military doing ”Balikatan" could intervene at the proper time.

This has happened in the rescue of the Burnham couple, that despite the denial of our local authorities that there are no American troops involved in the rescue that killed ASG spokesman, Abu Sabaya and his cohorts, the History Channel at Destiny Cable TV last Tuesday night, February 10, showed how the rescue operation happened.

The GMA administration should learn from what happened in Panama before the US military abducted former Panamanian president Manuel Noriega and jailed in the US for alleged international crimes. The same pattern of ICRC abduction happened and Noriega was believed to be behind the kidnapping.

In the Philippines, the so called "Mindanao Option" meaning the increasing kidnapping incidents in Sulu, Basilan and Mindanao plus the massing up of hundreds of MILF troops in Maguindanao are bannered in the newspapers and believed by Arroyo critics as a script that the GMA administration will put into play to extend the term of PGMA. It will be timed according to Makati Mayor Jojo Binay upon the issuance of executive order E.O. 777, an alleged revival of the unconstitutional MoA-AD (Memo of Agreement on Ancestral Domain). During the time of Marcos, martial law was declared with the blessing of the US government. Will the so called ”Mindanao Option" be favoring GMA or is it the Noriega option that is ON? With the perception of brazen graft and corruption going on daily and the credibility of the World Bank is threatened and contested by the legal experts and allies of PGMA in Congress, let's just watch the confluence of events unfolding.