Tuesday, December 31, 2013

The Fuse is Burning by Erick San Juan

As the anniversary of the outbreak of World War I approaches, the world today bears a chilling similarity to one hundred years ago. Then, amid a deepening crisis of world capitalism, the major powers were engaged in a high stakes game of diplomatic intrigue, provocation and military intervention that produced one “war scare” after another. (Source: Japanese PM Revives Militarist Traditions. “Japan Closely Integrated into US War Preparations against China” by Peter Symonds)

As an observer of events, I have been telling my listeners that the present world is actually experiencing the same events that led to the First World War (and the second World War). And I am not alone in this view, taken from the interview of Rob Kirby by Greg Hunter's show 'USA Watchdog', he said that “Isn’t it interesting that the timing, we see the war drums are getting louder and louder as the financial system getting weaker and weaker and ever close to a blow up and along with the installation of a police state in America.”
We are not trying to spoil the spirit of the season as we close the year towards 2014 but whether we like it or not, the world is set for another war in the offing. "When China stops getting the amount of gold that they need or want, and that might be when we have a war.”, Kirby added Because isn’t it interesting as China romps the amount of gold that they been consuming and getting shipped to them, we hear rumblings in the background all over the place about calls from the military or the specter of the military engagements whether it’s between Japan and China or whether it’s in the Middle East, in Syria. When the gold stops flowing to China, that’s when somebody is gonna bang the gun. (Rob Kirby, financial analyst)

This is the gloomy analysis of Rob Kirby of the current situation. This is also the reason why mankind is experiencing reports everywhere of an impending war. The signs are written on the wall for everybody to see and be warned. Now the question is how long can this go on? Rob Kirby replied – “There is a universal constant in economics and always has been like rivers flow from mountain tops to the sea. Physical gold has always flown from countries with balance of trade deficits to countries with balance of trade surpluses. Whether or not there is an official gold standard because there has not always been an official gold standard going back hundreds and hundreds of years.

The amount of physical gold in the world is a finite number and the amount that China has been procuring and been consuming over the last number of months and years is not sustainable. We could run out of gold, that is a given and that is  absolutely a fact.”That is the scariest part when the West (where China is getting its gold) runs out of gold, what will happen now?

“We know factually because its reported even in our brain-dead mainstream media that Chinese appetite for physical gold is insatiable and we know because we have had data that physical gold is being shipped at breakneck phase. So when is the West have none? When is the cupboard bare?”Kirby see it coming sooner than later, it could be at the early part of the first quarter of the New Year (at the most) because “the reality is, we have an ever shortening fuse that is lit connected to an ever growing pile of explosives. So how long is the fuse and how big is the pile of explosives when it goes?”

The confluence of events are happening concurrently, signs of an impending war, when triggered with just a single spark could blow the fuse towards a global war.

Be ever vigilant new year to all!

Friday, December 27, 2013


US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff called for continued military-to-military talks with the Chinese to defuse tensions. The goal, General Dempsey said, “was to come to a common agreement about rules of behavior when we encounter each other in three particular domains: air, sea and cyber.” (Source New York Times online by Thom Shanker, December 19, 2013)

The above-mentioned statement was released after “naval vessels from the two countries came close to colliding in the South China Sea on Dec. 5, when a Chinese warship cut across the bow of an American cruiser, the USS Cow-pens.”

In times like this any incident/accident between the G2 (China and the US) in the hottest contested area in the world – the China Sea (South and East) could spell big trouble, and might drag other countries in the region into a regional conflict in the process. Some pundits believe that a spark, usually a miscalculation, could trigger a global war because some of the countries in the region, mostly claimants in the South China Sea’s disputed territories are allies of Washington and it only means that they will possibly unite behind the big brother. Presto – a mutually assured destruction!

As an observer of events, I have written about this in my blog (ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) and published in several newspapers, how Beijing and Washington continuously talking through their military officials about the future of the region when it comes to maritime disputes. But the recent event of China’s establishing its ADIZ (air defense identification zone) which overlapped those of Japan’s and South Korea’s ADIZ, the tension has started to escalate again.

Although one can see that in the same news article, there seems to be a doublespeak by Gen. Dempsey when he was asked to “assess the level of American concern over China’s fielding of an aircraft carrier(a refurbished older vessel bought from Ukraine). General Dempsey noted that the Chinese were “a long way from being a threat to us with their aircraft carrier.”

If this is so, who is provoking who? And with the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, out to its first voyage in the South China Sea, the Pentagon now is preparing to counter “the Chinese military’s focus on long-range bombs and missiles designed at least in part to deny American forces’ access to waters closer to China.” Of course, huge investments had to cover this budget intended “to preserve the ability of American warships and warplanes to operate where they want.”

So in the end of the analysis there is no budget cut for military spending (like what they said before) when the American military hegemony is at stake here, threatened by Beijing’s military modernization at full speed.

The perception of some pundits that war is bound to happen (whether we like it or not) is not farfetched. Especially if such provocations like what happened this month will continue. There are other flashpoints that the rest of the world is watching very closely. Escalation of tensions by mere miscalculation could be the trigger that will drag us all, not only in the Asia-Pacific but also the rest of the world into another global war.

Let us all pray harder that what the US military officials said of their military to military talks with China about rules of engagement in the field of air, cyber and sea will really bring positive results so that peace will prevail.

 But lets all be wary of the super elites agenda dictating a designed crisis like what they did during the first and the second world wars. Nuke, biological, chemical and other tricks are in the offing! The signature is there!

 My deep sympathy and condolences to mom Vilma, Cong.Chuck, Councilor Bu and siblings for the untimely death of a very good friend and a father to me, former QC Mayor Mel Mathay. He has been good to so many people.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

A New 'Pearl Harbor' in the Offing

A New 'Pearl Harbor' in the Offing
By Erick San Juan
Reports that a Chinese navy vessel tried this month to force a US warship to a halt in international waters have senior US officials and longtime Asia analysts asking what, precisely, China was trying to prove by the maneuver.
US naval officials note that the USS Cowpers – a guided missile warship – was “lawfully operating” in waters near the South China Sea when it had an encounter with a People's Liberation Army (PLA) vessel “that required maneuvering to avoid a collision,” according to an article in the Washington Free Beacon.
The incident followed China’s announcement that it will establish an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, a move that elicited howls of objection from the US military, as well as from China’s neighbors in Southeast Asia, who worry about Beijing's growing willingness to flex its military muscle in the region.
While US Navy officials confirmed the episode, they also caution that these sort of standoffs with China happen with relative frequency in the Pacific and that, according to one Navy officer with knowledge of the event, it’s important not to “overhype” the incident. (Various sources online 12/13/13)
Maybe that is the reason why the incident was not reported immediately. It's only now because the media will possibly hype it in relation to China’s ADIZ. Anyway, now that it is already in the news, such incident can be perceived as another provocation that might lead to a global conflict, probably another 'Pearl Harbor' incident in the offing?
From several analysts, the Pearl Harbor incident is the 'Mother of All Conspiracies', while according to Encyclopedia Britannica there is this so-called ‘back door’ theory:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
Was there a "back door" to World War II, as some revisionist historians have asserted? According to this view, then President Franklin D. Roosevelt, inhibited by the American public's opposition to direct U.S. involvement in the fighting and determined to save Great Britain from a Nazi victory in Europe, manipulated events in the Pacific in order to provoke a Japanese attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, thereby forcing the United States to enter the war on the side of Britain.
In other words, Pearl Harbor incident is a false flag operation. But in the present time, will people repeat history? Like what happened recently in the South China Sea, another stand-off between China and the United States. Is this testing the water for a possible Pearl Harbor scenario?
Another flashpoint is in the East China Sea where China and Japan are both claiming the Senkakus(Diaoyu Is.).  Actually several pundits see this escalation of tension in this part of the region as a prelude to a possible conflict that can lead to another world war.
A couple of flashpoints that made this part of the planet as the hottest area and after the escalation of tension, a miscalculation could spell M-A-D, a mutually assured destruction.
Although observers especially netizens see this scenario coming because there is actually a silent war going on inside China and the US, if not handled the right way, may lead to a possible civil war in China and a second revolution in USA. Both countries’ internal problems need a scenario that can unite their citizenry in order to divert their attention away from their present predicaments. And unfortunately, if this war scenario will happen in the Asia-Pacific region, we will be dragged into a war whether we like it or not.
And the upcoming visit of Secretary John Kerry in the guise of looking into the welfare of the victims of the typhoon is all double talk. We should be wary as to the real agenda of the big brother here. Remember that I have been writing (@ericksanjuan.blogspotcom) and talking about this on my daily radio program that a possible Pearl Harbor scenario is not farfetched. Unfortunately, the Philippines could be the epicenter of the next global war. Yes, there is a lot of pocket wars in the Middle East but remember that this is much different than what is going on in the Asia-Pacific region where the undercurrents could reach the boiling point sooner than we thought. God forbid!

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

War By The Chosen Few by Erick San Juan

For over two weeks now, the issue on China’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) is still very much the hot topic among analysts and observers of current events. Even to some netizens, various comments and sometimes harsh ones are still the trend.

There is nothing new about establishing an ADIZ for security reasons among countries especially the threatened ones under tensions created by disputes over territories. This time around the China-Japan dispute over tiny islands has created another chapter of tension especially that the mighty Uncle Sam is supporting Japan, its ally in the region.

But as an observer of events as they unfold, there could be other reasons why US and its allies (or even on the part of China) are making such a huge deal about this 'animal' called ADIZ.

From the point of view of some analysts, like Ric Saludo of Manila Times, in his article ‘Here we go again: China’s new gambit’, he wrote that one factor (among three factors) that some “analysts for the ADIZ move is the need for the new administration of President Xi and Prime Minister Li Keqiang to consolidate power and push sweeping economic reforms, which will inevitably generate opposition from powerful vested interests in the bureaucracy, local governments, and business groups. As with any external challenge, harnessing the armed forces to assert territorial claims against foreign nations lines up both the people and the military behind the government.”

In the midst of the availability of information on the internet via the social media networks, and by fearless bloggers, restiveness within China cannot be hidden to the rest of the world.

As reported by Willy Lam (Xi's power grab dwarfs market reforms) he pointed out that the “recent Third Plenary Session of the 18th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee was expected to unveil major initiatives in economic liberalization. What has struck Chinese and foreign observers most is the weight that the leadership has given to enhancing state security, particularly centralizing powers in the top echelon of the party-state apparatus.

There are also doubts about whether Xi's insistence on party leadership of economic policy would contradict the pride of place that Li seems to be giving to market forces. The plenum communique and resolution put a lot of emphasis on the fact that "comprehensively deepening reform must require strengthening and improving party leadership, and fully developing the core leadership function of the party in taking charge of the whole situation while coordinating [the needs] of different sectors".

The documents also called upon "party committees of all levels to earnestly fulfill the leadership responsibility over reform".

In the eyes of Chen Ziming, a famed theorist of reform, the much-anticipated Third Plenum has turned out to be more a question of power than of reform. "With Xi Jinping becoming the head of the two new committees [set up at the plenum], he has tightened his stranglehold on the reins of power," Chen said. "We still do not know enough of Xi to tell what he is about to do. He can go down the road of [the reformist former Taiwan president] Chiang Ching-chuo or he could become another [Cambodian dictator] Pol Pot."

The tortuous history of China's reforms seem to show that the quasi-superpower has yet to undergo tougher tests before it can hit upon a formula that will satisfy both the rulers' urge to control and the people's desire to liberate their production forces.

The reforms that has to be implemented by the present Chinese leadership will undergo another phase in the lives of over a billion Chinese citizenry. This may take a long while. For the time being Pres. Xi has to confront issues confronting its almost equal, Uncle Sam through its allies- Japan and South Korea when it comes to the disputed area in the East China Sea. But beyond this, there are also economic issues that has to be resolved between Washington and Beijing soon.

 The other side of the truth is out. According to Yu Hua (International New York Times, Dec.3,2013) in his latest article, "The Hijacking of Chinese Patriotism", Yu believed that a 'New China' is in the offing. Just like China's brewing war on Japan. He said that this fight has double meaning. "If we win , we get Diaoyu Island. If we lose, we get a 'New China'. Meaning China which communist party is no longer the dominant power.

 See how history is repeated by the 'super elites' without the complete knowledge of their leaders. Wars are all crisis by design to achieve their full control of the global governance. With the playing field controlled by a chosen few.

Art of War: ADIZ by Erick San Juan

Art of War: ADIZ by Erick San Juan 

China established an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)" effective as of 10 am on November 23. China's Ministry of National Defense also announced Aircraft Identification Rules for the ADIZ, which include a warning that "defensive emergency measures" would be adopted to respond to aircraft that refuse to follow the instructions.
All nations have the right to establish reasonable conditions of entry into their territory. An ADIZ is a declaration of a perimeter within which unidentified aircraft can be intercepted and prevented from illegally proceeding to enter national airspace. It serves essentially as a national defense boundary for aerial incursions. There are no international rules or laws that determine the size of an ADIZ. Over 20 nations have an ADIZ, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan in the West Pacific. ADIZs typically are much more extensive than a country's territorial airspace. (Source: China's ADIZ undermines regional stability by Bonnie S Glaser)
Another move by Beijing – by establishing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in East China Sea last November 23, it has also created a very tense situation that made the neighborhood really nervous in the process.
But a lot of observers are wondering why the hell Uncle Sam is furious with this move by Beijing while in reality ADIZ is not a new specie. There are existing ADIZs around the world including the mighty America and of course, Japan. So what else is new?
Could there be another reason? Here is what we found out posted at Information Clearing House (December 1, 2013)-  The escalation of military tensions between Washington and Beijing in the East China Sea is superficially over China’s unilateral declaration of an air defense zone. But the real reason for Washington’s ire is the recent Chinese announcement that it is planning to reduce its holdings of the US dollar.
That move to offload some of its 3.5 trillion in US dollar reserves combined with China’s increasing global trade in oil based on national currencies presents a mortal threat to the American petrodollar and the entire American economy.
This threat to US viability - already teetering on bankruptcy, record debt and social meltdown - would explain why Washington has responded with such belligerence to China setting up an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) last week extending some 400 miles from its coast into the East China Sea.
Beijing said the zone was aimed at halting intrusive military maneuvers by US spy planes over its territory. The US has been conducting military flights over Chinese territory for decades without giving Beijing the slightest notification. (Dollar Survival Behind US-China Tensions by Finian Cunningham)
So it is still economy, hmmm…. But if not handled with cooler heads, this planned escalation in retaliation to the Beijing’s ADIZ can actually snowballed into a regional conflict that will drag other allied nations from both sides and will end up into a global war.
Like what the blogger, with the pseudonym The Saker wrote – “First, imagine just for a second that the Chinese had shot down the two US bombers. Then what? Would the US, which did not even have the balls to strike Iran or Syria, attack China? The US for sure could not go to the United Nations Security Council for support where they would be laughed out from the council chambers by both Russia and China and, probably most other members too.
So, did the Americans count on the Chinese doing the right thing? If that is the case, then the only message sent to Beijing is "Look, we are irresponsible and reckless, and we count on your sanity". This is most unlikely to impress anybody in China. Second, now that the Chinese did the smart thing and ignored the US alleged stupidity, what has this move achieved beyond alienating China even further?
One really ought to know absolutely nothing about Asia to believe that you can impose a major loss of face on a superpower like China and not have to pay dearly for it. Pundits believe the big difference between the US and China is that the former acts like a spoiled teenager brat with an attention and memory span in the 5-10 minutes range: "The Chinese did not attack our bombers - that must mean that we taught them a good lesson!"
The Chinese will make you pay - dearly - for each such humiliation (and God knows there have been many such humiliations the past couple of decades - remember the Chinese embassy in Belgrade?), but they will make you pay on their own time, when they decide, and that could take literally centuries.”
There are too many flashpoints already in existence, and to add more to a very tense region could really put all of us in big trouble whether we like it or not.
The moral lesson of the story, don’t add more fuel to the already fiery situation like what our government officials are saying. Let us be vigilant and put diplomacy and some expertise in geostrategy. May God help us all pass through this global hurdle involving the giants.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Man-made Tragedy! By Erick San Juan

The 'tragedy' in the Philippines has become a talking point at the Warsaw international venue on Climate Change (November 11 to 22) under the United Nations auspices. The plight of  typhoon Haiyan has casually been assigned without evidence to the impacts of global warming.

While there is no scientific evidence that Super typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) was the consequence of global warming,  the opening statements at the Warsaw Summit have hinted in no uncertain terms to a verified causal relationship. U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Director Christiana Figueres, stated (without evidence) that the typhoon Haiyan was part of the “sobering reality” of global warming. (quoted in Did Climate Change Cause Supertyphoon Haiyan? (TIME.com, November 11, 2013).

In turn, Philippine Representative to the UN Climate Change Venue Mr. Yeb Sano (known to be pseudo left with links to the globalists) in  his dramatic address to the opening session stated: “Typhoons such as Yolanda (Haiyan) and its impacts represent a sobering reminder to the international community that we cannot afford to procrastinate on climate action. Warsaw must deliver on enhancing ambition and should muster the political will to address climate change.” (UN News Center, November 11, 2013)

In a bitter irony, the tragedy in the Philippines has contributed to reinforcing a consensus which indirectly feeds the pockets of corporations lobbying for a new deal on carbon trade. 'Cap and Trade'is a multibillion dollar bonanza which is supported by the global warming consensus.  According to UNFCC head Figueres to quote:

“We must clarify finance that enables the entire world to move towards low-carbon development,… We must launch the construction of a mechanism that helps vulnerable populations to respond to the unanticipated effects of climate change.” Known and  documented, cap-and-trade markets are manipulated. What is at stake is the trade in carbon derivatives which is controlled by powerful financial institutions including JP Morgan Chase. (See Copenhagen’s Hidden Agenda: The Multibillion Trade in Carbon Derivatives, Global Research, December 8, 2009).

The ongoing humanitarian crisis in the Philippines bears no relationship to global warming. Experts believe that social impacts of typhoon Haiyan are aggravated due to the lack of infrastructure and social services, not to mention the absence of a coherent housing policy. Those most affected by the typhoon are living in poverty in make-shift homes.

A reduction of CO2 emissions as suggested by Mr. Yeb Sano in  his address to the opening session of the Warsaw Climate summit will not resolve the plight of an impoverished population. (Source: Climate Change: The Philippines Haiyan Typhoon is not the Result of Global Warming by Prof Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research, November 15, 2013)

The very important issue  to note is that global warming hocus pocus has been proven to deceive nations into entering this so-called carbon trade that will only enrich banksters through their corporats. And the ongoing negotiations at Warsaw, Poland regarding this matter is actually a diversionary tactic on what they are not telling the world. That the real culprit for such huge destruction by a super typhoon is through weather control modification (or weather engineering). Over 1.3 million had viewed this video on you tube with over three thousand reviewed [November 8, 2013 Microwave Pulse Gives Birth to Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzxTXk1JCFw)] a detailed explanation on how weather was controlled to cause havoc and devastation. This is the beauty of the internet. Through videos like this,
people are now conscious enough to search for the other side of truth because mainstream corporate media will not touch on this subject of weather manipulation. My regular listeners and followers of my blog site (http://ericksanjuan.blogspot.com/) are not new to this diabolical scheme. I even have listeners who are doing their own research and helping me out to understand further why such very evil scientific research  are threat to mankind.

As what Prof. Chossudovsky has pointed out that such disaster was aggravated due to the lack of infrastructure and social services, not to mention the absence of a coherent housing policy. Those most affected by the typhoon are living in poverty in improvised homes. Another issue overlooked is the Secretary of DSWD who is in charge of the huge fund that will supposedly help alleviate the poverty-stricken populace, but why is poverty is still prevalent? And to date, through the Philippine government request, another 500 million USD ‘emergency loan’ will be given by the World Bank. Now the perception of most Filipinos is that there is really a 'matuwid na daan' towards someone’s pocket.

In the face of such misery and devastation, the true Pinoy spirit of bayanihan and hope are very much intact. Although the government should be wary that recent events in our country might lead to something else. Manmade or natural disasters can make or break a leadership. Let us pray harder and hope for the best.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

China's MAD by Erick San Juan

“Nothing in China happens overnight,” Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the director of Asia-Pacific programs at the United States Institute of Peace, said. “Any move you see was planned and prepared for years, if not more. So obviously this maritime issue is very important to China.”

The maritime issue referred here is the contested area in the South China Sea and there is another one with Japan in the East China Sea. These two areas in the region, believed to be likened to a ticking bomb just waiting for a trigger to ignite it and explode into a world war in the process.

It is quite obvious by now that one of the reasons why China and the claimants are restive in the disputed area in the South China Sea is about oil (and natural gas). And maybe the so-called freedom of navigation that Washington has been insisting that China has to abide with, by not bullying its neighbors.

But what about the maritime issue of China with Japan? In an article by Perry Diaz of Global Balita - Xi Jinping’s ‘Pax Sinica’, he wrote : With no economic value that’s worth fighting for, it makes one wonder what do these eight uninhabited small islands and islets have that is making China go gaga over them? Could it be that there is something else that China wants that is of far greater value than these desolate specks of land in the middle of East China Sea?

If China gained control of the Senkaku group of islands, which is 114 nautical miles west of Miyako Island, she would be in a position to control or block the Miyako Strait, which connects the East China Sea to the Philippine Sea… and the Pacific Ocean beyond.

Like in the case of the Luzon Strait – “the most likely route for Chinese submarines into the wider Pacific Ocean is through the Luzon Strait, which is situated between Taiwan and the Philippines. It provides direct access into the Philippine Sea. The Luzon Strait is a safer access point than those that lie north between Taiwan and Japan because the Philippines does not have an anti-submarine warfare capability and Taiwan’s anti-submarine capability is relatively limited, especially when compared to Japan’s. Furthermore, U.S. conventional forces are not stationed in Taiwan or the Philippines like they are in South Korea and Japan.” (PH Sea, Luzon Strait Key to China Nuke Ambitions, Stratfor, re-published @manila times online)

The geostrategic plan of China through its People’s Liberation Army Navy, is to become a naval power in the very near future is being manifested today with Beijing’s relationship with its neighbors and most recently with Japan.

“Last October 31, 2013, China’s state-run Global Times published an article, saying that escalating tensions between China and Japan over territorial claims to the Senkaku Islands could ignite a war. It said that Beijing was preparing for a “worst-case” scenario of military conflict over the disputed islands.

It seems that China’s “worst-case” scenario is a deliberate attempt to fulfill Xi’s “Chinese Dream,” which is the revival of imperial China — or Pax Sinica(Chinese Peace) – that had maintained Chinese hegemony in Asia during the reign of the Ming dynasty. “The great revival of the Chinese nation is the greatest Chinese Dream,” Xi said before taking office in November 2012.

Surmise it to say, China’s carefully orchestrated actions in the past two years are leading to war against Japan… and ultimately against the United States, with the goal of ending American hegemony – Pax Americana — in the Pacific.” (Perry Diaz)

Basically all these preparations by China lead to its goal of countering the move by the United States in its pivot to Asia-Pacific.
Although there are other plans like “Operating from the East China Sea, South China Sea or Yellow Sea, Chinese submarines will soon have a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent against Russia and India. But the Chinese submarine fleet will still need to access the open waters beyond the first island chain to maintain a sea-based deterrent against Western Europe and the United States. Until China builds a nuclear submarine fleet (with well-trained crew and support) stealthy enough to routinely attempt access into the Philippine Sea, or submarine-launched ballistic missiles with enough range to target the continental United States, it will have to rely on its land-based strategic nuclear forces as the primary nuclear deterrent against the United States.” (Stratfor)

There seems to be no stopping China’s PLA Navy with its orchestrated moves in the East and South China Sea. It is really a full-speed ahead scenario and anyone caught in the way, might lead to a mutually assured destruction.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Wake up! By Erick San Juan

Wake up! By Erick San Juan

The New York Times Sunday magazine cover story (October 27) - “A Sea of Trouble,” with the second heading “A Game of Shark and Minnow,” is actually an eye-opener for all of us especially to our leaders. Why is this so? The New York Times story cited the following: In a remote corner of the South China Sea, 105 nautical miles from the Philippines, lies a submerged reef the Filipinos call Ayungin Shoal.

In most ways it resembles the hundreds of other reefs, islands, rock clusters and cays that collectively are called the Spratly Islands. But Ayungin is different. In the reef’s shallows there sits a forsaken ship, manned by eight Filipino troops whose job is to keep China in check.

Yes what we have in the contested area is an eight-manned ship, a dilapidated one, actually “a World War II-era ship called the Sierra Madre, which the Philippine government ran aground on the reef in 1999 and has since maintained as a kind of post-apocalyptic military garrison. The small detachment of Filipino troops stationed there struggling to survive extreme mental and physical desolation.”

And this same decaying ship could be the next battleground between China  and our country, whether we like it or not.

“The Sierra Madre at one time was the U.S.S. Harnett County, built as a tank-landing ship for World War II and then repurposed as a floating helicopter and speedboat hub in the rivers of Vietnam. In 1970, the U.S. gave the ship to the South Vietnamese, and in 1976. it was passed on to the Philippines. But nobody had ever taken the time to strip all of the communications gear or even old U.S. logbooks and a fleet guide from 1970.” (Ibid)

Recently, the Filipino troops manning the Sierra Madre were given a power point presentation of the real situation in the contested area particularly in Ayungin. Just imagine the magnitude of the role these men have in the whole region that will have a great impact in the confluence of events particularly in geopolitics.

Unfortunately, China through “Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong, of China’s People’s Liberation Army, said in a television interview in May, using the Chinese term for Scarborough. (That there are three different names for the same set of uninhabitable rocks tells you much of what you need to know about the region.) He described a “cabbage strategy,” which entails surrounding a contested area with so many boats —fishermen, fishing administration ships, marine surveillance ships, navy warships — that “the island is thus wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.”

There can be no question that the cabbage strategy is in effect now at Ayungin and has been at least since May. General Zhang, in his interview several months ago, listed Ren’ai Shoal (the Chinese name for Ayungin) in the P.L.A.’s “series of achievements” in the South China Sea. He had already put it in the win column, even though eight Filipino marines still live there. He also seemed to take some pleasure in the strategy. Of taking territory from the Philippines, he said: “We should do more such things in the future. For those small islands, only a few troopers are able to station on each of them, but there is no food or even drinking water there. If we carry out the cabbage strategy, you will not be able to send food and drinking water onto the islands. Without the supply for one or two weeks, the troopers stationed there will leave the islands on their own. Once they have left, they will never be able to come back.” (Ibid)

The PLA’s cabbage operation in Ayungin is a clear sign how desperate they are to occupy the area, first in Ayungin and before we know it, the whole group of islands known as Spratlys. And the only thing we have there manning the “Dangerous Ground” (a reference made to Spratlys by navigators since the 18th century) is the Sierra Madre with our troops miserably hanging on to what was left of the vintage ship.

I just could not imagine that in the midst of all of these huge funds misused by the chosen few, there in the middle of the sea, our Filipino troops trying to survive in order to protect our sovereignty.

Any sane person will ask after reading this cover story of the NYT magazine, is the Philippines present administration numb on the plight of the eight Filipinos living (or slowly dying) there inside the Sierra Madre? And if not, why the hell they are not doing anything?

All the rhetoric and doublespeak about military modernization through the controversial Malampaya funds to address the South China Sea issue are all BS if such simple thing as this will not be resolved to save what is left of our sovereignty.

China’s cabbage op is already in place  now and through this scheme, any miscalculated move will always be perceived as an act of provocation. A provocation that might lead to a regional conflict in the process. God forbid.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Enemies friend by Erick San Juan

In comments to European diplomats last weekend, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan confirmed that his country’s decision last Friday not to accept a temporary seat on the UN Security Council was “a message for the US, not the UN.”

Having collaborated closely in the US-led war for regime change in Syria, Saudi Arabia reacted angrily to the Obama administration’s decision to pull back from an imminent missile and air attack on Syria last month. It also has concerns over Washington’s involvement in international talks with Iran, which Riyadh regards as its chief rival in the region.

A source close to Saudi policy makers told Reuters: “Prince Bandar told [European] diplomats that he plans to limit interaction with the US. This happens after the US failed to take any effective action on Syria and Palestine. Relations with the US have been deteriorating for a while, as Saudi feels that the US is growing closer to Iran.”

And “the shift away from the US is a major one. Saudi doesn’t want to find itself any longer in a situation where it is dependent.” Prince Bandar also warned that there would be wide-ranging consequences, including on purchases of US arms and on oil sales.

The longstanding US-Saudi alliance has rested on the assumption that Saudi Arabia would supply oil and purchase American arms in return for a US guarantee of security for the autocratic Saudi monarchy. The Reuters article suggested that Riyadh might also scale back its purchase of US bonds and other dollar-denominated assets. “All options are on the table now, and for sure there will be some impact,” the source said.

A Wall Street Journal article pointed to another recent source of Saudi bitterness. When asked by Riyadh for details of US plans to defend Saudi oil production during a US attack on Syria, “Americans told them US ships wouldn’t be able to fully protect the oil region.” Dissatisfied with the response, “the Saudis told the US that they were open to alternatives to their longstanding defense partnership, emphasizing that they would look for good weapons at good prices, whatever the source.” (Saudi Officials Vent Anger Over US Failure to Attack Syria, globalresearch.ca, 10.25.2013)

This important development in the US-Saudi relationship  is just like the US-Iran ‘partnership’ on the Syrian crisis issue. One – soon to part ways while the other one (US-Iran) is on the same road with the United Nations to resolve the crisis in Syria.

Some pundits even suggested that the anger of the Saudi regime might be the way for the Kingdom to turn to China. Far out? Hmmm… possible for the old adage that the enemy of my enemy ( now) could be my friend. Why not?

But as Victor Kotsev wrote in his article - Rebels offer Assad a comeback: “Right now the possibility of a Western intervention has all but evaporated: US-Iranian negotiations have taken the front seat, and such an adventure would put paid to any possible accord. In the foreseeable future, moreover, deepening Russian involvement in Syria could be a guarantee of sorts for Assad's tenure.

William Polk, a top former US analyst and a member of the Cuban Missile Crisis management team, estimated in a recent analysis that the US-Russian agreement over the Syrian chemical weapons would eventually involve some "5-10 thousand Russians and perhaps twice that number of UN-designated peacekeeping forces from third world countries." Polk added, "With a Russian force in residence and forced to protect its widely scattered personnel and a significant UN peacekeeping force interspersed among the Russians, the government can to some degree discount external aggression."

Officially, Moscow is tight-lipped about any such plans, but it is already deeply involved in Syria and even the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization hinted recently that Russia would assist more actively there.

Still, the hard-core international supporters of the rebels, such as Saudi Arabia, are not giving up either. The fight is likely to be long and no less brutal than it has already been. In an interview with Foreign Policy magazine, Syria expert Joshua Landis estimated that the recent decision by the Saudis to reject their seat at the UN Security Council was meant to deflect pressure on them to change their course.

As the world awaits for the next move in the said crisis, divisions inside and outside Washington is getting deeper. But as perceived by the rest of the world, such deadlock on the Syrian crisis is a sign that there would be peace… for the meantime. Yes for a while, for the world war scenario is already programmed. It can be delayed but it will push through whether we like it or not.

Monday, October 21, 2013


By Erick San Juan

The coming self-destruction of humankind may well be only a minor prelude to a grand finale for the planet. Could a mega-nuclear blast at a geological pressure point like Fukushima puncture the Earth’s brittle crust and release a
flow of hot liquefied minerals from the mantle?

This is such a grim scenario for the world to witness after the March 11, 2011 Fukushima Daichi nuclear power plant disaster in Japan that even the corporate mainstream media are too afraid to discuss. Nuclear engineers and scientists believe that “the rising level of tritium measured in kelp samples south of the Fukushima 1 nuclear site is an indicator of intensifying nuclear reactions deep in the soil below the cracked reactors. Following the meltdowns in spring 2011, superheated fuel rods in up to three reactors have penetrated multiple barriers including the core shrouds, containment chambers and concrete foundations, escaping into the porous ground. Now inaccessible and scattered underground, the remnant fuel is getting hot enough to create huge flows of deuterium and radioactive tritium, which are commonly known as heavy water.

Two serious threats are emerging during this tritium build-up: medical effects of exposure to beta particles on top of gamma radiation from the Fukushima releases and more ominous, the possibility of a tritium-deuterium fusion reaction that triggers a plutonium blast more powerful than the 2011 explosion at Reactor 3.” (Source: Rising Tritium Could Trigger Huge Fukushima Blasts by Yoichi Shimatsu)

Another fact pointed out by Shimatsu is that the Fukushima nuclear plants rest atop the Abukuma block, a mega-sheet of bedrock uplifted by the subduction of the Pacific plate under the Okhotsk plate. Inside the impact zone, both plates are cracking under enormous pressure, which heats the rock into magma and causes volcanic activity in the region.

The hundreds of tons of escaped nuclear fuel beneath the Fukushma No.1 plant exceeds the combined weight of all fissile material in nuclear-weapons testing to date. If this melting mass of uranium and plutonium were to explode, the seams in the tectonic plates could be blown apart, unloosing rivers of magma onto the Earth’s surface. A vast cloud of radioactive particles, toxic gases, sulfur and industrial waste would encircle the globe with more deadly
consequences than the 1883 Krakatoa eruption.. The human species, a parasite dependant on other life-forms and vulnerable to oxygen depletion, will be among the first to go extinct.

A clear self-destruction but obviously triggered by nature which snowballed into a global catastrophe as studied by experts on the field that this is uncontainable, clearly a continuing nuclear disaster. ENE News reported that Kyoto University's Okada Norio, Yoshio Kajitani, Hirokazu Tatano and Beijing University's Tao Ye and Peijun Shi said that radioactive isotopes released from Fukushima were detected in North America and other regions in the world. The polluted water released by the Tokyo Electric Power Company wll likely affect the entire Pacific Ocean in the coming decades.

From a layman’s point of view, this nuclear disaster is not only contaminating the earth’s mantle but penetrated beyond the earth’s surface and worst, the earth’s largest body of water – the Pacific Ocean. It is very clear that both land and water are now at risk to be contaminated by nuclear radiation that is slowly creating a possible extinction scenario to all life forms in the offing.

May it be religious or scientific viewpoint, there seems to be a consensus that the final days of civilization is fast coming to an end. The efforts to halt or slow down the uncontainable disaster were all in vain. The need for concerted
effort from experts all over the world is badly needed and time is of the essence to reduce the scope of the affected area.

Whether we like it or not, humankind is threatened by the biggest disaster in world’s history,and a total earth change is inevitable, an event that did not come from known environmentalists and global warming advocates.

This is the reality that the present civilization must face and find solutions fast or face extinction. As what the Japanese Professors said in their assessment –
Fukushima has reached the worst case scenario  - a ‘world-ends-scenario’. God forbid!

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Not So Comfort Women by Erick San Juan

"Never in the history of mankind have so many owed so much to so few."
-------------Sir Winston Churchill----------

And this ‘few’ comfort women still seeking justice and acknowledgement for the wrongdoing inflicted on them from 1910 to 1945 by the Japanese soldiers, they are the victims of war crimes of the Second World War.

For the few comfort women like the mother of my former nanny, who are still alive today, with the average age of 88 are still fighting, hoping that justice will be given to them before they die.

From the detailed article by C. Sarah Soh, Japan's Responsibility Toward Comfort Women Survivors – “The euphemism "comfort women" (ianfu) was coined by imperial Japan to refer to young females of various ethnic and national backgrounds and social circumstances who were forced to offer sexual services to the Japanese troops before and during the Second World War. Some were minors sold into brothels; others were deceptively recruited by middlemen; still others were forcibly abducted. Estimates of the number of comfort women range between 50,000 and 200,000. It is believed that most were Korean.

The question of the wartime forced recruitment of Korean women as ianfu was first raised in the Japanese National Diet in June 1990 as a result of the women's movement in South Korea. The first class-action suit by Korean ex-comfort women was filed against the Japanese government in December 1991, on the eve of the 50th anniversary of Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor. Since 1992, Korean and Japanese women leaders, as well as ex-comfort women and legal experts, have persuaded international organizations, including the United Nations, to conduct a series of hearings and formal investigations into the matter. In her 1998 U.N. report on contemporary forms of slavery, Gay McDougall recommended among other things that Japan pay state compensation to the "individual `comfort women'" and prosecute all those responsible for the comfort system who remain
alive today.”

And in the latest appeal (October 11) this year by South Korea’s gender equality and family minister at the human rights panel of the United Nations General Assembly, the minister has raised the issue of women used as sex slaves by the wartime Japanese military.

Although Minister Cho Yoon-sun did not specifically name Japan, she called on “the responsible government” to apologize and take responsible measures in her speech at the assembly’s Third Committee, which oversees social and humanitarian affairs.

With the advancement of women on the committee’s agenda, Cho devoted a substantial portion of her address to the issue of the “comfort women,” as Japan euphemistically refers to its wartime sex slaves.

This is the third year in a row that South Korea has taken up the issue at the committee. Last year, however, it was only briefly cited.

Cho said more than 100,000 women were forced to work at brothels run by the Imperial Japanese military but “only 56 still live amongst us.”

Minister Cho added that the issue of comfort women is not a matter of the past, it is now an urgent task for the international community to give their attention to and support in order to put this problem behind us.
But on the other side, with the Japanese government, the increasingly ultra-nationalistic statements are proclaimed not by Japanese marginal politicians, but by members of the ruling establishment. These include a comment of the chairman of the political council of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party S.Takaiti, who called  into question the appropriateness of an official apology of T. Murayama administration in 1995, which acknowledged the Japan’s entry into the path of war was a political mistake and expressed remorse and apologized for the suffering brought by Japanese aggression to the residents of many Asian countries.

According to Takaiti, Japan’s action were justified at that time because it “fought for its own survival.” In addition, the head of political council of the Liberal Democratic Party expressed solidarity with the previous thesis of Prime Minister Abe, that the use of term “aggression” in the context of T.Murayama’s statement seems inappropriate, as there is no consensus about its interpretation in the scientific community.

After the remarks about the feasible use of the term “aggression” in T.Murayama’s statement, the Japanese Prime Minister continued playing with the notions and said that he would also reject to use the term “invasion” with regard to Japan.

Another shocking statement was done by the leader of the Renaissance Party of Japanese parliament -T. Hashimoto, who believes that the institutions of “comfort women” was a “natural phenomenon” and was necessary for the “rest of Japanese soldiers between battles.”  Previously. Hashimoto notices that there was no evidence that “comfort women” were concussed by force or threat to prostitution.

In line with the above statements, a suggestion is proposed by the head of the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers E.Sua in January this year “to conduct an expert assessment, whether his predecessor E.Kano in 1993 had a right to apologize for the “immeasurable pain”, which hurt women from neighboring Asian countries, being sex slaves”.

Attempts of some high-ranking Japanese politicians to deny obvious facts of the past, which cannot be understood even in modern Germany having similar shameful pages in its history, should not be left without an adequate response. We need to continue working consistently to achieve sincere and unconditional apologies from Japan for the sins of its past. Time is running out on the remaining victims of war atrocities. The Japanese government must act fast. The shameful past done by their military will always haunt them even in the generations to come.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Not So Perfect Alibi? By Erick San Juan

Different speculations  came out as to why US President Barack Obama did not attend the important summits together with his Asian tour particularly in the ASEAN nations. Some pundits believe that the so-called partial US government shutdown was not the real reason.  And the situation became more suspicious when even US Secretary of State John Kerry also cancelled his visit to the Philippines ‘due to bad weather.’(kuno)

The mere fact that this visit of President Obama and/or Sec. Kerry to the region  particularly to its allies is very crucial to US pivot to Asia, one will wonder – was the sudden change of travel plans of both Obama and Kerry has something to do with China? Is the Chinese pressure so strong that such important plan had to be cancelled?  Just asking because both alibis seemed quite shallow.

As what Manong Ernie Maceda said in his column at the Philippine Star last week– “the cancellation of US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Manila because of storm “Santi” shows the low priority that the Philippines has with US officials. Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) was open. No flights were cancelled. The storm was coming in from Catanduanes, while the flight path from Brunei is through Mindanao.  Kerry’s visit was supposed to substitute for President Obama’s state visit. It should have gone through at all costs.”

Yes, at all costs, that is why the excuse he gave was not valid at all.

We have to consider also the statement of President BS Aquino at the APEC about the Philippines-US Framework Agreement on Increased Rotational Presence. It was reported that PNoy said the United States (US) should be clear with the words they use concerning the said agreement.

“During negotiations, we always get entangled with all the semantics. Those words that are actually used to convey the thoughts.”

He said the words to be used in the agreement on increased rotational presence should “satisfy both parties needs and wants; and satisfy all or addresses all concerns and anxieties.”

“Their language is geared to support the request for budget when they go to Congress,” the President pointed out. “Their language might be perfect in an American manner of speaking English but might be construed differently through a Filipino.” (Source: Aquino presses careful crafting of US rotational presence deal by Roy Mabasa mb.com 10.9.13)

If PNoy felt this urgency to discuss this executive agreement that entails another pact that will make the country beholden to a perceived master in the offing, it is very clear that our relationship with Uncle Sam is one way. So Manong Ernie is right, we are being given low priority by these US officials.

This is the sad reality I have been saying for so many times now, these so-called agreements/treaties we entered into with Uncle Sam are always for the benefit of their country than ours and in the process we are always shortchanged. When are we going to learn to assert our rights as a sovereign nation?

This is not a simple matter that we just have to ignore and let Washington craft the agreement on their own liking. This is about national security and most of all our sovereignty (what was left of it) is at stake here.

In the four rounds of talks that transpired regarding the access agreement, there are "gaps" in the "critical provisions" that need "more work," according to Defense Undersecretary Pio Lorenzo Batino, who heads the Philippine panel.

The military-to-military agreement is expected to boost the defense capability of the AFP amid growing territorial threats, increase the training of its troops, and improve disaster response.

Batino said they have narrowed down the framework agreement to 5 key provisions namely: scope, agreed installations/AFP Facilities, prepositioning of defense equipment, supplies, and materiel, ownership and security. (Source: Bases access: PH, US disagree on 'critical provisions' by Carmela Fonbuena, rappler.com)

Now that the chance for our President and other government officials to tackle the crucial decisions covering the new access agreement was postponed (to who knows when), methinks that this pact is already a done deal on Washington’s side for their Congress to release the budget, and will left us (again) to just accept it with open legs, as usual. So, what else is new? And don’t forget  (as Reuters reported last October 3), also on the cards is the development of Oyster Bay, which lies about 550 km (340 miles) southwest of Manila.

"It will be a mini-Subic," Commodore Joseph Rostum O. Peña, the commander  of the Philippines' western navy, said in the first public comments about converting Oyster Bay into a major naval base.

"A future port here would extend the reach of the navy's two frigates, both former U.S. Coast Guard cutters, over the disputed Spratly Islands, in the southern part of the South China Sea." he said in an interview from his office overlooking the mouth of the bay.

Oyster Bay is about 160 km (100 miles) from the Spratlys.

"In Manila, the leaders must move behind rhetorical blandishments about a new spirit of partnership and start to detail specific actions that will strengthen Philippine defense capabilities," said Patrick Cronin, an Asia-Pacific
security expert at the Center for a New American Security in Washington DC. That includes building a permanent home for the Philippines' two big warships. It also means finding strategic areas where the United States could rotate troops, ships and naval aircraft — all within easy reach of territory claimed by Beijing. Oyster Bay may be the best choice," said Cronin.

After reading this, the access agreement is already a done deal, to hell with the other critical provisions that we wanted to further discuss with Washington.

Need we say more?

Monday, October 7, 2013

Dysfunctional Power by Erick San Juan

Dysfunctional Power by Erick San Juan

The latest superpower dysfunctional spectacular, aka the US shutdown, has forced US President Barack Obama to cancel an entire Asian trip. First, the White House announced Obama was shutting down the Philippines then Malaysia, supposed stars of the "pivoting to Asia". Then it was finally confirmed, he was also shutting down the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Bali on Tuesday and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and East Asia summit next Thursday in Brunei. That leaves Chinese President Xi Jinping to bask, unrivaled, in center stage glow.  (Source: China: We don't do shutdowns by Pepe Escobar, 10/04/13)

President Barack Obama missed the chance of engaging hands-on with the countries in the region in his re-balancing policy which concerns China and in pushing further his “already infamous Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with Malaysia which is actually perceived as a corporate 'racket' that is a great deal for US multinationals but not exactly for Asian interests. TPP is the American answer to China boosting its already massive business ties all over Asia”. (Ibid)

And as for the Philippines, the government and those kowtowing to Uncle Sam’s whims were all disappointed for the cancellation of Obama’s visit. But this does not mean that the greater access agreement to the country’s military bases will not push through because the Pentagon is still very much in tune with its pivot to Asia.

China in the center stage

So, in the absence of Washington’s head, in the end it was left to Xi to stage yet another Southeast Asian triumph. Beijing may offer Kuala Lumpur a wealth of investment without pesky TPP-style interference on how the country runs its state-owned enterprises or how it dispenses government contracts. And on top of it, Xi got a personal shot at trying to get Malaysia on his side in the negotiations about the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.

President Xi Jinping actually accomplished a lot in the absence of his ‘rival’ in the region and once again used its soft power operation in the process. As what Pepe Escobar cited, Xi became the first foreign leader ever to address the Indonesian parliament in Jakarta. He stressed that Beijing wanted by all means to boost trade with ASEAN to a whopping US$1 trillion by 2020 and establish a regional infrastructure bank.

His message, in a nutshell: China and "certain Southeast Asian countries" must solve their wrangling over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights "peacefully". As in, we will discuss that messy South China Sea situation (he made no direct reference to it in his speech) but don't let that interfere with our doing serious business in trade and investment. Who is ASEAN to say no?

Beijing has already agreed to discuss a legally binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea with ASEAN. A working group met last month in Suzhou. Four of the 10-member ASEAN (but not Indonesia) are involved in the South China Sea dispute - which, predictably enough, is all about unexplored oil and gas wealth. The Philippines will keep accusing Beijing, as it did last month, of violating  for the moment the informal Code of Conduct. Indonesia has volunteered as mediator. It won't be a rose garden, but the fact is China and ASEAN are already talking.

Beijing has scored yet another milestone in its soft power and peaceful rise in the region sans Washington’s leader. Although some pundits say that China now owns America (already?). And that “in the future, China will employ millions of American workers and dominate thousands of small communities all over the United States. Chinese acquisition of U.S. businesses, set a new all-time record last year and it is on pace to shatter that record this year.

The Smithfield Foods acquisition is an example.  Smithfield Foods is the largest pork producer and processor in the world. It has facilities in 26 U.S. states and it employs tens of thousands of Americans.  It directly owns  460 farms and has contracts with approximately 2,100 others.  But now a Chinese company has bought it for $ 4.7 billion, and that means that the Chinese will now be the most important employer in dozens of rural communities all over the U. S.

Thanks in part to our massively bloated trade deficit with China, the Chinese have trillions of dollars to spend. They are only just starting to exercise their economic muscle.

It is important to keep in mind that there is often not much of a difference between “the Chinese government” and “Chinese corporations”.  In 2011, 43 percent of all profits in China were produced by companies where the Chinese government had a controlling interest in. 

Last year a Chinese company spent $2.6 billion to purchase AMC entertainment – one of the largest movie theater chains in the United States.  Now that Chinese company controls more movie ticket sales than anyone else in the world. 

But China is not just relying on acquisitions to expand its economic power. “Economic beachheads” are being established all over America. For example, Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube Group, Inc. recently broke ground on a $100 million plant in Thomasville, Alabama.  Many of the residents of Thomasville, Alabama will be glad to have jobs. It will also become yet another community that will now be heavily dependent on communist China.

And the list goes on and on… When you total up all imports and exports, China is now the number one trading nation on the entire planet. Overall, the U.S. has run a trade deficit with China over the past decade that comes to more than 2.3 trillion dollars. China has more foreign currency reserves than anyone else on the planet. It now has the largest new car market in the entire world. China also produces more than twice as many automobiles as the United States does. After being bailed out by U.S. taxpayers, GM is involved in 11 joint ventures with Chinese companies. China is now the number one gold producer in the world. It also produces more than 90 percent of the global supply of rare earth elements. And China is now the number one supplier of components that are critical to the operation of any national defense system.

Just to sum it all up, while the US does shutdowns, China does business.

This is just part of the big picture. We have to gather our act together and have a reality check that to engage militarily with China is really suicidal. In our local lingo-"KWARTA O KAHON?"

Monday, September 30, 2013

US Supremacy, A Hubris

US Supremacy, A Hubris
 By Erick San Juan

PNAC - Project for the New American Century was a neo-conservative think tank (1997 to 2006) that had strong ties to the American Enterprise Institute. PNAC's web site said it was "established in the spring of 1997" as "a non-profit, educational organization whose goal is to promote American global leadership." PNAC's policy document, "Rebuilding America's Defenses," openly advocated for total global military domination.

The centerpiece of this operation clearly manifests the move to dominate sovereign nations by force through military intervention. And it was carried out successfully after the ‘terrorists attack’ in September 11, 2001. Since then the pattern for regime change has been to help nations to unseat leaders who are anti-democracy. Such countries were categorized as part of the Axis of Evil, Rogue States and Arc of Crisis.

And since 9-11, Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network of terrorists has been conveniently used as the culprit for several acts of terror worldwide. To think even after his so-called capture and death, his terror group al-Qaeda is still very much alive up to this day for obvious reason. I have written a lot about this so-called global war on terror and the resurrected bin Laden to keep the program going, meaning to finance the military-industrial-complex by creating a bogus enemy (bogeyman) thus escalating a strategy of fear, presto an arms race in the process.

What former President George 'Dubya' Bush has started, it has been continued by the present US head –President Barack Obama. But we can see that the netizens worldwide are vigilant and helped in exposing lies, deception (a.k.a. chubibo) and doublespeak of the neo-cons and warmongers from the Bush era and were absorbed by the present US leadership.

The mere fact that Obama’s plan to attack Syria was halted by cooler heads especially at the United Nations Security Council, and as what Dr.Paul Craig Roberts said that the PNAC’s program was defeated when the overthrow of the Syrian government was aborted. For now…

Dr. Roberts believes that from this time on, US and its PNAC – world domination operation is still in place and what the rest of the world should watch out for is another false flag operation in the offing that will justify the use of force to overthrow a sovereign nation’s leader.

According to Alex Jones and Dr. Roberts in its September 24 radio show online, this policy of conquest of the Obama regime is hubristic and is not helping the rest of the American populace in projecting its image as a country espousing democracy.

In the words of Dr. Roberts in his article - Washington’s Tyranny: What is the Real Agenda of Obama’s “War on Terror”?, he wrote : Hubris and arrogance have run away with the “superpower.”  The US stands reviled by the world. At the UN summit on September 23, the president of Brazil denounced the Obama regime for its “breach of international law” revealed by the spy scandal. Bolivian President Evo Morales is filing a lawsuit against the Obama regime for “crimes against humanity.”

When the world looks at Washington, it cannot differentiate Washington from the dictatorships that Washington attributes to other countries. The Washington regime has declared that it is above both law and Constitution and possesses the power to detain citizens indefinitely and to murder them without due process of law.  These powers comprise the necessary and sufficient conditions for dictatorship.”

In the midst of all of this, Uncle Sam has to maintain its soft power operation especially among its allies, for alliance is an important prerequisite in the overstretched war on terror. To check its supremacy, the much talked about pivot to Asia-Pacific region has to be maintained through diplomacy and cooperation and that is why President Obama have to be visible in several meetings and summits among nations in this region.

This October, starting with the APEC meeting, then the ASEAN conference and also the East Asia Summit among others. that the US president should attend in order to justify its commitment to its pivot in the region. And at the same time a reminder that the big brother is very much in the region to 'help' its little brothers so to speak.

Here in the country, the much-talked about Obama visit next week is something to watch out for because I am pretty sure that after this visit, the country will again be Uncle Sam’s military outpost in the region – officially.

Remember, like the hero in classical tragedy, excessive pride and ambition could lead to one’s downfall.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

We have to be vigilant.

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Phony Relationship by Erick San Juan

Phony Relationship by Erick San Juan

When former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke at the East-West center in Hawaii in October 2010, she emphasized three key elements of the US engagement in Asia. The US’s relationship with its allies, their relations with partners across the Asia pacific region and US participation in the region’s multilateral institutions such as the ASEAN, APEC and EAS. (Source: China vs US: Military Conflict in the South China Sea, The World Outline)

Since then, there has been much talk of the mighty Uncle Sam’s return to Asia-Pacific region and even referred to himself (President Barack Obama) as ‘America’s first Pacific President’ without even consulting first his history books of America’s past leaders who deserves the title better.

With so much rhetoric and doublespeak of the real intentions of this pivot to the region, the truth of the matter is, they never left. “They have maintained a forward military, political and economic presence in Asia as well as Europe since the Second World War. In short, they have pursued a political and economic open door policy underpinned by the ability to project force outside their own western hemisphere” (Ibid). And in this case, the classic example of what I am trying to emphasize here is the US military presence in the Philippines.

The mere fact that the strategic location of our country is one of the reasons why Uncle Sam just can’t afford to leave the country as its military outpost. Our leaders did not use this as leverage to gain better treatment as a long-time ally.

We have to gather our act together as a sovereign nation and assert what is rightfully ours. For every concession or treaties that we opt to negotiate so that we will not be left shortchanged in the process.

Access Agreement

That is why in the midst of the crisis in the south, the ongoing talks regarding the framing of the access agreement (executive agreement) between the Philippines and the United States has raised some questions from the progressive group led by Bayan Muna party-list Rep. Neri Colmenares. He asked, “Why are the talks being held in the Pentagon and not here in Manila? It is the US government that is asking for a favor so the talks should be held here in Manila. Or is it because they are brow beating Philippine negotiators there in

Washington DC? From all indications, what is happening is not a negotiation but Philippine officials getting instructions from US defense officials on what they want and how to explain it to the wary Filipino people,” he said.

He added that another possible reason why the talks are being held in Washington is that both governments “are afraid of mass actions and mobilizations of nationalist and progressive groups opposed to this new agreement.” He reiterated that all negotiations on increasing the presence of US soldiers in the country should be held in Manila and be open to the public. (Source: Philippine Star online)

Even without this new access agreement, our country is being used by Uncle Sam’s troops in different ‘military exercises’ may it be on air, sea or land annually via the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and its mother treaty, the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). And ,whether we like it or not, these US forces are already ‘visiting’ the country on rotational basis and they have installed three lily-pad bases in the south for these special operation forces. So why the recent denial of the State Department? What else is new? For whom are the military exercises?

Last September 18, PHIBLEX started and will last for three weeks (21 days), I wonder why this year’s RP-US Amphibious Landing Exercise is longer than the previous year by nine days. Suspiciously it will end in October just in time for the visit of US President Barack Obama. Hmmm… Is there something in the offing that they are not telling us?

What could be the real agenda of Uncle Sam in staging military exercises with us (and with its other allies in the region) guise as rebalancing China’s military power in the region. Last August 16, China's defense minister, Gen. Chang Wanquan, arrived in Hawaii for a series of high-level meetings with U.S. military officials which also included the first-ever visit by a major Beijing official to North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD)? Gen. Chang

Wanquan also had a meeting with Adm. Samuel Locklear, head of the Pacific Command. Added to this is the joint US-China military exercises in Hawaii that started in September 7.

Some pundits believe that the ongoing US-China relations projected by its military-to-military enhancement is not at all helping the countries in the Asia-Pacific region particularly claimants in the disputed areas in the East and South China Sea. The rumor that Washington and Beijing has literally divided the Pacific amongst themselves is now coming true. As a loyal ally, we have to rethink our relationship with either friend or foe. Simply monitoring is not enough. We have to make decisions that will bring back our dignity as a sovereign state and not just a slave kowtowing to a perceived master.               

Wake up!

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Pivot in Asia Part 2

A little over a year now when Russia hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in its Pacific port of Vladivostok.  Back then. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled that Moscow’s interest in Asia is rising as the traditional market for its energy and raw materials—the euro zone—wallows in crisis and stagnation. And After America’s much-ballyhooed “pivot to Asia,” it is now Russia’s turn. (Source: Russia's Pivot to Asia? by Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.)

Why not, given the following statistics Russia can rebalance the two ‘superpowers’ in the Asia-Pacific region – United States and China. To wit: Russia produces more oil and natural gas than anyone else on the planet and because of this Russia is the number two oil exporter in the world and supplies 34 percent of Europe’s natural gas needs.

Since Vladimir Putin first became president of Russia, the Russian economy has grown at a very rapid pace.  The following is from Wikipedia…

Under the presidency of Vladimir Putin Russia’s economy saw the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) double, climbing from 22nd to 11th largest in the world. The economy made real gains of an average 7% per year (1999: 6.5%, 2000: 10%, 2001: 5.7%, 2002: 4.9%, 2003: 7.3%, 2004: 7.2%, 2005: 6.4%, 2006: 8.2%, 2007: 8.5%, 2008: 5.2%), making it the 6th largest economy in the world in GDP(PPP). In 2007, Russia’s GDP exceeded that of 1990, meaning it has overcome the devastating consequences of the recession in the 1990s.

During Putin’s eight years in office, the industry grew by 75%, investments increased by 125%, and agricultural production and construction increased as well. Real incomes more than doubled and the average salary increased eightfold from $80 to $640. The volume of consumer credit between 2000–2006 increased 45 times, and during that same time period, the middle class grew from 8 million to 55 million, an increase of 7 times. The number of people living below the poverty line also decreased from 30% in 2000 to 14% in 2008.

According to Bloomberg, Russia has added 570 metric tons of gold to their reserves over the past decade.  In the United States, nobody seems to be quite sure how much gold the Federal Reserve actually has left.

And when it comes to military power? Yes, the United States is the most powerful military on the planet, but Russia is reportedly in the second place. But given the following, US and China has to rethink their positions in the field of military hardware and technology - Russia has allegedly introduced a new “near silent” nuclear submarine which is far more quiet than anything the U.S. has.

The Borey Class submarine, dubbed Vladimir Monomakh, has a next generation nuclear reactor, can dive deeper than 1,200 feet, and carries up to 20 nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).

Each of these “Bulava” ICBM’s can carry ten detachable MIRV warheads, what they call “re-entry vehicles,” capable of delivering 150 kiloton yields per warhead.

So, while Obama is gradually reducing its military budget, Vladimir Putin is working hard to modernize Russian nuclear forces. And on top of this, Russian missile forces will hold more than 200 drills during the second half of 2013.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made headlines all over the world when he climbed into the cockpit of Russia’s new “fifth generation” fighter jet and announced that it was far superior to the F-22 Raptor.

And last but not the least, It is estimated that Russia has more spies inside the United States today than it did at any point during the Cold War. (Source: Russia by Michael Snyder, Economic Collapse Blog August 8, 2013)

Now Russia has every right to turn to Asia-Pacific region and neutralize the growing arms race in the midst of brewing tensions in the contested waters in the East and South China Sea.

In the case of the Philippines, it is perceived by pundits that this is the right opportunity to rekindle our ties with Russia in all aspects. The not-so-good image we have been projecting for quite some time now as Uncle Sam’s doormat in this part of the globe should now be put in the past as a bad part in our history.

It is about time that our nation’s leaders must put the best interests of the Filipinos when forging an alliance with another country. History has taught us better and we must learn from past mistakes in order not to repeat it.

Our alliance with the United States has its ups and downs and the fact that we are the inferior nation, the treatment that we got from the big brother was and always be lopsided. Sadly. we allowed this to happen for so many years and our leaders (mostly collaborators) permitted the white masters to shortchanged  us despite the fact that we have been loyal to Uncle Sam all these years.

Like the suggestion in the editorial of the Business Mirror (September 12, 2013), Our friendship with Washington, however, should not prevent us from attempting to deepen our relationship with another world power—Russia—especially since there were attempts at this in the past. In 1813 then-Tsar Alexander I endorsed the idea of establishing relations with Southeast Asian countries in an attempt to secure food and raw materials for the Russian Far East. In 1817 the Russians sent its first diplomatic mission to Manila and established its first consulate here.

In the mid-1970s, at the height of the Cold War, then-President Ferdinand E. Marcos sought to build ties with what was then called the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, fearing that waning American involvement in the Vietnam War would reduce the Philippines’s significance as a US ally. He dispatched his aide-de-camp, then Maj. Jose Almonte, to India, where he was endorsed by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. From there, Almonte flew to Moscow to establish diplomatic relations. These ties are now over 35 years old.

Let us not waste our time and resources, this is the right moment of re-establishing our ties with Russia and other nations who could be of help to us. And hopefully be given the proper treatment as long as our leaders will always put the nation’s interests first before their pockets. Remember that we have to show respect to ourselves as a sovereign nation so that other countries will respect us in return.

 "Quid pro quo."

Tuesday, September 10, 2013


By Erick San Juan

The recent breathtaking decision to attack Syria with or without congressional authorization has left the rest of the world at the edge of their seats like watching a suspense thriller. And at the G20 meeting, US President Barack Obama has stubbornly pressed on the decision to push through with the military attack on Syria amidst the opposition of powerful countries like China and Russia among others.

With these developments, a lot has raised their eyebrows and asked, why the hell did he receive the Nobel Peace Prize for? Just like what he said, he is unworthy of the award, duh? So much for the rhetoric, nations in the Asia-Pacific region where the mighty big brother promised to re-balance its resources in these countries, not just militarily (but also in economic undertakings like the much-hyped Trans-Pacific Partnership program), are now wondering. With the crisis in Syria, how could the Obama balance its act between the two sides of Asia? To think, the much-hyped US pivot to Asia-Pacific has created more tension than finding peaceful resolution to the disputed areas in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Asean now should rethink its position with Washington whose hands are already full with crisis after crisis in the Middle East plus some ‘unfinished business.’

Like what Michael Auslin (a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and columnist at the Wall Street Journal) wrote “while the Administration was claiming a new era in U.S. foreign policy, the ghosts of crises past continue to disturb Mr. Obama's dreams. Renewed violence in Iraq and the complexities of not losing all gains in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2014 were perhaps highest on the list of unfinished business. Yet more concerning were the brewing crises: Iran's continued pursuit of nuclear weapons and the bloody Syrian civil war.” (Obama Pivots to Syria From Asia, WSJ online)

What will happen now to the US pivot to Asia-Pacific?

Auslin further explained that – “The real world intrusions of failing U.S. diplomacy spell trouble for Mr. Obama's pivot in two crucial ways. First, as the decade-plus of war on terror showed, even a U.S. military with massive war funding needed to pull in troops and materiel from all around the globe. For years, U.S. commanders and senior leaders of Pacific Command had to send sailors and airmen to the Middle East, along with ships and planes. Privately, they would talk about how difficult that made keeping up their own missions after several years.”

And, “second, Mr. Obama is fond of saying that his pivot to Asia is not about containing China; he wants to use it, so he says, to help create better relations with Beijing. Well, the Chinese leadership has been unhappy about the rebalance from the beginning, seeing it precisely as a way to encircle China with new U.S. partnerships. The fact that Mr. Obama is now at odds with China over Syria gives the impression that the Chinese were right all along—China is increasingly at odds with America's strategic goals.”

By focusing much on Syria, obviously Obama has forgotten his so-called commitment to the countries in the region and created another reason to be at odds with both Russia and China.

The Syrian card has pushed the limits of Washington now that his so divided attention are scattered and actually fighting so many fronts. The American foreign policy now in question as how to handle both allies and competitors alike in fulfilling its commitments.

On top of all these, the US military attack in Syria will only show that the Americans never learn from history, the recent past has shown their failures in Iraq and Afghanistan so why repeat the same policy? And the overstretched global war on terror? It is so overstretched that this final pull in the Syrian crisis might be the last, because when it snaps a global war will surely erupts, whether we like it or not.