Tuesday, March 31, 2015

World War is for Real by Erick San Juan

World War is for Real by Erick San Juan

If we do the unthinkable -- and allow another world war to erupt -- there won't be any winners, everybody on the planet will lose.

The war that everyone fears we are moving inexorably toward could not be a protracted war of attrition as WWII was. It would rapidly escalate into a brutal exchange of missiles, of aerial battles between US and Russian jet fighters, of US-NATO aircraft carriers and battleships sending sorties to fire rockets and drop bombs on Russia, Iran and Syria.

The global economy is not what it was leading up to WWII. In fact, it is nearly the opposite. The US and Europe had very little debt going into that war. They emerged with huge levels of it when it was over.

If a global war breaks out it will quickly bankrupt the world and send the global economy into a depression. People seem to think that America can wage another war right on top of two wars with impunity. But those two wars already had a large hand in ratcheting up the national debt to $18.1 trillion and counting. (Source: Are we on the brink of World War III? by Will Hart)

In the above-mentioned scenario, World War III will be quick but deadlier with the use of modern war materiel and the use of advance and sophisticated military technology due to man’s search for much deadlier weapons.

Unfortunately, we are in the brink of the next global war as we are witness to the forging of alliances again via economic and military development, and our country is one of them. Through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), Uncle Sam’s pivot to Asia will materialize as we accept hundreds of US troops in rotational basis to all our existing military camps.

The so-called military modernization is not given but we bought refurbished military hardware from the US and in effect we are doing them a favor as they decommissioned their old military ships, we buy them and upgrade them with additional cost for us. The US needed money in order to support their overheating economy, it’s the military-industrial complex that is profiting from arms race and the if ever the impending world war, no thanks to our corrupt politicians who will never get what's due us.

Will Hart is right – “the US is already imitating Japan of the 1990s and the imitation will only get more real. In the event of a full-scale war, congress would be faced with slashing social security -- and other safety net programs - as well as raising taxes... poison pills indeed.

America already has 50 million people on food stamps, many of them employed in low paying jobs or working part-time. A prudent politician might worry that all this is a recipe for social unrest.

What the FED and the Japanese and Euro central banks have proven so far is that they can print money, but not stimulate their economies. After 6 years of running the printing presses nonstop the global economy is deflating into a recession.

At this inopportune moment in history, suddenly the prospect of a global war rears its ugly snout. Is it not abundantly obvious that world war would only temporarily boost production and, in turn, inflation? But that would not result in net wealth-creation but in destruction and loss of life on a massive scale.”

If man will only realize how stupid it is to go into a large-scale world war, of how much it will cost, not only economically but lost of thousands of precious lives, going to war will not do any good. Or it is their only escape to save their domestic and financial problems and depopulate the world in the process.

The reality is, our historical ties with the US will do us more harm than good, whether we like it or not, we will be drag to a war not of our liking.

“Although the war is not man's nature, since man can use his own reason, instead of war and if it occurs, a population must fight on its own capacity, and not by seeking the help of others, particularly by those who accompany the general power of transnational corporations and banks, namely, G7 countries and the corresponding elite, the Albanians of Kosovo were "liberated" from Belgrade mainly by their own efforts.” - Ylli PĂ«rmeti

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Mamasapano Tragedy by Erick San Juan

Mamasapano Tragedy by Erick San Juan

The aftermath of the Mamasapano tragedy has far greater effects than the event itself as far as the PNoy administration is concern. After the release of the reports from the Board of Inquiry and the Senate, more questions were raised. Questions directed to the people in Malacanang as to the role of PNoy and the personalities in his loop. And even the role of the United States in the Oplan Exodus is being questioned and because answers from the people in the PNoy’s cabinet are vague, speculations from different sectors are raised especially from the netizens.

One such comment from the netizens is that the president is playing the US card by capturing high-valued terrorists and at the same time the Malaysian card in relation to the so-called controversial ‘secret deal’ with the MILF. Unfortunately both cards has underlying ‘agreement’  at stake. One with the US which is the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and the Bangsamoro Basic Law that will create the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity for the MILF which was perceived to have the backing of Malaysia.

Such analysis was written by Gregory Poling for the CSIS publication “Southeast Asia from Scott Circle”  (Aftermath of Botched Philippines Raid Should Concern Washington , March 19, 2015), he wrote: Both Manila and Washington have trumpeted the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement signed in April 2014 as the cornerstone of a new era in the bilateral security relationship. The agreement would see rotations of U.S. ships, planes, and personnel at Philippine bases, much as U.S. Marines have been doing in Darwin, Australia, in recent years. That rotational presence will allow greater joint training opportunities, boost Philippine capacity, and provide the United States with a forward-deployed presence to respond rapidly to crises in the region. It might also provide an additional deterrent to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, and is therefore crucial to Manila’s goal of establishing a “minimum credible defense” posture to discourage Chinese adventurism.

The defense security agreement still needs to survive a challenge before the Philippine Supreme Court. Filipino legal experts largely agree that by the strict letter of the law, the court should find the agreement constitutional. But concerns bred by the Mamasapano massacre could well feed into any concerns the justices might have about the access granted by the agreement. And with the Philippine judiciary still not an entirely apolitical institution, the weight of public pressure or opposition from influential lawmakers, especially just a year out from a presidential race, cannot be discounted.

The Mamasapano carnage could also have long-term implications for whether and to what degree the Philippines can be the security partner the United States hope it can be. The Aquino administration has made modernizing the navy and air force a top priority, recognizing that the Philippine military must look more to external threats than internal ones. The assumption that the peace process in the southern Philippines will be successful has underpinned that modernization effort. A lasting peace with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) would not resolve all of Manila’s internal security concerns—it would still have the communist New People’s Army, the Abu Sayyaf terrorist network, and several Moro splinter groups with which to contend—but it would allow a significant realignment of forces and focus.”

Is history repeating itself? How many times that Uncle Sam’s security and defense relations with our country is endangered because of some fateful events that are not expected? This time it’s different, thanks to the internet because people are much aware of what is really happening in our country. Like I always say, you cannot hide secrets for long. Through the use of the social media and the patriotic bloggers all over the worldwide web, secrets will be revealed in due time.

In the midst of the controversial passage of the BBL (aka BaBaLa),
plus the waning trust rating of the present leadership and the growing social discontent are clear signs that the administration of PNoy should listen and be sensitive enough to answer the cry of his true boss, the Pinoys.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Artificial Islands Could Lead to Real War By Erick San Juan

Artificial Islands Could Lead to Real War By Erick San Juan

In a recent interview, former Air Force officer Rep. Francisco Acedillo, now party-list representative of the Magdalo Party, showed the latest maritime surveillance photos  that revealed how China’s land reclamation is expanding to cover all the seven reefs it occupied.

After China shall have garrisoned the disputed areas in the South China Sea, Acedillo said the arbitration decision and whatever its worth legally, will be irrelevant. The arbitration case will at the end of the day prove to be a policy of no strategy. “How poorly we have prepared for an eventuality of a challenge to the occupation of our islands,” Acedillo said. (Source: China’s latest expansion to deny PH access to Ayungin shoal by Tessa Jamandre, Vera Files)

A policy of no strategy? So, what else is new? Or maybe our ‘amboy’ leaders depended too much on the big brother’s help, which is actually just a big maybe if help will arrive if ever a clash with China will happen.

The rush in the construction of permanent structures by China in the contested area in the SCS (West Philippine Sea) is in line with the decision of the arbitration case filed by our government before the international tribunal that will be released next year.

The following explains why the rush, from Katy Lee’s article at vox.com :

There's an international legal fight over what counts as rocks versus islands.

Land reclamation is not in itself illegal, and Beijing points out that it’s not alone in using this tactic — Malaysia and Vietnam have both reclaimed land in the Spratlys.

But the issue is likely to come up at a UN tribunal where the Philippines is pursuing China over the wider territorial dispute. That’s because of a distinction that seems a little ridiculous but actually turns out to matter: the difference between rocks and islands.

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the international agreement the Philippines is citing, "islands" have much more significant territorial rights than "rocks." Holders of islands gain what’s called an Exclusive Economic Zone, which infers key rights within 200 nautical miles of the coastline, including exclusive access to energy exploration.

China says the reefs it’s expanding are islands; the Philippines insists they’re a combination of rocks and "low-tide elevations," which carry fewer privileges.

As Gregory Poling (he worked for the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, which was founded by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He is a fellow with the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies and the Pacific Partners Initiative at CSIS), explains, the reason this matters is that geographical surveys in the South China Sea have traditionally been really poor. And the more China builds, the less obvious it is whether these snippets of land started off as rocks or as islands. Ingenious!

In any case, whatever the verdict at the UN, China is widely expected to ignore the results and merrily carry on with its building work.”

Actually, Beijing’s geostrategic move in the construction of military facility including a permanent aircraft carrier in the SCS is aimed in protecting its economic interests thereby creating another trade path through the US-controlled Malacca Straits.

Construction of an oil and gas pipeline across Burma and into China’s backyard and planned railway lines through Indochina are prime examples of Beijing actively creating alternative, secure trade routes.

In the South China Sea, its antics include creeping inside the 200 km exclusive economic zones, that all littoral players in the maritime dispute are entitled to – then refusing to have the disputes heard in the international courts.

“At this point, Beijing is building on almost every rock and low-tide elevation it occupies; to do any more would require pushing another claimant off a feature or occupying an unoccupied feature,” Poling said.

The synthetic islands of China in the South China Sea proved to be very beneficial to the Chinese in many aspects – a steady supply of fish and other marine life for human consumption and the great possibility of extracting oil and natural gas. Most of all, the limited freedom of navigation and communication and eventually the control of airspace through the ADIZ in the SCS.

Favorable may be the UN decision, the synthetic islands might create a real war in the offing.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Half Truths by Erick San Juan

Half Truths by Erick San Juan

From the words of the late US President Franklin D. Roosevelt – “Nothing accidental ever happens in politics.” And if ever there will be a historical account of some events that took place in a ‘miraculous way’ or accidentally in the political arena, the possibility of hiding something is high. To tell half truths of any given event in order to protect some vested interest is convenient for any writer to use.

That is why when the book Turmoil and Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State by George P. Shultz was mentioned to me (which was heard over RMN radio program of Butch Valdes), I searched on the internet on what was written in that book regarding the ouster of Marcos.

Taken from the chapter of the said book, The Philippines: Marcos v. Aquino (http://www.turmoilandtriumph.org/reaganyears/marcos_v_aquino.php), In the developing world, budding democracies can retain some authoritarian aspects. In the early 1980s, this was certainly true of the Philippines. President Ferdinand Marcos was a staunch U.S. ally and President Reagan valued him as such. Marcos was also anti-communist, which aligned with U.S.’s strategic interests. But Secretary of State George Shultz was uneasy about placing too much faith in Marcos.

“He was a shrewd politician who ruled like a monarch in the trappings of democracy,” recalls Shultz in his book Turmoil and Triumph. “He ended martial law in 1981 but retained most of the powers that it had provided him. He had established himself as staunchly pro-American and anti-Communist.” (T&T, p. 608-609)

Shultz’s discomfort with Marcos created tension between himself and President Reagan. While FM's authoritarian streak was not exactly in keeping with the American ideals Reagan so loved, the Soviet menace and concern about communist proxy states were still justifiably widespread in 1982. Reagan’s Realpolitik meant keeping Marcos close, at least for a time.

But what went wrong?

Marcos whose loyalty to the Americans is an open secret became the target of a cabal of a secret organization of world leaders, the Trilateral Commission, through its Chairman David Rockefeller and member George Shultz where Marcos had been a part of. The real mandate of the ‘commission’ was to level the playing field and return the so called 'war booties' to the country claimants. Due to the prescriptive period of the loots, Marcos made a brilliant idea and requested for a minting plant installed at the Philippine Central Bank in Quezon City. Instead of following his puppet masters, he produced his own gold bars minted and registered under the Republic of the Philippines to cover his ownership of the gold bars. With the death of Ninoy, plus the uncontrollable and ambitious Imelda, made the extraction of FM much easier.

For more detailed information on this topic, please read my books, Marcos Legacy Revisited, Raiders of the Lost Gold and Conspiracies and Controversies and know the missing link of the half truths concocted by Marcos and Imelda. If only Imelda and her children followed my advice in 1998 which was reiterated recently by Atty. Oliver Lozano, we could all have benefited from it.

Actually I'm putting a closure to the lost opportunities not only for the Marcoses but to the Filipino people in my new book, Dossiers, on who really masterminded Ninoy's assassination and why was Imelda acquitted in her New York cases despite the voluminous evidences and even returned to the Philippines by the US in spite of Cory Aquino who was the president during that time and many more.

There is so much to learn from history especially from the present leadership. Unfortunately, Philippine political setting is always woven with the ‘invisible hand’ using manipulated leaders-turned-collaborators from all levels of the government. And presently the Philippine situation is like a ticking bomb and we could be the next failed state like Afghanistan and Yemen if our silent majority and well meaning patriots will not get their act together to avert these man-made calamities created by our corrupt leaders and their business cohorts.

Filipinos should be wary and must take action if necessary as we are all being taken for a ride (chubibo) here for the nth time.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

The Next Failed State by Erick San Juan

The Next Failed State by Erick San Juan

After thirteen years, the United States has decided to reduce and eventually remove the Joint Special Operations Task Force (JSOTF) troops from Western Mindanao Command (WesMinCom) headquarters in Zamboanga City. What could be the reason behind such decision?

Actually, it was in June 27, 2014 when the US announced the scale-down of the JSOTF through Department of National Defense Sec. Voltaire Gazmin when he said that "the task force will no longer exist, but many of the capabilities will remain," under what it termed an "augmentation team". In other words, they will never leave, in fact through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) they can use our existing military camps as their camps too. As what our friends from the progressive camp said - “The most likely scenario is that they will be relocating their operations in other parts of the country, thanks to the de facto basing pact known as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement,” by BAYAN’s Renato Reyes Jr.

Methinks that their next camp of choice will be the Oyster Bay inside the Ulugan Bay in Palawan as provided by EDCA through the ‘agreed locations’ provision.

What else is new? As what I have said for the nth time, the US will never leave this country because there are so many things more beneficial to them than to us.

The mere fact that they reiterated their intent of ‘deactivating’ the JSOTF, does it mean that they are ‘guilty’ of the accusations of some pundits that they really had a hand in the Mamasapano incident despite their denials and cover up? They might also have some casualties in the said ‘encounter’. Probably this is the best time to pull out the JSOTF so that they will not to be investigated in their supposed role in the Operation Exodus.  It's amazing how they can inter change the names of Oplan from Wolverine into Exodus and vice versa to confuse everyone.

But not so fast, Joe. According to Kabataan Partylist Rep. Terry Ridon, he will file a resolution to call for a congressional review on the performance and activities of the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines (JSOTF-P).

Ridon expressed particular concern over the revelation that in a span of 13 years, a total of 17 JSOTF-P officers died during their tour of duty.

He said that “of the 17, ten died in the helicopter crash in Bohol in 2002. But what of the seven others? What were the cause of their deaths?” Ridon asked, explaining that it is possible that some of these US servicemen died during combat operations.

“We have to emphasize that our Constitution bans direct combat involvement of US troops. If these US servicemen died in combat in Mindanao, then we are looking at cases of serious infringement of our sovereignty,” Ridon said. (Source: http://kabataanpartylist.com)

Uncle Sam really have some explaining to do, unless some solons will object to conduct such investigation from the US side. And many believe that these solons deserve a no vote if they will run for re-election. They are the virtual slaves of a perceived master and will never be patriotic enough to defend the sovereignty of this country!

In the midst of all of these, many observers and pundits are asking why the PNoy administration has to stage manage a 'wag the dog' scenario to cover the truth that the government should push through in getting and apprehending members of MILF instead of the relentless bombing of BIFF and ASG. Is the government afraid of the threat of retaliation from the MILF if the BBL will be derailed? Or there is a far greater reason than the violence that the PNoy administration is so eager to deliver the BBL (without changes)? Your guess is as good as mine.

And if this happens, we are really heading not only to the road to balkanization but worse, towards a failed state. According to our contact with the International Crisis Group, Philippines is now a candidate to be a failed state after Afghanistan and Yemen.

Remember that in Yemen there are “crucial elements of unrest that cannot be tied to religion or sectarian interests. Masking legitimate complaints related to uneven social development, broader participation in government, and corruption. Yemen, for example, ranked 161 out of 174 countries in Transparency International's 2014 Corruption Perception Index, a ranking unlikely tied outright to sectarian divisions. The United Nations' 2014 Human Development Report placed Yemen's youth (15-24) unemployment rate at around 34%.” (From Asia Times online)

We are really looking for trouble if this insanity will not be preempted as soon as possible!

Watch out!