Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Unnecessary War by Erick San Juan

Unnecessary War by Erick San Juan

There is another ongoing clamor that the Filipinos had set their focus on – the reduction on prices of basic commodities as well as the basic utilities, from transport fare to electricity and water. The reason is the continuous drop of oil (and other petroleum products) prices in the world market. There were many reasons and speculations given on why this is happening. And so what is really happening?

“Oil prices seem to irresistibly be moving towards zero, based on expectations of China getting in a major slump, Iranian oil flooding the world markets and all the wild increase of demand over supply, at least this is what they want us to believe. Brent crude fell below $30 a barrel and continues to get cheaper. The value of OPEC oil basket dropped to $ 25 per barrel, the Mexican Pemex has been trading at a loss, losing a dollar for every barrel of oil, Canadian crude fell as low as $15. "Our business is dying at its core" - "Wall Street Journal" quoted the owner of the oil company from Illinois. The newspaper refers to "Barclay’s" analysts, issuing the forecast of costs within industry being reduced by 20%, after they have already fallen by a quarter in the past year.

Schedule of falling oil prices, adjusted in relation to the current fluctuations, has essentially been a straight line since last September, when prices fell from $ 50 per barrel to the current $ 29. What was so momentous that happened in the world market in September? In September, "Goldman Sachs" lowered expectations for the average oil price for 2016, assuming that it will drop to $ 20 a barrel. "Expectations" of "Goldman Sachs" were "whole-heartedly" supported by "Merrill Lynch", "Bank of America" and others.

There you have it - $20, quoted by "Goldman Sachs", was not a forecast. It was the target. Only our own Ministry of Economy is the one that makes forecasts, "Goldman Sachs" , on the other hand, makes the markets. The oil market - is not the market of raw materials. Supply contracts for actual oil makes only 2% percent of the market, the rest - speculative securities, futures and other derivatives. Prices for futures are not determined by supply and demand, but by "expectations". The futures market is completely controlled by the largest US banks. This is the market of expectations, which creates a real "Industry of expectations" using the notorious rating agencies, "independent" experts and the media.” (Source: Mikhail Leontyev in his article Goldman Sachs makes oil prices drop)

But there is more to it than meets the eye. On the other side of the ‘market’ are the other players doing something to counter the trading and speculations of the banksters.

“Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.

Later in November the Russian Energy Ministry has announced that it will begin test-trading of a new Russian oil benchmark. While this might sound like small beer to many, it’s huge. If successful, and there is no reason why it won’t be, the Russian crude oil benchmark futures contract traded on Russian exchanges, will price oil in rubles and no longer in US dollars. It is part of a de-dollarization move that Russia, China and a growing number of other countries have quietly begun.

The setting of an oil benchmark price is at the heart of the method used by major Wall Street banks to control world oil prices. Oil is the world’s largest commodity in dollar terms. Today, the price of Russian crude oil is referenced to what is called the Brent price. The problem is that the Brent field, along with other major North Sea oil fields is in major decline, meaning that Wall Street can use a vanishing benchmark to leverage control over vastly larger oil volumes. The other problem is that the Brent contract is controlled essentially by Wall Street and the derivatives manipulations of banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP MorganChase and Citibank.

The sale of oil denominated in dollars is essential for the support of the US dollar. In turn, maintaining demand for dollars by world central banks for their currency reserves to back foreign trade of countries like China, Japan or Germany, is essential if the United States dollar is to remain the leading world reserve currency. That status as world’s leading reserve currency is one of two pillars of American hegemony since the end of World War II. The second pillar is world military supremacy.” (Source: F. William Engdahl, Russia Breaking Wall St Oil Price Monopoly)

There seems to be a war going on, a war against the petro dollars. Fighting the dollar hegemony on oil thus affecting the US economy and some believe that this could trigger a war. That unnecessary war that will use other countries’ dollars to

keep the military industrial complex afloat.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Cold War to Hot War

Cold War to Hot War
By Erick San Juan

So what exactly was the Cold War all about?

In diplomatic terms there are three types of war.

Hot War : this is actual warfare. When all talks have failed and the armies are fighting.

Warm War : this is where talks are still going on and there would always be a chance of a peaceful outcome but armies, navies etc. are being fully mobilized and war plans are being put into operation ready for the command to fight.

Cold War : this term is used to describe the relationship between America and the Soviet Union in 1945 to 1980. Neither side ever fought the other – the consequences would be too appalling – but they did ‘fight’ for their beliefs using client states who fought for their beliefs on their behalf e.g. South Vietnam was anti-communist and was supplied by America during the war while North Vietnam was pro-Communist and fought the south (and the Americans) using weapons from communist Russia or communist China. In Afghanistan, the Americans supplied the rebel Afghans after the Soviet Union invaded in 1979 while they never physically involved themselves thus avoiding a direct clash with the Soviet Union. (Citation: C N Trueman "What Was The Cold War?", The History Learning Site, 25 May 2015. 16 Dec 2015).

The cold war happened and still happening in the Asia-Pacific region due to continuous provocations of China in the disputed territories and perceived to be escalating amidst efforts in finding peaceful solutions to the problem.

One can say that the world is experiencing a ‘warm war’, yes there are talks going on, even for economic reasons but the military aspect – the generals and their soldiers plus war materiel are being readied for any eventuality.

Actually the arms race started ‘in 2011, "the Obama Administration announced that the US would make “a strategic pivot” in its foreign policy to focus its military and political attention on the Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, that is, China."  From the article ‘No Wonder China is Nervous as Obama Pivots’ by F. William Engdahl (2012) – '‘The looming confrontation will be even harsher than the previous ones. U.S. forces have been withdrawing from Europe and disengaging from the Middle East. They are currently clustering around China and developing a ballistic missile shield which - should it actually prove effective someday - would enable Washington to strike Beijing without fear of reprisal.’'

I have written about this ‘ballistic missile shield’ in the past that is also present in the other side of the globe that encircles Russia, while here it was targeted against China.

“The official reason given by the Pentagon for its new BMD (ballistic missile deployment) to the Asian theater is to protect Japan, South Korea and other US allied countries in the region against a North Korean nuclear missile attack. That argument doesn’t stand close scrutiny.

In reality, according to numerous reports, Washington has decided to invest in a major Ballistic Missile Defense network using Japan, South Korea and Australia. The real target of the BMD system is not North Korea, but rather the Peoples’ Republic of China, the only power in the region possessing even a potential nuclear threat with serious long-range delivery capabilities. It is part of the new Pentagon strategy of imposing full control over the future development of China.

The Washington BMD offensive has to be viewed as well in the light of the well-timed Japanese government decision to allegedly/deliberately provoke tension with China over the disputed Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, a region believed to be vastly rich in natural gas reserves.” (Ibid)

As the beating on the drums of war is getting louder, we are heading towards a ‘hot war’ and countries like ours should rethink our position and be mindful of what happened in the past world wars. Sadly, with the passage of the resolution on the 'necessary evil' EDCA as constitutional by the Supreme Court, clearly we are being dragged into the slaughter house due to some of the world powers pressure on this administration. Truly, the present leadership will have blood in his hands as many Filipinos will surely die under his watch as signs of an impending war are already manifested by the superpowers.  And the battleground is here.

Be ever be vigilant!

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Wake up Chinoys by Erick San Juan

Wake up Chinoys by Erick San Juan

Talking about the simmering tension in the disputed area in the South China Sea, Doug Bandow, a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and a former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan wrote – “The possibility of miscalculation and misjudgement makes it even more important that all participants step back from confrontation. China cares deeply about sovereignty; Beijing’s adversaries believe the U.S. has their back; Washington would not tolerate an attack on its forces. No one wants to look weak. The fuse to war may be long, but no one should risk lighting it.”

Although the possibility of an event that can trigger the war in the South China Sea is getting stronger and for some, ‘lighting the fuse’ could be the only way to ‘solve’ their internal and economic problems.

Last year revealed signs of the imminent financial collapse that even China was hit and also the US, it is a global economic collapse. But as usual, like in China they will not open the books, so to speak for the world to see that their economy is also suffering. Both Washington and Beijing have to find an excuse to unite their citizenry against an outside enemy and one obvious reason is the return of the global war on terror (GWOT).

Conveniently revived under the strategy of fear and countries have to impose rules and form alliances against a common enemy, the minions of the late Osama bin Laden and his AL-Qaeda terror network which evolved into a new name and chief like the ISIS, ISIL and Baghdadi as the new Bin Laden.

But the perennial issue in this side of the globe which concerns disputed territories in the East and South China Sea is another story. China’s bullying over the other claimants in the SCS is getting stronger through the completion of China’s reclamation in the contested areas.

War strategists believe that to start a war in the SCS region is worth the risk especially when the stake is very high. It is about time that we should gather our act together and confront the problem before it’s too late.

Through this article we are calling the attention of our local Chinoys. We want to hear your voices. It’s payback time. Are you with us or against us? We are now being bullied by Beijing. If you are being told that you are all safe if China will take over, you’re wrong. With the large population in China, you could be part of the collateral damage.

There’s a big difference between the time of the Japanese takeover during World War II and China’s plan of creeping invasion without firing a single shot. I was told by a Chinese close friend that the Filipinos are too complacent and mostly co-opted by the soft touch operation of the pro- Beijing ethnic Chinese who metamorphosed into big business and big time under world operators. He added that basically they control many of our politicians, judiciary, religious organization, government functionaries including scalawags in uniform.

Today, almost all our major industries, facilities in power (electricity), some transportation and telecommunications are dominated by the Chinese/Chinoys, or their representatives and dummies alike.

There is an impending war and the battleground will be here because like I always say, the program is on, and it can be delayed but it can never be stopped at this time.

Like the leaked analysis several years back by the Pentagon think tank, the war between the US and China is unstoppable and unfortunately, due the stupidity of some of our leaders, our country will be balkanized by the two superpowers and even the local Chinoys here will serve as collateral damage.

So please wake up and help this country that made you rich and famous without so much effort by using ‘special connections’ in the process. When are you going to support the country that put you where you are today?

We have to be vigilant as I have been giving this warning several years now that there is a silent and asymmetric takeover by China and we will be caught unaware and soon will ask ourselves what hit us if we will not heed this warning.

Let us not wait for the fuse of war to be lighted, it is our beloved nation which is at stake here, wake up Pinoys and Chinoys!

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

World War III Nearing Reality by Erick San Juan

World War III Nearing Reality by Erick San Juan

From the article of Paul Craig Roberts, Why WWIII Is on the Horizon – The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 gave birth to a dangerous American ideology called neoconservativism. The Soviet Union had served as a constraint on US unilateral action. With the removal of this constraint on Washington, neoconservatives declared their agenda of US world hegemony. America was now the “sole superpower,” the “unipower,” that could act without restraint anywhere in the world.

The Washington Post neoconservative journalist Charles Krauthammer summed up the “new reality” as follows: “We have overwhelming global power. We are history’s designated custodians of the international system. When the Soviet Union fell, something new was born, something utterly new–a unipolar world dominated by a single superpower unchecked by any rival and with decisive reach in every corner of the globe. This is a staggering new development in history, not seen since the fall of Rome. Even Rome was no model for what America is today.”

The staggering unipolar power that history has given to Washington has to be protected at all costs. In 1992 top Pentagon official Undersecretary Paul Wolfowitz penned the Wolfowitz Doctrine, which became the basis for Washington’s foreign policy.

The Wolfowitz Doctrine states that the “first objective” of American foreign and military policy is “to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat [to US unilateral action] on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.” (A “hostile power” is a country sufficiently strong to have a foreign policy independent from Washington’s.)” (Posted at Paul Craig Roberts website Dec. 28, 2015)

This policy by the US to maintain the status quo and avoid the ‘re-emergence of a new rival’ has actually gave way to other countries to subscribe and promote a multi-polar world. And it seems that US military via the Pentagon is quick to brand any country disagreeing with Uncle Sam as ‘hostile power’ and will launch a regime change in the name of democracy (demo-crazy?).

In Wolfowitz Doctrine, it justifies the foreign and military policy of the US to be everywhere in the world through the establishment of military bases and employing economic hitmen to ensure that a rival will not emerge. This could also be the reason why alliances are made in favour of the US. Leaders kowtowing to Uncle Sam remain while those against were eliminated or overthrown.

But the emergence of China and the possible re-emergence of Russia are actual threats for the US that is why the pivot to Asia was launched. And in our case, our leaders are wittingly (or unwittingly) being part of this plan by the US and in the process, like a magnet, we are attracting Uncle’s enemies.

It has been said time and again by pundits that the pivot to Asia by the American troops was a move to encircle and contain China and Russia. But now these two countries are bound to help each other.

According to reports, “China hailed Russia’s updated security strategy which spoke positively of Russia-China ties. Incidentally, the document names the United States as one of the threats to Russia’s national security for the first time.

The new national security strategy document of Russia has said the US, in seeking to maintain unipolar dominance over the world, is counteracting Russian domestic policy.

“The network of US biological military labs is expanding on the territories of countries neighboring Russia. Russia’s independent foreign and domestic policy has been met with counteraction by the US and its allies, seeking to maintain its dominance in world affairs,” it said.

The new security document approved by Putin also lists threats from NATO and other "colour revolutions”.

The document describes those involved in “colour revolution” as “radical social groups which use nationalist and religious extremist ideologies, foreign and international NGOs, and also private citizens” who work to undermine Russia’s territorial integrity and destabilize political processes.

The document says that the United States and the EU have supported an “anti-constitutional coup d’etat in Ukraine”.

China, has also, in the past, warned against attempts to destabilize the country through ‘colour revolutions’.” (Source:

The scenario of alliance building – Russia and China and the US with its allies in the region, seem to have a pattern and the same scenario in the past two world wars? And the news of global economic collapse, the world is really heading towards the third world war. Are we ready? Unfortunately, our country is being taken for a ride with the unlimited telenovela of the 'pul-politicos' day in and day out.

With the ‘last two minutes’ (so to speak) of the Aquino administration, every move pertaining to foreign policy seems to be a move just to save face, like in joining the AIIB. A move that was perceived to appease China after what the youth did (Faeldon’s group) that sailed and stayed for a few days in the Kalayaan Group  of Islands.

They are calling for a united more patriotic move to get what is ours from the Chinese. Sadly, this call is in vain, united for what? Was this operation really came from their own volition?

That is why, like a broken record, for the nth time, unity means having a single ideology, a call to all Filipinos to be united under an ideology that reflects our being a true PINOY.

 Wake up guys before it's too late!

Itching for World War by Erick San Juan

Itching for World War by Erick San Juan

I don't want to be an alarmist but all ingredients of world war is now getting clearer that everyone should be vigilant and prepare for any eventuality.

Relentless expansion of one’s own sphere of influence while denying a corresponding sphere of influence and concomitant security interests to one’s counterpart reeks of hubris, stupidity, and miscalculation, the usual tragic precursors to war in the past. (Robert Shines, NATO Expansion: Lessons Not Learned, December 16, 2015)

Like Robert Shines and other observers of current events in relation to contemporary history, nations through their leaders never learned from history and actually keep on repeating them. Unfortunately the mistakes in the past are the same mistakes being done all over again.

One of the battlegrounds is right here in our ‘neighborhood’ or we could be the epicenter of turbulence as the tension in the South China Sea started simmering again.

China’s Defense Ministry on Saturday (Dec. 19) accused the U.S. of committing a “serious military provocation” by flying an Air Force B-52 bomber over a Chinese-controlled, man-made island in the South China Sea, and reiterated that it would do whatever necessary to protect Chinese sovereignty. (AP)

And this is not the only ‘provocation’ in the SCS, according to another report from  Jennifer Pak, Reuters (Dec. 19) – “A Pentagon spokesman, Bill Urban, said there was no plan for the B-52 to fly within 12 nautical miles of any artificial island, which is the boundary marking a country’s territorial waters. He said the US has received a complaint from China and was investigating the incident.

The Chinese statement said the US military’s actions to “make a show of force” had created tensions in the South China Sea, though the Americans are not the only military operating and testing the waters.

Earlier this week, an Australian aircraft flew over another part of the disputed area claimed by the Chinese and said it was exercising "freedom of airspace" navigation.
A BBC crew in the area at the time had picked up the exchange between the Australian crew and Chinese navy.

Some pundits believe that China has somehow established a virtual ADIZ already over the South China Sea as shown by its reaction towards foreign air crafts exercising “freedom of airspace” over its perceived territory of reclaimed lands.

Moreover, the perennial issue of one China policy that Uncle Sam keeps forgetting by its action recently. In a December 20 PNA report stated : “Following Washington’s announcement that it will sell weapons to Taiwan, a Chinese state-owned newspaper warned that the United States would face “increasing costs and consequences” if it got involved in a regional conflict.

The USD 1.83 billion deal includes two Navy frigates, combat systems for mine-sweepers, missiles, amphibious attack vehicles and communications systems.

China quickly criticized the deal, saying it interferes with its sovereignty over Taiwan.

“Washington’s protection pledge is the only card that the island has for its defense, and it is a weakening one,” read an editorial in China’s Global Times, a tabloid published by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily.

“Given the mainland’s steadily growing military power, once the US gets involved in a conflict in the Taiwan Straits, it will face increasing costs and consequences.”

The United States does not formally recognize Taiwan as an independent state, but the two have close security ties and Washington is legally committed to support Taiwan in defending itself.

One senior Beijing-based Western diplomat, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity and citing conversations with Chinese strategists, said the last thing China wanted was armed confrontation with Washington.

“They can’t guarantee winning, and they would face huge domestic consequences for a botched military operation.",the diplomat said.

The arms sale is sure to further strain ties between the United States and China, which was already incensed over Washington’s decision to sail a Navy warship within 12 nautical miles of islands Beijing claims in the disputed South China Sea.

Taiwan’s independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is likely to win January’s presidential and parliamentary elections, says stronger defense capabilities for the island would give Taiwan better confidence to expand exchanges with China, Reuters reported.

Defeated Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan after losing a civil war with the Communists in 1949. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring what it deems a renegade province under its control.”

Even the recent visit of volunteer youth leaders in going to Pag-asa Island irritated Beijing. And while more provocations intensify the tension in the disputed territories in the SCS. There seems to be no stopping the arms race and saber-rattling by US and its allies against China, another tension is also brewing in the Middle East concerning Russia and NATO and EU and ISIS. The tension will go on as the world is inching for another world war.