Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Cold War to Hot War

Cold War to Hot War
By Erick San Juan

So what exactly was the Cold War all about?

In diplomatic terms there are three types of war.

Hot War : this is actual warfare. When all talks have failed and the armies are fighting.

Warm War : this is where talks are still going on and there would always be a chance of a peaceful outcome but armies, navies etc. are being fully mobilized and war plans are being put into operation ready for the command to fight.

Cold War : this term is used to describe the relationship between America and the Soviet Union in 1945 to 1980. Neither side ever fought the other – the consequences would be too appalling – but they did ‘fight’ for their beliefs using client states who fought for their beliefs on their behalf e.g. South Vietnam was anti-communist and was supplied by America during the war while North Vietnam was pro-Communist and fought the south (and the Americans) using weapons from communist Russia or communist China. In Afghanistan, the Americans supplied the rebel Afghans after the Soviet Union invaded in 1979 while they never physically involved themselves thus avoiding a direct clash with the Soviet Union. (Citation: C N Trueman "What Was The Cold War?", The History Learning Site, 25 May 2015. 16 Dec 2015).

The cold war happened and still happening in the Asia-Pacific region due to continuous provocations of China in the disputed territories and perceived to be escalating amidst efforts in finding peaceful solutions to the problem.

One can say that the world is experiencing a ‘warm war’, yes there are talks going on, even for economic reasons but the military aspect – the generals and their soldiers plus war materiel are being readied for any eventuality.

Actually the arms race started ‘in 2011, "the Obama Administration announced that the US would make “a strategic pivot” in its foreign policy to focus its military and political attention on the Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, that is, China."  From the article ‘No Wonder China is Nervous as Obama Pivots’ by F. William Engdahl (2012) – '‘The looming confrontation will be even harsher than the previous ones. U.S. forces have been withdrawing from Europe and disengaging from the Middle East. They are currently clustering around China and developing a ballistic missile shield which - should it actually prove effective someday - would enable Washington to strike Beijing without fear of reprisal.’'

I have written about this ‘ballistic missile shield’ in the past that is also present in the other side of the globe that encircles Russia, while here it was targeted against China.

“The official reason given by the Pentagon for its new BMD (ballistic missile deployment) to the Asian theater is to protect Japan, South Korea and other US allied countries in the region against a North Korean nuclear missile attack. That argument doesn’t stand close scrutiny.

In reality, according to numerous reports, Washington has decided to invest in a major Ballistic Missile Defense network using Japan, South Korea and Australia. The real target of the BMD system is not North Korea, but rather the Peoples’ Republic of China, the only power in the region possessing even a potential nuclear threat with serious long-range delivery capabilities. It is part of the new Pentagon strategy of imposing full control over the future development of China.

The Washington BMD offensive has to be viewed as well in the light of the well-timed Japanese government decision to allegedly/deliberately provoke tension with China over the disputed Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, a region believed to be vastly rich in natural gas reserves.” (Ibid)

As the beating on the drums of war is getting louder, we are heading towards a ‘hot war’ and countries like ours should rethink our position and be mindful of what happened in the past world wars. Sadly, with the passage of the resolution on the 'necessary evil' EDCA as constitutional by the Supreme Court, clearly we are being dragged into the slaughter house due to some of the world powers pressure on this administration. Truly, the present leadership will have blood in his hands as many Filipinos will surely die under his watch as signs of an impending war are already manifested by the superpowers.  And the battleground is here.

Be ever be vigilant!

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