Monday, July 29, 2013

Creating the Situation Toward Belligerence

Creating the Situation Toward Belligerence
By Erick San Juan

After four SONAs (State of the Nation Address), where is the Philippines going?

Many pundits believe that President BS Aquino III has lost credibility, basically on what had happened in the Bureau of Customs (BOC). Thick-faced  officials, not only at BOC but also in the president's loop have been pulling the present leadership down. And what made matters worse is that PNoy himself seems ‘blind and deaf’ to see this. Or the people in his innermost circle are the ones creating the problems for PNoy? Still two SONAs to go, Mr. President and I believe that if you will listen to more credible and honest people, you can still make the necessary genuine changes towards your ‘matuwid na daan’.

Sadly, as the Pandora’s Box is wide - opened on the different anomalies of people in the government (elected and appointed), hostilities in so many fronts are brewing fast-paced, if not handled with utmost caution, this country will be on the road to balkanization.

Take for example the brewing war in the south, as cited at the Manila Times online – “Whether or not there is a final peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), war could break out in Mindanao because of wrangling among large armed groups, including the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). Ustadz Pendi Colano, chairman of the Central Mindanao’s MNLF sub-wing Selatan State Revolutionary Committee said, his group will not relinquish their territories in Central Mindanao composed of at least seven municipalities even if the government and the MILF sign a peace agreement.

On the other hand, Colano said the MILF has been massing forces, even recruiting young boys aged 14 to 16, to prepare for a massive strike in case the talks collapse.

'Either way, the government has no other choice but to prepare for hostilities, because the MNLF considers the Framework Agreement as a “tool for war” and not a solution to the Mindanao conflict,' he said.

This is a very alarming warning, considering the oppositions coming from different sectors when the so-called initial stage of the Peace Agreement was symbolically signed nine months ago, and yet it was pushed through. And as they say, the Misuari problem will always haunt them.

“Still, a segment of the Moro or Muslim Filipino population still holds him in high esteem. When he warns of renewed conflict, it is not impossible to believe that it could happen. The MILF may be a more potent force today, and the MNLF may be a shadow of its former self, but it does not take too many followers of one leader to cause major headaches for both the government and the new authority that is almost certain to be headed by MILF. But the MNLF has stated that they will not “relinquish” any of the territory that they claim as theirs by virtue of the Tripoli Agreement.” (Source: Manila Times online 7/28/13)

And on top of this ‘Misuari problem’, the government should also be wary with the heirs of Kiram that was also overlooked when they signed the peace agreement. They, too have a say on the matter at hand. Remember my warning? Forewarned is forearmed, my friend… Be wary to these signs that may lead to more belligerence in the south.

So, what will happen after the four SONAs? I can still see no clear policies both domestic and especially on foreign policies. It’s like a knee-jerk reaction every time a problem occurs. And ithe present administration will be fighting so many fronts if it will not address the problems before it snowballed to a real shooting war. If this happens (God forbid) this country will soon be balkanized as I predicted long time ago. And this is just our internal predicament. What about the crisis with our neighbor – China and the continuing intrusion of Uncle Sam through its troops gradually taking over our military through its former military bases. Our leaders are perceived to be looking for more troubles because after three years, they are still in the trial and error mode.

Wake up before its too late!!!

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Darkening Clouds of War in the Offing

Darkening Clouds of War in the Offing
By Erick San Juan

In the middle of a heated word war between the Philippines and China, clouds of a possible shooting war are getting darker in the disputed areas in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) as groups of so-called "patriotic" Filipinos/Fil-Ams are preparing for what they call West Philippine Sea Coalition inviting Filipinos around the world to protest China's so-called 'aggression’.

This call for action against China is actually inviting for more aggression and will raise the tension once more, far greater than the one with Taiwan on the recent shooting incident.

Pundits are somewhat suspicious of the real intention of the key players  of this so called coalition and probably the motivation that benefits them by doing this perceived provocation. The issue in point here is the emphasis on the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) modernization especially mentioned in the ‘short speeches’ by former Interior and Local Government Secretary Rafael Alunan III and former National Security Adviser Roilo Golez.

The modernization issue is somewhat ‘in tune’ with the latest development of the RP-US expanded talks on the ‘cooperation to include possible US funding to build facilities and the storage of US humanitarian relief supplies.’

“The wider scope of the talks for joint use of civilian and military facilities signals rapidly warming security ties between the allies as the Philippines looks to the US administration to help counter a newly assertive China”.

According to our Ambassador to the U.S., Jose Cuisia, “the Philippines has ruled out granting permanent basing rights to Washington, but it would give US warplanes and warships wider access to Philippine bases on a temporary and rotational basis, helping the Asian nation improve its minimum defense capability."

"The increasing rotational presence of US forces in the country is covered by the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement, but a new arrangement would be needed if Washington built facilities to support its temporary deployment to the Philippines.
We need to expand (the 1998 pact) further because we may have to build some additional facilities", Cuisia added. (Reuters 7/18/2013)

This expanded talks on the use of Uncle Sam’s former military bases is for  "humanitarian aid and disaster relief efforts." Translation – a blatant disregard for our nation’s sovereignty. No matter what angle we look at all these circus 'chubibo’, it all boils down to one obvious reason – using the Philippines as Uncle Sam’s cannon fodder in their efforts to contain China and starting a regional conflict that will benefit their economies in the process. As simple and stupid as it is being played by the puppet masters on their dummies playing as patriots. Don't get me wrong. I love the American people but I love my country more. We have to get what's due us if we really want to defend the nation from any aggression coming not only from the ouside but more from within.

Actually we have forgotten another group of Pinoys that can help this country with this China crisis – the Chinoys.

Now is the right time for our kababayan Chinoys to show their solidarity and open support to the Filipino people who protected and enriched them and most of all accepted them as real brothers and sisters. They should help in appeasing China and tell China that we can do commerce or joint explorations but do not grab our territories.

Their silence on the issue could be misconstrued that they are 'sleepers' buying time to take over this nation fully without firing a single shot. Our leaders should learn from how the Japanese before the war has infiltrated this nation. If you are not with us, you are against us.

History is rich with lessons that will continuously remind us of the mistakes done by our past leaders (mostly dealers/collaborators). Our only effort is not to repeat the bad part of this country and the world’s history.

The unity that we must promote must benefit the Filipinos and not  only the interests of this country’s so called friends/allies. There is still a path worth tracking that will brighten the dark clouds of war and lead us to peace. God help us all!

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Empty Provocations, Real War?

Empty Provocations, Real War?
By Erick San Juan

In his catchy phrase as the title of his article, Doug Saunders of The Globe and Mail described the recently concluded fifth round of the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue as – “U.S. and China smile for cameras, prepare for war”.

This month’s ‘dialogue’ in Washington like the meeting of both presidents Obama and Xi Jin Ping in California were full of rhetoric. As they met and talk of future undertakings like how to curb carbon emission to address the problem of climate change, their top military men are planning for ‘the war’.

As Jeremy Page of The Wall Street Journal noted recently, Mr. Xi has rehabilitated a group of ultra-hawkish generals and military advisers who have advocated a military strategy based on preparing for direct confrontation with the United States. He has particularly embraced Col. Liu Mingfu, whose calls for direct China-U.S. military competition had led his books to be banned, but are now back on the bookstore shelves in droves. Also widely published now is air force Col. Dai Xu, who wrote last year, according to Reuters, that China’s neighbors are “running dogs of the United States in Asia” and “we only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.”

"This include Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia," added Dai.

The mere fact that China’s so-called group of ultra-hawkish generals and military advisers are already sending the signal of war preparations and using the old Chinese proverb – ‘kill a chicken to scare the monkey’,  that includes our country as one of the targets, being a close ally of Uncle Sam. So, do we have a choice? This is the price we have to take for being a loyal (and most of the time stupid) ally of the mighty Uncle Sam. Up to now our own war veterans are not fully compensated and we still continue to buy second hand war materials instead of using the much needed funds for our people's welfare.

“Both the Pentagon and the People’s Liberation Army are arming for an all-out war and pursuing enormously expensive master strategies that assume that such a war will occur."

In the case of the United States, this appears and disguise to be taking place without any authorization or approval from the White House or Congress. The Pentagon is now basing its global strategy on a detailed plan known as the Air-Sea Battle concept, in which the U.S. Army and Air Force defend the presence of 320,000 U.S. troops in the area by readying themselves for a full-scale land and air assault on China in the event of a threat in the South China Sea or its surroundings.” (Ibid)

Both Beijing and Washington are armed with not just muscles and arms but the think tanks behind such military strategies. In every war games, in every war rooms, strategists are the ones calling the shots, and they always plan ahead. In that case, do we have such think tanks and experts when it comes to strategies if ever a war will break out? None so far, maybe more of talking heads and reactionists, like showbiz people. When are we going to put our act together the soonest possible time for we are running out of time since the big brother announced its pivot to Asia via the Air-Sea battle approach?

The signs are here. Warships come and go from our ports, right down our noses. With who knows, how many US soldiers ‘visiting’ the country plus the top officials of Obama’s cabinet together with some  US legislators paying their courtesy call to a very loyal ally.

Wake up! Are there able people running the store?

As what Doug Saunders' reminder to us and to the rest of the world – “So we are in the absurd position of having the two superpowers at peace with one another while their armies prepare for total war. It is a dangerous state of affairs – something we ought to remember as we approach the centenary of 1914, when just such a mismatch led the world to war.”

God forbid!

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

We Are "Forced" to Have the Forces

We Are "Forced" to Have the Forces
By Erick San Juan
The recent talks on the revival of the former US military bases in Subic and Clark, possibly through a charter change sent ripples throughout the country creating divisions among pro and anti Americans especially among the netizens.  But the truth of the matter is the Americans never left and this time around after they physically left its military bases, they actually turned the whole archipelago as their military outpost in this part of the world.
We are too valuable for the American military that through some people in our government who became witting tools in circumventing the law of the land and created the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) via the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). As I have been saying for years now that such treaties and other so-called agreements are all one-sided, no thanks to the pretenders in our government. It is more for the benefit of the other party than ours. And as of this writing, the government is concocting another ‘access agreement’ with the US and other countries where we have similar pact with to allow the use of the military bases.
Actually we don’t need this b.s. 'access agreement', because of the VFA, US forces are ‘visiting’ the country in a regular rotational basis and some (600 soldiers) are already ‘more than visiting’ particularly in the south through the Joint Special Operations Task Force Philippines.
Why the JSOTF-P and how long is this task force operating in the country?
In an excerpt from the book, Shadow Wars by David Axe, he explained that - By 2001 Mindanao was a haven for a shifting alliance of Islamic groups dominated by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf — the latter two Al Qaeda affiliates. In December that year, Jemaah Islamiyah plotted an attack on the U.S. embassy in Singapore, but Singaporean authorities intervened.
In January 2002, the  Special Operations Command deployed Joint Task Force 510 to fight the Islamists alongside the Philippine military. The task force would soon change its name into Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines and grew to include 600 soldiers, Marines, sailors, airmen and civilians operating trucks, gun-armed speed boats, helicopters, C-12 cargo planes and U-28 spy planes.
Under the cover of a training exercise in March 2002, Washington sent Gnat drones — the smaller, slower, older brother of the Predator — to the Philippines. Comments by a military spokesperson created the impression that the Gnats were Pentagon assets, but in fact the military didn’t take possession of its own Gnats until the following year. The Gnats in the Philippines were apparently CIA models, purchased in parallel with the agency’s initial contingent of more powerful Predators.
Special Operation Forces and drones are not new in this country, remember that right after the September 11, 2001 ‘terror attack’ on the twin towers, George Bush’s war on terror was a success because nations joined him in his synthetic global war on terror (GWOT) including former President GLoria Macapagal Arroyo who dragged us into Bush’s stupid war. Have you forgotten how former President Joseph Estrada's military (successfuly) simultaneously attacked and taken the 46 camps of the MILF with the secret help of drones?
These forces are forced to good to be part and parcel of such special ops especially in the south because our government leaders allowed Uncle Sam to do so in his proxy war in this region.
Although at present, Americans have shown little appetite to support another large-scale overseas military effort — and President Barack Obama vowed in his State of the Union message that America would not occupy other nations during his watch. So , the Pentagon is working “by, with and through” allied and partner nations to enhance global security, to use the current catchphrase. (Military Sees Broader Role for Special Operations Forces, in Peace and War by Thom Shanker)

The reason, however, that the shift is of relevance (more broadly) is that it signals the irresistible rise of the special operations community in the post-counterinsurgency era.  More than a year ago, in January 2012, President Obama inaugurated the US Defense Strategic Guidance. The document was strategically significant because it announced the “pivot to Asia” alongside continued commitments to the oil sheikhdoms of the Persian Gulf.
Militarily, it clearly signaled the end of large-scale invasion and occupation of troublesome or intransigent countries in favor of the kind of operations in which the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and its counterterrorism component, the JSOC, excel. This ascendancy is confirmed by the planned expansion of the SOCOM by around 7.5 percent by 2015, from 66,100 civilian and military personnel in 2011 to 71,100 by 2015.
This expansion of the force, at a time when most US government departments – including the Pentagon itself – are contemplating possible sequestrations, speaks to the increasing importance of a force which can act in the shadows, leaving a “light footprint”.
A recent report by the Center for a New American Security describes the light footprints as a “minimalist” and “non-intrusive” approach to asymmetric warfare combining “air power, special operators, intelligence agents, indigenous armed groups and contractors, often leveraging relationships with allies and enabling partner militaries to take more active roles”. US Special Operations Command is perfectly suited for such tasks and is increasingly consolidating its hold over the broad spectrum of military tactics it entails. (The Tip of the Spear: US Special Operations Forces from Aljazeera)
With the "sequestration" in effect, meaning budget cuts in military spending, Uncle Sam will be using more of the same, special forces and drones. So, what else is new?

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Are we going to wait for the next screening?

Are we going to wait for the next screening?
By Erick San Juan

As the five-day naval exercises between the US and the Philippines has ended, it looks like the country will once again be open for the use of the  former  American bases in Subic and Clark, is this possible under our constitution?

According to the Department of Defense Secretary, Voltaire Gazmin, the Philippines would allow the United States, Japan and other allies access to its existing military bases under an agreement that would be in accordance with the Constitution and the Visiting Forces Agreement.

So, it is not true that we will construct new bases, instead the government is now preparing the so-called ‘access agreement’  so that Americans, Japanese and other allies’ troops and equipments (a.k.a. war materiel) will now have access to the former  military bases. Translation – they will come and go as they please and turning our country into a doormat in the region (again). So what else is new?

Hopes are high that the PNoy administration will come out with the ‘access agreement’ and put it into effect just as the government is all out in modernizing the Armed Forces of the country.

Uncle Sam’s troops together with their sea and air warships (including drones/UAV) have been ‘visiting’ the country since the ratification of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) over a decade ago. And as if Uncle Sam is not satisfied with VFA (via the MDT), this time they will use the backdoor again in cohorts with some government officials to circumvent the Philippine Constitution with this access agreement.

Part of the big picture.

We all know that the over-hyped ‘pivot to Asia-Pacific region’ is crucial for Uncle Sam’s plan to get hold of the region for obvious economic reasons, aside from containment of China.  And where else they can put their hundreds of troops and war materiel with open legs than in the Philippines. The US propaganda machine just released a floater that Subic will be the new Guam in the offing. Sadly, we really never learned from history of sheer collaboration and the famous tag – ‘what’s in it for me?’ by leaders with their ‘dealhensya’ and other perks for such collaboration, how sad.

Now that we are being dragged again towards a regional conflict and possibly a global war, the scenario analyzed by some pundits is now gradually coming into a reality. The Philippines could be the epicenter in Asia of the next world war. And a pretext is just waiting to be triggered amid tensions already brewing in the process.

Just like the Hollywood-made movies, a scenario is being planned of how the mighty Uncle Sam will fall, floaters(?) of things to come. God forbid.

And from David Chase Taylor of posted June 30, 2013   and the site is  - Based on breaking news and events depicted herein, it now appears that the 'globalists' have authorized the Chinese government to execute a controlled “surprise” attack against the United States and Japan starting in July of 2013. This unprovoked attack will likely kick-off with a series of escalating Chinese terror attacks against western U.S. cities (i.e., Seattle, Washington, Portland, Oregon, and San Francisco, California) followed by a full-scale invasion of key U.S. military bases in the Pacific theater (i.e., Okinawa, Japan, Iwo Jima, Japan, and Pearl Harbor, Hawaii).

Once America and the world are collectively glued to their respective television sets, TV channels worldwide will be simultaneously held hostage in an unprecedented act of cyber-hijacking as the Chinese attack culminates with “Live TV” nuclear detonation in an American city with a recognizable skyline (i.e., Seattle—Space Needle, San Francisco—Golden Gate Bridge or St. Louis, Missouri—Gateway Arch).

Depending on how the world reacts to the first ever “Live” nuclear attack, a second nuclear detonation will likely target another city in the United States or Europe, quite possibly Paris, France. In order for a nuclear attack to be the most psychologically terrorizing, a well-known landmark (e.g., the Twin Towers on 9/11) must be destroyed in the attack to serve as a life-long reminder of that horrific day.

The Chinese surprise-attack depicted herein is slated to be eerily reminiscent of the December 7, 1941, Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and will undoubtedly spark a nuclear war between the United States and China which recent reports such as, “Chinese “Kamikaze” Drone Attack On Pearl Harbor Hawaii Imminent” and “Red Dawn Scenario: Chinese Attack On America Imminent” have attempted to thwart.

There are several movies shown and will be shown of the possible scenes in real-life. The mere fact that the 9/11 attack and the Boston bombing were shown in some TV animated series and other TV programs in the US, we can never tell how far these made in Hollywood movies will go to provide us with clues of what will be the next scenario. Are we going to wait and see for the next screening?

Let us all be vigilant and pray harder that the few forces of evil will meet their end soon.

 Let's also hope and pray that the July 4th sinister plot will also fail!