Friday, December 27, 2013

MISCALCULATION! By Erick San juan

US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff called for continued military-to-military talks with the Chinese to defuse tensions. The goal, General Dempsey said, “was to come to a common agreement about rules of behavior when we encounter each other in three particular domains: air, sea and cyber.” (Source New York Times online by Thom Shanker, December 19, 2013)

The above-mentioned statement was released after “naval vessels from the two countries came close to colliding in the South China Sea on Dec. 5, when a Chinese warship cut across the bow of an American cruiser, the USS Cow-pens.”

In times like this any incident/accident between the G2 (China and the US) in the hottest contested area in the world – the China Sea (South and East) could spell big trouble, and might drag other countries in the region into a regional conflict in the process. Some pundits believe that a spark, usually a miscalculation, could trigger a global war because some of the countries in the region, mostly claimants in the South China Sea’s disputed territories are allies of Washington and it only means that they will possibly unite behind the big brother. Presto – a mutually assured destruction!

As an observer of events, I have written about this in my blog (ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) and published in several newspapers, how Beijing and Washington continuously talking through their military officials about the future of the region when it comes to maritime disputes. But the recent event of China’s establishing its ADIZ (air defense identification zone) which overlapped those of Japan’s and South Korea’s ADIZ, the tension has started to escalate again.

Although one can see that in the same news article, there seems to be a doublespeak by Gen. Dempsey when he was asked to “assess the level of American concern over China’s fielding of an aircraft carrier(a refurbished older vessel bought from Ukraine). General Dempsey noted that the Chinese were “a long way from being a threat to us with their aircraft carrier.”

If this is so, who is provoking who? And with the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, out to its first voyage in the South China Sea, the Pentagon now is preparing to counter “the Chinese military’s focus on long-range bombs and missiles designed at least in part to deny American forces’ access to waters closer to China.” Of course, huge investments had to cover this budget intended “to preserve the ability of American warships and warplanes to operate where they want.”

So in the end of the analysis there is no budget cut for military spending (like what they said before) when the American military hegemony is at stake here, threatened by Beijing’s military modernization at full speed.

The perception of some pundits that war is bound to happen (whether we like it or not) is not farfetched. Especially if such provocations like what happened this month will continue. There are other flashpoints that the rest of the world is watching very closely. Escalation of tensions by mere miscalculation could be the trigger that will drag us all, not only in the Asia-Pacific but also the rest of the world into another global war.

Let us all pray harder that what the US military officials said of their military to military talks with China about rules of engagement in the field of air, cyber and sea will really bring positive results so that peace will prevail.

 But lets all be wary of the super elites agenda dictating a designed crisis like what they did during the first and the second world wars. Nuke, biological, chemical and other tricks are in the offing! The signature is there!

 My deep sympathy and condolences to mom Vilma, Cong.Chuck, Councilor Bu and siblings for the untimely death of a very good friend and a father to me, former QC Mayor Mel Mathay. He has been good to so many people.

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