Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Beware of the Twin Arrows by Erick San Juan

Beware of the Twin Arrows by Erick San Juan

If one country could not do anything with geographical matters because it is by far a work of nature, man-made strategy has to be done in order to find solutions to the problem.

In an article “China’s Maritime Choke Points” published at GeoPolitical Futures website, the map showing China’s maritime choke points best explain why China created island where there is no land through reclamation and in the process set up military stations which they denied time and time again that they are not militarizing the area.

Based on the map that one can find at GeoPolitical Futures website – “There are two seas to the east of China – the East China Sea to the north and the South China Sea to the south, with Taiwan positioned in between. Air and naval forces based in Taiwan are, at least in theory, able to prevent movement between the two seas. The Taiwan Strait is fairly narrow and movement by the Chinese to Taiwan’s east forces China to pass near the Philippines to the south, and or through the Ryukyu Islands to the north. Passage through the Ryukyu Islands could be blocked by hostile naval forces or by land-based aircraft and missiles.

Therefore, China has a naval problem. It must assume that in war, it will have two different maritime theaters of operation, the East and South China seas, and will have difficulty moving forces from one to the other. Consequently, it needs a strong navy.”

That is why Taiwan and Luzon (the northern part of the Philippines) are the target future provinces of China in order to achieve its goal of creating a safe passage in the region, translation – Chinese-controlled areas.

“Therefore, it is clear why the Chinese care so much about the Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea. Until they can guarantee that these islands are not controlled by hostile forces, their ability to create a Chinese-controlled channel through the islands framing the South China Sea is limited. They need to clear the islands, both to allow themselves access and to deny anyone the ability to use the islands to cripple operations in the first place. The Chinese are trying to take the first step in guaranteeing their access to the global sea lanes.

China’s naval forces remain inadequate for conflict with the United States. The Chinese have adopted an interim strategy of using air- and land-based anti-ship missile systems to keep the U.S. Navy far to the east and south of the choke points. But these missiles are vulnerable to U.S. air and missile suppression. Therefore, the Chinese are combining them with naval operations intended to intimidate regional nations from working with the United States. As we see in the Philippines, these operations have had the opposite effect. But from the Chinese point of view, this does not change the geographic reality and therefore cannot be seen as a failure, but merely reinforcing the core strategic reality.

One alternative option for the Chinese, if they are unable to mount amphibious operations, is to return to a strategy from the 1960s and use support for insurgencies in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines to create political shifts that would eliminate major threats to Chinese movements. But such insurgencies could force an increase in U.S. naval presence in the region.” (Ibid)

Could it be that China has something to do with the latest communist insurgencies and bold activities in the country despite NDF? Just asking.

Methinks that the Chinese initiative in the One Belt, One Road operation especially in the new 21st century Maritime Silk Road has something to do with China’s plan of creating access to several sea lanes for geopolitical and economic reasons. It has to be done especially if the mighty US is always on the guard to every move of China’s military – may it be in sea, land or air.

In the long run Chinese projects that involve several countries in order to help them economically will benefit China more and make the Xi's China Dream a reality. Although reality checks otherwise, China’s big problem is geography and it is in this area that will stop China from expanding its reach and bypassing the rights of other sovereign nations like the Philippines.

China's Xi Jinping has been spending a lot for their global propaganda machine like the every Tuesday's whole page ad at Philippine Star and Manila Bulletin plus their weekly China Daily Asean edition being given free in strategic places including 5 Star hotels showing too rosy pictures of China.

But what was not told is the internal problem in China, both political and economic where capital flight continue due to Xi's expansion program of its military industrial complex allies. A big bubble is in the offing.

We have to be wary at all times in order to avoid a scenario that will make us the next battleground of an impending proxy war. We have to support our president at all cost if it will save our country from dangers.

Beware not only about 'Operation Reverse Arrow' of getting the Philippines without firing a single shot through 'soft touch' op and using their sleepers, dupes and rags to riches ethnic pro China families. And worst the 'Operation Twin Arrows' of attacking Taiwan using their own 'Lily Pad' of islands. I don't want to be an alarmist but be VERY VIGILANT!

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