Which Side to Take?

Which Side to Take?
By Erick San Juan


Once again the country is in the wait and see mode for the next episode of the impeachment trial of the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice Corona. But this writer’s concern are the events that occurred prior to the scheduled impeachment day.

On the eve of the Feast of the Black Nazarene, a possible terror threat was announced by the President himself that according to Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, the reliability of the intelligence report was so high.

After tracking down the possible terrorists’ hideouts in the metropolis and found nothing, the heightened alert was withdrawn. The fiesta ended peacefully. Although the terror alert stays.

But the fear sowed upon the populace was still there and for many who are taken for a ride still believes the synthetic terror warning.

Then the weekend after that, another rumor was floated that there was a threat upon the president’s security. So, what else is new?

Uncle Sam’s Doublespeak

Last Friday the 13th we can’t help but notice the statement made by the US Ambassador, Harry Thomas (that appeared in the newspaper the following day) that the US is not taking sides on the issue of the South China Sea between the Philippines and China. Whatever happened to the good old big brother protecting his little brother and loyal ally in this part of the region?

The statement made was a sudden turnaround from what used to be the usual stand of Washington when it comes to protecting its allies most especially the Philippines. What is confusing here is the mere fact that Washington is giving its support by granting (even with some second hand and almost junk) military hardware to our AFP and yet they are not taking sides. Obviously, by helping Washington’s allies in the region militarily, is actually “taking the side” of its allies against an adversary.

Unfortunately, Uncle Sam is using rhetoric and doublespeak when former Republican Party presidential candidate John McCain said Washington should also turn to diplomacy to help Asean members sort out their own disputes and “establish a more unified front.”

McCain said the US should help members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations like the Philippines develop and deploy an early warning system and coastal vessels in the disputed waters.

He said, the US should let other countries know “which claims the US accepts, which ones we do not, and what actions we are prepared to support,” especially in defense of the Philippines, a treaty ally. (Source: Philippine Daily Inquirer by Jerry E. Esplanada)
So, which is which? Is Uncle Sam with the SCS claimants’ side or with Beijing?

Financial Armageddon stronger than a Nuclear Holocaust

At this point in time where bullying thy neighbor will not produce any positive results and China bashing only worsens the already tensed situation in the South China Sea, Washington should rethink its strategy. What if Beijing will retaliate in the most unusual way?

Uncle Sam should take the cue from Paul Craig Roberts’ analysis in his article - The Next War on Washington's Agenda, to wit :

Washington is getting all of us in over our heads. Washington has declared the “Asia-Pacific” and the South China Sea to be areas of “America’s national interest.” What sense does this make? It makes the same sense as if China declared the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea to be areas of China’s national interest.

Washington has deployed 2,500 Marines, promising more to come to Australia in order to do what? Protect Australia from China or occupy Australia? Encircle China with 2,500 Marines? It would not mean anything to China if Washington deployed 25,000 Marines in Australia.

When you get right down to it, Washington’s tough talk is nothing but a silly pointless provocation of Washington’s largest creditor. What if Washington’s 'hawks' idiocy causes China to worry that Washington and its UK and European puppets will seize its bank balances and refuse to honor China’s holdings of $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds? Will China pull its balances from the weak US, UK, and European banks? Will China decide to strike first, not with nuclear weapons, but by selling its $1 trillion in Treasury bonds all at once?

It would be cheaper than war.

The Federal Reserve would have to quickly print another $1 trillion dollars with which to buy the bonds, or US interest rates would shoot up. What would China do with the $1 trillion in newly printed paper? In my opinion, China would dump it all at once in the currency market, because the Federal Reserve cannot print euros, UK pounds, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, Russian rubles, and Chinese yuan with which to buy up its newly printed currency.

Which side to take?

A question for our leaders in this exciting times wherein any moment now, an event can trigger a regional conflict or a full blown global war. It may be nuclear or financial global disaster. Our leaders must always take the side of the nation’s interest and safety – no matter what. Let us pray harder that such unfortunate event will not happen.

Shifting Gear and Arms Race

Shifting Gear and Arms Race
By Erick San Juan

In the preamble to the new plan, “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense”, Obama writes:

As we end today's wars and reshape our armed forces, we will ensure that our military is agile, flexible, and ready for the full range of contingencies. In particular, we will continue to invest in the capabilities critical to future success, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; counterterrorism; countering weapons of mass destruction; operating in anti-access environments; and prevailing in all domains, including cyber. (Published at CommonDreams.org 1/5/12)

What we are about to witness with this “new plan” is actually a Bush Doctrine – extended play, and to think that Obama is far better than George W. Bush Jr., think again. The same ingredients for possible regional conflict (or another world war) are present – counterterrorism, preemptive strike, regime change, WMD (weapons of mass destruction), etc., to make sure that their kind of democracy is in place and working to their advantage.

In his January 5 Pentagon news conference, President Barack Obama also mentioned from this new strategy that the United States would strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region while cutting billions of dollars from overall defense spending. Translation – a world war is still queued and a much needed regional conflict is not far behind.

As the op-ed by China's state-run news agency, Xinhua warned the Obama administration of adventurism in the Asia-Pacific.

"The United States should learn from its past painful experiences and play a constructive role in the Asia-Pacific instead of recklessly practicing militarism," the article read. "After all, might does not always make right."

The article notes that Washington can play a constructive role in stability in the region provided it's "free from a cold war style, zero-sum mentality."

For Beijing, such posturing of Washington in this part of the globe will not help in achieving regional stability, worse, US is allegedly provoking more tension to the already tensed atmosphere, especially in the South China Sea. But it seems that China is also engaged in a major military build up while keeping the secret that it's economy is also reaching it's limits, according to economist Nicholas Lardy of Peterson Institute. Even Robert Samuelson of Washington Post commented that Europe and US slump weakened China's trade and will achieve growth by becoming even more predatory toward other countries.

Unfortunately, we are in that region and our present leaders has been witting tools in this game of saber rattling. Our leaders never learned from history and even showing an inkling of repeating history when we were dragged and shortchanged in a war we never dreamt of joining.

By openly showing support for Uncle Sam and requesting for additional military equipments like the squadron of F-16, we are really looking for trouble by programming our punches.

Let us be reminded of Halford Mackinder's "Heartland" theory. Mackinder said "Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island (Eurasia)."

Mackinder's followers have applied this strategy to Asia, and believed that controlling South China Sea will make the U.S. air force and navy command East Asia, and consequently command the "World Island".

Can we now clearly say that the reason behind US 'Return-to-Asia' strategy is to intensify "security rebalancing" efforts on China, taking comprehensive measures to suppress China, and instigating its allies to pay, contribute and appear to restrain China? (What is behind US 'Return-to-Asia' strategy? by Lin Zhiyuan, People's Daily Online published @ Global Research 12/29/11)

We took the bait of joining the arms race in the midst of calamity-stricken provinces where we can’t afford to address the perennial problems that has brought about natural and man-made disasters. It is about time to rethink the country’s priorities. Wake up and there is no fun when most Filipinos are suffering and struggling to survive in their day to day living while the war president (in the making) is kowtowing to a perceived master.

Playing Gods by Erick San Juan

As we entered the very controversial year 2012, the worldwide web of information was filled with different views on the events that might happen in December this year, as the end of another age. Although, some people find this so called “end of the world” as a positive event in human history, still everything is uncertain.

But one thing I know that is certain – that all kinds of war are being pushed to pressure everyone to go to a real war. We now hear of cyber war, biological, thermo-nuclear and weather wars, etc. Through the advance technology (man has mastered over the years), we can’t help but speculate that every time there is a big natural calamity, we somehow think that it is actually a man-made disaster.

The recent earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, hurricane, tornadoes that devastated properties and killed thousands of human lives are somewhat attributed to weather engineering. If we thought that huge disasters can only be seen in movies, well think again. I was given several documents by my long time radio program avid listener, Rels Octaviano, a geo-physical analyst and researcher about HAARP. The HAARP or High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program, is allegedly a joint research venture funded by the United States Air Force, the United States Navy, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the University of Alaska. The project was started way back in 1993, with the aim of analyzing the ionosphere, in order to assess the potential of developing it to further enhance the radio communication and surveillance technology. The HAARP Research Station - the facility where this research is carried out, is located at a US Air Force site in Alaska.

As a part of this project, a high powered radio frequency transmitter - the Ionospheric Research Instrument (IRI) also referred to as 'ionosphere heaters', is used to excite a specific portion of the ionosphere for a temporary period. Other than the IRI, this project also includes the use of equipment like a UHF radar and a fluxgate magnetometer to study the physical changes that occur in the excited portion of the ionosphere. Even though, several ionosphere heaters exist in various parts of the world, this is by far the largest and most powerful among them.

The allegation that the high frequency radio waves alter the core of the planet is yet another infamous attribute of the project HAARP conspiracy. Earthquakes are believed to be triggered by the alteration of the core by the activities carried out in this alleged research project. Some also alleged that the HAARP is a military mega-project in disguise of a research center, which primarily acts as a surveillance system, but also has the ability of destroying the aircraft in midair. Some conspiracy theorists also claim that the radio waves emitted by HAARP can result in adverse effects on the human mind and body.

The HAARP Research Station is a high security zone wherein unauthorized entry is strictly prohibited. This adds to the mystery surrounding the research project and is the driving factor behind a range of HAARP conspiracy theories. In short, the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), reportedly, has the ability to take down an aircraft, manipulate weather and trigger natural calamities, and all these possibilities have put it under the scanner as one of the most infamous conspiracy of the world. (By Abhijit Naik, HAARP Conspiracy @ Buzzle.com last Updated: 9/22/2011)
This is only one part of the possible explanation as to why the world is experiencing certain disasters. What I am worried about is the confluence of events that are somehow in tune of what are stated in the Bible. I have been discussing these things in my radio program (DWSS 1494khz, daily@5:30pm) courtesy of my listeners who also happen to be studying and doing a lot of research in the said field for several years now.

All the events in recent times has been manipulated and/or influenced by some evil geniuses who wants to play God and mess around with Mother Nature. It doesn’t matter to them if such actions will produce disastrous reactions that can kill thousands of precious lives in the process. There are a lot of man-made disasters by design only to achieve their goal of depopulation (or what some may call – to annihilate useless eaters of this planet). But in the end, God will prevail and our world will be cleansed…

Let us be hopeful and have faith in what we believe in. Work harder and be good, do good and eventually we will feel good towards every person we will meet in this world. A hopeful new year to all of us!

The Program is On!

The Program is On! by Erick San Juan

"A good neighbor is better than a far-off brother." – Old Chinese Saying

China has renewed what it has been doing for some years now – its peaceful rise to power and applying soft power to it's Asian neighbors in the area where it's rival power (the US) in the region is not doing. Like the old Chinese saying, Beijing wants to project the good neighbor image and makes the rest of the Asian neighborhood happy, being the recipient of a neighbor’s good deeds.

Not until the past weeks, where there were series of military exercises and particularly, the display of naval power by both Beijing and Washington in and around the disputed areas of the South China Sea. This time, such events are making the Asian neighborhood and the rest of the world nervous.

As if waiting for a big event that can trigger a regional conflict, the world is in the wait and see mode and hoping that somehow things will be resolved for the better. Well not here in our own backyard, where we are witnessing a possible war president-in-the-making.

After kowtowing to a perceived master at the last Asian Summit, the next move of President Aquino is to acquire a squadron or 12 F-16 fighter jets from the United States. In the midst of calamity after calamity where hundreds of Filipino lives were involved, in a time of great suffering among our fellowmen in the south, the palace occupant is thinking of war.

We will be expecting more rains in the future because of the La Nina phenomenon and the acquisition of equipments that will be valuable to rescue precious lives should be the top priority of the present administration.

Instead of preparing for war over the Spratlys, which will not benefit us and will only push us further to become the magnet of the far-off brother’s enemies in the region. And, for someone who has been following the confluence of events here and around the world, this writer can’t help but notice the absence of the US troops in Sendong rescue (search and retrieval) and relief operations. This is something ominous that in case of war, Malacanang needs to make a request first before Washington act. Where is the so-called automatic response and extended hands of support from a brother?

What we have been witnessing for the recent months is the prodding of Uncle Sam for the nation-states in Asia to keep on purchasing military equipments in spite of the fact that we Filipinos need other much important purchases that will help us economically. Methinks that if we will continue this buying spree, we will end up broke and need to borrow again and again to pay for a war that we don’t need. Where is the sense of priority of our nation’s leaders? Harder times are coming. Will such provocation push us to a regional conflict or worse, cripple us more in the process?

The program is on, whether we like it or not, it could be delayed, but can we stop it? That’s all but the fact remain, the proxy war is inevitable. And sadly, not one person in the government could see this coming and make efforts to prevent it. Instead, we could be the witting tools in the game of war of the giants. A very perilous new year coming!

God forbid!

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Let's Get Our Act Together by Erick San Juan

As we witness the events unfolding for the past weeks, there seem to be no changes at all on the way things are going towards a possible conflict between Beijing and Washington. To wit from the Global Times, President Hu Jintao's speech Tuesday to the Chinese Navy representatives caught the attention of foreign media. It focused on two lines, that China must "accelerate the transformation of its navy" and "make extended preparations for military combat."

The instructions Hu gave to the Navy are hardly different to what any country's leader or commander-in-chief may give to his military. That is the routine requirement for any military force, especially those of a developing country.

Any country should look at this from a normal perspective, otherwise they may overinterpret China's military moves.

And then on the following day, December 7, China and the United States held their annual defense consultative talks (DCT) as planned in Beijing, despite recent frictions including the US arms sales to Taiwan.

It is important to note that in September, Washington announced the $5.85 billion arms sale to Taiwan and the upgrades of its 145 fighter jets. The arms sale was a decision made by the US State Department and not what others would think was done by the Pentagon. Why is this so? Another angel and demon operation?

"The fact that the American delegation which include officials from the US State Department shows that Washington too does not merely consider the DCT to be military talks.", said Yuan Peng, director of the American Studies Center at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. "Nobody wants a conflict, and the US cannot afford a conflict with China now.", Peng added.

The Defense Consultative Talks which was established in 1997, is the highest-level bilateral dialogue between the two militaries. (China Daily)

It is very clear that cold war or not, the rest of the Asia Pacific is on the look out for a possible scenario that will trigger an attack on China or the US that will start the war.

As these events are unfolding, we can’t help asking ourselves, what are we doing as a nation in the middle of two conflicting elephants?

At the Global News Network-Destiny channel talk show of Mentong Laurel last Friday night, me and retired navy Commodore Rex Robles discussed the possibility of a world war and dicussed our readiness to such situation. There were hanging questions (due of lack of time) left unanswered for the mean time. Is the present administration ready for such eventuality? Do we have people who have expertise in geopolitics and foreign policy that can address problems that may arise when such event happens?

Yes, this administration seems juggling among none issues that had to be left to some cabinet members expertise to resolve. Our government should be ready economically and strategically in the field of geopolitics. Time is of the essence here and mere 'kowtowing' to a perceived 'master' is a no-no. We are facing an impending global conflict. We should think out of the box and think the unthinkable. We have to get our acts together and come up with concrete strategies that will help the country in the process. If we will just rely and put our fate to the 'big brother', we will be shortchanged again and find ourselves in the losing end.

For a change, this present administration should not make the same mistake committed by our past leaders, where they let the country be dragged to a war that we never wanted.

God save the Philippines and let's have happy holidays!

Cold War to World War? by Erick San Juan

"If China's core interests, such as its sovereignty, national security, and unity are intruded on, a military conflict will be unavoidable." This was the statement by Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, the Deputy Secretary General of the China Society of Military Science, after Pres. Obama’s announcement of the new military basing operations in Australia. (People's Daily, Nov. 17)

This statement came about after the so-called summit that was supposed to create an atmosphere of cooperation and finding peaceful solutions to some issues especially the disputed area in the South China Sea. Just like what I wrote in my last article (www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) the event was more confrontational rather than what it has projected to the world.

The planned permanent military basing by US in Australia was another irritant to US-China relations, to note: A remark by Defense Ministry spokesman, Geng Yansheng, was China's strongest reaction yet to the announcement by President Barack Obama in November of the US plan to strengthen military ties with Australia and to eventually station 2,500 Marines on Australia's remote northern coast. To Quote-

"We believe this is all a manifestation of a Cold War mentality," Mr. Geng said at a monthly press briefing, according to text of his remarks posted on the Defense Ministry's website. "We hope relevant parties do more things that are beneficial for the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, rather than the opposite." (Source: The Wall Street Journal-Asia online 12/1/11)

The Cold War was the most important political and diplomatic issue of the later half of the 20th Century. The main Cold War enemies were the United States and the Soviet Union. The Cold war got it's name because both sides were afraid of fighting each other directly. In such a "hot war," nuclear weapons might destroy everything. So, instead, they fought each other indirectly. They played havoc with conflicts in different parts of the world. They also used words as weapons. They threatened and denounced each other. Or, they tried to make each other look foolish. (Source: globalsecurity.org)

If this “cold war mentality” will continue, could it be that the real “shooting war” is not far behind?

The blame game worsened when last October, US lawmaker Michael Turner, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee focusing on strategic weapons and other security programs voiced concern about an extensive tunnel complex designed to house China's nuclear missiles.(www.breitbart.com) "The tunnels would allow China to launch a nuclear counter-attack if it was hit by a nuclear strike.", said Mark Schneider, senior analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy. It was corroborated by Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center. He said that the tunnel complex could allow the Chinese army to conceal its weapons. The plot thickens when CNN TV last December 1, featured some Georgetown University students in Washington DC who have blown the lid off one of China's best kept military secrets that it's nuclear arsenal could be up to 40 times bigger than thought. According to London Telegraph, Philip Karber and Nick Yarosh of Georgetown University said that China could have as many as 3,000 nuclear warheads,far more than the current estimates of between 80 to 400.

ATS quoted China's army general, Chi Haotian, the vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission when he said," We have made a tremendous effort to construct 'The Great Wall Project', to build up, along our coastal and land frontiers as well as around large and medium-sized cities , a solid underground 'great wall' that can withstand a nuclear war." With the events unfolding gearing towards a global war, the rest of the world especially nations in Asia Pacific, should find a way to avert another world war. Unfortunately, our country’s leadership did not see this coming and lacked the expertise in the field of geopolitics when it gave its support to Uncle Sam at the East Asia Summit.

Actually, such action virtually dragged us into supporting a possible regional conflict that might trigger another world war. Again, we will be part of a war that we never wanted. We hope that this week's US-Sino annual defense talks will produce positive results and adhere to peaceful resolutions on major defense and military issues.

Anyway, the Filipinos will never postpone Christmas festivities come what may. Happy Holidays to all!