Cold War to World War? by Erick San Juan

"If China's core interests, such as its sovereignty, national security, and unity are intruded on, a military conflict will be unavoidable." This was the statement by Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, the Deputy Secretary General of the China Society of Military Science, after Pres. Obama’s announcement of the new military basing operations in Australia. (People's Daily, Nov. 17)

This statement came about after the so-called summit that was supposed to create an atmosphere of cooperation and finding peaceful solutions to some issues especially the disputed area in the South China Sea. Just like what I wrote in my last article (www.ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) the event was more confrontational rather than what it has projected to the world.

The planned permanent military basing by US in Australia was another irritant to US-China relations, to note: A remark by Defense Ministry spokesman, Geng Yansheng, was China's strongest reaction yet to the announcement by President Barack Obama in November of the US plan to strengthen military ties with Australia and to eventually station 2,500 Marines on Australia's remote northern coast. To Quote-

"We believe this is all a manifestation of a Cold War mentality," Mr. Geng said at a monthly press briefing, according to text of his remarks posted on the Defense Ministry's website. "We hope relevant parties do more things that are beneficial for the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, rather than the opposite." (Source: The Wall Street Journal-Asia online 12/1/11)

The Cold War was the most important political and diplomatic issue of the later half of the 20th Century. The main Cold War enemies were the United States and the Soviet Union. The Cold war got it's name because both sides were afraid of fighting each other directly. In such a "hot war," nuclear weapons might destroy everything. So, instead, they fought each other indirectly. They played havoc with conflicts in different parts of the world. They also used words as weapons. They threatened and denounced each other. Or, they tried to make each other look foolish. (Source: globalsecurity.org)

If this “cold war mentality” will continue, could it be that the real “shooting war” is not far behind?

The blame game worsened when last October, US lawmaker Michael Turner, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee focusing on strategic weapons and other security programs voiced concern about an extensive tunnel complex designed to house China's nuclear missiles.(www.breitbart.com) "The tunnels would allow China to launch a nuclear counter-attack if it was hit by a nuclear strike.", said Mark Schneider, senior analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy. It was corroborated by Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center. He said that the tunnel complex could allow the Chinese army to conceal its weapons. The plot thickens when CNN TV last December 1, featured some Georgetown University students in Washington DC who have blown the lid off one of China's best kept military secrets that it's nuclear arsenal could be up to 40 times bigger than thought. According to London Telegraph, Philip Karber and Nick Yarosh of Georgetown University said that China could have as many as 3,000 nuclear warheads,far more than the current estimates of between 80 to 400.

ATS quoted China's army general, Chi Haotian, the vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission when he said," We have made a tremendous effort to construct 'The Great Wall Project', to build up, along our coastal and land frontiers as well as around large and medium-sized cities , a solid underground 'great wall' that can withstand a nuclear war." With the events unfolding gearing towards a global war, the rest of the world especially nations in Asia Pacific, should find a way to avert another world war. Unfortunately, our country’s leadership did not see this coming and lacked the expertise in the field of geopolitics when it gave its support to Uncle Sam at the East Asia Summit.

Actually, such action virtually dragged us into supporting a possible regional conflict that might trigger another world war. Again, we will be part of a war that we never wanted. We hope that this week's US-Sino annual defense talks will produce positive results and adhere to peaceful resolutions on major defense and military issues.

Anyway, the Filipinos will never postpone Christmas festivities come what may. Happy Holidays to all!