Tuesday, March 27, 2012

War Against Iran, Who Will Benefit by Erick San Juan

War Against Iran, Who Will Benefit by Erick San Juan

After the Arab Spring and then Syria, the Near East is at the threshold of war, this time with Iran. Overtly, U.S. President Barack Obama has been trying to stop Israel from bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. But according to Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian targets officer in the CIA's clandestine service (WSJ,March 27,2012), Obama actually made it much easier for Israel to attack. The critical parts of the Obama administration's Iran policy plus the behavior of Ali Khamenei, the Iran's Islamic ruler have combined to encourage the Israelis to strike., Gerecht added.

It's now getting clearer that Obama is doing a double talk. In his public statements, it define a president's diplomacy. But recently, in front of the AIPAC(the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee), a very strong Jewish lobby group, he told the AIPAC the efficacy of the sanctions against Iran and the quality of US intelligence on Tehran's nuclear program. The sanctions could reportedly collapse the Iranian economy. The world is suffering the worst economic debacle, but the west with it's action against Iran complicates the situation. The condition worsens when Tehran seems to speed up the arms race and threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz. This will inevitably affect the upsurge of oil prices. Some countries could benefit from the changes in the global policy, although this trend could be in contradiction with a superficial logic. In view of this, it is worth looking for better solutions than go to war.

The pretext is to put pressure on Tehran for it's nuclear program. As the saying goes, 'the mullahs with the nuclear bomb are much worse than the mullahs without the bomb'. But the Nuke Club members like the US and Israel have more bombs than those perceived rogue states. War is an extreme measure, especially with this global downturn. But it looks like the possible occurrence is inevitable. The signature of the previous world wars are already there. The west has it's own reason. The US approaches their presidential elections. President Obama needs a successful foreign policy and firm resolution of the Iran problem. However, it's success is not guaranteed, whereas a failure will surely destroy Obama's re-election bid. Thus,a war requires a more serious reason- to unite the American people against a perceived enemy or profit out of chaos. A well planned op allegedly by the military industrial complex.

The resolution of the problem of the 'axis of evil' represented by Iran and North Korea could be a good idea, but the experience in Afghanistan and Iraq proved that the democratization of the near east and the middle east is a difficult task. It gave birth to more extremism as continuation of the Arab spring and the realization of geopolitical chaos.

Will the European Union support this war? If war breaks out in Iran, the situation for sure will worsen and could lead to either unification or collapse of the Euro zone or even the entire EU.

The Arab world has been silent during the attacks against Afghanistan. It was also silent during the 're-organization' of Iraq. It supported the Arab spring. The Arab oil exporting countries want to sell oil peacefully and avoid conflicts with the west. Besides, most of them believe that the elimination of the Shiite, Iran would be a blessing for Saudi Arabia and other Sunni nation states.

It's divide and conquer! "Mapi Muk!"

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