Thursday, August 2, 2012

Lessons Learned? by Erick San Juan

Fourteen years ago, I wrote about the impending war between China and the US and this article is very timely amidst the tensions brewing between the two superpowers.

Taken from what I wrote in August-September 1998 issue of Customsweek: Contrary to what Establishment-controlled media tells you, China’s leaders are hardcore Marxists who still believe that the United States is the number one obstacle to be removed between them and the Communist world domination. They consider Americans to be greedy, decadent, capitalistic pigs, but ‘officially’ they will tell the Americans only the things they want to hear – that they love the USA, that they want to be their trade and industry partner and emulate Uncle Sam in very way.

The topic I emphasized then was about Intelligence in Public Relations. The Chinese did these to lure the US into giving them some massive amounts of assistance, trade, high technology, military know-how, among others. And they won the hearts of the Americans. By using unparalleled intelligence and PR works, Uncle Sam granted them the Most Favored- Nation Status that was never ever given to us as their faithful (sometimes stupid) ally in the region.

This privilege was renewed on a yearly basis but after the reported massive human rights violation in China, it was removed but was again granted by then US President Bill Clinton.

Blame the West.

In an article by A. Greer Meisels (associate director and research fellow for China and the Pacific at the Center for the National Interest), her main emphasis - why the process of assessing blame for the collapse of the USSR is still a hot topic in Beijing was based on China’s President, Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao’s call for a continued reform process in China

This is in relation to the 18th National Party Congress some time in October or November that would be a historic leadership transitions in the Party’s political history. Of course, such event will affect China’s future in the field of economy and in the military as seen by the rest of the world.

They are actually more cautious now and reviewed what happened with the USSR and its breakdown. In Meisels’ analysis, there were three things that contributed to Russia’s fall, or what she termed as blame game, the third of which is blame the west.

China will see to it that what happened to USSR will not happen to them.

Is this the reason why they are now more aggressive, by bullying its neighbors in the SCS?

Pundits claim that the Chinese elite is doing that as part of their diversionary strategy to avert a possible implosion, a civil war in the offing due to too much corruption and in fighting from within. Fighting a foreign enemy will allegedly unite them.

As an observer of events unfolding, the threat of a regional conflict is not impossible with the aggressive move of China recently in the contested areas in the South China Sea. Building a garrison in an island in the SCS is directly provoking some neighboring countries especially claimants in the SCS. Those who first reacted to China’s move were Japan and Vietnam followed by Manila after the garrison announcement in the island of Sansha.

It is for a fact that Uncle Sam is directly “helping” most of the claimants in the SCS and actually calling for a multilateral solution to the said disputes. But as we all know, China is very firm to solve the disputes bilaterally, translation – without Uncle Sam or his loop of meddlers.

With lessons learned from Russia’s contemporary history, China will not allow the West, especially US to stop them from what they are planning to do as an emerging superpower. Worse comes to worst, there would be smoking guns this August.

"We're not going to war vs our neighbors ", says defense minister spokesman, Geng Yansheng. But action speaks louder than words.
The semblance of what happened before the first and second world wars are happening right now, and any miscalculation or stupidity to start a regional conflict, another world war is not far behind. Fear China from within and not from without. God forbid!

No comments: