The Fuse is Burning by Erick San Juan

As the anniversary of the outbreak of World War I approaches, the world today bears a chilling similarity to one hundred years ago. Then, amid a deepening crisis of world capitalism, the major powers were engaged in a high stakes game of diplomatic intrigue, provocation and military intervention that produced one “war scare” after another. (Source: Japanese PM Revives Militarist Traditions. “Japan Closely Integrated into US War Preparations against China” by Peter Symonds)

As an observer of events, I have been telling my listeners that the present world is actually experiencing the same events that led to the First World War (and the second World War). And I am not alone in this view, taken from the interview of Rob Kirby by Greg Hunter's show 'USA Watchdog', he said that “Isn’t it interesting that the timing, we see the war drums are getting louder and louder as the financial system getting weaker and weaker and ever close to a blow up and along with the installation of a police state in America.”

We are not trying to spoil the spirit of the season as we close the year towards 2014 but whether we like it or not, the world is set for another war in the offing. "When China stops getting the amount of gold that they need or want, and that might be when we have a war.”, Kirby added Because isn’t it interesting as China romps the amount of gold that they been consuming and getting shipped to them, we hear rumblings in the background all over the place about calls from the military or the specter of the military engagements whether it’s between Japan and China or whether it’s in the Middle East, in Syria. When the gold stops flowing to China, that’s when somebody is gonna bang the gun. (Rob Kirby, financial analyst)

This is the gloomy analysis of Rob Kirby of the current situation. This is also the reason why mankind is experiencing reports everywhere of an impending war. The signs are written on the wall for everybody to see and be warned. Now the question is how long can this go on? Rob Kirby replied – “There is a universal constant in economics and always has been like rivers flow from mountain tops to the sea. Physical gold has always flown from countries with balance of trade deficits to countries with balance of trade surpluses. Whether or not there is an official gold standard because there has not always been an official gold standard going back hundreds and hundreds of years.

The amount of physical gold in the world is a finite number and the amount that China has been procuring and been consuming over the last number of months and years is not sustainable. We could run out of gold, that is a given and that is  absolutely a fact.”That is the scariest part when the West (where China is getting its gold) runs out of gold, what will happen now?

“We know factually because its reported even in our brain-dead mainstream media that Chinese appetite for physical gold is insatiable and we know because we have had data that physical gold is being shipped at breakneck phase. So when is the West have none? When is the cupboard bare?”Kirby see it coming sooner than later, it could be at the early part of the first quarter of the New Year (at the most) because “the reality is, we have an ever shortening fuse that is lit connected to an ever growing pile of explosives. So how long is the fuse and how big is the pile of explosives when it goes?”

The confluence of events are happening concurrently, signs of an impending war, when triggered with just a single spark could blow the fuse towards a global war.

Be ever vigilant new year to all!

MISCALCULATION! By Erick San juan

US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff called for continued military-to-military talks with the Chinese to defuse tensions. The goal, General Dempsey said, “was to come to a common agreement about rules of behavior when we encounter each other in three particular domains: air, sea and cyber.” (Source New York Times online by Thom Shanker, December 19, 2013)

The above-mentioned statement was released after “naval vessels from the two countries came close to colliding in the South China Sea on Dec. 5, when a Chinese warship cut across the bow of an American cruiser, the USS Cow-pens.”

In times like this any incident/accident between the G2 (China and the US) in the hottest contested area in the world – the China Sea (South and East) could spell big trouble, and might drag other countries in the region into a regional conflict in the process. Some pundits believe that a spark, usually a miscalculation, could trigger a global war because some of the countries in the region, mostly claimants in the South China Sea’s disputed territories are allies of Washington and it only means that they will possibly unite behind the big brother. Presto – a mutually assured destruction!

As an observer of events, I have written about this in my blog (ericksanjuan.blogspot.com) and published in several newspapers, how Beijing and Washington continuously talking through their military officials about the future of the region when it comes to maritime disputes. But the recent event of China’s establishing its ADIZ (air defense identification zone) which overlapped those of Japan’s and South Korea’s ADIZ, the tension has started to escalate again.

Although one can see that in the same news article, there seems to be a doublespeak by Gen. Dempsey when he was asked to “assess the level of American concern over China’s fielding of an aircraft carrier(a refurbished older vessel bought from Ukraine). General Dempsey noted that the Chinese were “a long way from being a threat to us with their aircraft carrier.”

If this is so, who is provoking who? And with the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, out to its first voyage in the South China Sea, the Pentagon now is preparing to counter “the Chinese military’s focus on long-range bombs and missiles designed at least in part to deny American forces’ access to waters closer to China.” Of course, huge investments had to cover this budget intended “to preserve the ability of American warships and warplanes to operate where they want.”

So in the end of the analysis there is no budget cut for military spending (like what they said before) when the American military hegemony is at stake here, threatened by Beijing’s military modernization at full speed.

The perception of some pundits that war is bound to happen (whether we like it or not) is not farfetched. Especially if such provocations like what happened this month will continue. There are other flashpoints that the rest of the world is watching very closely. Escalation of tensions by mere miscalculation could be the trigger that will drag us all, not only in the Asia-Pacific but also the rest of the world into another global war.

Let us all pray harder that what the US military officials said of their military to military talks with China about rules of engagement in the field of air, cyber and sea will really bring positive results so that peace will prevail.

 But lets all be wary of the super elites agenda dictating a designed crisis like what they did during the first and the second world wars. Nuke, biological, chemical and other tricks are in the offing! The signature is there!

 My deep sympathy and condolences to mom Vilma, Cong.Chuck, Councilor Bu and siblings for the untimely death of a very good friend and a father to me, former QC Mayor Mel Mathay. He has been good to so many people.

A New 'Pearl Harbor' in the Offing

A New 'Pearl Harbor' in the Offing

By Erick San Juan

Reports that a Chinese navy vessel tried this month to force a US warship to a halt in international waters have senior US officials and longtime Asia analysts asking what, precisely, China was trying to prove by the maneuver.

US naval officials note that the USS Cowpers – a guided missile warship – was “lawfully operating” in waters near the South China Sea when it had an encounter with a People's Liberation Army (PLA) vessel “that required maneuvering to avoid a collision,” according to an article in the Washington Free Beacon.

The incident followed China’s announcement that it will establish an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, a move that elicited howls of objection from the US military, as well as from China’s neighbors in Southeast Asia, who worry about Beijing's growing willingness to flex its military muscle in the region.

While US Navy officials confirmed the episode, they also caution that these sort of standoffs with China happen with relative frequency in the Pacific and that, according to one Navy officer with knowledge of the event, it’s important not to “overhype” the incident. (Various sources online 12/13/13)

Maybe that is the reason why the incident was not reported immediately. It's only now because the media will possibly hype it in relation to China’s ADIZ. Anyway, now that it is already in the news, such incident can be perceived as another provocation that might lead to a global conflict, probably another 'Pearl Harbor' incident in the offing?

From several analysts, the Pearl Harbor incident is the 'Mother of All Conspiracies', while according to Encyclopedia Britannica there is this so-called ‘back door’ theory:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Was there a "back door" to World War II, as some revisionist historians have asserted? According to this view, then President Franklin D. Roosevelt, inhibited by the American public's opposition to direct U.S. involvement in the fighting and determined to save Great Britain from a Nazi victory in Europe, manipulated events in the Pacific in order to provoke a Japanese attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, thereby forcing the United States to enter the war on the side of Britain.

In other words, Pearl Harbor incident is a false flag operation. But in the present time, will people repeat history? Like what happened recently in the South China Sea, another stand-off between China and the United States. Is this testing the water for a possible Pearl Harbor scenario?

Another flashpoint is in the East China Sea where China and Japan are both claiming the Senkakus(Diaoyu Is.).  Actually several pundits see this escalation of tension in this part of the region as a prelude to a possible conflict that can lead to another world war.

A couple of flashpoints that made this part of the planet as the hottest area and after the escalation of tension, a miscalculation could spell M-A-D, a mutually assured destruction.

Although observers especially netizens see this scenario coming because there is actually a silent war going on inside China and the US, if not handled the right way, may lead to a possible civil war in China and a second revolution in USA. Both countries’ internal problems need a scenario that can unite their citizenry in order to divert their attention away from their present predicaments. And unfortunately, if this war scenario will happen in the Asia-Pacific region, we will be dragged into a war whether we like it or not.

And the upcoming visit of Secretary John Kerry in the guise of looking into the welfare of the victims of the typhoon is all double talk. We should be wary as to the real agenda of the big brother here. Remember that I have been writing (@ericksanjuan.blogspotcom) and talking about this on my daily radio program that a possible Pearl Harbor scenario is not farfetched. Unfortunately, the Philippines could be the epicenter of the next global war. Yes, there is a lot of pocket wars in the Middle East but remember that this is much different than what is going on in the Asia-Pacific region where the undercurrents could reach the boiling point sooner than we thought. God forbid!

War By The Chosen Few by Erick San Juan

For over two weeks now, the issue on China’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) is still very much the hot topic among analysts and observers of current events. Even to some netizens, various comments and sometimes harsh ones are still the trend.

There is nothing new about establishing an ADIZ for security reasons among countries especially the threatened ones under tensions created by disputes over territories. This time around the China-Japan dispute over tiny islands has created another chapter of tension especially that the mighty Uncle Sam is supporting Japan, its ally in the region.

But as an observer of events as they unfold, there could be other reasons why US and its allies (or even on the part of China) are making such a huge deal about this 'animal' called ADIZ.

From the point of view of some analysts, like Ric Saludo of Manila Times, in his article ‘Here we go again: China’s new gambit’, he wrote that one factor (among three factors) that some “analysts for the ADIZ move is the need for the new administration of President Xi and Prime Minister Li Keqiang to consolidate power and push sweeping economic reforms, which will inevitably generate opposition from powerful vested interests in the bureaucracy, local governments, and business groups. As with any external challenge, harnessing the armed forces to assert territorial claims against foreign nations lines up both the people and the military behind the government.”

In the midst of the availability of information on the internet via the social media networks, and by fearless bloggers, restiveness within China cannot be hidden to the rest of the world.

As reported by Willy Lam (Xi's power grab dwarfs market reforms) he pointed out that the “recent Third Plenary Session of the 18th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee was expected to unveil major initiatives in economic liberalization. What has struck Chinese and foreign observers most is the weight that the leadership has given to enhancing state security, particularly centralizing powers in the top echelon of the party-state apparatus.

There are also doubts about whether Xi's insistence on party leadership of economic policy would contradict the pride of place that Li seems to be giving to market forces. The plenum communique and resolution put a lot of emphasis on the fact that "comprehensively deepening reform must require strengthening and improving party leadership, and fully developing the core leadership function of the party in taking charge of the whole situation while coordinating [the needs] of different sectors".

The documents also called upon "party committees of all levels to earnestly fulfill the leadership responsibility over reform".

In the eyes of Chen Ziming, a famed theorist of reform, the much-anticipated Third Plenum has turned out to be more a question of power than of reform. "With Xi Jinping becoming the head of the two new committees [set up at the plenum], he has tightened his stranglehold on the reins of power," Chen said. "We still do not know enough of Xi to tell what he is about to do. He can go down the road of [the reformist former Taiwan president] Chiang Ching-chuo or he could become another [Cambodian dictator] Pol Pot."

The tortuous history of China's reforms seem to show that the quasi-superpower has yet to undergo tougher tests before it can hit upon a formula that will satisfy both the rulers' urge to control and the people's desire to liberate their production forces.

The reforms that has to be implemented by the present Chinese leadership will undergo another phase in the lives of over a billion Chinese citizenry. This may take a long while. For the time being Pres. Xi has to confront issues confronting its almost equal, Uncle Sam through its allies- Japan and South Korea when it comes to the disputed area in the East China Sea. But beyond this, there are also economic issues that has to be resolved between Washington and Beijing soon.

 The other side of the truth is out. According to Yu Hua (International New York Times, Dec.3,2013) in his latest article, "The Hijacking of Chinese Patriotism", Yu believed that a 'New China' is in the offing. Just like China's brewing war on Japan. He said that this fight has double meaning. "If we win , we get Diaoyu Island. If we lose, we get a 'New China'. Meaning China which communist party is no longer the dominant power.

 See how history is repeated by the 'super elites' without the complete knowledge of their leaders. Wars are all crisis by design to achieve their full control of the global governance. With the playing field controlled by a chosen few.

Art of War: ADIZ by Erick San Juan

Art of War: ADIZ by Erick San Juan 

China established an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)" effective as of 10 am on November 23. China's Ministry of National Defense also announced Aircraft Identification Rules for the ADIZ, which include a warning that "defensive emergency measures" would be adopted to respond to aircraft that refuse to follow the instructions.

 

All nations have the right to establish reasonable conditions of entry into their territory. An ADIZ is a declaration of a perimeter within which unidentified aircraft can be intercepted and prevented from illegally proceeding to enter national airspace. It serves essentially as a national defense boundary for aerial incursions. There are no international rules or laws that determine the size of an ADIZ. Over 20 nations have an ADIZ, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan in the West Pacific. ADIZs typically are much more extensive than a country's territorial airspace. (Source: China's ADIZ undermines regional stability by Bonnie S Glaser)

 

Another move by Beijing – by establishing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in East China Sea last November 23, it has also created a very tense situation that made the neighborhood really nervous in the process.

 

But a lot of observers are wondering why the hell Uncle Sam is furious with this move by Beijing while in reality ADIZ is not a new specie. There are existing ADIZs around the world including the mighty America and of course, Japan. So what else is new?

 

Could there be another reason? Here is what we found out posted at Information Clearing House (December 1, 2013)-  The escalation of military tensions between Washington and Beijing in the East China Sea is superficially over China’s unilateral declaration of an air defense zone. But the real reason for Washington’s ire is the recent Chinese announcement that it is planning to reduce its holdings of the US dollar.

 

That move to offload some of its 3.5 trillion in US dollar reserves combined with China’s increasing global trade in oil based on national currencies presents a mortal threat to the American petrodollar and the entire American economy.

 

This threat to US viability - already teetering on bankruptcy, record debt and social meltdown - would explain why Washington has responded with such belligerence to China setting up an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) last week extending some 400 miles from its coast into the East China Sea.

 

Beijing said the zone was aimed at halting intrusive military maneuvers by US spy planes over its territory. The US has been conducting military flights over Chinese territory for decades without giving Beijing the slightest notification. (Dollar Survival Behind US-China Tensions by Finian Cunningham)

 

So it is still economy, hmmm…. But if not handled with cooler heads, this planned escalation in retaliation to the Beijing’s ADIZ can actually snowballed into a regional conflict that will drag other allied nations from both sides and will end up into a global war.

 

Like what the blogger, with the pseudonym The Saker wrote – “First, imagine just for a second that the Chinese had shot down the two US bombers. Then what? Would the US, which did not even have the balls to strike Iran or Syria, attack China? The US for sure could not go to the United Nations Security Council for support where they would be laughed out from the council chambers by both Russia and China and, probably most other members too.

 

So, did the Americans count on the Chinese doing the right thing? If that is the case, then the only message sent to Beijing is "Look, we are irresponsible and reckless, and we count on your sanity". This is most unlikely to impress anybody in China. Second, now that the Chinese did the smart thing and ignored the US alleged stupidity, what has this move achieved beyond alienating China even further?

 

One really ought to know absolutely nothing about Asia to believe that you can impose a major loss of face on a superpower like China and not have to pay dearly for it. Pundits believe the big difference between the US and China is that the former acts like a spoiled teenager brat with an attention and memory span in the 5-10 minutes range: "The Chinese did not attack our bombers - that must mean that we taught them a good lesson!"

 

Wrong.

 

The Chinese will make you pay - dearly - for each such humiliation (and God knows there have been many such humiliations the past couple of decades - remember the Chinese embassy in Belgrade?), but they will make you pay on their own time, when they decide, and that could take literally centuries.”

 

There are too many flashpoints already in existence, and to add more to a very tense region could really put all of us in big trouble whether we like it or not.

 

The moral lesson of the story, don’t add more fuel to the already fiery situation like what our government officials are saying. Let us be vigilant and put diplomacy and some expertise in geostrategy. May God help us all pass through this global hurdle involving the giants.