Tuesday, December 8, 2015

War by Design by Erick San Juan

What really happened in November 24 over the Syrian-Turkish border? What version credible enough to believe – Moscow or Ankara? What occurred then does not fit the usual line … and the rest is history… The shooting down of the Russian bomber by Turkey could just be the beginning of another mistake by humanity – a prelude to world war. Is history repeating itself? Or people repeating history?

Not so long ago, in September 11, 2001 through the leadership of former US President George W. Bush jr, the global war on terror (GWOT) started after the terror attack at the World Trade Center in New York. Bush said the famous line ‘you’re either with us or against us’ in the fight against terrorism.  And the bogeyman at that time was Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terror group.

After almost two weeks now, the Russians’ effort to stop the terror group ISIS/ISIL by bombing Syria was somehow aborted by Turkey, by shooting down the Russian bomber. And so the question – is Turkey against Russia in its effort in fighting the terror network ISIS/ISIL?

In his article Stumbling to War with Russia? by Pat Buchanan (posted at townhall.com Nov. 27, 2015) – “Turkey's decision to shoot down a Russian warplane was a provocative and portentous act."

"That Sukhoi Su-24, which the Turks say intruded into their air space, crashed and burned -- in Syria. One of the Russian pilots was executed while parachuting to safety. A Russian rescue helicopter was destroyed by rebels using a U.S. TOW missile. A Russian marine was killed."

"A stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorists," said Vladimir Putin of the first downing of a Russian warplane by a NATO nation in half a century. Putin has a point, as the Russians are bombing rebels in northwest Syria, some of which are linked to al-Qaida.
Security analysts believe that it is impossible to believe Turkish F-16 pilots would fire missiles at a Russian plane without authorization from President Tayyip Recep Erdogan. We must ask: Why did the Turkish autocrat ok'd it?

Why is he risking a clash with Russia?

Answer: Erdogan is probably less outraged by intrusions into his air space than by Putin's success in securing the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, whom Erdogan detests, and by relentless Russian air strikes on Turkmen rebels seeking to overthrow Assad.
Imperiled strategic goals and ethnicity may explain Erdogan. But what does the Turkish president see down at the end of this road?

And what about us? Was the U.S. government aware Turkey might attack Russian planes? Did we give Erdogan a green light to shoot them down?

These are not insignificant questions.

For Turkey is a NATO ally. And if Russia strikes back, there is a possibility Ankara will invoke Article V of NATO and demand that we come in on their side in any fight with Russia.
And Putin was not at all cowed. Twenty-four hours after that plane went down, his planes, ships and artillery were firing on those same Turkmen rebels and their jihadist allies.
Politically, the Turkish attack on the Sukhoi Su-24 has probably aborted the plan to have Russia join France and the U.S. in targeting ISIS, a diplomatic reversal of the first order.
When provocation and miscalculation happen in a region where tension is very high, retaliation will occur and might lead to a regional conflict and maybe a war on a global scale.
“President Vladimir Putin said Turkey's shooting down of a Russian military jet was a war crime and that the Kremlin would punish Ankara with additional sanctions, signalling fallout from the incident would be long-lasting and serious.

Putin, who made the comments during his annual state of the nation speech to his country's political elite on Thursday, said, Russia would not forget the Nov. 24 incident and that he continued to regard it as a terrible betrayal.

"We are not planning to engage in military sabre-rattling (with Turkey)," said Putin.
"But if anyone thinks that having committed this awful war crime, the murder of our people, that they are going to get away with some measures concerning their tomatoes or some limits on construction and other sectors, they are sorely mistaken."

"Turkey would have cause to regret its actions more than once, he said, promising Russia's retaliatory actions would be neither hysterical nor dangerous.”

Leaders around the world are saying their piece towards peace and probably de-escalation of tensions between Turkey and Russia and one of them is Zbigniew Brzezinski, a prominent geopolitical strategist and a former US National security advisor.

"Putin blew out some steam but subsequently began to talk about coping with the problem. The Turks proved to be resilient and tough but without exaggerating the collision. … So in effect the parties to this unfolding drama have become more reasonable," Brzezinski observed. "But I think it was quite lucky the shoot-down in Turkey was not done by us."
The Cold War hawk is also quite optimistic when it comes to relations between Washington and Moscow, which many describe as no less than the second installment of the Cold War. These tensions, according to him, are "serious but not fatal."

"I may be naïve but I think this is one of those situations in which the stakes are not that dramatic," Brzezinski noted.

In fact, the analyst believes that major powers could well move beyond the Su-24 incident, put aside their differences and focus instead on finding a solution to the Syrian conflict since they have a shared interest in regional stability and would prefer to avoid confrontation in other areas.

"In effect, we might be on the brink of some progress among the major powers regarding not just the Turkish-Russian skirmish, but towards some salutary accommodation regarding containment of wider regional violence," Brzezinski noted. (http://sputniknews.com/politics)

For whatever its worth, regional tensions are building up but cooler heads will always be around to neutralize tensions and work out their differences. May God guide all world leaders to value human lives and to do their best to avoid wars by design.

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