Economics of War and Peace by Erick San Juan

"Business as usual in unusual times" was the punch line and the theme of the business forum hosted by the Manila Times at the Dusit Hotel in Makati City the other day.

The forum was a success with the former President Fidel Ramos as the main speaker.  To name a few popular personalities like Rodger Baker, vice president for East Asia  and Pacific of the Stratfor Global Intelligence, former Secretary Bobby Romulo of AIG Insurance Inc., NEDA Sec. Arsenio Balisacan  and Wang Yang, head of commercial affairs of China Embassy in the Philippines as other resource speakers.

The forum aimed to lead in intelligent brainstorming on how to do business in both China and the Philippines thus avoiding frictions between the two nations, crafting mutually business relations and assist both government leaders reconcile their differences.

Instead of political bickerings with economics in mind, saber rattlings can be averted and it will be a good prescription for peace and prosperity.

Rodger Baker of Stratfor and Richard Cant of Dezan Shira &Associates explained how they help in identifying opportunities, make strategic decisions, manage risk and how to establish operations in the region.

The input in this forum could be a wake up call to 'hawks' and 'chicken hawks' here and in China that peace is still achievable through regular dialogue and economic bilateral agreements.

The forum could be of help to President BS Aquino III, in time for his trip to China next month to attend the APEC international conference in addressing sensitive issues like the joint exploration of gas and oil in the contested areas in the South China Sea.

The perceived hindrance is the 'big brother'. Will the American government permit it? Despite the knowledge of the world that we are treated like a territory of the US, the Filipinos  nowadays have awakened to the issue that most of our leaders have been known to be 'stooges' of Uncle Sam.

We are treated not as a co-equal and always shortchanged because of our colonial mentality plus most of our leaders are allegedly blackmailed to follow orders.

We never contested our treaties with the US. We signed the MDT(Mutual Defense Treaty) with the US on August 1951 in Washington DC. Despite the agreement that both US and the Philippines support each other especially if there's an external aggression, it's only the Philippine congress who ratified the treaty, not the US. Making the treaty a one sided agreement.

What was not told was how the Philippine senate was gypped to vote against the extension of the bases. The truth of the matter, an expert volcanologist, Dr. Kelvin Rodolfo, accurately predicted the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo years before it happened and saved the nuclear armaments and the US military arsenals stored at Clark and Subic base.

The worst, the Senate won in ousting the Americans without asking them to leave some of their weaponry to secure us and gave our AFP military capability to fight and protect our nation.

When the volcano stabilized, the need for basing right was revived and initiated by some pro-American legislators. In the guise that we are defenseless against external attacks, the Visiting Forces Agreement was approved by then President Joseph Estrada, one of the signatories in the ouster of the US bases.

To circumvent our constitution which prohibits the permanent basing rights of foreign troops, the VFA initiators played with words saying the presence of the US troops is on a rotational basis, plus the usual community assistance like medical, construction and civic actions.  

The problem lies with the  lopsided deal that just in case of foreign aggression, there is no assurance that the US will automatically act to support and fight for us.

I have seen how other nations handled the US bases in their homeland. A so called 'house rules' should be respected like what the US military is observing in the former Southcom. Thanks to the DND's constant monitoring and proper communication with it's counterpart.

What went wrong? The Nicole rape case and the Jeffrey Laude, a transvestite killed in Olongapo  by a drunk US Serviceman in a motel should be a lesson to our government.

Proper coordination must be made before hand especially with local government units to be strict and should not give permits to bars and restaurants acting as sex exchange if we want to be respected by these visitors.

DND Sec. Voltaire Gazmin claimed that abolishing the VFA as initiated by Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago will hurt our security. Do we have a choice? Especially now that China is flexing it's muscle and bullying us?

I prefer the Manila Times agenda that adheres to 'politics begin and end in economics' and have peace.

The Clock is Running Out by Erick San Juan

The Clock is Running Out by Erick San Juan

Cal Thomas of Townhall.com made a scary essay of what's going in and out of the USA. He said that some Americans refuse to watch the news on TV nor read the newspapers these days especially that the headlines are depressing and no one seems to be in charge.

The stock market is erratic, rises and falls, the Ebola virus is widely disseminated 24/7 for unknown reason, now infecting many people including American nationals, while the Obama administration pretends there isn't anything at all to worry about.

The ISIS who are known to be Muslims which Thomas believe is something to worry about because it's activity is very brutal and UN-Islamic killing not only Christians but Muslims too. The worst, they are state sponsored warriors recruited from all parts of the world as part of several military contractors operation.
Drudge report exposed that hackers are plotting big banking hit. I still remember that hackers worldwide have their usual annual international convention in Las Vegas.

The emerging chaos is so depressing that the world according to Thomas appears to be falling apart and America resembles 'Humpty Dumpty' after the fall, with no leader to put it back together. He recalled that the US used to lead the world in wealth, might, technology and innovation. What went wrong? He added that today, China just eclipsed the USA as the world's biggest economy.

This list of national dysfunction he mentioned doesn't even begin to address the US government's intrusion into the people's privacy, police actions using military weapons and threats.

Even the blog-economicrant.com commented that the big banks are now manipulating the price of gold and silver. Something huge is happening. There has never been a divergence like this in the history of metal trading. It confirmed the rumor that something massive is going on behind the scenes.

It reported that the ISIS/ISIL hoax is an excuse to destroy and attack Syria plus the Neocons are flirting with World War III.

The Fed allegedly has 50 times more of overprinted dollar than 100 Years ago. The dollar is not even backed by any precious metal. Half of all American households receive a monthly government check while the other half supports them. Meaning the Americans support the other half mainly seniors and unemployed. This is reportedly the tipping point and an end time wrong prescription.

The government is perceived to be broke and will allegedly 'rob Peter to pay Paul, but Peter is out of money.' The situation could lead to anarchy, martial law and FEMA camps in the process.

Real estate is collapsing like a virus not only in America but in the world. Many who used to be homeowners are now mere renters. The entire stock market is ready to crash. Thanks God that a planned crash last October 20 was aborted because experts are aware of the crisis by design.

The worst assessment was  reported by the Wall Street Daily.com. Floyd Brown justified that the US empire is crashing down and the alleged culprit is President Barack Obama. He said that Obama brought the US to the edge of ruin. It's no longer a conspiracy theory to wonder out loud if Obama wants America to fall. The president's decision is allegedly becoming more irresponsible. His administration could possibly be preparing for it's grand exit and with all intentions of taking everyone down with it.

Just like any leader that I know, most of them are beholden to their political financiers and these 'reptilians' are the known manipulators working behind the scene controlling presidents and leaders. They dictate the policy of a nation and if a leader defy their order, the authority to rule is taken back immediately either by assassination, destabilization or force resignation.

This is the reason that the world is in turmoil. The clock is running out especially for corrupt leaders who taught that they can get away with their crimes.                

Be vigilant!

Global Revolution by Erick San Juan

Everyday since the globalists invented the 'war on terror' and the man-made diseases like the HIV-AIDS, flu virus, avian flu,  H1N1, the Ebola,etc which are all stage managed crisis, we are bombarded 24/7 by many believe as 'fearmongering' spin. The CNN and the western media seem to be part of the scare bogey showing the ongoing regional wars in the middle east with ISIS, a known state sponsored terror group (who wants to install a Islamic caliphate but killing Muslims) as the main operator. Most of them are not even Arabs nor Muslims.

Just like in the movies, the Ebola virus contamination was like the movie, Contagion, The Zombie and the 24/7 TV series 'Walking Dead'. The Ebola scare is not yet a pandemic but we're told that there's no cure. Sounds familiar!

Even the World Bank President Jim Kim talked about the seriousness and the slow response of the world community to the alleged lethal Ebola virus.

Even our own DOH(Department of Health) was propped to propagate the awareness regarding Ebola and the need for vaccines. We were told by the representative of the WHO that there's no cure for Ebola. So what is the vaccine for? There's even a clamor from the WHO to recruit volunteer health workers to be deployed in Ebola devastated nations like Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.

Why expose our 'kababayan' to the disease? Despite the protective gears given to foreign health workers few died.   Aren't you wondering why is this happening? Why such weaponized viruses allegedly made in special labs are emerging all at the same time?

And worst is coming soon according to Tyler Durden's New Normal. He said that if Ebola will be a pandemic in America, the State of Public Health Emergency will allow bureaucrats to detain and force-vaccinate people without due process.

Last week, the global financial executives through the IMF had a meeting in Washington DC. But what was told to the media was not about the global economic problem nor solution to it. They talked about the ISIS and Ebola plus the focus on China as the world's no.1 economy today. Is this a deja vu of 'Et tu Brutus' ?

Remember how these same cabal said that Soviet Union will soon be the no.1 economy in the world and after several years collapsed in November 1989?

By reading the articles of some economic columnists like Ben D. Kritz of Manila Times in his recent article-"Hints of Trouble for Asia's Bustling Economy" and my fellow Rotarian Den Somera of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, wrote an article, "Scarier Days Ahead", you can smell rat in what's really going on in the world.

Even our friend, Boo Chanco of the Philippine Star said that despite the hype that China is now no.1, others insist that it will be sometime before China actually overtakes the US in raw terms, not adjusted for purchasing power. China is still more than $6.5 trillion lower than the US and isn't likely to overtake for quite some time.

Daniele Scalea, editor in chief of Geopolitica Journal wrote that there's a great challenge going on and the US attempt to maintain world power and the present relationship between Russia and China is an imposing competitors to the US.

He added that the US strategy after the fall of Soviet Union was to prevent rivals from growing strong by strengthening the US military power in key locations adjacent to the energy resources of the Middle East. Beth Day Romulo of the Philippine Panorama October 12,2014 confirmed that the plan of the US to shrink  the military are now unlikely to happen because America is fighting so many fronts.

Giulietto Chiesa cautioned that America's desire to control global resources creates a situation that gets increasingly dangerous with time.

Scalea explained that the establishment of the Greater Middle East Project by the Bush Jr. administration was to impose America's influence throughout the Middle East  and maintain economic and political domination by controlling the borders in the region, which is central to Europe, Eurasia, Russia, East Asia and Africa. The US policy is reportedly to neutralize any threat from Russia.

Political analyst Francois Marshall claimed that the attack in Afghanistan was not in the interest of counter-terrorism but for the purpose of establishing military bases in the former Soviet satellite states to limit the influence of Russia.

Political activist Ginette Skandrani cautions that with China and Russia regaining strength in the world market, it is questioned whether the US attempt to dominate through globalization and TPP will neutralize Russia and China's growth. Or are we on a course of conflict or a mutually assured destruction!

As what Robert Kaplan of Stratfor  predicted that the world is now in a super chaos mode. Anarchy and chaos are everywhere as told and a global revolution is in the offing. Scary indeed....

I would like to congratulate a good friend, Don Pepe Rodriguez, former director of Instituto Cervantes who recently launched his book, Front Pages of Philippine History at the Raffles hotel. "Felicitacion!"

The Burn Out Umbrella Revolution by Erick San Juan

As the old saying goes- " Promises are made to be broken." I still recall the turnover of Hong Kong to China by the British with the battle cry of "One nation, two systems. What went wrong?

Suddenly, thousands of yuppies and students have taken over the main streets of Hong Kong demanding promised reforms, want free, fair and not dictated elections plus a universal suffrage to select government officials. It was part of the condition before the handing back of Hong Kong to China.                                        

At the early stage of mass actions, there were two popular analysts-columnists that confirmed that the Occupy Central or the so called Umbrella Revolution won't spread and doomed to fail, namely, Zachary Keck of the Diplomat.com(MCT) and Adam Minter of Bloomberg.                  

Keck said that the Occupy Central is doomed to fail and the Beijing and Hong Kong's SAR will not accept the protesters demands. Beijing views free and fair elections a threat to one-party rule of China including it's satellite Hong Kong. It deemed the Occupy Central as illegal and cannot compromise on issues that it views as threats to its survival.                    

Keck added that during the time of Deng Xiaoping, China liberalized politically and economically but Deng viewed it as necessary to bolster the party against threats both domestic and foreign. Economic modernization became the guiding principle of Deng's regime and he encouraged the Chinese to learn from the west economically but not the west's liberal political model. Keck believed that Deng was also ruthless like Mao in silencing his critics. A violent crackdown would have a significant economic repercussions on Hong Kong and China but just like what happened at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, they have to arrest the students and sent the protesters in jail.          

While Adam Minter opined that the Chinese government will never take chances and have to clamp down the protesters. The Chinese authorities postponed the inevitable by refusing to address the legitimate grievances and used proxy to counter the 'yellow ribbon' of protesters with the 'blue ribbon' of pro Beijing supporters. The Beijing authorities also clamped down social media, blocked Instagram and regulated mainstream news.                                            

According to Minter, relations between the mainland and Hong Kong Chinese have been tense and complicated for several years now. The divisions are deep and widening.                                              

The People's Daily, China's communist party mouthpiece even warned that 'if matters are not dealt with according to the law, Hong Kong will fall into chaos.' Qiushi, a forthnightly magazine of China's Communist Party said that blindly copying western style democracy can only bring disaster just like what's happening in the middle east.                                    

Reuters reported that China is also facing separatists unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang. Beijing is fearful that calls for democracy in Hong Kong could spread to the mainland.                                          

Sudhir Shetty, World Bank's chief economist-Asia commented that the World Bank was closely monitoring the protests in Hong Kong which could damage its economy as well as China's. Paralyzing major streets for more than a week could lead to a stand off and slow growth.

China has been very suspicious of the Americans. Tony Carlucci of Global Research  confirmed such when he exposed that the US now admits it is funding "Occupy Central" in Hong Kong. He cited the US admission of masterminding the so called "Arab Spring", training, funding and equipped both mob leaders and armed terrorists to destroy Arab leaders perceived as corrupt dictators. It is now reportedly admitted that the US State Department through a myriad of organizations and NGO's is behind the so called "Occupy Central" in Hong Kong. Even the Washington Post reported that Hong Kong protests erupt as China tighten screws on civil society which Beijing suspected of carrying out the work of foreign powers.                                

The programmed collapse of China has been projected since June 2002. Gordon G. Chang of New Jersey  even wrote a book- The Coming Collapse of China. But why did the west won the Soviet disintegration through the chopping of the Berlin wall in November 1989 which I witnessed and seem to fail in Hong Kong's Umbrella Revolution?                      

Soviet's Gorbachev during that time collaborated with the west which easen the unification of East and West Berlin and the downfall of USSR. While China is dictated by a hardliner President Xi Jinping who in pundits assessment will not give in to any challenge to his rule.

That made the difference....

What Went Wrong? By Erick San Juan

Why are American netizens fighting the American government? One example is a publication by John Kaminski of therebel.org. In his article entitled: 'Making War on the World is a War Against Ourselves', he said that many ordinary people have no idea about what's really going on. He asked if peaceful co-existence is impossible or are human beings, predators who must dominate and exploit neighbors in order to survive and prosper?

Kaminski believe that one thing is certain,'Americans' have to pretend that they're reasonable  people, provoking revolutions and lying to their citizens at home as to why they're doing it."How else could the U.S. fund homicidal maniac rebels known as ISIL and then send American jets to bomb them?", asked Kaminski.

Sound familiar! It was exposed by Fox News at You Tube recently in their interview with former State Secretary Hillary Clinton that they (meaning the US government) permitted the creation of Al Qaeda and other Mujahideens to fight as proxy.

Kaminski was saddened by the Americans seemingly unable to grasp the fact that their prosperity is based on the sale of weaponry and the creation of political realities that necessitate the use of these weapons in order to maintain their financial viability as they rob other countries of their valuables. He added that the American people are also unable to grasp that these wars don't benefit American citizens but only the behind the scenes financiers who invent them.

According to Kaminski, "Throughout its history , USA careened from one war to another, to the point where US troops are now stationed in 150 countries around the world and armored vehicles patrolling its major cities. America's infrastructure is disintegrating, it's people can't find jobs and judging by its huge purchase of hollow point bullets, the US government plans on shooting a lot of people soon."

Methinks, it remained to be seen. But when I was in the US recently, I found out that many Americans don't want to join the military anymore despite the usual benefits given to them.  Many returned after a war mission with trauma, injured or got cancer due to depleted uranium. This was the alleged reason why the Pentagon is now recruiting warriors through private contractors like the Blackwater, etc. It's also being rumored that these contractors were behind in creating 'state sponsored terrorists' like Al Qaeda, Abu Sayyaf's and now the dreaded ISIS group.

Kaminski explained that before the US ever began its world wars of the 20th century, it had ravaged the underdeveloped parts of the Western hemisphere and East Asia, capturing Spain's possessions around the world and supplanting Great Britain as the empire on which the sun never set.

He added that the Americans have no clue about this history or about the century that followed where 'wheeler-dealers' took control of the American war machine, produce weapons and carnage unequaled in the annals of human history.

He stated that throughout the past century and fast forward today, there has been a seamless progression of constant wars with virtually no period of peace that we can see in either our recent history or our calculable future.

Despite the support of strategic thinkers from the East West Center or the Shangrila Dialogue in neutralizing and understanding global conflicts, it seems that wars are inevitable due to some greedy super elites controlling the military-industrial complex and politicians manipulating and inventing events to create global conflicts.  They even manage to change the war lingo of world war into 'global revolution'.

He queried if we will ever stop fighting and making war on people whose resources we want to 'steal' before everyone is dead. It has been the sorry signature of all the empires of recorded history.

"They spin catastrophes these days faster than you can process them. The latest Israeli slaughter in Gaza was quickly erased from the news cycle by the neocon coup in Ukraine, the shootdown of the Malaysian jet and now the sudden creation of a new bunch of rebels IS in order to renew the attack on Syria, all crafted to a background beat of one false move that could spark World War 3, if the Russians take the bait, which apparently they will not. Or at least they haven't yet.", Kaminski disclosed.

Kaminski stated that all too often, we ask ourselves what we really know about a certain crisis, we are forced to shrug our shoulders and wonder what is real. "The same is true of the 911 tragedy, for 13 years, the US  has blamed mysterious Muslim terrorists for airliner attacks on New York City that NEVER happened, but which enabled America to begin its state sponsored wars on the world. Fake news, perverted ideas. False reports, fictional quotes, planted witnesses, posturing politicians, bogus pretenses, urban legends, malicious propaganda will confirm who runs the world?"

Kaminski concluded that  there's a worldwide cabal of financial manipulators working behind the scene. But most Americans surely don't know. They still think that Hillary Clinton vs Jeb Bush will be an interesting debate as they are merely the poseurs of the day posturing on how to steal your money.